Slumpbusters!: Phillies 10, Mets 0
by WholeCamels on Aug 22, 2011 11:35 PM EDT
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Nothing like a night with the Mets to work out the frustrations of a bad weekend on the road.
The Phillies piled on early and often, knocking Mets starter Dillon Gee out in the fourth inning on eight runs. The Phillies would tack on two more, Cliff Lee was ho-hum awesome again, and the Phillies rolled to a 10-0 victory.
The Phillies scored their first three runs in the second inning on an RBI single by Wilson Valdez, filling in for the now deceased Jimmy Rollins, and a two-RBI triple from Shane Victorino. They'd all but put the game away in the third on a line-drive two-run home run from John Mayberry, his 11th of the year in what's turning into a breakout campaign for the 27 year old. The Phillies would score three more in the fourth on a bases loaded walk to Mayberry, and a two-run single from Carlos Ruiz. Hunter Pence's two-run bomb in the sixth was the (merciful) end to the Phillies scoring for the evening.
Lee was terrific again, throwing seven innings and striking out seven, allowing three hits and walking three. He threw 105 pitches, and give Charlie Manuel credit -- a 10-0 lead was deemed safe enough to pull his pricey starting pitcher at a reasonable pitch level despite the complete game shutout still being in play. David Herndon, history's greatest monster, pitched two scoreless innings, allowing two hits and inducing a couple of double plays, to wrap this thing up.
Smell the Fangraph
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obviously this win comes because of Pence’s hustle and Lee being the greatest pitcher in Philles history.
/crossing broad’d
We got the 4 aces for baseball, 3CBO in football, and the Russian Walls in hockey. Philly is no longer the blue collar losers, were primetime baby!
Good game, Lets eat
by JpH89 on Aug 22, 2011 11:37 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
If you have not check out Twitter and Matt Swartz’s (@Matt_Swa) page tonight, do so. It’s one of the greatest things ever.
Writer at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
Ohh yeah, I was there live when the bomb dropped haha. To be fair though, Kyle is the biggest tool in the blogger community, so its not like this was surprising by any means.
We got the 4 aces for baseball, 3CBO in football, and the Russian Walls in hockey. Philly is no longer the blue collar losers, were primetime baby!
Good game, Lets eat
Can we have a separate gamer for the @Matt_Swa – @CrossingBroad heavyweight title fight knockout after the game?
It’s going to require years for historians to give an accurate review and analysis of what happened.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Aug 22, 2011 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I’ll make a call to Braylon Edwards. See if he’s available.
"I asked for Shaq. They gave me Shackleford."
www.whereisbenrivera.com
by Dave Rueter on Aug 22, 2011 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Here's my take...
Even though I am fairly new to most advanced stats in baseball (basketball is where I have a pretty good grasp of them), CB is getting owned.
It’s one thing to not have a great feel for stats, but if he’s mad at all the name calling his way he should probably stop calling anyone who knows what OPS+ is a “SABR Nerd.” In his world, if you ever heard what FIP is, you automatically have never been laid. What a tool.
by PhillyPhanatic20 on Aug 23, 2011 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions
How much money does Kyle Scott actually make anyway? Is it enough to get himself health insurance?
Where does anyone see Kyle Scott ending up in 5-10 years? Maybe he can luck out and get himself gainfully employed by a media company, John Gonzalez-style (it’s not like those two guys are particularly distinguishable from one another in any way). But I think that’s unlikely.
Given that his follower count is <10,000 and he’s not outclicking 700Level, I’d be surprised if his ad revenue topped 30 grand.
If he doesn’t, he won’t be the first Twitter warrior to be left at a taxi holding a little bit of himself.
by Wet Luzinski on Aug 23, 2011 12:26 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I do not believe so. He never mentions doing anything else. Would you pay him to be “irreverent” for you?
So assuming he rents, we’re talking what – $25000 after tax, minus $12000 in rent = $13000 of annual discretionary income, with zero benefits. Now there’s a high roller if I ever saw one. I’ll bet the ladies can’t keep their hands off of such a studly anti-nerd.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tL01-ys86uk
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Aug 23, 2011 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions
“I’ve got more hits than Sadaharu Oh…”
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Aug 23, 2011 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions
inspired youtubery. More hiphop videos should be like this.
by Wet Luzinski on Aug 23, 2011 5:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Woops – I forgot that he also has to buy food for himself. So we’re now talking about less than $10000 in discretionary income.
Well, then there’s utilities, internet (needs it to run his company), car payments/insurance (if he has a car), student loans, cell phone payments (he tweets so he has one)…doesn’t sound like much discretionary income to me. I made $20k 20 years ago when I was first out of college, had no student loans or car payments and could barely make it.
What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.
Good points. His internet would be deductible, but still.
Of course, your first job is still way higher on the totem pole than his. You probably had benefits, and a clear path for gradually working up the ladder in your field. He seems to me to have neither.
Well he could host Quizzo at Chickies and Pete’s eventually!
by PhillyPhanatic20 on Aug 23, 2011 12:55 AM EDT up reply actions
But he gives LECTURES and stuff…
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Aug 23, 2011 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions
The biggest problem I have is that I feel like he isn’t sincere in ANY of his beliefs, that everything he does and says is for “attention” and to promote his shitty site. If he can increase traffic by taking a contrarian position, let’s do it!
I’ve hated him ever since he called me out on Twitter when (I think it was taco pal) wrote a piece last year about Joe Blanton being “No. 2 starter material.” He said I was attention whoring. Let that sink in.
Also, when he couldn’t understand that Ryan Madson’s eighth inning “blown saves” shouldn’t be counted against him when compared to his successfully executed Saves. No understanding that set-up men rarely get actual Saves, but they can get blown saves, so it’s a stupid stat.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
Have there been any articles about swing or approach changes for Mayberry that have led to this success? I know he is crouched down with a little more open stance, but is that the reason for this breakout? He is clearly taking much better swings at breaking balls and doing a better job with the inside fastball as well. Anyone read anything about this?
29 and counting...
I have not seen any articles, but they mentioned it on the broadcast over the weekend. They said the change allows Mayberry to “clear his hips”, allowing him tondrive the ball better.
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Aug 22, 2011 11:48 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
is that a line drive hit a ton?
29 and counting...
by DirtyWaters on Aug 22, 2011 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I just think he’s settled down at the late now, and has gotten use to ML pitchers. I mean, he probably has around just as many at bats as Brown for his career.
We got the 4 aces for baseball, 3CBO in football, and the Russian Walls in hockey. Philly is no longer the blue collar losers, were primetime baby!
Good game, Lets eat
Phils target 16 yr old Venezuelan
6’2" Toolsy OF prospect…per MLBTR & Salisbury…repost from the end of the game thread
29 and counting...
he’s about as 16 as I am toolsy.
Welcome to the City of Brotherly Love, now GTFO
by Veni Vidi Vici on Aug 23, 2011 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions
that fangraph is a thing of beauty. 36 games for Atlanta to make up 8 in the loss column, or 9 to pull ahead. They’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there, but Bandit thinks it can be done.
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Aug 22, 2011 11:51 PM EDT reply actions
Our Bullpen is our weak spot! Oh noes!
Nah but seriously. Good for them.
"They say that nobody is perfect. Then they tell you practice makes perfect. I wish they'd make up their minds." - Wilt Chamberlain
Fun fact: Since the end of June, the Phillies’ bullpen has been better than the Braves.
I would probably still take the Braves’ bullpen if forced to choose, but there’s a non-absurd argument to be made that as of August 23, 2011, the strongest part of the Braves team is weaker than the weakest part of the Phillies team.
WPA by reliever
Bastardo/Madson
Venters/Kimbrel/O’Flaharty
If the Phillies’ bullpen is a weak spot, then it’s a pretty awesome weak spot. The Braves have some great pitchers in their pen, but the dropoff to Madson/Bastardo isn’t exactly scaring me.
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Aug 23, 2011 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh yeah, the link
http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/14195
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Aug 23, 2011 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
For as awesome as Madson and Bastardo have been, along with Herndon and even Lidge in recent weeks, I’m still a little worried about middle relief in the long run. We saw in the playoffs how relievers can be exposed, so I worry about what will happen in a similar situation.
Welcome to the City of Brotherly Love, now GTFO
by Veni Vidi Vici on Aug 23, 2011 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Another way to look at this is how much the Braves’ big three and Madson and Bastardo have been used. Good relievers will accumulate WPA. If they pitch all the time then they will accumulate more WPA until they break. Gonzalez and Manuel are nothing if not eager consumers of bullpen arms.
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Aug 23, 2011 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions
They have a decent chance to win the division, but barring catastrophic collapse, the wild card is theirs. Okay.
by Wet Luzinski on Aug 23, 2011 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions
As a Yankees fan who lives in Philadelphia
I was actually all right with not signing Cliff Lee. After his playoff failure last year, I wasn’t really excited about the Yankees signing him to a long-term, high dollar deal. However, I was dead wrong. You guys have a great man in Mr. Lee and he’s going to be a huge bonus to this rotation for years to come. Look forward to meeting you in the postseason! World Series, baby! ~Yankees fan
Eh, you're probably right.
Feeling slightly jealous of you guys, though. He’s quite the addition for any team. The fact that he’s joining Halladay and Hamels just makes it that much better.
So his comparatively bad performance in the World Series last year overshadowed his utter ownership of the Yankees both in the 2009 World Series and the 2010 ALCS?
http://www.thegoodphight.com
Sounds like she had a bout of schadenfreude, perhaps understandable during the World Series. It also sounds like she’s enjoying Cliff’s success now, which is admirable for a Yankees fan.
by phillyinportland on Aug 23, 2011 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not a huge fan of postseason chokers
so, despite his past success, I didn’t want him choking for the Yankees come October. Like I said, though, I was dead wrong. You have a fantastic competitor in Lee and he’s an amazing person as well. I wish him all the best in Philly. However, I hope he has a change of heart and joins the Bombers for a season or two. : )
by yankeesgirl on Aug 23, 2011 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Sir. Mix. A. Lot.
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Aug 23, 2011 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Magic Numbers
For playoffs: 21
For Division/Home Field Advantage: 29
For best record in Baseball: 33
Welcome to the City of Brotherly Love, now GTFO
by Veni Vidi Vici on Aug 22, 2011 11:57 PM EDT reply actions
That was a lovely game. 17th shutout, and everybody got a breather at the end.
A couple quick thoughts: Pence’s walk rate since joining the Phillies is something like 14 percent, roughly double his career figure. If he keeps even a chunk of that gain, he’s going to be a monster for this team.
And I’m officially on board the Herndon train. That he’s getting swings and misses now while maintaining that groundball rate is pretty exciting. At the least, he’s looking like a less homer-prone Durbin with better control.
Also: CLIFF LEE
Was just talking about this with my buddy at the game. Seems like Hunter has been getting more discriminate with his hacks since arriving and taking a lot more close pitches. Wonder if that is Charlie’s influence or just random variance.
herndon
I didn’t see anything from Herndon last year to lead me to believe that he had better than replacement level bullpen stuff. In the brief time that has been this season, he’s been ever worse.
You can boil it down to that, but its not what i said, because i said i saw NO potential last year. … Last year he looked like a bad reliever who lacked a good out pitch (read ‘potential’) This year he looks worse.
So in 4 years when herndon is a good contributor and not out of baseball or shuttling back and forth between aaa and mlb….thump your chest then.
He’s not good. He’s not going to be good.
It is a shame that idiot has since been banned. I would really like to read what he has to say now on the matter.
Writer at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
I had a few facepalms with Herndon, but I have always thought he had good stuff.
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Aug 23, 2011 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions
The FuquaManuel smug meter is currently reading “RADIOACTIVE GLOW”.
Sabermetrics work, people. Deal with it.
The Good Phight, NotGraphs, fun!
don't forget these, FM
Most pitchers will fall in the normal range but a few will stubbornly remain on either tail. I suspect that Herndon is one of them; he has excellent stuff, but when he makes a mistake with a pitch it’s usually a whopper, and the ball gets pulverized, by air land or sea. Might it be simply an extended run of bad luck? Could be. Might it be a combination of bad luck and bad pitching? Having watched DH for two years, my money is on that.
Still, assuming a .300 BABIP average, it also means that about two-thirds of all pitchers will have a career BABIP of .284 to .316…and that one-third, of course, will fall outside of this range. Those are the numbers that any individual variable – in this case, David Herndon – should be compared against, not the .290-.310 range of seasonal means.
But history also tells us that one out of every 50 ML pitchers will post a BABIP that high over the long run. Only purely stochastic variables will ultimately regress to the mean given enough trials; biased variables will not. Bottom line: Although as a Phillies fan I certainly hope otherwise, having watched Herndon give up rockets for the better part of two seasons, I’m far from confident that his spot in the 98th percentile is unearned.
Hmm, I don’t remember these. Where are they from?
by philsandthrills on Aug 23, 2011 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Weird, I remember that thread but must’ve totally missed that part.
by philsandthrills on Aug 23, 2011 1:19 AM EDT up reply actions
I wish I knew why these people hate Herndon, of all people, so much that they are willing to go to Abreu-hating lengths in their rejection of any and all objective evidence that contradicts their pre-conceived notion that Herndon sucks.
The Good Phight, NotGraphs, fun!
My guess is that believing in the existence of one truly terrible arm in the bullpen better allows for the belief in a bunch of other great arms. That is to say, if Herndon’s in the game, Charlie is saving Stutes, or Bastardo, or really anyone, such that Herndon becomes the negative enunciation of the other pitchers’ abilities. Happened with Zagurski, too — it’s easy to believe in the quality of a bullpen when you have a scapegoat for that pen’s flaws so easily at hand.
I think it really is just about first impressions, as you argued in your post on Stutes/Herndon. Most sports coverage is all about jumping to conclusions and making big sweeping generalizations and pre-writing the narrative. So a guy has a rocky start and some media types make Final Judgment on the guy, and it takes an extraordinarily long time to overcome. Same deal with Dom Brown, or so it would seem.
They saw perceived struggles last year and early this year. Therefore, he sucks forever more.
Writer at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
I was at the game tonight and literally had that very thought about Pence’s walk rate. For a guy who had a pretty bad walk rate before the trade, he sure seemed to be walking quite a bit in a Phillies uniform. I am glad to see this was not just perception on my part.
Writer at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
He seems to love the high fastball
Bob.
by The Dark on Aug 23, 2011 12:30 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
JC Ramirez
5.1 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 4 BB, 2 K, 0 HR
25 BF, 7 GB, 3 LD, 9 FB (3 pop)
Lisalberto Bonilla
6.0 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, 0 HR
25 BF, 10 GB, 0 LD, 10 FB (2 pop), 1 SH
Lino Martinez
4.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 4 K
16 BF, 3 GB, 1 LD, 4 FB
Dom Brown with a double! Suck it haterz
by Wet Luzinski on Aug 23, 2011 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions
But he’s only batting .179 in Lehigh! Clearly he’s never going to be any good!
/s
by Airedale260 on Aug 23, 2011 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions
My family is loving Dom Brown’s poor batting average in Lehigh. Ugh.
All I can do is tell them to be “patient” with Brown. He is only 23. Utley was 25 when he entered the majors. Dom Brown is a project and will need a few years to develop.
I honestly do not know why I try anymore. It’s not like they listen to a word I say on the matter.
Writer at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
I get it at work a lot; I don’t sweat it (though most of it is my coworkers just busting my chops).
As long as Ruben doesn’t do anything too stupid, things should be fine.
Of course, now watch him make a Wright-for-Brown trade, straight up…oy.
by Airedale260 on Aug 23, 2011 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions
So I’m kind of concerned about this Mayberry surge. Chances are, it isn’t “for real for real,” but it might trick the team into doing something unwise regarding Brown this offseason.
Mayberry is 27. Brown is 23.
I’d like to have both on the team, with Brown as a starter and Mayberry a 1st choice back-up, but if it must be between one and the other, I am not sure how Ruben could see Mayberry as a better long-term investment than Brown. In spite of some of the rumors, nothing Amaro has actually said or done would lead me to believe he is giving up on Brown and is a few months away from something incredibly dumb.
Writer at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
I think the power is real. He’s always been able to hit the ball hard. He’s definitely improved his strike zone judgement, as well as his pitch recognition. I think he profiles as 3-4 win player given a full season of ABs.
As long as something stupid isn’t done w/r/t moving Dom in the offseason, having a backup centerfielder capable of playing everyday is a great problem to have.
Also, I just can’t think of an actual need that would necessitate moving Dom. Unless Ruben gets the hots for David Wright.
With Ruben its never about NEED. its about WANT. He rarely makes a move based on pure need.
There are a lot of crazy scenarios out there, that could put Brown into play. What if the Marlins decide to dangle Hanley Ramirez? Seattle wants to unload King Felix? The Dodgers decide they can part with Kemp or Ethier?
Not saying any of those scenarios can or will happen, but I think the point that TP and others are worried about (myself included) is that Mayberrys surge could make Brown semi available for the “right player” who, in reality, is probably the wrong player.
my ultimate dream scenario is one where Rube locks up Pence for 3 years fairly cheap, Mayberry is for real, Brown crushes it, and he trades PENCE.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
FTFY
my ultimate dream scenario is one where Rube locks up Pence for 3 years fairly cheap, Mayberry is for real, Brown crushes it,and he trades PENCEall are kept and the Phils go on to crush teams to win multiple World Series.
Hunter Pence will not guarantee a WS, but, then, neither does Carlos Beltran.
Moving Brown now would be asinine. I can’t believe Rube would do something that foolhardy. Is this Deadliest-of-all-Berries-Mayberry legit? Too soon to tell. Probably not. Almost certainly not at his current production rate.
That said, I’m perfectly happy to ride the hot bat into the postseason until the wheels fall off (while hoping against hope that we another polished Victorino/Werth just clawed his way out of the turd pile…)
by Chutley's Impressed by Mac's Speed on Aug 23, 2011 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions
I might get ripped for this, but I’ve been curious to see how for real Mayberry is. Obviously Dom is a better long term investment as he’s much younger and I love Dom brown and would hate to see him traded. I just am curious to see Mayberry’s ceiling if he was given more regular at bats where he was safe and secure from being sent down or back to the bench.
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Aug 23, 2011 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah I did the safe and secure bit intentionally.
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Aug 23, 2011 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions
It’s my hope that Mayberry is “for real” and then we have options to consider when Shane’s contract ends, assuming Mayberry could play a legit CF in 2013.
Or maybe find an unlikely suitor for Ryan Howard and his huge contract. I’m not saying I believe Mayberry is or will be a better first baseman than Howard, but there’s a possibility he could be a more valuable one.
I also don’t really believe any team would take on Howard’s contract in a trade, but dumber things have happened.
Wouldn’t count on it. Also, John Mayberry probably isn’t a league average 1B anyway.
by philsandthrills on Aug 23, 2011 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Mayberry is more or less taking the role that most people projected Francisco to play. I hemmed and hawed a bit about Mayberry last year being better than the AAAA tag he was carrying around, but not strenuously. The data I was looking at were point-in-time comparables to Utley w/r/t OPS.
by Wet Luzinski on Aug 23, 2011 5:51 AM EDT up reply actions
its a curious case for sure.
the most interesting thing about Mayberry so far is that on the season, with more AB vs. RHP than LHP, he shows virtually no splits. Very very minimal. If you isolate it from his call up, after being sent down, its even more telling, because hes better against RHP, believe it or not.
The rub has always been his inability to hit righties….
As far as doing something unwise this offseason, I don’t see that happening. I could see them dangling Mayberry, perhaps, but I’m more concerned that if mayberry keeps it up through next summer, It’ll be an issue at the deadline again.
If you really think about it, it really could not have gone worse for Brown since his call up last year in any way. Between the mismanagement last August/September, the Winter ball fiasco, the broken Hamate bone, The Pence signing, and Mayberry couldit have been any worse for him?
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
If Joe Blanton was a stock, I’d be kinda broke.
by philsandthrills on Aug 23, 2011 1:05 AM EDT up reply actions
Joe Blanton’s recent injury history as CEO.
Hunter Pence will not guarantee a WS, but, then, neither does Carlos Beltran.
Just got around to watching DNL from today. Murphy chastised Hayes for saying he didn’t trust Madson and Bastardo down the stretch. Murphy says “you’re going to judge him on 1/162th of the season? You’ve been covering football too long.”
LOLs.
What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.
I have a hard time deciding who’s the worst: Hayes, Gonzo, RickyBo…am I forgetting anyone? All of them make me apoplectic.
What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.
CONLIN!!!!!!!
Formerly... "You don't have to be sweet, to be good"
by Ed Van Chimp on Aug 23, 2011 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Not one mention of the old Good Phight favourite, Borg Herndon?
It's in his wheelhouse!!
Carlos Ruiz, My Nickname is Chooch.
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