Should Clayton Kershaw win the NL Cy Young Award?

by yosoysean on Sep 21, 2011 7:12 AM EDT

After tonight's dominance over the Giants, it seems that the talking heads are already handing Kershaw the Cy Young. Why shouldn't they? He's tied for the league lead in wins and leads the NL in ERA and strikeouts. The pitcher's Triple Crown. It's pretty clear that when you put very little thought into it that Kershaw should win the Cy Young. Looking deeper into the stats tells another story.

The most obvious flaw is looking at the hard ERA number without even considering park factors. Dodger Stadium has been one of the most extreme pitchers parks for several seasons while Citizens Bank Park has been neutral for the past few seasons. If you compare what Kershaw did away from home in 2011 to what Halladay and Lee have done things start looking a little worse for the Dodger.

Kershaw: 2.90 ERA, 1.086 WHIP, 4.59 K/BB
Halladay: 2.41 ERA, 1.045 WHIP, 6.38 K/BB
Lee: 2.38 ERA, 1.015 WHIP, 5.31 K/BB

Another argument I've been seeing for Kershaw is about the quality of the teams. Kershaw seems to be getting some sort of degree of difficulty bonus for doing what he's doing on a team that's barely above .500. The Dodgers' offense is worse than the Phillies' so his 20 wins is more impressive than anything that Halladay and Lee have done, right?

Wrong. While at first glance it seems that Kershaw is at a disadvantage, he's actually getting about as much run support as the Philly duo. The Dodgers score an average of 5.46 runs per game when Kershaw starts. The Phillies average 5.69 runs per game when Halladay starts and 4.92 runs per game when Lee starts.

Looking deeper into the stats it appears to me that the player most deserving of the NL Cy Young Award this year is none other than our own Cliff Lee. I doubt that will be the case though. I really can't see voters voting against a guy who is leading the league in wins, ERA, and strikeouts.

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I guess you can consider this a more succinct and updated version of the Cy Young race from a few weeks ago.

"Miami can’t beat Chicago, why? Because Chicago has everything Miami has and more.... I’ll grant you Wade/James stealing a game, or maybe two. But we’re seeing an OKC/CHI finals, and that’s a finals everyone will tune in for." - LeQuan Glover

by yosoysean on Sep 21, 2011 7:15 AM EDT reply actions

As much I’d love it for Halladay or Lee to win it, Kershaw would by no means be a poor choice. It’s not like they’d be losing to Steve Bedrosian or Bartolo Colon. Kershaw is awesome, and has been stellar. Voters may loosely consider stuff like ballpark and strength of schedule, but it’s going to be tough for them to overlook a likely pitching triple crown winner, however flawed ERA and W/L undoubtedly are.

by yolacrary on Sep 21, 2011 9:41 AM EDT reply actions

My ranking would be
1. Halladay
1.5. Kershaw
2. Lee

I don’t think any of the three would be a mistaken vote—Doc should win, I think, but it’d be hard to begrudge any of them.

by Phrozen on Sep 21, 2011 12:37 PM EDT reply actions

Kershaw is separating from the group in his traditional stats, which will almost certainly win him the award. There aren’t enough FIP/xFIP/SIERA savvy writers/voters to tilt it for Halladay.

In any event, I don’t really care that much.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Sep 21, 2011 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Actually, Jim, I agree with the Governor on that as well.

by Phrozen on Sep 21, 2011 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions

I care only to the extent another Cy Young (or more) could affect Halladay’s “indelible mark” for the Hall of Fame assuming he is here long enough to possibly be considered to enter the hall as a Phillie.

by Boundforbeach on Sep 21, 2011 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Realistically, I kind of think he should go in as a Blue Jay regardless.

by taco pal on Sep 21, 2011 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Unless he wins three or more Cy Young Awards in Philly and multiple World Series.

In other words: Unlikely.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Sep 21, 2011 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, it depends on how long he stays with us. If he puts in six years or more, I think he’s got a good shot either way.

by Phrozen on Sep 21, 2011 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Even then, who cares? Are people going to forget he played for the Phillies, if he goes in with a Blue Jays cap? Do we get some kind of cash reward for players entering with Phillies caps? If Doc gets in, I don’t care if they slap a Washington Senators cap on his head. It makes no difference to me.

by Cormican on Sep 22, 2011 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, there’s a sense of pride in having a Hall-of-Famer weat your team’s cap on their plaque, which is definitely worth something unquantifiable.

by Phrozen on Sep 22, 2011 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions

In that case, I think all the more that the Blue Jays should get him. Their attendance hasn’t been very good over the last decade, but nobody can question that they really loved Halladay, and they developed that sentiment while he was developing from a mere prospect. I don’t think Phillies fans deserve to have the pride that you allude to as much as Blue Jays fans do. How hard was it for Phillies fans to root for Halladay? He came here when he was already at the peak of his career, when the team was great.

by taco pal on Sep 22, 2011 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, unless Doc is the Phils’ ace of aces for several more years (4-5+?), this shouldn’t even be a conversation. If he gets to 300 wins, wins a couple championships, maybe another no-hitter as a Phillie, then it should be a discussion.

Really, though, I think it should be up to him, rather than the Hall. So what if Wade Boggs wants to wear a Devil Rays’ cap. It’s his plaque!

by Phrozen on Sep 22, 2011 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions

We’ll agree to disagree on that. I’m proud of Mike Schmidt regardless of cap. I’ll be proud of Halladay no matter the cap, and I’ll be proud he was a Phillie. It’s not like that gets erased. I understand your point, I just don’t think it’s a big deal.

by Cormican on Sep 22, 2011 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, I didn’t say there was a lack of pride if the cap is different. It’s just a slight bonus, that’s all. A reason to care, if you will.

If Doc goes in with a Jays cap, I won’t be suddenly less proud of his tenure as a Phil, not by any means. I didn’t mean to give that impression.

by Phrozen on Sep 22, 2011 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions

It’s close enough that I’m perfectly fine with Kershaw winning it. Lee, Kershaw, and Halladay all have SIERA’s within .10 of each other (2.58, 2.61, 2.65) so at that point it’s pretty much a toss up. I’ll be kind of annoyed if Kershaw sweeps out the first place votes or something ridiculous, but I have no major complaint with him winning it now.

by philsandthrills on Sep 21, 2011 5:29 PM EDT reply actions

I like Kershaw as a Pitcher, but part of me would be kind of bummed to lose it to a Dodger.

by Cormican on Sep 22, 2011 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions

The answer is yes.

by jibbers on Sep 29, 2011 2:57 PM EDT reply actions

Lee should have it

He’s been consistently dominant. His string of shutouts alone should have sealed the deal. I know Kershaw’s been good, and I can understand him winning it, but the stats they’re using (strikeouts aside) don’t sit well with me.

I mean, if you give the Cy Young to one of the best pitchers that year, Kershaw can win it. But if it goes to the BEST National League pitcher, Cliff Lee has it without an argument.

It's in his wheelhouse!!
Carlos Ruiz, My Nickname is Chooch.

by Dr. Steve on Sep 30, 2011 9:30 PM EDT reply actions