Phils, Mayberry go Singin' in the Rain against D-backs, win 4 - 1
by RememberthePhitans on Aug 19, 2011 12:49 AM EDT
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On Jewish Heritage Night, the Philadelphia Phillies hosted the Arizona Diamondbacks for an evening of baseball featuring Ian Kennedy and Vance Worley. With Carlos Ruiz out with an altogether unfortunate contusion, the Phillies were undermanned. In subtraction to Chooch, they were down Shane Victorino and Ryan Howard. Placido Polanco is still injured, and Raul Ibanez is in an Ice Age again, so he hardly counted, right?
And the Phillies were sending out Vance Worley against Cy Young pretender Kennedy, who is having a really great season. And Arizona is a division leader. Truly a game of lowered expectations for the Philies, right? Right? The team with the best record in baseball as underdogs? Say it ain't so! Not in 2011, folks. This team is just magnificent. How sweet it is right now.
Tonight's story was, after the depleted lineup for the Phillies, probably the weather, which tried to sabotage things. Things got underway fine, but after three innings, some droogs kicked in the door, duct taped Ian Kennedy, put a ball gag in Kirk Gibson's mouth, and sang a few choruses of Singin' in the Rain. You can Youtube the fun version, but I'm not linking it from here. Before the rain, though, the Phillies did just fine against Kennedy, scoring one run in the second on a pair of doubles by the unlikely dynamic duo of Ibanez and Valdez. In the third, John Mayberry hit his tenth home run of the year, driving in Jimmy Rollins. Going into the lengthy rain delay, the Phillies had a 3 - 0 lead, as Vance Worley pitched three solid innings, surrendering no runs.
Bullpennery ensued. Both teams had effective outings from a variety of pitchers, with only 1 run allowed by each team the rest of the way. The Phillies saw innings from David Herndon, Michael Stutes, Antonio Bastardo and Ryan Madson. Stutes gave up a solo homer, and that was that. Rather than breaking down each Phillies pitcher, perhaps just giving the cumulative line would be better, including Worley: 9 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 10 K. That is ace-worthy, folks. And it makes me happy!
On a final note, there were requests for a full report from joecatz on the line of Raul Ibanez this evening. This may be the false dawn, since Ibanez was 2 of 4 with 2 doubles and an RBI. But maybe not.
Prepare your ballots for the "How Many Wins the Phillies Will Have in the Regular Season" Pool, coming soon.
Fangraph of Gladness!
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Hopefully now people will start to recognize how truly good David Herndon has been lately. He mowed the D-Backs down in a very key role with Worley bounced because of the 2:17 rain delay and allowed the Phils to hold their lead into the late innings. I’m sick of arguing with people who insist that he sucks.
by GTPinNJ on Aug 19, 2011 12:53 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
people will still say he sucks…it takes a good while to change preconceived notions born of ignorance
31 and counting...
by DirtyWaters on Aug 19, 2011 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Like Madson from 2006-2010
We got the 4 aces for baseball, 3CBO in football, and the Russian Walls in hockey. Philly is no longer the blue collar losers, were primetime baby!
Good game, Lets eat
Uh…ignorance? Up to his first trip to the minors in 2011 he had a career WHIP of 1.68, a career slash line of .325/.385/.474 (including a sterling 1.088 OPS this season), and a career WAR of -0.3 (in 75 IP)…and all that accomplished despite a platoon advantage nearly 20 percentage points higher than the league average. If that didn’t qualify for “sucks”, you’ve got awfully high standards for that term.
True he’s been outstanding the past month, and TGP posters deserve credit for recognizing that his unusually strong secondary stats suggested that he might turn things around. But let’s not get carried away, particularly since even after all his fine pitching of late he’s still lugging around a career 1.45 WHIP and 0.1 WAR.
…he’s still lugging around a career 1.45 WHIP and 0.1 WAR.
…not to mention a .328 career BABIP. With a .300 BABIP, his BA against would be .269 and WHIP 1.34 (Madson’s career WHIP is 1.29).
You may have seen these already, but in case you hadn’t…
A Little Perspective on David Herndon
David Herndon is a better pitcher than Mike Stutes
-------
Celebrating over 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1961-2011
Thanks, I did see those (and in fact I got into a bit of a kerfuffle with a TGP regular in the comments section of one of them.)
Bottom line is this: a .300 BABIP is the career mean for that stat, and its standard deviation (for pitchers) is around .017. Herndon is a little more than 1.5 sd’s above average. About one in ten pitchers will post a career BABIP of .328 or higher. The stat is useful for predictive analysis because its s.d. is unusually low. But many statties mistake BABIP for a purely random variable with a mean of 0.3 — that is, all pitchers will ultimately regress to a .300 BABIP. And that’s just not true; some pitchers truly do give up hits on 32%, 33%, 34% of their balls in play over thousands of trials, and some give up 28%, 27%, or even less. Remember, there are no, zero, zilch, nada pitchers currently inducted in the Hall Of Fame with a career BABIP over .300.
the point, I think, is that Herndon last year was a guy who the Phillies took a gamble on, but who really should have been in the minors… he showed enough last year, despite the high BABIP and overall high numbers, that the could develop into a decent pitcher (and, for what it’s worth, he did seem to be the victim of an incredible amount of shitty luck, but I’m not trying to quantify that with recourse to his BABIP).
OK, they get through the season with him, he comes to Spring training with some better secondary stuff, but then stumbles out of the gate. Getting hammered, leaving his sinker up, in a way he didn’t even do last year. He looked awful and gave off horrible body language, like he didn’t know what to do and his confidence was shot. He’s sent down, and then is recalled a while later. Since then, he’s been by and large very effective, he’s missing bats, getting his typical grounders, and the results have been good too. Of course, it’s still a small sample size, but for relievers, especially young relievers, it almost always is (how large is Bastardo’s sample this year?).
So, we’re stuck looking at a combination of how he looks on the field since his recall, combined with his vastly improved results AND peripherals, and some of us are inclined to say he’s a very useful reliever to have. Now, your point that his previously high BABIP cannot simply be dismissed as “bad luck” is well taken (maybe he’s just not a major league pitcher, right?), but it seems to me that all pitchers stats combine games in which they are going good and get hit, games in which they’re going good and don’t get hit, games in which they leave a bunch of ball out over the plate and don’t get hurt, and vice versa, etc…. given Herndon’s performance since his recall, it’s not unreasonable to conclude that luck played a factor in his prior bad results (though, again, maybe he just shouldn’t have been in the majors last year), and that those early bad results are clouding the general perception of him, since, after all, they still go into his averages, making them appear much worse than his apparent ability
That sinker is why he was worth keeping, it was his secondary stuff that needed some polish and that just required some patience.
It’s clear that that that that fellow wrote bothered him.
by essman on Aug 19, 2011 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
We liked Herndon before it was cool!
by taco pal on Aug 19, 2011 1:20 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
his line since his first trip to the minors
22G, 29.2 IP, 7R, 6ER, 25H, 4BB, 24K, 1.82 ERA
WOW! Don’t have his more advanced statistics, but I can’t imagine they are bad with a WHIP under 1, 6 K/BB, and 7.28 K/9.
Friend's FB status:
David Herdon got a win??? Has hell frozen over? Great job by the bullpen. Phillies first to 80 wins.
The court of public opinion has no appeals.
"What's gonna happen is that you jerk off the ball. You almost want to let this guy here jam you, and if it comes, it comes." Gary 'Sarge' Matthews
by Senor Octubre on Aug 19, 2011 1:16 AM EDT up reply actions
The announcers on both radio and TV were both arguing that Herndon should have gotten the win in a recent game instead of Kendrick since the starter didn’t go 5 and Kendrick allowed a run and looked shaky as hell while Herndon was lights out.
Paying attention would help, I imagine. =p
It was even brought up on TV, IIRC. I can’t remember if Sarge or Wheels was the second man in the booth at the time, but they were behind it as well.
The Phillies are 24-3 in games in which Brian Schneider starts, including 16 consecutive victories.
Follow Bleeding Green Nation on Twitter & Facebook. Did you get your copy of the 2011 Eagles Annual yet?
I treasure my autographed Brian Schneider ball more than you fan possibly imagine.
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Aug 19, 2011 1:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Awww man, Michael Schwimer is the first Philly to tweet back at me. I asked if he was disappointed not to pitch on Jewish heritage night. His response: kinda. You heard it here first, folks.
Team comes in red hot having won 6 in a row and we hold them to 6 runs in the series and are a rare-as-it-gets Roy Halladay meltdown away from sweeping them.
This team is awesome.
Am Nnam Nnam Nnam.
by everybodyhitswoohoo on Aug 19, 2011 1:14 AM EDT reply actions
It’s nearly as awesome as this.
This is a rich vein of innerwebs meme-iness to mine. Haven’t revisited this one in a long time.
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Aug 19, 2011 1:16 AM EDT up reply actions
suggested edit
Team comes in red hot having won 6 in a row and we hold them to 6 runs in the series and are a rare-as-it-gets Roy Halladay meltdown all-too-common Charlie Manuel brain fart away from sweeping them.
Roy may have been placed in that position by Charlie, but he still did the meltdown thing on his own.
Crashburn Alley had an article about that infamous 9th inning:
http://crashburnalley.com/2011/08/17/more-9th-inning-shenanigans/
Might as well just hand them over.
by All ur Aces R Belong to Us on Aug 19, 2011 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Magic numbers are bittersweet.
Sweet for obvious post season reasons. Bitter because they’re like a countdown to the end of the season.
Nice to know that playing .625 ball for the rest of the season wins the division no matter what the Braves do.
31 is the magic number for the division, which will require .775 baseball to win regardless of competition.
I’ll set that one at “review in a couple weeks”. ;)
Well, I have to admit, that wouldn’t disappoint me. I’d also be fine with just another parade.
Bob.
by The Dark on Aug 19, 2011 12:49 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I wonder
if Chooch has a tattoo that reads, “”http://www.flickr.com/photos/jasonmichael/42724204/" >Allen H. Selig Commissioner"?
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Aug 19, 2011 1:36 AM EDT reply actions
Fail.
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Aug 19, 2011 1:36 AM EDT up reply actions
One thing I've learned in my time here...
Your first comment (or any comment for that matter) shouldn’t be critical unless you have very good objective (measurable) evidence (like stats) to back yourself up. You need to build a little rapport before you can make sarcastic critical comments. Would you go up to a group of strangers on the street and be like “you guys are all idiots” right out of the chute? No, you wouldn’t. I know this is the internet and all, but have some manners.
This isn’t exactly the best way to introduce yourself. That’s why you got Totally Snarked Out, man.
Just saying.
Let's go eat...a triceratops. /velociraptor'd
by LeepinLizardz on Aug 19, 2011 9:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Scott Mathieson
6.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 5 BB, 4 K, 1 HBP
25 BF, 7 GB, 1 LD, 7 FB (1 pop)
Jonathan Pettibone
5.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 0 HR
22 BF, 8 GB, 2 LD, 7 FB (4 pop)
Jesse Biddle
5.0 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 1 HR
19 BF, 2 GB, 4 LD, 6 FB
Perci Garner (first start of the season)
4.1 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K, 0 HR
17 BF, 6 GB, 1 LD, 4 FB
I hope Biddle’s relatively early exit is a sign that the organization’s decided to take it easy on him the rest of the year. How at 123.2 IP. Last year he had 43.2 in the pros + however many he threw in the Friends League.
Perci Garner!
\o/
I really need to get myself to a Williamsport game this year. Could maybe visit Reptiland too. Should wait until after the LL World Series though, I think.
Let's go eat...a triceratops. /velociraptor'd
by LeepinLizardz on Aug 19, 2011 8:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Obviously I was being sarcastic….if even one of you knew half of what Chahl knows about baseball I would respect your opinion…
This is literally the dumbest argument I’ve heard. Even the world’s smartest manager is going to be wrong some of the time.
"What's gonna happen is that you jerk off the ball. You almost want to let this guy here jam you, and if it comes, it comes." Gary 'Sarge' Matthews
by Senor Octubre on Aug 19, 2011 2:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Dude, you know nothing about being involved in the management of a hugely successful baseball team that is the industry standard. Come down to earth.
And you have no idea how to use the reply button.
by FearTheTurtIe on Aug 19, 2011 1:46 AM EDT up reply actions
It’s cool yo, but as a real fan I respect what the management of the team has done. I don’t purport to know more than people being paid millions of dollars in a highly competitive business where there is no charity.
Good point. I’m not actually a real fan so I guess I can dispute those things.
by FearTheTurtIe on Aug 19, 2011 1:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Are we talking about strategy or are we talking about “being involved in the management of a hugely successful baseball team”? Because I was talking about the former, and the latter, to the extent that it even means anything specific, sounds like something different. It’s almost as if you’re intentionally dodging my point because you know you don’t have a leg to stand on.
Success speaks for itself TP. When I see RH in too long, I know it is Chahl deferring to him as a vet ace. I don’t foolishly blame Chahl.
I didn’t realize that “deferring to Halladay as a vet ace” and being at fault were mutually exclusive concepts. If you don’t understand basic logic, you’re not going to get very far in persuading people of your points, regardless of whatever those points might be.
Well I am just expressing my thoughts, I am not trying to convince anyone of anything. But there is an “x-factor” called chemistry and this team has it and Chahl knows how to stir it. It isn’t all about what seems totally Spockian logical all the time.
So, deferring to Doc and losing one can be worth it in the long run. They are not mutually exclusive. No bad vibes, man I appreciate your passion for the team.
Thank you. That’s the concern here. Not that the Phillies lost one game in August. Rather, that it’s indicative of a larger problem in managerial philosophy which COULD (note the wording) backfire in October, where one loss is of far greater weight.
"What's gonna happen is that you jerk off the ball. You almost want to let this guy here jam you, and if it comes, it comes." Gary 'Sarge' Matthews
by Senor Octubre on Aug 19, 2011 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
You’re welcome. For what its worth I’m also in the “managers don’t win games but they do lose them” camp. Especially when it comes to Charlie. He dances with the devil way too often.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
Does he dance with the Devil in the pale moonlight?
"What's gonna happen is that you jerk off the ball. You almost want to let this guy here jam you, and if it comes, it comes." Gary 'Sarge' Matthews
by Senor Octubre on Aug 19, 2011 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Also, Charlie’s job is to remove Halladay from the game at the proper time not to “defer to him as a vet ace”
by FearTheTurtIe on Aug 19, 2011 1:53 AM EDT up reply actions
1) no it’s not 2) uh, no it’s not 3) removing Halladay from the game would not have a detrimental affect on “team chemistry”
by FearTheTurtIe on Aug 19, 2011 1:58 AM EDT up reply actions
And the next day, he pulled Lee early-ish for a pinch hitter who damn near hit the ball over the CF wall to score Valdez who himself almost hit the ball over the CF wall.
Sadly, since said PH was Francisco they were actually playing him deep enough to catch it, but still, runs and stuff. I’m still not sure that Valdez blast actually happened and I watched it on replay a ton. I’m still just inclined to believe that the entire world is just messing with me. =p
The difference between you and him is...
He actually MADE a point. Keep working on it. :)
You realize that you’ve given us exactly zero reasons to buy into your point, right? All you’ve got is (1) a bunch of bullshit speculation – no actual evidence, mind you, just pure speculation – that the move we’re criticizing might have been an “x-factor” that was needed for “chemistry” and (2) a philosophical assumption that if a manager is successful overall, then you can’t criticize any one particular decision or aspect of his managing.
That’s just dumb. Do you have any actual facts to support your point, or do you not?
There is a behind-the-scenes dynamic going on that we aren’t privy to man. I have logical extrapolations based on universal management principles. Not metrics…
Random Modern Art Appreciation Moment.
I haven’t a clue as to what an “a hockey” is. I do however, know what a Hockney is.
David Hockney. Lithograph of Water made of thick and thin lines and two light blue washes , 1980. Color lithograph on paper.
I like it. The color is luminous.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Aug 19, 2011 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
There are too many eels in that pool. Also the path is boiling. Also the vaguely Cthulhu-esque shadow is frightening.
But I like it.
Not jumping into that pool.
Might as well just hand them over.
by All ur Aces R Belong to Us on Aug 19, 2011 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think you’ll find many of us debating that there is some type of psychological group dynamic that Manuel has a role in managing. The issue is to what end does this effect the outcome of a game inwhich there is significant enough luck component that it necessitates a 162 game season for said component to average out. If you extend your line of reasoning to it’s logical end, Manuel could manage the Mets to a post season birth. The dynanic between skill and luck trumps the the effects of team chemsitry which serves more of an auxillary, supporting role.
His job is to manage baseball games and win. Making poor decisions that lead to losses cost us wins and don’t help your made-up chemistry category.
Can you show me a statistic that disproves my contention that the Phils win more games because of Chahl’s players appreciating his belief in them?
They have 80 wins because they have three legitimate aces, a damn good fourth starter, and a roster full of All-Stars and Gold Glove winners. NOT because of Charlie Manuel. Sorry to burst your bubble.
"What's gonna happen is that you jerk off the ball. You almost want to let this guy here jam you, and if it comes, it comes." Gary 'Sarge' Matthews
by Senor Octubre on Aug 19, 2011 2:24 AM EDT up reply actions
I mean, I wouldn’t go that far. I suspect Charlie does a lot of good things. The job is more than just on-field strategy. But on-field strategy is still part of the job, and some of his strategic decisions are just objectively wrong. I think the proper conclusion to draw when you see one of those objectively wrong decisions is that Charlie made a mistake, not that he must have been playing some kind of brilliant 11-dimensional chess that makes that decision somehow right despite all the actual evidence.
Eh. I’m of the camp that managers only lose games. They never really win them. There’s obviously no such thing as WAR for managers, but I think a replacement-level manager (i.e. someone who just goes about his business making the lineup, doing pretty predictable bullpen changes, etc.) would still be experiencing great success with this team at his fingertips. Look at Terry Francona. Put a good manager behind the helm of an excellent team, and he’ll find success. Stick him with mid-90s Phillies, and he’ll be the bane of the town.
"What's gonna happen is that you jerk off the ball. You almost want to let this guy here jam you, and if it comes, it comes." Gary 'Sarge' Matthews
by Senor Octubre on Aug 19, 2011 2:30 AM EDT up reply actions
I mean, sure, if you had a manager who started Wilson Valdez at 1B over Ryan Howard, or a manager who pulled Halladay, Lee, and Hamels after 3 innings every game, this team wouldn’t be an 80 game winner at this point in the season. But anyone with a conservative approach who doesn’t alienate his players could probably get a comparable performance out of this roster.
"What's gonna happen is that you jerk off the ball. You almost want to let this guy here jam you, and if it comes, it comes." Gary 'Sarge' Matthews
by Senor Octubre on Aug 19, 2011 2:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Not alienating your players may be harder than you think though. A lot of managers alienate a lot of players.
See also: Larry Bowa.
"What's gonna happen is that you jerk off the ball. You almost want to let this guy here jam you, and if it comes, it comes." Gary 'Sarge' Matthews
by Senor Octubre on Aug 19, 2011 2:36 AM EDT up reply actions
And when they get to the postseason, it wont be the chemistry that people remember if they lose. It’ll be the bonehead managerial decision to bunt, or leave someone in too long, or pinch hit etc.. that causes a loss and a chance at a championship.
It only takes one bonehead decision by Charlie to make that happen.
he’s got plenty of them in his back pocket.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
Hey, I’m totally talking out of my ass and spouting ridiculous nebulous bullshit that’s not at all grounded in reality.
Prove my bullshit doesn’t stink.
absolutely
but so is not being blinded by the past and being able to see what is happening in the now.
I could give two craps if Roy Halladay was 52-0 taking a lead into the 9th inning. and I guarantee Charlie didn’t know that.
He was done, Charlie made the wrong call, end of story.
The key is that it doesn’t happen, and Charlie doesn’t let it happen, again.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
I appreciate your passion on the issues. I really enjoyed your comments on the article by David Cohen today. What I don’t see, however, is that whatever expertise you bring to this site you should be lecturing a fellow fan about a decision on the field. Saying Charlie made the wrong call in your opinion is one thing. But you are telling BySaam (and me) that the call was wrong and that’s the end of the story. I am sure you know by now that Charlie knows his decision was criticized. I think he did a good job of explaining why he allowed Doc to stay in. And it is a different story in October than in August. You don’t have to manage every game now as if it’s the playoffs.
by phillyinportland on Aug 19, 2011 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Sorry, some of us believe in facts and objective truth. Opinions that are based on incorrect facts or incorrect logic are wrong. You seem to think that simply labeling your beliefs as “opinions” automatically means that their validity can’t be questioned – that an opinion can never be right or wrong, and we’re all entitled to express them according to our feelings. That is wrong.
If you have an argument as to why Joe is wrong and you’re right, then make the argument. But you shouldn’t lecture Joe about how he’s not allowed to criticize other people’s opinions. He is.
Point taken about criticizing others’ opinions. But you are saying the same thing to me that I was saying to him – don’t lecture someone about having an opinion. I don’t think I was unclear on that in my comment. As to your statement about facts and objective truth I don’t agree that there is an objective truth about this issue. You sound as if this an issue of black and white, absolutely no gray area involved. To me that is your opinion, and it is wrong.
I hope you will respect my right to disagree with you. And Joecatz, I hope you also will see that I value your opinions and was trying to take this down a notch.
by phillyinportland on Aug 20, 2011 4:44 AM EDT up reply actions
ISO-IADGE
So, it’s been exciting and heart warming to watch ISO-BERRY, a guy who was left for dead in the minors after his first cup of coffee what, like 2 years ago or something. Samples sizes iz sample sizes and these are just too small for me to start making an emotional investment as much as I’d like too. Obviously, he won’t keep this up but those more familiar with the minor to major league transition, are we seeing the birth of a legit MLB player?
I think it’s doubtful, but you never know. You don’t see many people follow that kind of career arc. But sometimes weird shit happens.
Mayberry does have one thing going for him in my mind, which is that he was a two-time first-round draft pick, so he’s been seen as having talent for a long time. It’s not like he’s some schmoe who was never even a prospect.
This is what makes it seem more likely that Mayberry may develop into a legitimate player despite his numbers. The fact that he probably has a significant amount of talent makes the possibility of “something clicking” much greater, in my opinion at least.
by FearTheTurtIe on Aug 19, 2011 2:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah. On the other hand, even former #1 picks rarely follow the career arc that we’re hoping for from Mayberry. But the odds are certainly better.
I’m usually pretty dismissive of prospects (moreso, at least, than most of the rest of TGP), but I’m starting to get pretty jazzed by the performance of Extra Bases Mayberry lately. He’s not hitting .450 or anything that would immediately indicate it as unsustainable, and he’s certainly an athletic enough guy to “evolve” his approach.
We might have a legitimate/everyday MLB player here.
If I may, I’d shorten it to XB-Berry (read as Extra Baseberry).
"What's gonna happen is that you jerk off the ball. You almost want to let this guy here jam you, and if it comes, it comes." Gary 'Sarge' Matthews
by Senor Octubre on Aug 19, 2011 2:32 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m thinking along the lines of a traditional “middle” nickname, ie, John ‘Extra Bases’ Mayberry.
For shorthand, though, I’ll go with Extra Baseberry. I like that.
How about John “Platoon Please” Mayberry?
"What's gonna happen is that you jerk off the ball. You almost want to let this guy here jam you, and if it comes, it comes." Gary 'Sarge' Matthews
by Senor Octubre on Aug 19, 2011 2:35 AM EDT up reply actions
But think about it- there is one open spot in the Phillies outfield next year- why not throw Mayberry and Brown in there and let them play for it?
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Aug 19, 2011 9:27 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Seriously?
Brown > Mayberry. Or, at least, Brown’s potential > Mayberry’s potential. He needs to be playing full-time, not competing with Extra Baseberry for time.
However, Mayberry > A number of other potential corner OFs, including, probably, the rare Streaky Ibanex.
Depending on how he progresses in LF, I don’t think its that much of a stretch to believe that mayberry will at the very least, be given the opportunity to COMPETE for the LF job in the spring. I would be shocked beyond belief, though, if Brown is not the starting LF in that scenario.
What scares me the most about what Mayberry is doing, though, is my irrational fear that Ruben will think Brown is expendable in the off season, BC of Mayberry, and trade him for a 3B, or “shudder” a shortstop and let J-roll walk.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
Yeah. But I think Brown’s safe from Mayberry’s rise here. There’s a reason Brown’s the one playing LF everyday at AAA, while Mayberry’s getting spot starts and pinch-hitting for extra bases.
I could see giving Mayberry opportunities in ST to compete for LF, but barring injury or epic collapse, I cannot see any result where Brown is not our starting LF in 2010.
Another thing that’s weird about him is that he doesn’t seem like the type to be a late bloomer (and this would be really late). Usually guys like that are raw guys who develop late because it takes them a while to learn the game and have their skills catch up with their natural talent. Mayberry’s background seems like exactly the opposite of the profile of the type of guy who would be raw: American. Son of a major leaguer. Played baseball his whole life. Went to an elite prep school with good athletic programs. Went to Stanford. Smart.
Could be as simple as a swing adjustment, TP.
Theres a guy in Toronto who kinda came out of nowhere and blew up.
Myaberry has a different swing since he came back up. Sometimes things just click. Look at Cliff Lee.
Mayb(erry)e we lucked into a click. time will tell.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
SIGN STEALING, SIGN STEALING
/s,untilihearallthefactsbutamresignedtoassumeespnisjustcreatingtroublethisislong
Might as well just hand them over.
by All ur Aces R Belong to Us on Aug 19, 2011 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Jayson Werth 2007 from June 1st through end of season (when he essentially took over in RF full time)
.305/.412/.460 5 HR 41 RBI 35 BB 57K in 64 games, 239 PA
John Mayberry, since being called back up this year
.307/.325/.693 7 HR 22 RBI 2BB 15K in 27 G 77 PA
he’s .263/.320/.503 with 10 HR and 34 RBI on the season, in just 72 G and 194 PA.
As a starter?
.267/314/.541 with 9 HR and 30 RBI in just 39 G and 156 PA.
stranger things have happened.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
I don’t know if it’s total bullshit or wishful thinking or whatever, but it could be that his new batting stance has totally changed his game. And therefore, it’s entirely possible to think he can produce like this for the long-term. (Obviously not as hot, no one’s THAT good, but…)
"What's gonna happen is that you jerk off the ball. You almost want to let this guy here jam you, and if it comes, it comes." Gary 'Sarge' Matthews
by Senor Octubre on Aug 19, 2011 2:25 AM EDT up reply actions
I think I mentioned this on here before, but I have this pet theory that a “market inefficiency” is former top prospects who never put it together and are now in or approaching their actuarial prime seasons. The Phillies may have benefitted from this approach with Mayberry, Werth, and if you go back farther, Ricky Ledee and Jason Michaels, just to name a few.
That Kenny Michaels CF platoon from 2005 was something else.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Aug 19, 2011 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
That was like Lee Thomas’ signature move. He had many faults as a GM, but he was really good at that thing. Ed Wade learned from Thomas and Ruben learned from Wade.
Michaels wasn’t an ex top prospect though. The Phillies drafted him and he was never rated that high.
Ones that panned out: Tommy Greene, Curt Schilling, Jose DeJesus (until injury), Terry Mulholland, David West (until injury)
Ones that didn’t: Jeff Juden, Bobby Munoz, Sil Campusano, Shawn Boskie
Low risk, high reward.
Not all of these guys were necessarily top prospects, but they were all highly rated enough at one time to be listed in prospect guides, and their original organizations had soured on them.
I had been under the impression that Ibanez had 3 hits today. I assume they made a scoring change on one of them?
12 series to go
2 vs. each of the 4 East teams (8 total)
4 vs. Central (@CIN, @MIL, @HOU, vs. STL)
0 vs. West
That Central schedule looks somewhat imposing from here. Though I’d like nothing more than to remove some of that luster on Milwaukee’s home record.
Might as well just hand them over.
by All ur Aces R Belong to Us on Aug 19, 2011 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions
larry greene sez
I used to be a Braves fan, but not anymore. I used to be a Chipper Jones/Andruw Jones fan when they were playing together.
http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=18165351
This Aaron Jersild is a scary looking dude. Like a really angry Will Ferrell.
“BUT NOT ANYMORE.”
Heart you, Larry Greene. Welcome to the org. I hope you don’t get traded!
Let's go eat...a triceratops. /velociraptor'd
by LeepinLizardz on Aug 19, 2011 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Herndon Wins
This was his first win of the year, second of his career. Both of his wins are against Arizona. This one was a lot cleaner and will surely be appreciated more, since his other win was one where he blew a hold for Hamels, fell behind by a run, and was bailed out by the offense re-taking the lead later that inning. If there is some poetic justice to his win in relief of Worley it might come from the fact that Herndon lost a game earlier this season where the game was interrupted after three innings with the Phillies leading, 3-0. Not really his fault that time – Polanco booted a grounder with two outs in the 11th inning. Herndon’s other loss this year also came in an early relief appearance, to Boston, when Cole Hamels was hit in the hand and had to leave after four innings.
by phillyinportland on Aug 19, 2011 5:00 AM EDT reply actions
I'm working on an ibanez streak fan post update
Sorry I wasn’t around last night, took the wife out to dinner, got home in time for the rain delay, and fell asleep waiting for the game to start again.
But the jist is this:
Prior to last night (12 games that felt like 23) 49 PA .133/.184/.178 3bb 7k 0 hr 5 RBI.
After last night (13 games, 53 PA) .163/.207/.244 3 BB 8K 0 HR 6 RBI
He’s had many 2 hit games in the middle of cold streaks, but last night was the first multiple extra base hit game in a cold streak…
He’s due to break out during the REDS series, but based on his numbers career wise against Volstadt and Vazquez, and the fact that they both follow each other in the marlins rotation, look for him to break out a few games early, during the marlins series next week.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
This reads like the technical analysis you see for the stock market. Just odd. And I actually have faith in its validity, even though there is no reason a 100 AB cycle should exist, unless Ibanez has some sort of strange circadian rhythm or an urge to return to the sea or something. Does he go to the Sargasso Sea to breed? Return to the beach of his birth? I mean, WTF?
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Aug 19, 2011 6:28 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
In the first series.
If they stay on rotation we’ll get Volstadt on August 4th, which is, coincidentally, my new and updated HOT STREAK D-DAY.
Fanpost is up.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
Smug Update
In the dugout before the game, as Ruben Amaro Jr. provided updates on the long list of injured players, the general manager was asked if he’d like to add a lefthanded reliever or bench bat.
“Would we like to have a perfect team?” Amaro responded rhetorically.
He snickered. It’s hard not to argue that this is as close – on paper – as you can get to one.
by EastFallowfield on Aug 19, 2011 7:23 AM EDT reply actions
That’s incredible. Well said, Smug One.
Let's go eat...a triceratops. /velociraptor'd
by LeepinLizardz on Aug 19, 2011 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Interesting though overly pessimistic take on the Pence trade: Trade Targets Separated At Birth: Pence/[Rondell]White
Celebrating over 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1961-2011
comments point out some issues with the comparison: Pence actually has one more year of team control than White did; White already had an injury history at that point.
plus, it strikes me as odd to seemingly pick a 10-year-old trade out of a hat to compare the Pence trade to, unless Rondell White was literally the only time in the last decade that a team made a midseason trade for a 28-year-old outfielder.
(I say all this as a confirmed Pence trade skeptic. the post just seems to draw tenuous conclusions.)
by perfectdepth on Aug 19, 2011 8:23 AM EDT up reply actions
To quote myself before yesterdays game:
“I’ll be shocked if Philly wins tonight”
Consider me shocked!!
Any word on Howard and Ruiz for tonight’s game?
there we go
1. Jimmy Rollins 6
2. John Mayberry Jr. 8
3. Chase Utley 4
4. Ryan Howard 3
5. Hunter Pence 9
6. Raul Ibanez 7
7. Carlos Ruiz 2
8. Wilson Valdez 5
9. Roy Oswalt 1
Well
Didn’t go as well as I’d planned for the Diamondbacks, but not as badly as I’d feared, honestly. Good series, hope to see you guys again in October!
"Never ignore a coincidence. Unless you're busy, in which case always ignore a coincidence."
Go take care of those lovable underdogs in San Francisco, my friend.
"What's gonna happen is that you jerk off the ball. You almost want to let this guy here jam you, and if it comes, it comes." Gary 'Sarge' Matthews
by Senor Octubre on Aug 19, 2011 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
It’s a shame the rubber match was marred by the T-storms last night. Games often seem to lose their flow after those lengthy delays. Both ’pens pitched admirably (esp. Herndon), but I would have like to see Worley/Kennedy duel a bit longer.
by FanSince1993 on Aug 19, 2011 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
OT, Astros Release Nelson Figueroa
-------
Celebrating over 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1961-2011
More Astros maneuvering
Astros Place Rodriguez, Myers on Waivers
-------
Celebrating over 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1961-2011
I got a ball from him in Pittsburgh two years ago
It's only gonna get funner
by VanceinmyPants on Aug 19, 2011 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Pence Hitless, Phillies Win
First time that happened. Now covered all possibilities,since Pence had a hit in the game the Phillies lost on Tuesday.
by phillyinportland on Aug 19, 2011 6:54 PM EDT reply actions
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