Pence, What Is He Good For? Absolutely Nothing! (Say It Again)
by David S. Cohen on Sep 21, 2011 9:46 AM EDT
Email
PrintI guess the title isn't entirely true. Hunter Pence is great for entertainment value. He is kind of goofy, he seems like a good guy who other players enjoy having around, he melts faces, and he does odd things with his limbs in the midst of playing baseball. That's fun, and fun is good.
But in terms of making a difference for the Philadelphia Phillies? Well, Hunter Pence hasn't. Not one bit.
Through last night's game, Hunter Pence has been with the Phillies for 49 games. Here's a simple comparison of the basic team metrics for the 49 games with Pence and the immediately preceding 49 games without Pence.
| Without | With | |
| Runs Scored | 226 | 225 |
| Runs Allowed | 154 | 150 |
| Record | 32-17 | 32-17 |
Trust me, there's no funny math here, no Bernie Madoff accounting, no wishful thinking from those of us who thought the Pence trade was unnecessary. The simple cold truth is that Hunter Pence's addition to the Phillies' lineup hasn't changed its offensive production one lick. His addition to the outfield hasn't changed the Phillies' run prevention in any significant way either. And his overall addition has not improved the team's record at all.
Sure, he's put up better numbers than the previous right-fielders. Here's a basic comparison of the Phillies' right-field production in the 49 games before Pence and the 49 games with Pence.
| Right Field | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI |
| Without | 0.227 | 0.325 | 0.372 | 5 | 17 |
| With | 0.325 | 0.391 | 0.539 | 9 | 28 |
But, as much as that is definite individual improvement, it clearly hasn't translated to any difference for the team. Which was exactly the point that those of us who were skeptical of trading for Pence were making - this is a great team, and it was great before Pence joined it.
We feared the trade would be unnecessary. The team's performance since Pence's trade backs that up.
324 comments
|
1 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Eh, this is a little selective, given that the most recent 11-15 games have dragged down that 49-game average considerably. It’s easy to say that the average with Pence in the lineup was bound to come down, but the comparison is still iffy, because of the quantity of recent games the team largely doesn’t care about, employing a series of patchwork lineups with considerable bench and AAA filler.
Was Pence necessary for this team to get to the post-season? No. They were already going. Will he be helpful to have in the post-season? Probably. Was the trade only about this year? No. Was it an overpay? Quite possibly, though smart people can disagree about the particulars.
Was the trade only about this year? No.
There’s no doubt about this, and it’s why I’m not (and wasn’t) outraged by the trade. But, I also think it’s important to not overstate his value to the team. The team was awesome without him. And it hasn’t improved with him.
by David S. Cohen on Sep 21, 2011 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
It has absolutely improved with him. Your own ‘analysis’ shows that the RF production is better. The fact that for the last 10 games the teams is going through the motions and dealing with injuries, bringing down the R/G avg of your conveniently selected samples does not change that fact.
by Nikk.m on Sep 21, 2011 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
No, the team’s performance hasn’t changed. Right field performance has changed. But the team’s output has changed not one bit.
And they were dealing with injuries before him too.
by David S. Cohen on Sep 21, 2011 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Again, this is highly selective: “But the team’s output has changed not one bit.”
It has changed quite a bit. Recent meaningless games with patchwork lineups mean nothing towards that.
I’m not sure I get your point – they’ve been dealing with patchwork lineups all year.
by David S. Cohen on Sep 21, 2011 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Really? You think the team isn’t trying?
by David S. Cohen on Sep 21, 2011 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions
I think that’s been kind of obvious lately
by Nikk.m on Sep 21, 2011 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
i think you got him here
I eat sentimentality for breakfast, but stats stop me dead in my tracks
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Sep 21, 2011 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, the 1-4 hitters put together possibly one of the worst 4-game stretches in all of baseball. Pray tell, how many hits did they get in the series? 1 or 2…COMBINED? In 4 games, in 37 innings of baseball?
Yes I’d say they’ve laid an egg. This goes back to the Astros series where if we didn’t have Roy Halladay on the mound, we’d be swept there as well.
We only won 1 game against the Cardinals. This is a legitimate concern, because the team that you saw in April-August, may not be the team we’re seeing in October and changes have to be made accordingly.
For example, do you REALLY think Antonio Bastardo deserves to be the set-up man at this point? If so, then you had no problems with ’09 Brad Lidge.
by LeQuan Glover on Sep 23, 2011 8:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh boy, now you are arguing semantics. The premise of the article is wrong, no matter how much your try to wordsmith and backpeddle.
by Nikk.m on Sep 21, 2011 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I’m saying it did improve with him. If the recent stretch of games say nothing either about how good this team is or how they will fare in the playoffs, it also says nothing about whether they were “improved” with Pence or not. But the fact is, they were scoring more than 5 runs a game with him, till recently. Now, obviously, he’s not the sole cause of that, just as Utley wasn’t the sole cause of the team going from averaging 3.8 runs a game to 4.7. But he was a big part of that, just as Utley was.
I think the thing Pence’s production may have done is to help mask some of the other problems/ injuries/ etc. While the overall production did not change, the fact is that without him, the offensive production would have been expected to have dropped off (barring a hot streak by whoever was playing Right Field).
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Sep 21, 2011 11:53 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
not a little, very selective. Maybe if the team slumps for another week, the next article will be about how Pence has made us worse.
by Nikk.m on Sep 21, 2011 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
They had patchwork lineups before. Meaningless games? No, they didn’t have them, but do you think they’re really not trying?
by David S. Cohen on Sep 21, 2011 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions
The intensity is clearly not there. Are they trying? Sure, in a generic sense, but it’s not the same.
I don’t buy it. They’re paid professionals. They’re just slumping.
by David S. Cohen on Sep 21, 2011 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions
They're just sleeping
"Call me dumb, call me stupid, whatever. I block shots."
His Name is Mudd http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lo-WjUjzV_Q
@boknows71
by boknows71 on Sep 21, 2011 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I am also a paid professional, and I can tell you right now that I do not always give the same level of effort, even if I’m always intending to do the job, or “trying”.
My job WAR goes way down when its baseball playoffs, football season and hockey season all at once.
"Call me dumb, call me stupid, whatever. I block shots."
His Name is Mudd http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lo-WjUjzV_Q
@boknows71
This- I don’t think they are consciously phoning it in, but I wonder how much of a factor fatigue is playing- they have now played 25 games in 23 days. It was bound to catch up to them, particularly with the desperation put of these games.
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Sep 21, 2011 11:56 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
This- I don’t think they are consciously phoning it in, but I wonder how much of a factor fatigue is playing- they have now played 25 games in 23 days. It was bound to catch up to them, particularly with the desperation put of these games.
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Sep 22, 2011 12:00 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
They played a Mini-Mart or a Valdez, solid utility guys. They didn’t however give the likes of Pete Orr, Ross Gload and John Bowker significant playing time.
All three of them categorically suck and all three of them don’t have the defensive skillsets of a Valdez or Mini-Mart.
by LeQuan Glover on Sep 23, 2011 9:01 AM EDT up reply actions
If your car was doing pretty well even with a blown out tire, maybe not.
by David S. Cohen on Sep 21, 2011 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions
But you'd expect the blown out tire to "regress"
so even if your car WAS doing well before replacing it, you shouldn’t necessarily expect that it would continue to do as well the second half of the trip. Even if your car performs equally well with the blown out tire, it’s still worse off as a car, and more liable to get you in a jam.
What I’m saying is, runs allowed and runs scored aren’t predictive measures. It seems to me that it would be more valuable to compare adjusted data, Pythagorean records, and the like. The runs scored and allowed before Pence’s arrival could reflect over- or underperformance (same as those after his arrival).
I know nothing about advanced stats, and maybe this kind of analysis would support your argument equally well. But weaknesses in baseball can manifest at any time, even if they haven’t in a particular set of data. RF was a big liability for us for four months, whether this had time to manifest in the team data or not. By acquiring Pence, we took a significant step toward eliminating that liability.
So if you played the other RFs that put up the .227/.325/.372 line you’re saying the Phils would have scored the same amount of runs and have the same record….doubtful. It is also pretty clear that they have partially shut it down since they all but wrapped everything up after the Brewers series. I think this is a bit of a stretch.
4/5 and counting
by DirtyWaters on Sep 21, 2011 10:21 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Yeah I mean the fact that the team has been putting up less good offensive numbers overall since the Pence acquisition does not mean he isn’t doing something. Analogously, imagine that I had cancer and bought a drug to help me manage my symptoms for 300$ and some resource TBNL. As I expected, the cancer got much worse BUT my symptoms remained the same thanks to the drug. You could argue that the drug did nothing because my symptoms were the same, but this does not run the counterfactual of how much worse my symptoms could have been without it.
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Sep 21, 2011 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Note* You could still argue that the marginal cost we paid in prospects outweighs the benefits (which is probably true), but this analysis doesn’t really show their has been no benefit of Pence.
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Sep 21, 2011 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
When you say the team hasn’t improved, you’re not taking into account the slack he’s picked up for players whose production has declined since his arrival (Victorino, Utley).Your second chart disproves the claim of this post, as he is clearly an improvement over the previous right field options, therefore a net improvement for this Phillies team, regardless of how ill-advised the trade may prove to be.
Yeah, and he hasn’t helped sell a damn seat either. Only sell outs since he got to Philly and no Super-Super Sell outs.
Damn you Hunter, damn you to hell.
"Call me dumb, call me stupid, whatever. I block shots."
His Name is Mudd http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lo-WjUjzV_Q
@boknows71
Exactly. But they’re not actually selling out games, remember?
by David S. Cohen on Sep 21, 2011 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions
But what about PROTECTION Dave?
Howards has played in 41 games with pence in the lineup. (168 PA)
.234/.339/.524 (.863 OPS) 34 hits 6 2B 12 HR 32 RBI 23BB 55K’s 24 RUNS scored
His previous 41 prior to Pence? (174 PA)
.280/.374/.500(.874 OPS) 42 base hits 9 2B 8HR 33 RBI 23BB 38 K’s 24 runs scored.
So since Pence is “protecting him” Howard has walked less, struck out more, got fewer hits, had 1 more extra base hit, and touched home plate EXACTLY the same amount of times.
Protection my ass. If Howard IS getting more pitches to hit, he sure as hell ain’t hitting them.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
but 4 more homerunssss look at the power pence has magically provided the big piece! /s
by 1shkabibles on Sep 21, 2011 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions
I think theres an arguement to be made that Pence kind of took over for Victorino, rather than for Brown, IMO.
Brown wasn’t hitting behind Howard, Vic was.
Prior to the Pence trade, Vic put up these numbers in 79 games
305/378/526 with 9 HR and 37 RBI 32BB to 36 K’s
Brown was at 246/335/393 with 5 HR 19 RBI and 25 BB to 34 K’s
Since the Pence trade?
Vic is at 247/332/451 8 HR and 24 RBI, 21BB to 25K’s.
Pence is at .323/.390/.543 with 9 Hr 28RBI 22BB to 35K’s
Essentially, Pence has been Victorino since the trade, and Victorino took over for Brown, batting wise, with a little bit more pop.
Thats why you see virtually the same production.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
Yeah judging the goodness of the Pence acquisition based on how the team hits is worse then judging a pitcher by winz.
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Sep 21, 2011 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions
I think thats a BIT of a stretch.
My point was that while Pence has been hot as hell since coming over, the only place you can compare him to Brown is defensively. He didn;t replace Brown offensively, he replaced Victorino, who replaced Polanco, who replaced Brown.
we’re getting vitrually the same offensive production out fof the 5 spot that we were prior to the trade, and ACTUALLY getting less production from Howard.
We’re also getting substantially less production from Vic, and I firmly believe that that has more to do with him hitting leadoff and 2nd, and facing more RHP than when he was hitting 5th.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
My point is that you are judging the deal based on how OTHERS play…. which is exactly what happens with wins—i.e. if you team isn’t hitting well for you, very good pitcher will not necessarily put up more wins. We don’t judge Doc ‘s performance based on how Vic, Howard,ect play the field… we shouldn’t judge Pence’s on how Vic, Howard, ect hit.
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Sep 21, 2011 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions
OR whether he has been a benefit to the team for that matter because we don’t know how much worse we’d be off without Pence (by the way NOTE I was and am against the Pence trade in that I think we gave up more than we should have for the improvement)
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Sep 21, 2011 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Joecatz provided the most sensible analysis of Pence’s contribution to the team so far
To argue Pence hasn’t made them better because they’ve scored and allowed the same number of runs over the 49 games he’s played with the Phillies vs. the previous 49 games is pretty broad…everybody was in agreement that Victorino was playing over his head this year, and had been there MVP for the first half of the season. Victorino has (not surprisingly) tailed off, and Pence has provided similar contributions since…part of the differences in Victorino’s production can probably be attributed to Victorino cooling off, and part of it has to do with the reshuffling of the lineup
If you’re comparing Pence to the previous right fielder contributions to the team, it’s obviously bene an upgrade this year. The team’s statistics obviously don’t capture each individual’s contribution…but at the same time, the point of the article is the same at the end of the day…we clinched homefield advantage throughout the playoffs with 10 games left in the season…we probably didn’t need to upgrade by trading away good prospects….I just don’t think the analysis in this post is the best way to make that point.
If I could figure out how to prove it, without going through every game individually, I would argue that Vic’s tail off was not BOUND to happen, but instead THE RESULT of Pence being added to the team.
I’m convinced that Victorino’s surge this year had EVERYTHING to do with batting behind Howard, which forced him to
1. Change his approach at the plate (Say what you want about lineup. It makes a difference to these guys)
2. See more RHP than in other spots in the lineup.
That said, it likely would not have made a differnce, if we didn’t trade for pence, as Charlie would have slotted Mayberry into the 5 hole, anyway.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
In the end, it’s always impossible to say what would have been. Would Dom have struggled like he did in AAA, or was the level at which he struggled caused by his demotion to AAA? Would Mayberry have played at the same level in August with more playing time, or not? Etc etc.
I did love having Victorino in the 5 hole though. It was like the perfect spot, strategy wise, since he doesn’t “seem” like a lefty masher. In contrast to Pence who “seems” like a lefty masher but really isn’t. For a while, teams kept on letting lefty relievers pitch to Victorino over and over and he just kept on killing them.
Rollins
Utley
Pence
Howard
Victorino
Ibanez
Polanco
Ruiz
that is my dream lineup for this team.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
by Joecatz on Sep 21, 2011 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I want this.
Ed Snider is a crotchety old fuck.
That is all.
by EREX21 on Sep 21, 2011 2:23 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I want this.
Ed Snider is a crotchety old fuck.
That is all.
by EREX21 on Sep 21, 2011 2:23 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Any chance you can infiltrate the clubhouse for the playoffs and write this on the lineup board?
by phillyinportland on Sep 22, 2011 4:01 AM EDT up reply actions
CLAIRVOYANCE
today’s lineup:
Rollins
Utley
Pence
Howard
Victorino
Ibanez
Polanco
Ruiz
I know we’ve just lost eight in a row, but I’m pretty goddamn high on this list at the moment.
Non Sequitur of the Day. Word association game. "Vic in the 5 Hole". Raise your hand if your first thought went here:
+ [ 
] — 
— 
] = by j reed on Sep 21, 2011 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
You’re gonna have to help me out with this equation. Who are the orange guy kissing the puppet and the black and white guy?
Alright.
So, Leighton plus (quotient of color Wences with puppet and greyscale Wences without puppet equals ) Color Puppet minus Blackhawks is equal to Hand times sum car in sinkhole less weed further equals handjob.
Not sure I can say that’s what I was thinking of, and I’m absolutely overthinking the shit out of this, but good point, for sure!
by Phrozen on Sep 21, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
So
Here’s the “calculus”.
Leighton + (Senor Wences* hand puppet)/ Senor Wences) – the puck that “symbolically” scored the SCF winning goal= 5* (pot hole – pot)
So the Wences cancel leaving you with eerie hand puppet and the pot hole minus the pot is a hole.
Okay technically it’s a sink hole but the with car in it, it’s like pot hole grande.
That gives you
Leighton talking to his empty glove like it’s a hand puppet = 5 Hole (his BSH meme name and where the game winning SCF puck went thru). His performance over the whole post season was like getting hand job. It was something that was better than nothing but nonetheless a meh+1. Lucky but just not quite lucky enough.
Makes perfect sense, rite? Having trouble? Consult the manual. See exploded view of j reed’s thought process. Just follow the drips. Start anywhere, end anywhere.
.I’m wiry…literally, I’m scrappy made flesh.
.
Jackson Pollock, Number 1, 1948. 1948, enamel and aluminum paint on canvas [63in. x 104 in.]
I’d have called it Cthulhu Gamete, just saying.
by j reed on Sep 21, 2011 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Okay technically it’s a sink hole
Well, clearly, if you meant sink hole, you would have just posted the Barves logo.
by Cormican on Sep 22, 2011 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
In a very non-saber analysis, I think Dom’s struggles are a matter of him just running out of gas. He was already starting to tail off a little bit even before Pence came along. He’s spent the last couple winters in the Dominican or Arizona. I think he just needs an off season to relax.
Welcome to the City of Brotherly Love, now GTFO
by Veni Vidi Vici on Sep 21, 2011 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Year round sports for a professional athlete is spectacularly short-sighted. The risks of plateauing and worse, injuries and the loss of skills (maladaption) increase for what amounts to little gain or none at all. Off seasons are for recouperating, preparing for the up and coming season and maintaining or enhancing general athletic attributes (strength, speed, endurance, flexibility and coordination).
Another broken record recording.
Baseball, free Gaileo. Absolution awaits.
Dominus noster Jesus Christus te absolvat; et ego auctoritate ipsius te absolvo ab omni vinculo excommunicationis (sespensionis) et interdicti in quantum possum et tu indiges. [making the Sign of the Cross:] Deinde, ego te absolvo a peccatis tuis in nomine Patris, et Filii, et Spiritus Sancti. Amen.
I’m very much looking forward to a well-rested Dom coming back to the big leagues next spring and wrecking shop.
I feel some trepidation about a possible Dom vs. Mayberry position battle and how the fan base will react to that. I still have big doubts that Mayberry is really an everyday-quality player, but if he is, it will be great news offset by all the turmoil it will cause. (It will also mean that the Pence trade will have been that much more unnecessary, although I don’t think that’s the strongest reason for criticizing it.)
But TP, look at the bright side. If Mayberry really is fo realz, then it makes the inevitable Polanco/Brown/May/Biddle for Hanley Ramirez deal tin the off season much easier to swallow, no?
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
I’ll see you on the Ben Franklin.
"I remember being three and I wanted to be a baseball player, that's all I ever really wanted to be. That and Spider Man." -Raul Ibanez
by Jose and the Contrarians on Sep 21, 2011 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m confused here. Are you saying that while batting fifth Victorino saw more RHPs and thus batted lefty more often and then did better batting behind Howard?
by phillyinportland on Sep 22, 2011 5:14 AM EDT up reply actions
No. What I’m implying is that Victorino faced more LHP in the 5 hole than he does batting 1st or 2nd.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
That’s what I thought you meant originally but this is what your post said: “2. See more RHP than in other spots in the lineup.” Since I haven’t gone back to see what happened in the games when Victorino batted fifth behind Howard I thought maybe I was off in my assumption. I agree with your assessment of Victorino’s performance in the five hole and how well he hits right-handed. But it may be a case of a small sample – primarily July if I recall – coinciding with a hot period for Victorino that makes it look like an adjustment in his approach caused his surge.
by phillyinportland on Sep 22, 2011 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Blog is wrong, but also right ha ha
It’s wrong because you just want to compare Pence’s numbers to previous right fielder. No, you don’t ignore Pence’s production. It’s better. The fact is adding his numbers make the team better. If the team numbers end up no better, it’s because other players did worse – ie Victorino slumping, Rollins being out, Utley slumping, etc. It is pretty much a crime against Pence to ignore his value to the team and act like he did not add it.
Yet, I will say the article is also right in my opinion, the trade was not “necessary.” I think we’d have made the post-season anyway. That said, I’m happy with Pence now and it is more than about this year. I’ll also say it’s interesting adding 11 more RBI per 49 games shows you what an upgrade really does. I think sometimes we lose our heads over a player with higher OPS and think wow, what they’d do for the team. People would trade Howard for Pujols in a second and think, wow if we had Pujols we’d do SO much better. Would we? We’ve made the post-season anyway so we didn’t need him for that. How many, IF ANY, more RBI would he really have added? So then it comes down to the post-season and I’ll just say, I’d stick with Howard. I really like him and he plays with heart. So just something to keep in mind when clamoring for oft-expensive upgrades.
You had me, then you lost me when you questioned whether wed be better with Pujols.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
But you’re misquoting me because I didn’t say whether we’d be better or not, I question the marginal incremental unecessary improvement for more money, and I use it because it’s one it’s been talked about like oh wow, imagine if we had Pujols, like it would be so amazing and I’m pointing out the reality – what would it net? How many more RBI’s? So no I guess read what I said I didn’t say whether we’d be better, I question especially in light of people’s imaginations sometimes, how much better that better would really be and if it would be needed or worth it. But for that matter, there are still intangibles. I’d still simply like Howard and think he leads the team and issues of team chemistry that I think Pujols doesn’t. But it’s really another debate and off-topic. The main point is look at the incremental difference in RBI’s with a HUGE improvement like Pence, see how it really is, and then consider what a smaller incremental expensive change would really do.
Gotcha.
I was reading it wrong. So are you essentially saying that we added 11 RBI, but because we SCORED the same amount of runs, the production wasn’t really any better? if so then I agree.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
Thank you, that’s it on the first part – though I’d even the runs could be higher – say with Pujols the team adds 10 RBI’s and 10 runs per year. I think for one thing just to consider 10 RBI’s in 162 games, it’s not nothing, but even assuming Howard and Pujols are equal at hitting when it mattered most or that evens out, how many more games would it really win? 2 more games? Maybe it would. But then I’ll try to avoid going off-topic here I’m making assumptions based on the stats, but I personally like Howard, similar to Chooch, JRoll and other players for intangibles. I think they play with a lot of heart and help the team more than we may realize. That may be my real reason for wanting to stick with Howard, plus some loyalty. But ignoring all that and assuming the stats would translate as is, it’s maybe 2 more wins a year. Maybe that is a lot but at least these last 5 years it wasn’t needed.
I don’t blame you I bet most people would make the trade. I just like Howard and think he plays with heart. I’m just saying too we made the post-season anyway. Pujols wants 10 years / $230 million. Is it worth 10 extra RBI per year and who knows if he’d help in the post-season. I’m just saying when you consider an incremental upgrade – I mean here you have a HUGE difference in OPS and it results in 11 RBI per 49 games. With Pujols what you have maybe 3-5 RBI in that span more. Let’s say 15 more per year. We don’t even need it. Why pay much more for it?
I really dig this piece, most of all because it got me thinking about “getting better” versus “staying the same.” David points out (and the math backs him up) that adding Pence hasn’t, strictly speaking, made a difference for the team. The team was awesome before, and with Pence, they continued to be just as awesome. But that makes me wonder — if Pence’s production didn’t actively improve the team, has it helped them maintain their level of awesomeness? Did his production replace another player’s? For example, since Pence joined the team on July 30, Victorino has hit .251/.333/.460, and Utley has hit .226/.294/.329 (ouch). Has Pence’s production prevented the slumps of Victorino and Utley from making an impact?
See below. Pence, Mayberry, Polly and Chooch have astepped up since the trade.
It was Vic, and Utley before that.
Which is the BEAUTY of this team. Unless the offense all goes down, Someone always steps up.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
meh. double headers, hangovers, 150 games, no days off for two weeks, AAA filler lineups, resting boo boo’s….
They get a pass until Monday from me.
But I want a sweep against the Braves to end the season.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
Eh, since joining the Phillies, Pence has put up 2.3 fWAR. While I don’t have numbers from other Phillies in the timespan (and I have to leave in a couple minutes so I do not have time to look this up), he hasn’t not been productive. That the Phillies offensive and defensive output is the same may be a correlation, but not necessarily a direct causation stemming from Pence vs. other right fielders.
Writer at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
Slash lines since the trade for the "regulars"
Much worse than before
Utley .225/.291/.331
Vic .247/.332/.451
Howard 234/.339/.524
Argue Howard for “par for the course” if you like, but since the trade all hes done is hit a few more home runs (which is the norm for him) while strking out more, walking less, and getting on base at a much lower rate.
Par for the course
Rollins .261/.336/.454
Ibanez .238/.281/.454
Considerably better
Polly .303/.378/.345
Chooch .305/.264/.398
Another stratosphere
Mayberry .293/.353/.609
Pence .323/.390/.543
So to me, and no disrespect to the article Dave, because I fall squarely in the same camp as you do regarding the trade, Pence has helped considerably, but so has Polly, Chooch, and Mayberry. Essentially, they picked up the offensive slack from Vic and Utley, and Howard, while Ibanez and Rollins kept doing pretty much what they’ve been doing all year.
That said, What I will say, and I’ve said this all along, is that whether you are in the “Pence is the key to a championship” or the “We didn’t need Pence at all” camp, this team lives and dies based on 3 guys in the post season
Utley
Howard
Rollins
Vic is a bonus, Polly is a bonus, Hot Raul and Mayberry are bonuses.
At the end of the season, If Utley Rollins and Howard don’t hit in October, nothing matters.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
I agree with this, except to point out that Howard’s walks are actually up. It’s his batting average dragging down his OBP.
I’ll buy that actually, but look at his K rate. He’s was striking out 1 every 4 AB prior to. Its 1 every 3 since.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
Oh, yeah, his Ks are definitely up, which of course affects his BA, and thus is OBP & SLG.
There was some study recently about batters with high K rates depending on very high BABIPs in order to be close to an elite offensive player, even if they have a decent walk rate. Howard’s walk rate has gone up this year compared to recent years, but his BABIP is down, as is his HR/FB rate.
That’s where my train of thought led me. Good God, Vic and Utley are stone cold right now. And I thought watching them was painful. Looking at their stats is even worse.
Its even worse over the last 28 days
Vic .170/ .259/ .310
Utley .189/.250/.297
Theyve combined for 4 HRs and 12 RBIs in the last 25 games. 30 hits combined in 200 ABs.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
In fact, they were both hitting ok in the first couple of weeks post-trade, so the offense was clicking on all cylinders. But they’ve been awful since. Still, Victorino’s looked a bit better the last 3-4 games. Utley looked to be coming around just prior to getting beaned, so we’ll have to see if he can get his timing back.
Funny Math? Check the wins and losses in both columns.
32 + 19 = 49? Not according to my calculator!
The unspoken question
Given that I was the Chief Apologist for the Acquisition of Michael Bourn prior to the Pence trade, I believe the real question is much more complex and possibly unknowable.
That is, would the Phils have been just as good getting Bourn (who has performed well for the Barves) instead of Pence, when Bourn could have been acquired for much less than Pence, with less long-term salary impact?
Hunter Pence will not guarantee a WS, but, then, neither does Carlos Beltran.
I dunno. Pence’s wOBA since the trade was .400; Bourn’s is .315. I have a tough time believing that whatever advantages Bourn brings to the table fielding and running-wise can outweigh that much of an offensive difference.
That said, if you’re taking the value of what they cost via trades into account, they might have been just as well off.
by everybodyhitswoohoo on Sep 21, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
This article makes an interesting point! But I’m having trouble fully buying into this argument.
As I see it, this post shows is that Hunter Pence hasn’t appeared have an effect on the teams performance from one set of games to the other in terms of these outcomes: runs scored and wins.
I’m not sure you can directly translate these outcomes staying the same into the trade being “unnecessary,” or the implication that this awesome Phillies team isn’t any “better” with Pence than without. If nothing else, there are so many variables involved, especially when talking about the team as a whole—I would be interested in seeing this proved with a little more rigor!
What you can do, however, is take Pence’s 2.3 fWAR since joining the Phillies, then compare it to the fact that the Phillies clinched the #1 seed in the NL playoffs with more than 10 games left to go. It is almost certainly the case that the trade was unnecessary for ending up precisely where they are going to end up at the conclusion of the 2011 regular season.
In that case, are you arguing that any trade at all (at least for a position player) was unnecessary? or is there a theoretically achievable threshold of fWAR that would have validated such a trade?
by AshburnAllie on Sep 21, 2011 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Well you can’t get higher than a #1 seed, so yes, any trade would have been unnecessary.
That doesn’t mean that any trade was unjustifiable. There are potential playoff benefits and potential future benefits. But the cost would have had to be in line with those more speculative benefits only. It would have had to have been discounted from a player’s overall value, since we wouldn’t benefit from any of that value through the end of the 2011 regular season.
In other words, I would have been fine with ripping some team off. But a straight-up even trade was definitionally a bad trade for the Phillies given the circumstances they were in. And I’m not even sure if the Pence trade was an even trade in the first place.
thanks for the explanation! this article and these comments have shed the most light I’ve seen so far as to why many still regret the trade for Pence—definitely more enlightening then the usual “protection” snark!
that said, I think I might have preferred to remain in a state of blissful ignorance…at least for this season. :) I think that, as a fan, there’s been an emotional aspect to this trade that is very compelling and has an appeal that any data would have a hard time competing with. There’s a nice narrative with Pence—he went from worst to first, he’s scrappy and awkward but clearly loves the game, etc.
by AshburnAllie on Sep 21, 2011 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
The only theoretical threshold that would have validated it would ahve been a “go for broke” tyope scenario, where the addition is what got us in. That was never a factor.
Of course, in hidsight, at the time, to be fair, people said the same things about both the Braves and The Giants, Miwaukee was in 2nd or 3rd place in the central, and Arizona was thinking about selling….
Theres no way to quantify whether it was “necessary or not” the real question to me, was whether the area we addressed was the area that needed addressing, if any area existed at all.
right about now, another bullpen arm is looking pretty enticing, and we have another RHB in Mayberry that has actually been BETTER than Pence since the Trade….
No way to rpedict that though.
Which is why the whole trade circle of life is a crapshoot.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
THIS
Is still my biggest arguement against the trade. Essentially, we clinched a few days earlier, and will win 3 more games at best than if we didn’t make the deal.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
Is that the ONLY benefit of the trade? Who cares about how many games they won the division by? What about a more powerful and balanced lineup for the playoffs? What about filling in a corner outfield spot for the next 2 years with a borderline all-star?
the lineup being more powerful and balanced is questionable at best.
filling the outfield spot with a borderline all star for the next two years had nothing to do with needing to do it in July for 4 prospects.
Serious question.
If the Phillies get bounced in the NLDS, but Hunter Pence is fantastic that series, is the trade worth it to you still? Knowing that you probably could have traded for him (or someone else LIKE him) this offseason for considerably less that what we gave up for the extra half season? Or gone out and signed another similar free agent type (Cuddyer for example?)
What if the Dodgers make Matt Kemp available, and he goes for a lesser package than we sent for Pence? still gonna be happy?
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
Who are these guys that will be available this winter? From what I’ve seen the outfield crop is pretty barren. And do I even need to mention that top FA talent costs more money than what we can currently afford? There are a lot of variables in play
Well, one of the possibilities is that Pence himself would have been available, and possibly been had less dearly. Now, the Phillies made a calculation that he would not be, and that other guys (Kemp, e.g.) would be too expensive, if available, and they wanted Pence. So they pulled the trigger. It’s a defensible move, but you’re not really arguing the poins other are making.
Hunter Pence is going to cost you MINIMUM 20MM over the next two years that he’s arbitration eligible. Thats assuming Rube doesn’t lock him up to a longer term deal. His contract is yet to be determined.
We went after him because he was controlled for the next two years, not because he was cost controlled. that made the trade easier to swallow. It doesn’t change the fact that if he was available in July, he would have been available in the off season, for likely less.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
That is just silly. You think Wade would have kept from trading him this July if the Phils dropped out of the sweepstakes? That’s a really bad assumption.
Maybe, maybe not. But there weren’t any other teams willing to give up what we did, and the only other team to go after an outfielder was Atlanta, who got Bourn.
Uptons out there this winter, Cuddyer is a free agent, and there will be plenty of other 10 MM per year outfielders puting up 2.3 WAR to bid on for a lot less.
Nikki, I’m not saying the trade hasn’t worked out so far. I’m saying that even if we win the WS, and even if Pence is super productive for the next 3 years, it was unneccesar, and an overpay. thats all.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
It seems like a lot of people are misreading the post. It is true that Pence did not cause the team to be better than it was before the trade. Did he cause the team to be better than it would have been from 7/29-onward had the trade not been made? Yeah, probably. But there’s no contradiction between those two statements. That the team hasn’t improved compared to what it was before the trade is just a fact.
Anyway, the main point for me remains that the team would have made the playoffs with or without Pence – in fact, it almost certainly would have gotten the #1 seed with or without Pence. The prospect load that the Phillies gave up was very valuable, and the price was not worth it in exchange for (1) no benefit during this regular season, (2) a completely unpredictable and probably small % gain of winning during this postseason, and (3) a real benefit for the next two years, but not a sub-market one, and one that we cannot say could not have been duplicated at a lesser price.
It’s really absurd to see people gloat about the trade now, just because Pence has played well. (Most of y’all in this thread are not doing that, but the sentiment is certainly out there in the fan base at large.) Pence could play like Willie Mays and it still wouldn’t necessarily mean it was a good trade – the bill hasn’t come due yet. It’s like someone bragging about his fancy new McMansion before knowing where the interest rates on his mortgage are going to end up.
Unfortunately, I think he went further in the original post than what your first paragraph suggests. His runs/game charts are misleading, and not at all relevant to that playoffs point.
The R/G charts don’t seem any different to me than the W/L charts do. They both go to the same point, no? Anyway, yes the playoffs point is my own point, not David’s, so they aren’t “relevant” to one another. But they are consistent with one another, I think.
I don’t think so, for the reasons I outlined above. These games, played with some measure of ambivalence, and with the high quantity of bench/AAA players, have dragged down the averages, and likely reduced the wins. I think it’s an inapt comparison.
I actually agree more with you than David on that one underlying point, that they aren’t playing as well now as they’re capable of playing – though I don’t think it’s as much because of ambivalence as because of guys getting rested a lot. That said, I doubt that it makes a whole huge difference in the R/G or W/L totals over a 50 game stretch. Any differences would still be within the margin of error, to use some incorrect terminology.
Boring
Wow really, Pence is part of the team now, has fit in very nicely. Im glad we have him. A lot of the Phillies succes is based on the teams chemistry,and they seem to love him, they play hard and feed of each other. Yes alot of people on this site hate the trade. Too bad, its done, and your opinion was never really a factor , so why would it be now, we need positive thinking going into the playoffs. I hope youre wrong and Pence becomes an amazing pick up with some play off heroics. You should alsot. GO Phightings!! I hope these website drops the same old subject, we have better stuff to put our collective energy into. Peace.
chemistry, playing hard, AND positive thinking!
Any other cliches you want to throw in while you’re at it? Might as well go for the record.
Feel sorry for you
Must be a shitty life, when simple things like enjoying a baseball team comes so naturally hard. taco Pal take it easy. Accept not everyone has your point of view, seriously accept it. Whole Camels will always love you.
Haha, Taco. You’re quite the popular nemesis recently.
Let's go eat...a triceratops. /velociraptor'd
by LeepinLizardz on Sep 21, 2011 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Even the devil’s saying “Why the hell is this guy on my side?”
Time is not made of lines. It is made of circles. That is why clocks are round.
-Michael J Caboose
by TheOrangeCone on Sep 21, 2011 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
I dunno. WC seems like a vengeful bastard to me.
Time is not made of lines. It is made of circles. That is why clocks are round.
-Michael J Caboose
by TheOrangeCone on Sep 21, 2011 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Not nearly as tough as FM though.
Let's go eat...a triceratops. /velociraptor'd
by LeepinLizardz on Sep 21, 2011 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
rhythmically taps nightstick in open hand
The Good Phight, NotGraphs, Twitter, fun!
by FuquaManuel on Sep 21, 2011 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
The bold made it even more intimidating.
Let's go eat...a triceratops. /velociraptor'd
by LeepinLizardz on Sep 21, 2011 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Yikes! * Hides in closet *
Let's go eat...a triceratops. /velociraptor'd
by LeepinLizardz on Sep 21, 2011 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
This Phillies team, if it wins tonight, will have a better winning percentage than every single one of the Braves’ 14 division winners from 1991-2005.
I think it more proves how great this Phillies team is.
It’s just that the 2011 Phillies are even better.
Those are all direct Taco Pal quotes. Looks like he’s enjoying the team to me.
Aside to Taco: see what I did there? I blockquoted things you said in the past and reposted them to prove a point! I’m learning!
Let's go eat...a triceratops. /velociraptor'd
by LeepinLizardz on Sep 21, 2011 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Taco, he's a renewable source of clean enegry.
Pence spit, some pine tar, a 2:1 mix of Mountain Dew and Red Bull, and a styrofoam cup
Cold fuckin’ A fusion.
by j reed on Sep 21, 2011 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
David, you forgot to figure in the High Socks Value and Nice Calves % that Pence adds. I mean, no offense to Victorino, Ibanez, and Brown, but the NC% of the outfield was pretty bad and, as I’m sure is obvious, their HSV was non-existent. Interestingly, Brown’s HSV has increased considerably since his demotion.
I’m not even getting into Goofyness Factor. Victorino pretty much carried the outfield with that.
Let's go eat...a triceratops. /velociraptor'd
by LeepinLizardz on Sep 21, 2011 11:48 AM EDT reply actions 4 recs
rec’d
Before Pence got hurt yesterday, I imagined a meeting where he and Shane lobbied CHarlie to let them play 2B and SS down the stretch, caue they thought it’d be cool.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
by Joecatz on Sep 21, 2011 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Don’t forget his batting practice home runs. Have you seen how far those things go?
Time is not made of lines. It is made of circles. That is why clocks are round.
-Michael J Caboose
by TheOrangeCone on Sep 21, 2011 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
They’re moonshots! They’re literally on the moon.
Let's go eat...a triceratops. /velociraptor'd
by LeepinLizardz on Sep 21, 2011 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
They couldn’t say it if it wasn’t true. They have to be credible.
No one knows what it means, but it's provocative! GETS THE PEOPLE GOING!
by Eaglesadvocate on Sep 21, 2011 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I wonder if the Apollo 18 astronauts caught them?
Welcome to the City of Brotherly Love, now GTFO
by Veni Vidi Vici on Sep 21, 2011 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions
David,
I think the bigger question we should be asking ourselves today is where to hide the regulars from John Lannans wrath.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
That’s an easy one. The starting lineup, of course.
Time is not made of lines. It is made of circles. That is why clocks are round.
-Michael J Caboose
by TheOrangeCone on Sep 21, 2011 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
I still remember having an argument with my friend over the trade, and he pulled out the “win now” bit. I wanted to slug him.
Time is not made of lines. It is made of circles. That is why clocks are round.
-Michael J Caboose
Everyone wants to win now. Then, if and when the bill comes due, they whine about why they have to pay now.
Welp, a large piece of our future is now on a farm in Texas somewhere, for better or worse.
Time is not made of lines. It is made of circles. That is why clocks are round.
-Michael J Caboose
by TheOrangeCone on Sep 21, 2011 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I miss our kids already :*-(
Let's go eat...a triceratops. /velociraptor'd
by LeepinLizardz on Sep 21, 2011 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
of course, it’s possible to defend the trade without arguing a silly “win now” position… I’m personally mostly ambivalent about it, but leaning towards it being a decent move, if slight (or even more) overpay.
on the other hand, let’s say the prospects don’t pan out, at all: people fail to recognize that different prospects will fare differently in different systems… if the Houston system is shitty, that could mean both that they don’t draft well, but also that when they do draft well, or acquire others’ good draft selections, or prospects, that they aren’t good at developing talent. Cole Hamels was a first-round draft pick, but that doesn’t mean he’d have been the pitcher he is now if the Expos drafted him and then traded him to the Pirates.
"We feared the trade would be unnecessary"
Unnecessary to what? Winning a division title? Home field advantage? Winning the Wolrd Series? Can we go all It’s a Wonderful Life and see what would have happened to the Phillies without Pence?
It is true that the difference between a 3-2 win and a 15-4 win is nothing. They are both wins. What if we had acquired Pujols and Lincecum at the deadline as well. Would that have mattered? Probably not, but doesn’t it give us a better chance to win the World Series? We may have paid a lot for Pence (or maybe not, who REALLY knows). But the incremental cost of adding additional wins on top of a already high number is very costly. However, it will benefit the most when we are paired up against teams closer in ability as we will likely see in the playoffs.
The team was good before Pence, but it is better now with him. It doesn’t matter what has happened, just what is likely to happen in the future and the team is more likely to win in the post season with Pence than without him.
For Who? My teammates.
For What? To Win.
How Much? Where do I sign?
by jonk on Sep 21, 2011 1:00 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I thought he was merely a legend.
Time is not made of lines. It is made of circles. That is why clocks are round.
-Michael J Caboose
by TheOrangeCone on Sep 21, 2011 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Its like people don’t realize that there is more than just regular season 2011 standings that were impacted by this trade.
No, it isn’t. You’re just lying about what everyone has said in this thread, multiple times. That’s because you have no argument against the actual contrary views expressed, so you make up straw men to argue against.
Find one comment, please, that implies that “just regular season 2011 standings were impacted by this trade.”
"We didn't need to trade for Pence, we were already good without him."
There were a lot of comments to that effect. You need everything you can get in a semi-crapshoot playoff format.
Schleckonds.
by dees ees en drama on Sep 21, 2011 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions
And I am usually up for a hate the crazy white guy outfielder (see my really old sig), but I am not sure what the premise really is of the original post.
Like, are we saying we shouldn’t have traded for him because the results haven’t shown it so far?
For Who? My teammates.
For What? To Win.
How Much? Where do I sign?
I don’t think David’s taking a normative position one way or the other on whether the trade should have been made. He said above in this thread that he isn’t outraged by it. I think he’s just making a descriptive statement – that the Phillies didn’t get that much better after the trade.
Now I think the trade shouldn’t have been made. But my reasons are somewhat different from the ones David wrote about.
I heard of you, but I’ve never seen you in person! Can I call you Bigfoot? Or UFO?
Let's go eat...a triceratops. /velociraptor'd
by LeepinLizardz on Sep 21, 2011 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Unrelated
Sweet crap of Zeus, that Marlins logo in the sidebar is hideous.
Agreed. It’s very early-90s-esque.
Let's go eat...a triceratops. /velociraptor'd
by LeepinLizardz on Sep 21, 2011 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Just now noticed it. Looks more like the logo for some hot new club down in South Beach
Welcome to the City of Brotherly Love, now GTFO
by Veni Vidi Vici on Sep 21, 2011 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
If the numbers haven't changed, then it's not because Pence is a zero-sum player
It’s because the rest of the team, collectively, has dipped in results since Pence arrived. So these numbers just tell me that Pence has prevented the team from getting worse in the last 7-8 weeks. These numbers don’t account for things like sample error, the other 8 hitters in the lineup and their inevitable fluctuations, or all of the subs playing lately.
In other words: Never, ever ever, ever, ever rate individual at the team level. He’s been way better than the right fielders Philly already had, and has fortified perhaps their only actual weakness. Even if he wasn’t past performance would indicate that he gives the team a better chance to win in October.
The better you are, the more it makes sense to mortgage the future and play for this year. An incremental improvement on a title favorite will greatly move the needle on a team’s probability of actually winning it all. Whereas, say, the Tampa Bay Rays? They might go from 2% to 2.1%. Or something like that.
“Stand pat when you don’t need to improve” is a poor strategy, unless you are content with just making the playoffs every year.
There’s always a fear of giving up too much, but there is almost no way that the Phillies would be as good without Pence, as they are with Pence.
Schleckonds.
by dees ees en drama on Sep 21, 2011 1:17 PM EDT reply actions
There are two hurdles to winning the World Series in a given year.
One is making the playoffs (including seeding). One is winning playoff series.
1. How much did acquiring Pence move the needle for making the playoffs?
2. How much did acquiring Pence move the needle for obtaining the #1 seed?
3. How much did acquiring Pence move the needle for winning playoff series?
[And just to make it absolutely explicit for those who can’t read, this is not to say that the only benefits of the Pence trade are to be felt in 2011. However, since “dees ees en drama” is specifically making an argument that the 2011 benefits are substantial, it is appropriate to analyze just how substantial or insubstantial those benefits actually are.]
1. not much; 2. not much
3. Most likely by at least a little bit. You replace a .227/.325/.372 with a 0.325/.391/.539, it’s going to improve your chances. Or we could conservatively go with his career numbers of .292/.342/.484. Either way, you are you are improving the team’s production and improving the team by about as much as one can reasonably expect in the course of a single trade at the deadline.
I am not a sabermetrician—more like a mathematically inclined SABR-wannabe. So I don’t know how to translate those numbers into a set %. What I can point out is that Pence has 12.2 career WAR (lower than I would have expected, honestly). But he was replacing guys in RF who were completely replacement level, so “expect” him to add a win every 60 games.
A hypothetical team that has a 60% chance of winning a home game, and a 50% chance of winning a road game, theoretically wins a 5 game series (with home field advantage) 61.2% of the time, and a 7 game series 69.12% of the time. This translates to winning the World Series 29.24% of the time. However, if you were to add Hunter’s value to the team (~1 win every 60 games), then you win the World Series 33.68% of the time. So the needle moves by about 4. 44%. The Arizona Diamondbacks are given a 6% chance in Vegas, and it’s not even that much because obviously the bookies have to make sure everything adds up to something well above 100%.
These are obviously not exact or even very credible numbers in and of themselves, but they do give us a decent idea of how much value Hunter’s presence is expected to add.
Schleckonds.
by dees ees en drama on Sep 21, 2011 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
And that is not even mentioning the non-trivial factor that in a tight game a team like the Braves would have to think long and hard about using a guy like Venters to face Pence before getting to Ibanez.
As a factual matter, Fredi Gonzalez wouldn’t think at all about this decision seeing as how Venters always pitches the entire 8th inning and isn’t used situationally at all. But that’s neither here nor there.
The main point is that in order to calculate the statistical likelihood that Pence facing Venters will swing the series, you need to multiple (likelihood that this situation will even come up in any particular game with the game on the line) x (likelihood that Pence will succeed minus likelihood that the person he replaced would have succeeded) x (likelihood that the game in question will be decided by the difference in that likelihood of success and would not have reached the same result regardless) x (assuming that a game is in fact decided because of this specific differential, the likelihood that that game will be the deciding game in the series – i.e. that the Phillies would have lost 4-3 otherwise).
In other words, “dees ees en drama” was right here – the likelihood that Pence makes a difference in the series (particularly, if you based it on the specific scenario you outline) is exceedingly small. It is in fact trivial. You can call it non-trivial all you want, but just because you assert it doesn’t make it true.
Also, to point out yet another factual mistake in your hypothetical, Pence probably wouldn’t be replaced by Ibanez in the 5-hole, he would probably be replaced Victorino – as we already discussed at great length above. As far as the overall lineup goes, he would be replaced by Brown or Mayberry.
It may seem trivial in the context of one AB making a difference, but when you take 4-5 ABs per game over the course of an entire series, the probability of winning each series improves. Because Pence adds upward pressure to the WP of each individual series, the probability of winning all 3 consecutively increases geometrically.
Anyway, I could not disagree more about 4.44% being a trivial bump. If the Diamondbacks go to the playoffs and lose in the first round, they would lose, at most, 6%. And that’s what they lose for losing an entire playoff series. The Phillies gained that amount by trading for a RF to replace, literally, replacement level players. Would you say that represents a significant advantage?
Because 4.44% is also about as good as anyone can hope to do with one player. You start 8 position players and 4 different pitchers in the playoffs, plus the bullpen/bench. One trade is not going to take an underdog and make them an even-money favorite. It’s just not how baseball works.
Schleckonds.
by dees ees en drama on Sep 21, 2011 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m not following your logic here at all. You seem to be saying that because 4.44% is close to the Diamondbacks’ percentage of winning it all, that shows that it’s a very large benefit. Why wouldn’t it make more sense to conclude that the Diamondbacks’ percentage of winning it all is just very low? This assumes that 4.44% is a good estimate in the first place.
More to the point, even if you were right that the Phillies would obtain a very high benefit, that wouldn’t be enough, in and of itself, to validate the trade. What matters is whether the benefit exceeds the costs. There are way too many people who think they can evaluate the appropriateness of the trade while only looking at one side of the ledger.
The article's main point is that the Pence trade hasn't helped the Phillies this season
My point is that this trade helps. We’re not really discussing the “bottom” line of whether this was a good trade, just analyzing one side of the equation. One of the main arguments is that “well we don’t really need him, we’re good already.” That’s completely backwards. The Phillies should be more inclined to make trades than the D-Backs (or Cardinals or Rays or Indians), not the other way around.
It’s easy to get bogged down in the semantics of whether 4.44% is “a lot,” but the it’s almost impossible to get a more profitable (to this season) trade than replacing your biggest positional weakness. I mention the D-Backs to point out that a “low” WP is still extremely significant—I doubt anybody would take it lightly if the Backs got booted in the first round, even though they all surely know what underdogs they are.
There are plenty of good reasons to be opposed to this trade, but “we don’t need him” is a poor one. Pence is needed now more than ever.
Schleckonds.
by dees ees en drama on Sep 21, 2011 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions
But yes
I’ll agree that Pence can be helpful & still not worth the price. You really do have to look at both sides of the balance to determine good trade/bad trade.
Schleckonds.
by dees ees en drama on Sep 21, 2011 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions
One of the reasons people are arguing against Pence is the unknown quality of Singleton/Cosart. However, this unknown quality is not translated as a “zero” by Phillies fans but rather they translate it into automatic future success(See: Domonic Brown Overhype)
Phillies Fans(in general here on TGP) have translated it as automatic future success because of the scouting that landed a young Rollins, Utley, Howard, Hamels, Madson, Chooch etc.
However, they neglect that Cliff Lee came via a trade and then later by signing. Roy Halladay came via trade and Roy Oswalt? Via trade. So even with that unprecedented core, you still had to make a huge investment in order for it to become what we’ve seen over the past five years.
The best teams in the Majors are the ones that develop major league talent and keep major league talent. The teams that don’t have the payroll flexibility or the management desire to do this are the 1995-2002 Philadelphia Phillies-esque teams or the 2009 Tampa Bay Rays(The Rays after making the World Series didn’t qualify for the post season that year.)
In other words, you can either completely suck or compete once in a blue moon. But because of the Phillies payroll and their fans, they can build a competitive team night in and night out.
by LeQuan Glover on Sep 23, 2011 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions
This may be your most coherent post ever. It’s not entirely right, but it’s an improvement.
1. It’s too early to call anything “overhype” in regards to Brown, as his rookie number are actually very, very comparable to Utley and Schmidt in their rookie years (I’m not making that up, go look). Not every player is Ken Griffey Jr. from day 1 of entering the Majors (In fact, even Griffey was fairly average his rookie year compared with his next several seasons). People really need to chill the F out on Brown.
2. The Rays didn’t make the postseason in 2009, but let’s not be dishonest and make it sound like they turned into the Orioles. They’re in a tough division, and they’re more than competitive.
3. Present performance is no guarantee of future success. I doubt any regulars on here are sure Cosart and Singleton will be all stars in 5 years. The general consensus seems to be that we should have given up less. Having cheap, young players like Worley, Bastardo, Brown, Mayberry is what allows you to go get guys like Lee, Halladay and Oswalt. Nobody operates without a budget.
4. Do you seriously think there are teams without the “management desire” to develop and keep Major League talent?
5. Cash is no guarantee of success. The Cubs play in a larger market, sell out all the time and are in a good location. They’ve stunk for 2 years now and have had several stretches of crap over the years. There’s more to running a team than throwing cash at people.
Venters has given up 6 extra base hits this season. 3 of them were to Vic and Ibanez.
Vic is 3-9 against him lifetime Ibanez is 4-9 he’s struck each of them out once.
Pence has faced him twice. K’d once, walked once.
He owns Howard. 2-13 lifetime with 6 K’s.
He owns Utley 1 hit, 1 walk, 2 K’s in 8 attempts.
Venters Pitches to Utley and Howard and Pence, Ibanez or Vic batting 5th makes no difference.
Its pretty much the same with just about any lefty, If Vic is hitting 5th.
Vic Hits lefties better than Pence. The RHB hitting 5th arguement is moot, if you’re comparing it to Vic in the 5th slot.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
actually no.
I’m just really tired of the “we needed a RH Bat to protect against situational lefites to hit 5th arguement” because its pure bunk. Especially when at the time the only person in the major leagues hitting LHP better than Victorino was Jose Bautista.
You are entitled to your opinion, and I respect it, believe it or not. But don’t throw out opinion thats not true.
Pence is very good against LHP, but people know that. He also strikes out at a 4 times the rate he does against LHP against RHP. People also know that.
And nobodys scared of Ibanez Lefty or righty. batting 6th.
The lefty faces howard either way. difference is with Pence batting 5th the lefty DOESNT FACE VIC. And Pence gets a RHP in that situation.
It’s actually opposite of what you think now, as oppposed to before.
Its why Pence should be hitting 3rd, and Utley 2nd, and Vic 5th.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
Thanks for saving me the time, because this was my reaction. It doesn’t seem that this is an appropriate measurement to determine the truth value of the question.
If a team is 50-50 and acquires a starting pitcher who goes 7-3 while the rest of the rotation goes 23-27 in the next 50 games, the fact that the team is now 80-80 doesn’t mean the new pitcher didn’t help. I acknowledge that not all wins/losses go to the starters and that wins may not be the best indicator, so pick a pitching stat that suits you. The point is that the measurement in this article fails to take into account the performance of the other players before and after the trade.
by flyersfaninchicago on Sep 21, 2011 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Possible alternate title to consider:
Fun with small sample sizes
To add one point that is threaded throughout the comments, yes obviously other players’ performances have dipped so as to keep the team at the same level despite Pence’s added contribution. But, keep in mind, what Pence’s acquisition has done is keep Mayberry as a fourth outfielder. Who knows what he would have done given full playing time over Pence’s 49 games.
And to those who wonder what the point of this post is, it’s to deflate the egregiously inflated view that Pence has been the team’s savior. This was a great team before he was acquired, and it has been just as good with him.
"egregiously inflated view"
Can you point these quotes out? I’ve been on hiatus, so I haven’t seen them. But have people REALLY been saying that he has been the savior? Cause, David, I know you aren’t really trying to createa strawman to fight, are you?
For Who? My teammates.
For What? To Win.
How Much? Where do I sign?
I cant recall seeing anywhere that Pence has been the team savior. I think most people realize this team was headed to the playoffs without him. Fair or not this trade will be largely be judged by what Pence does in the playoffs. If he has a monster run in October and the Phils win it all the narrative will be RAJ made a genius trade that resulted in a championsip. Hopefully we’ll be debating whether thats correct or not in November.
I also think most people realize that the team was headed to the playoffs regardless. However, I think a lot of people tend to wildly overstate the amount by which Pence improves the team’s % chance of winning playoff series. I’m sure the % goes up a little, but I have heard many express the view that this team could not have won without fixing the “hole” in its roster that Pence filled.
Here’s my take because you all want it so damn much.
I (respectfully) disagree with David’s premise to the extent that I think Pence has been a great asset and upgrade thusfar this season (which I don’t think it’s something David disputes, and in fact espouses).
We’re left to argue unknowable and unprovable things, which David acknowledges. Would Victorino have gone into his horrible slump without Pence? Would Brown and/or Mayberry have improved significantly with more playing time, closing the gap between their performance to date, and Pence’s performance going forward? How would Howard have performed; could have been better, could have been worse.
In the event every “unknowable” went BAD, Pence’s “knowability” provided stability. Brown could have spiraled down the crapper (like he did in Triple A), Mayberry could have been badly exposed playing full time, etc. Pence is a known quantity who has probably outperformed his real talent level, which has made up for some horrible slumps from Victorino, Utley, and Howard.
So. Now I guess I don’t disagree with David that much, except that I can see the value in having an established Major League talent in that position, rather than guys like Brown and Mayberry for whom you are hoping for the best.
Definitely in a whirlwind of hindsight/predetermined outcome arguments here. It’s perfectly valid to express an opinion that Pence has been valuable to this team in light of his teammates’ slumps, but it’s hard to say that those slumps definitively would have occurred but for Pence’s presence.
Now I’m just ramblin’.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
I enjoy this blog so much because it says things that a majority of this fanbase are afraid to think, or say
top notch work
I eat sentimentality for breakfast, but stats stop me dead in my tracks
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Sep 21, 2011 2:33 PM EDT reply actions
My next piece – how cheesesteaks and soft pretzels suck!
by David S. Cohen on Sep 21, 2011 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m always up for objective analysis in the face of a subjective majority
I eat sentimentality for breakfast, but stats stop me dead in my tracks
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Sep 21, 2011 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I actually love soft pretzels. And a good chickensteak makes me happy (I don’t eat red meat and don’t like cheese on my sandwiches). So, no go on that piece.
by David S. Cohen on Sep 21, 2011 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I love Cheesesteaks, but it’s hard to get a good one away from Philly. The two places here that make them add mayo. There’s no mayo on a Cheesesteak.
I live in Central NJ and I ask them to make cheesesteaks on garlic bread to make them edible.
"Call me dumb, call me stupid, whatever. I block shots."
His Name is Mudd http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lo-WjUjzV_Q
@boknows71
The one place down here is guys from Philly who get Amoroso rolls, so that’s good. The steak is good. You can Get Whiz, Provolone or American, so that’s good. But they put on Mayo. That shit’s unconscionable.
I love mayo, and will get it on a hoagie sometimes (NOTE: I am neither Italian nor a Philadelphian), but on a cheesesteak it’s just weird and unnecessary. Mayo is a sandwich lubricant, and a cheesesteak has plenty of grease to accomplish the same thing.
I love cheesesteaks but I think I would rank them third on the pantheon of quintessential Philadelphia sandwiches.
1. Italian hoagie. 2. Roast pork. 3. Cheesesteak.
That’s at the high end, though – when each is at its best. If you’re eating the median type of each sandwich, then I think cheesesteaks tend to be the most “consistent.”
Reasons why central PA is so much better
1. Hog maw
2. Pig’s feet souse
3. Chicken pot pie
You are all missing out.
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Sep 21, 2011 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Will these links open to new window or will I have go all rotary phone and reload the page with all the fabulous acitve-x controls,or whatever the fuck runs those “ads” that slows down my ‘puter. Your kinda mixed bag with that. Sometimes your links open in new windows, over times they don’t.
When adding a link, click the “Open in a new widow” box right above the submit button.
I agree with jreed, they should just make that automatically open in a new window. It’s one of the annoying features of SBN.
I’m not a SABR geek like many here but Isn’t the WAR of good but not great player like 2-3 games? And for 49 games that means the delta should be like 1 game. So all things being equal shouldn’t we expect 1 game over replacement and considering Domonic Brown is probably better than a replacement that shrinks to…almost zero. Am I way off base?
But we replaced Raul for next year, so that’s cool. And we upgraded at DH if we make the WS. That’s fine by me.
No doubt, Pence makes the team better (for the 8/2011-9/2013 period in the aggregate). I don’t think anyone’s saying that Pence himself is a net negative. Clearly he’s a positive.
The problem is that the criteria for a bad trade isn’t getting back a negative asset. It’s getting back an asset (whether positive or negative) that’s worth less than the price you paid for it.
not only that….It’s not like Pence filled a glaring need for the Phillies. what he brings to the table is a lot of what the Phillies already have. While Pence’s numbers are no doubt good it’s not like they’re a dramatic improvement over what the Brown/Mayberry/Francisco aggregate would have been if they had gotten more PA’s in Pence’s stead.
Welcome to the City of Brotherly Love, now GTFO
by Veni Vidi Vici on Sep 21, 2011 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Where else do you add WAR at the deadline?
Ignoring “should,” where else do the Phillies add offensive WAR at the deadline if not the OF?
SS? 1B? C? 2B? 3B? Ok, maybe 3B, but who was available that was reasonable, good, and maybe a medium-term addition (not just a rental)? At the deadline, the positions where they were closest to 0 WAR were the corner OF slots.
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Sep 21, 2011 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I think there was a case to be made for picking up a reliever.
Joecatz argued for this, I believe. Heath Bell?
Pretty much. My arguement was actually that we didn’t NEED to add offensive WAR, we needed to add another arm, mainly because of the question marks surrounding Lidge, Contreras, Blanton, Oswalt, and at the time Madson (not to mention Bastardos injury tendencies and Stutes inevitable regression).
But I was a proponent of that more because I didn’t think Oswalt was going to get abck to where he is, I didn’t (and still don’t) have faith in Worley as anything more than a 5 inning guy in the post season as a 4 starter, and more importantly, I thought that adding another arm that Charlie would rely on would keep him from overworking the big three, MAdson and bastardo in tight games down the stretch.
I was right about Bastardo, Contreras and to an extent overworking Hamels.
I wrong about Oswalt and Madson.
Jury is out on Lidge still, and We’ll never know regarding Worley.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
In the playoffs, I’ll take WPA over WAR.
I've tried 'em all, I really have, and the only church that truly feeds the soul, day in, day out, is the Church of Baseball.
by Mace Chutney on Sep 21, 2011 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions
That said,
knowing what I know now, seeing what Pence has done, (and I’ve admitted that I was dead wrong about what I thought hed contribute. Hes exceeded my wildest expectations, and I don’t think you could have added a better offensive piece at the deadline than him…)
I would still have added an arm like Adams or Bell over a bat at the deadline, and I still think that in the end, if theres a defining moment in the postseason, its going to come in the form of a homerun off the bat of an opposing team late in the game against Lidge, Stutes, or Bastardo, not off the bat of Pence.
I have nightmares of game 7 of the WS against Texas, Seeing the starter in trouble in the 7th or 8th, getting lifted for Lidge or Bastardo or Stutes, and seeing Hamilton take one deep to go ahead, and then have to face Koji, Adams, Or Feliz….
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
I don’t think anyone is arguing that was the logical spot to add WAR, more that adding was necessary at all.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
I’m with you on the “should” issue.
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Sep 21, 2011 5:36 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
well put.
And if we happen to get to the WS, the last line about the DH upgrade is the real wild card in this whole thing.
One of the things that really hasn’t been mentioned in all this is what Pences addition does in that regard, especially against tough Lefties like Sabathia, Lester, Wilson, et al… It certainly makes us more flexible both offensively and more importantly, defensively for three games if you choose to play Mayberry over Ibanez in the outfield.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
That’s a really speculative potential benefit in a transaction with pretty obvious multiyear effects that honestly swamp it. Not saying that it isn’t valid, but there’s got to be a huge cap rate on that.
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Sep 21, 2011 5:38 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Some of the posters are indicating
that one of the questions that we should ask is “how much worse would we have been without Hunter Pence.” I don’t know how easy that question is to answer, but I suppose it would revolve around removing the effect of the right-fielder on team stats both before the trade and after the trade, and then comparing them. There may be a false equivalence with the win-loss record before- and after- Pence, and perhaps the problem is that not ENOUGH “funny math” was done.
We do know Pence has put up 2.3 fWAR (Wins Above Replacement) since joining the Phillies. That’s how much he has been worth to the Phillies. As for what the Phillies would have done with another body, it is difficult to say, though the Phillies outfielders on the team before the Pence trade were at least replacement level.
Writer at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
Brown = 0.1
Ibanez = (0.4)
Mayberry = 2.1
Victorino = 5.2
Francisco = (0.8)
Pence = 2.1
Excluding Pence, they are 7.4 right now. At the time of the trade, it was probably pretty much = (replacement level + Victorino)
An OF total WAR of 6.0 suggests “starter” level players (2.0+ for 3 starters, subs at 0.0 (replacement) or lower). So, the outfield prior to Pence was far from replacement level.
You are technically correct in writing “…they were at least replacement level,” but that is damning with faint praise. They were actually clearly and obviously much better than “replacement level” largely as a result of Victorino’s career year.
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Sep 21, 2011 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
But…
What astonishes and sticks out to me is that Mayberry has put up virtually the same amount of WAR as Pence in half a season, most of which came since the trade…
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
His UZR in left is off-the-charts good. I find it a little hard to believe. TZ is also awesome though. SSS.
Hard to imagine that Mayberry’s normalized UZR could be anything other than monstrously better than Ibanez’, though.
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Sep 21, 2011 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s like 55 runs worth of difference though. That’s just so monstrous that I don’t think I can buy into it.
Incidentally, there’s also a huge split between Ibanez’s UZR (which is really bad) and his TZ (which is no more than a shade below average at -5). I remember this was the case earlier in the year, but I was expecting them to converge as the season went on, and they haven’t. If anything, the gap has gotten wider.
I guess I think the truth about Raul is somewhere in the middle, but closer to TZ. He looks like a bad fielder out there, of course, but then again, he’s always looked like a bad fielder, and his UZR’s, while below-average, have never been that bad in the past.
I did hedge with “normalized”
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Sep 21, 2011 5:40 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Be on the offense
Hit John Lannan ASAP, before he can strike again. D:
by JamesFromPhilly on Sep 21, 2011 4:04 PM EDT reply actions
Cliff's the man for the job
He always gets in that pre-emptive strike.
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Sep 21, 2011 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions
First strike
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Sep 21, 2011 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah
Then hit him again with a pick-off throw.
by Cormican on Sep 21, 2011 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Just walk him, then throw the pickoff and have Howard Rochambeau Lannan.
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Sep 21, 2011 5:41 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I don't know about this
Just a rough comparison the 49 games preceding Pence’s arrival with the 49 games after doesn’t tell us much. Maybe someone already made this argument (I’m too lazy to read the entire thread), but what makes that an apples-to-apples comparison? How do we know that the 49 games after Pence’s arrival were against the same caliber teams?
You could suggest, for example, that the 49 games after Pence’s arrival were much tougher – i.e. the pitchers were tougher, the teams better, etc. – and that Pence buoyed a lineup that would have normally performed poorly in those circumstances. That would nullify the point David is making.
Until you can show that the two samples are similar, this argument is not solid.
The argument is stupid
Pence is obviously a great ballplayer and will be even better in the coming years. When he was with the Astros every time he got up he tore-up the Phils. Watch him become a 30 to 40 home run hitter under Charlie’s tutelage. The divisional dynasty will continue with a few World Series rings probably too.
by Grantham Taylor, Hughes on Sep 22, 2011 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Something everyone is forgetting here. Hunter Pence runs so goofy, even Steven Seagal laughs at him.
Welcome to the City of Brotherly Love, now GTFO
Seagal has always been a joke and a woosss.
But Steven Seagal runs goofy too and now old and ugly. All that face work looks awful! Please, it is Hollywood not real life
by Grantham Taylor, Hughes on Sep 22, 2011 12:40 AM EDT up reply actions
To pile on
Observing that the record is the same in the 49 games before and after is an interesting stat. But it is completely flawed to attempt to conclude that he therefore made no difference. Especially on this site, that would seem obvious. As many have mentioned, his impact is their actual wins vs. what their wins would have been, which is much more accurately measured by WAR than their W-L record earlier in the season. In addition, regardless of whether that was true it’s also premature to decide on the necessity of the trade. Wait until the postseason is over and we see how he contributes and until we see what the FA market would have been for a rightfielder, how much we’re saving (if anything) and how that money was spent.
I think it’s actually a fallacy to think that we’ll know whether or not the trade was necessary based on how the postseason turns out. The results of the postseason series are going to be based on all kinds of fortuitous events. It’s chaos theory in action. There’s no way to run a controlled experiment and determine what would have happened in the absence of a trade. Even if, say, the Phillies win in seven games and Pence gets the game-winning hit in the bottom of the 9th in Game 7, that doesn’t mean that they would have lost if not for the trade.
As for the future, that will be a little easier to determine, but only a little. It isn’t just a question of who’s on the FA market – that isn’t the only possible alternate means of filiing the position.
halladay and lee's next starts pushed back one day
Five days rest before their next starts
Then five days rest before their starts in the Division Series
Good decision by Charlie and Dubee
and before anyone starts asking if Oswalt is starting game 3 and why Cole is 4th in the rotation, please remember that game 3 doesnt happen until tuesday October 4th.
Halladay will go game one on 5 days rest
Lee will go game 2 on 5 days rest
Hamels can pitch game 3 on 5 days rest
Oswalt goes game 4 on 6 days rest.
Its set up that way to give Hamels 5 days instead of 6 between his last start of the season and his first post season game.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
Incidentally, while all this has been going on, his ground ball rate has been plummeting. Could it be that he finally realized he isn’t really a ground ball specialist, and that by giving up on that approach, he found his true self? Sample’s too small to draw that conclusion, but wouldn’t that be funny?
He’s not anything like the True Ace of David Herndon
"I remember being three and I wanted to be a baseball player, that's all I ever really wanted to be. That and Spider Man." -Raul Ibanez
by Jose and the Contrarians on Sep 21, 2011 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Not when he does it for someone else next year, after we decide not to resign him.
Well, actually, that would still be pretty funny.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
Only sorta.
I’m actually rooting to keep Kendrick at this point. No idea how long he’ll ride the Railroad of Dubious Sustainability SEPTA (thanks WL), but as long as he’s onboard he provides great flexibility for the staff: rotation starts, spot starts long relief, regular relief.
Plus his wife is hot.
Kendrick
If sliders don’t sink they get pounded. Ask Lidge. Kyle needs a faster fast ball.
by Grantham Taylor, Hughes on Sep 22, 2011 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions
So the Phillies will nontender Kendrick, and then he’ll sign with, say, the Cardinals and post 15 wins and a 3.50 xFIP. I don’t know how I’ll react if that happens.
Especially if it’s all against the Braves, who are pwned by the Cards.
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Sep 21, 2011 5:42 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
If he had pitched 1 1/3 more innings of scoreless baseball, his ERA on the season would have dropped below 3.
If that happens, no way we offer arbitration, imo. He’ll end up getting 4-6 million a year easy.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
“But, as much as that is definite individual improvement, it clearly hasn’t translated to any difference for the team.” In a way, it has, as it has prevented us from being more sucky.
I've tried 'em all, I really have, and the only church that truly feeds the soul, day in, day out, is the Church of Baseball.
Also, using this logic....
Brian Schneider should catch everyday for the Phillies given his 20-something and 4 record when he starts. He obviously makes a difference.
I've tried 'em all, I really have, and the only church that truly feeds the soul, day in, day out, is the Church of Baseball.
Better living through chemistry™
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Sep 21, 2011 5:44 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I think that basically what this boils down to is the difference between “Pence hasn’t made the team better” and “Pence has prevented the team from being worse”, and the majority of people would say that there is indeed one while this piece clearly doesn’t think there is.
I’m gonna guess that no matter how confident you are in Dom or JMJ, you can admit that it’s probably unlikely that either one of them would replicate Pence’s offensive production in the last two months. So saying that Pence hasn’t brought anything to the team, when you consider that he’s probably better than any alternative the team had in the same time span, is hardly fair.
IMO, WC hit the nail on the head in his comment a ways back up, in that guys like Shane, Ryan, and Chase have been struggling and that Pence has protected (pardon the word choice) the rest of the team from suffering from the effects of those slumps. The way that this piece is written, you’d think that everyone else not playing in right field has kept up their usual levels of production and Pence has just done everything that our right fielders had been doing before, even though you acknowledged that isn’t the case.
I guess what it comes down to is that you’re trying to paint this offense as the exact same with Pence as it was without it, when in reality Pence is unquestionably a key reason that the offense looks the same because he’s been great while at least two or three other key players have kinda stunk since the trade.
My apologies for repeating mostly what’s already been said, but figured I’d say it. If your apprehension towards the trade was because we were giving up too much, that’s fair, but if you’re criticizing it based on what’s happened so far in 2011, that’s ridiculous.
by everybodyhitswoohoo on Sep 21, 2011 7:29 PM EDT reply actions
The Phillies won, what, 15 games in a row that Vance Worley started? So… Vance Worley is the Phillies best pitcher.
It's in his wheelhouse!!
Carlos Ruiz, My Nickname is Chooch.
Dissenting Hunter Pence
Maybe, the numbers mete out correctly. But Hunter is young and we will see his difference in the future. He brings an entertaining vibrant vitality to a bunch of pablum bums and it will make a difference in the future. If he stays healthy his youth will extend the divisional crown dynasty and maybe some more World Series Wins. I get tired of negativity like your column. It was a good trade and everyone likes Hunter in Philly. Why don’t you write something positive and get off the negative crap. Columns like yours just bring things down and we don’t need it especially since the general media does the same thing. I like baseball and Hunter is good for it. So, cut the garbage and get on with something good.
by Grantham Taylor, Hughes on Sep 22, 2011 12:31 AM EDT reply actions
Nice Logic
How do you know how the Phillies would have played during the time they have had him if they never acquired him? Unless you know that, which you can’t, your “analysis” has no mathematical credence whatsoever.
Upsetting
David, I fear the title of this piece was so disrespectful that you have angered the baseball gods. Hunter Pence does not correlate with war, the word that his name is substituting for in your play on words. All those references to a great team are indicative of overconfidence. Now that we have beat this into the TGP consciousness there will need to be an appropriate sacrifice to remove the curse placed on this team.
(No, I’m not seriously upset, just a bit worried.)
by phillyinportland on Sep 24, 2011 3:52 PM EDT reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on The Good Phight
Related FanShots on The Good Phight
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Next Game
Philadelphia Phillies
@
St. Louis Cardinals
Saturday, May 26, 2012, 7:15 PM EDT
Busch Stadium
Clear. Winds blowing out to left field at 5-15 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 95.
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Security!: Camden Yards guard collides with Royals’ Mike Moustakas
- The Juice: Nelson Cruz matches career high eight RBIs, Pujols stays hot in Seattle
- Benches clear at Fenway as Red Sox-Rays rivalry heats up
- Keeping good company: Albert Pujols becomes fourth-youngest player to hit 450 home runs
- Giancarlo Stanton misses cutoff man, and Logan Morrison is thankful he did (Video)
