Phillies' Pitching Probables (Aug. 1-7, 2011)

Anti-fascist.

I forgot to post the probables chart last night, but here it is a day late (all stats are as of yesterday morning). This week features the first two legs of a 10-game Western Division road trip. Sadly, for yet another season, we will be deprived of a Hamels vs. Hammel pitching matchup.

On a perhaps less tragic note, we will also be deprived tonight of the long-awaited showdown of Kendrick vs. Giambi II: The Revenge of Kyle. (Giambi, of course, is currently injured.) By the way, the peripherals for tonight's pitching matchup are really eyecatching. In this day and age, how often do you see a guy with a 3.63 K/9 rate face off against a guy with a 2.96 K/9 rate? Kendrick is actually the bigger strikeout pitcher of the two!

Aaron Cook still induces a ton of ground balls, but a sub-3 K/9 and a sub-1 K/BB are just absurd. Historically, he's at least been in the high 3's in K/9. He's coming off some injury problems though, so maybe he'll still recover his form down the road. In contrast, I don't know what Jason Hammel's excuse is. He was a pretty good pitcher before this year, but his 2011 has been terrible. Halladay vs. Hammel = the pitcher with the second-best xFIP and SIERA in the league vs. the pitcher with the worst xFIP and SIERA in the league.

Day Pitcher G GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP GB% LD% FB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP SIERA
Monday Hamels* 22 22 152.0 8.29 1.78 0.47 .261 52.0 16.0 32.0 6.2% 2.61 2.51 2.83 2.79
Chacin 21 21 133.2 7.54 3.97 1.21 .223 56.7 13.6 29.7 16.2% 3.50 4.46 3.69 3.75
Tuesday Kendrick 25 10 79.1 3.63 2.84 1.02 .266 48.1 18.2 33.7 10.1% 3.52 4.76 4.60 4.70
Cook 9 9 51.2 2.96 3.66 0.35 .344 58.4 21.1 20.5 5.1% 5.05 4.18 4.56 4.63
Wednesday Halladay 22 22 162.1 8.43 1.05 0.50 .296 51.8 16.3 31.9 6.2% 2.44 2.23 2.56 2.55
  Hammel 21 21 127.2 4.86 3.60 1.06 .290 44.3 20.5 35.1 10.1% 4.65 4.73 4.58 4.76
Thursday Lee* 22 22 155.0 9.23 1.86 0.81 .305 45.4 21.2 33.4 9.9% 3.14 2.79 2.69 2.71
Bumgarner* 22 22 130.1 7.94 2.07 0.35 .338 45.6 21.4 33.0 3.9% 3.80 2.49 3.14 3.22
Friday Worley 14 12 77.1 6.98 3.14 0.47 .242 40.5 21.8 37.7 4.8% 2.33 3.24 3.83 3.89
Sanchez* 16 16 89.2 9.23 5.92 0.60 .270 42.7 19.8 37.5 6.9% 3.81 3.98 4.25 4.27
Saturday Hamels* 22 22 152.0 8.29 1.78 0.47 .261 52.0 16.0 32.0 6.2% 2.61 2.51 2.83 2.79
Cain 22 22 145.1 7.25 2.29 0.43 .264 41.1 20.3 38.5 4.3% 2.91 2.90 3.59 3.57
Sunday Kendrick 25 10 79.1 3.63 2.84 1.02 .266 48.1 18.2 33.7 10.1% 3.52 4.76 4.60 4.70
  Lincecum 22 22 142.1 9.61 3.54 0.51 .287 49.6 18.6 31.8 6.9% 2.78 2.83 3.06 3.13

Some additional tidbits below the jump:

- More good news for tonight's game. It's always nice when you get to face the Rockies without Carlos Gonzalez in the lineup, but it's especially nice for Kyle Kendrick, who, as you all know, has a giantic platoon split (3.74 xFIP this year vs. R, 5.96 xFIP vs. L). Kyle will still have to deal with Todd Helton and Seth Smith, but the matchup will be just plain bad instead of horrendous.

- Jason Hammel's 2011 platoon split is only somewhat smaller than Kendrick's (3.96 xFIP vs. R, 5.33 xFIP vs. L).

- Shia LaBeouf lookalike Madison Bumgarner has been pitching really well lately (2.89 xFIP over the last 30 days). Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum really haven't been, peripherals-wise, including in their starts at CBP last week, although, of course, there are some who argue that Cain is a special case.

- Jonathan Sanchez's start on Friday will be his first since late June, when he went on the DL with bicep tendinitis. As in any game against Sanchez, it is imperative that the Phillies' hitters work the count, draw walks, and try to get Sanchez to beat himself. Sanchez replaces Barry Zito in the rotation. Zito put together some pretty good starts early in July, but had fallen on hard times more recently.

- There's a pretty good chance that Roy Oswalt will start Sunday's game in place of Kendrick (h/t philsfreak6 in the comments for the reminder). Oswalt made a second rehab start last night and declared himself ready after the game (autoplay link). If he pitches on Sunday, it'll be on six five days' rest.

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