Roy Halladay’s Quiet Season of Greatness
by dajafi on Sep 25, 2011 9:46 PM EDT
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PrintAs you know, Phillies ace Roy Halladay made his final start of the 2011 regular season on Sunday, tossing six scoreless innings against the Mets to help the Phils snap their eight-game losing streak and run his record to 19-6. The Doc lowered his 2011 ERA to 2.35, the best full-season mark of his career, and his three strikeouts on the day gave him 220 for the season, also a career best.
Yet somehow I feel like I missed it. Very few of Halladay’s starts stand out for me this season; on the good side, an early-season game he finished against the Nationals when it looked like they were going to get him and his complete-game win against the A’s during interleague play, on the down side his almost-literal meltdown against the Cubs, when he left with heat exhaustion. By contrast, I could give you detail on a bunch of Cliff Lee shutouts and other starts, a handful of Cole Hamels gems and the happy surprise of Vance Worley, even some Roy Oswalt games as he’s shown signs of finding his form down the stretch. Halladay—quiet, undramatic, remorseless—just wins. My overall sense of him this year is in games when he might not have had his eater-of-worlds stuff, got into trouble early and maybe surrendered a run or two in the first, yet made it through seven innings with two or three runs allowed. Yet the numbers don’t hint at gritty adequacy; they shout utter dominance.
So, for anyone else out there who fears he or she might have somehow failed to appreciate what has to be one of the twelve or fifteen best single-year pitching performances in the Phillies’ long history, here are some notes and highlights from Halladay’s season:
- Doc’s record and ERA by month: 4-1, 2.14; 3-2, 3.00, 3-0, 2.00, 3-1, 2.57; 3-1, 2.62; 3-1, 1.70.
- His highest ERA after any start this season was 2.83, following his third start (a 9-0 loss to the Brewers). Otherwise, he hasn’t finished a start with a cumulative 2011 ERA above 2.57 all season.
- Halladay lost back-to-back starts just once this season, on May 10 and 15 to the Marlins and Braves respectively. His combined line in those two defeats: 16 innings, 3 earned runs (1.69 ERA), 13 hits, 4 walks, 16 strikeouts. Yeah, he probably should have gotten to 20 wins.
- Overall in his six losses, Halladay pitched to a 4.12 ERA, allowed a .260/.304/.367 line, and had 3.33 strikeouts for every walk. Again, those are numbers in the six games where he took the loss.
- In the 25 Halladay starts when the Phillies scored at least three runs, his record was 17-1.
- You know the Phillies won 14 straight Vance Worley starts. They also won ten straight Halladay starts, from May 20 through July 8. To my recollection, nobody made a big deal about this.
- The first hitter who faced Halladay in his 32 starts went a collective 14 for 31 (.452) with a walk. Everybody else went 194 for 838 (.232).
- Halladay failed to go at least six innings exactly twice in his 32 starts. He went at least eight in 13 starts.
- Halladay finishes the year with his sixth straight campaign of at least 16 wins and 220 innings. His record over those six years is 109-49.
Will Halladay win his second straight Cy Young Award for the Phillies and third in his career? Probably not. Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw likely wrapped it up Sunday with his 21st victory of the season to go with a 2.28 ERA and 242 strikeouts. (This isn’t the place for that argument, by the way; I know Kershaw’s home/road splits are worse, he was worse in the first half when the Dodgers needed him most, et cetera. Again, not the point.)
Award or not, though, there’s no word for this but greatness. Six days from now, Roy Halladay will take the ball in Game One as the Phillies start the playoffs; in the fundamentally uncertain world of post-season baseball, I can’t think of anything that could inspire more comfort.
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Roy for CY
How I feel about Roy’s season.
Also, I am glad someone sucked more and had a worse ERA than Halladay with at least 40 IP. Thank you Brian Matsuz and your 10.69 ERA
That’s how I feel about anything Al Bundy related.
It's in his wheelhouse!!
Carlos Ruiz, My Nickname is Chooch.
There have been 14 seasons
in which a pitcher has logged 200+ IP, struck out 200 or more batters, walked less than 40 batters, and had an ERA under 3.00
Of those 14, only 3 pitchers have done it more than once.
Cy Young twice
Pedro Martinez twice
Roy Halladay FOUR times
Halladay hasn’t just been good as a Phillie. He’s been pretty much historically good.
by Fatalotti on Sep 25, 2011 10:39 PM EDT reply actions 9 recs
30 years from now, I’m gonna talk about Halladay the same way my dad talks about Lefty.
by ThinMountainAir on Sep 25, 2011 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s insane. Great, great stat.
by dajafi on Sep 25, 2011 11:42 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Flexible goalposts there, but that is definitely cool. I say flexible, because Cy probably did it with 400IP or whatever, but with Halladay having nearly 30% of such seasons, it doesn’t really matter.
Not sure how much sense that sentence made.
Actually, the two seasons Young did it, it was with 380 innings and 320.2 innings. He also had ERA+ of under 150 both years. The 380 inning season, he went 18-19 with 1 ND, thus demonstrating once again how good a measure of pitching ability WINZ are.
Bob.
Yeah… Andy Pettite and Jaime Moyer both have more Winz than Halladay but don’t belong in the same sentence with them… unless that sentence is… Wow Roy Halladay is an astoundingly and embarrassingly better pitcher than Andy Pettite and Jaime Moyer
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Sep 26, 2011 1:52 AM EDT up reply actions
I hate Wins. I just hate them. It’s one of the worst stats possible.
It's in his wheelhouse!!
Carlos Ruiz, My Nickname is Chooch.
Yeah
I see your point. If you go by 200 SO and SO/BB ratio instead of just raw numbers, for example, you add a few pitchers to the list (setting SO/BB at 5, for example).
Still, I thought it was a pretty cool feat. By the way, if you amend the BB limit to 50 BB, you realize that the 2011 Phillies are the only team in history to ever have two such pitchers on the same team with those types of numbers, Cliff Lee being the other.
All in all, those two guys (plus Hamels) more than lived up their reputations this season.
just because i have the gif
and just because haters gone hate
by highsocksorshortpence on Sep 25, 2011 10:57 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
By Fangraphs’ calculation, he had 8.0 WAR this year (up from 6.6 last year). BB-Ref shows it at 7.1 WAR for this year and 7.0 for 2010. .4 HR/9 this year (down from .86 last year). 8.58 K/9 (up from 7.86 last year). And all this awesomeness with a slightly higher BABIP (an even .300 as opposed to .290) and a lower LOB% (77.6 as opposed to 82.7)
BUT, he walked 34 guys this season in 31 starts, meaning that he DIDN’T repeat his achievement last year of having fewer walks than starts (1.34 BB/9 when last year it was 1.08). So he sucks.
by ThinMountainAir on Sep 25, 2011 11:21 PM EDT reply actions
BBRef
hasn’t included this last game. So his WAR will go up to around 7.4 or so.
For his career, he will have around 60.5 WAR. The ‘Marichal’ line is 62.7 and the ‘Kevin Brown’ line is 64.
Another below average season for hallady with 3.5 WAR will put him above Kevin Brown, and up about where Smoltz is at 35. Almost every pitcher with greater than 62.7 WAR is in, save Brown.
Oh, I’d take playoff elimination for the Barves, but I’d much prefer a slow, agonizing and inexorable march towards 162 losses.
Nope, no longer in Canada.
Follow me @BBBMinorLeaguer | 2011 Jays record while in attendance: 12-12 (.500)
by Minor Leaguer on Sep 26, 2011 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Strangely (I don’t know how common this is), even now, 6:13 PM EDT, BB-Ref still hasn’t updated his Player Value for last night’s game. Value is based on 227.2 IP, while all other stats are based on 233.2 IP.
It’s interesting though that even without last night’s game, Halladay leads Kershaw in Pitching WAR, 7.1 to 6.9.
However Kershaw has a 0.8 WAR advantage in oWAR (0.6 vs. -0.2), due to his relatively stellar .492 OPS. He’s certainly a better hitter than Halladay, although Doc is leading the NL in Sacrifices with 16 (up from his dismal 2 last year).
-------
Celebrating over 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1961-2011
Here are some more stunning numbers from Halladay
2.41 ERA: ties career best (that is if you exclude the 1998 season which I am where he appeared in only 2 games and put up a 1.93 ERA; the other year he had the 2.41 ERA was 2005)
2.19 FIP: career best
2.68 xFIP: career best
2.61 SIERA: career best
Folks, I think it is safe to say that we have just witnessed the best year of one of the greatest pitchers in baseball today.
Writer at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
But no perfect games!
Follow me @BBBMinorLeaguer | 2011 Jays record while in attendance: 12-12 (.500)
by Minor Leaguer on Sep 26, 2011 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Heh. It’s funny because he did not get any no-hitters this year and only one complete game shutout, so the perception among many an idiot is that he is not having that great of a year. Or that he is using his grit to compensate for a lack of dominating stuff this year, or something. When actually, this has been his most dominating year by most metrics (those that would argue otherwise might look at the increased walk rate this season).
Writer at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
BABIP above the league average. He was luckier last season but had better numbers across the board this season. And it’s not like last season was all that terrible…
He only won Cy Young.
Writer at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
I have to things to say. First, with 77 pitches in the middle of a three-hit shutout, Halladay should have come back out for the seventh. Cy Young award aside, he’ll have six days of rest before his next appearance. Let him try for the CGSO there.
Second, I think we are truly blessed to have a generational talent headlining our rotation (Captain Obvious’d), and I’m tremendously proud to be rooting for this team.
Disagree. No need to risk injury for a meaningless game. I am fine with the decision to take him out.
I don’t think I would have had him try to go for the CG or anything, but I was surprised he was pulled after 6, with 77 pitches. I was under the impression they were going to leave him at the 90-100 pitch range, to keep his work regular.
I think they really wanted to go Bastardo/Worley/Madson regardless of whatever else was going on in the game.
by topherstarr on Sep 26, 2011 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
After 77 pitches? Let him get to 90 at least! He said beforehand that he wanted his pitch count up to 120 or so to keep up his rthym.
Halladay has thrown 3,488 pitches this year, so far. The injury risk of 10 or 15 pitches is somewhere between crossing the street and eating Chinese food.
by Phrozen on Sep 26, 2011 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
but not crossing the street AND eating Chinese food, because not paying attention to traffic while crossing the street is quite dangerous.
With that said I’m not exactly opposed to the decision to pull Halladay after six innings. The bullpen guys need some work too.
Sometimes I make a good comment. Sometimes I make a bad one. Really it's all a crapshoot.
by Veni Vidi Vici on Sep 26, 2011 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Kershaw was good, but Roy was just a hair better. There’s something to be said for reputation. It’s not like they are going to go back and say, man how did that Roy Halladay guy win the Cy?
Sure there is, so it’ll be close, but the smart money’s got to be on Kershaw. 21 wins, better ERA, more strikeouts.
Stat-wise folks know Halladay’s been as good or better, but that generally doesn’t count for much in the voting.
We need to remember that all the athletes on the Phillies and announcers who call games work harder than anyone else… we know that because they make more money. Money is always perfectly correlated with work.
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Sep 26, 2011 1:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Great post, dajafi
When Halladay was traded, I said to a Phillies fan that he is probably the most consistent pitchers I have ever seen. Well I was wrong. He just keeps getting better and better. Cheers to a long playoff run for him this year!
Follow me @BBBMinorLeaguer | 2011 Jays record while in attendance: 12-12 (.500)
Halladay has a winning percentage of .671. Among pitchers with at least 200 decisions, only 4 (Sam Leever, Whitey Ford, Pedro Martinez, and Lefty Grove) have a better winning percentage than Halladay. I know that wins and losses don’t mean a whole lot, but that’s pretty incredible, considering that he played so many years in the AL East with mediocre Toronto teams.
Follow me @BBBMinorLeaguer | 2011 Jays record while in attendance: 12-12 (.500)
by Minor Leaguer on Sep 26, 2011 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Uh, Leever, great pitcher but 194-100. Roy is better.
Spalding 252-65
Foutz 146-66
Carouthers 218-99
Are the other three, besides Whitey Ford, Pedro and Lefty. So that leaves 5 with better records, Ford, Pedro, Lefty, Carouthers and Spalding.
The neat thing about Roy is to look at how well he did compared with his team. The Blue Jays were a .480 team without Halladay, and he was still a .667 pitcher. No one has ever done that.
The neat thing about Roy is to look at how well he did compared with his team. The Blue Jays were a .480 team without Halladay, and he was still a .667 pitcher. No one has ever done that.
Steve Carlton went 27-10 in 1972 for a Phillies team that finished 59-97
No, but largely because the Phillies got better.
No one’s gonna stand here and say that Halladay isn’t one of the best pitchers in the game. I’m not sure why you’re arguing.
Ok, what happened? Do you mean the income tax nonsense? I was right in the middle of that.
Was there a more topical argument?
Osama Bin Laden is an Uncle Tom /Hardballed
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Sep 26, 2011 1:58 AM EDT up reply actions
NLDS Pitching Probables based on remaining starts this week
D-Backs –
Gm 1 – I. Kennedy
Gm 2 – D. Hudson
Gm 3 – J. Collmenter or J. Saunders
Gm 4 – let’s be honest
Brewers -
Gm 1 – Z. Greinke
Gm 2 – S. Marcum
Gm 3 – Y. Gallardo
Gm 4 – R. Wolf
(subject to change if Gallardo is bumped from his start this Wed)
Cards –
Gm 1 – J. Garcia
Gm 2 – E. Jackson or C.Carpenter on 3 days rest
Gm 3 – whoever doesn’t pitch Gm 2
Gm 4 – J. Westbrook or K. Lohse or both
Remember when Chase Utley was good at baseball
I’ll be at Game 1 and the more I think about it, I would love to be part of a fan induced Greinke meltdown…he says he’s not one for the big stage…we’ll put that to the test
Remember when Chase Utley was good at baseball
On one hand, I’ve got a lot of respect for Greinke and the issues he’s dealt with. On the other hand, I’d love to listen to that meltdown on the radio.
Go get ’em.
I’m sure all of the Philly fans will be very sensitive to his struggles with depression and won’t push him into melting down and crying…
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Sep 26, 2011 1:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Wait…which fans?
Time is not made of lines. It is made of circles. That is why clocks are round.
-Michael J Caboose
by TheOrangeCone on Sep 26, 2011 2:02 AM EDT up reply actions
You know… the famously compassionate Philly fans who would never make fun of a person’s personal problems in order to psych another team out.
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Sep 26, 2011 2:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Instead of rally towels, the 1st 10,000 fans receive copies of “The Ego and the Id”
Remember when Chase Utley was good at baseball
by DirtyWaters on Sep 26, 2011 2:26 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Maybe they think that because he’s depressed the batteries would give him a much needed charge..
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Sep 26, 2011 2:42 AM EDT up reply actions
I know you’re just joking, but I wouldn’t wish a psych-related meltdown on my worst enemy.
by LeepinLizardz on Sep 26, 2011 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Has there been any word yet on whether the Phillies will take the short series (fewer days rest) or the long series this year? I’m just presuming they’ll take the short series so they can go four deep in the rotation.
Sometimes I make a good comment. Sometimes I make a bad one. Really it's all a crapshoot.
by Veni Vidi Vici on Sep 26, 2011 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I think they did away with that this year.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Sep 26, 2011 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions
and you would be right
Remember when Chase Utley was good at baseball
by DirtyWaters on Sep 26, 2011 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Would you guys rather play the Cardinals or Diamondbacks/Brewers
For the first game?
by FlimtotheFlam on Sep 26, 2011 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s amazing to me how quickly people have become accustomed to Doc and his abilities, and how much they take them for granted. It’s almost like, “Ho hum—this is what he’s supposed to do.”
What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.
sign of an efficient pitcher, imo
Sometimes I make a good comment. Sometimes I make a bad one. Really it's all a crapshoot.
by Veni Vidi Vici on Sep 26, 2011 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Loved the 17-1 stat when the Phils score 3 or more runs.
32 starts. 19-6 for Halladay, 24-8 when Halladay starts for the Phils. so 5-2 in his ND games.
in 22 of those 32 starts he gave up 2 ER or less and averaged 7 innings per start. Phils were 19-3, Halladay was 15-1. So he got a ND in 6 games (4 of which we won) where he gave up two or fewer runs…
in 5 starts he gave up 3 ER. He went 8 or 9 in 4 of them, 4 innings against Chicago. we were 2-3 in those tarts, Halladay was 1-3.
He gave up 4 runs in 4 starts. 7 innings in 3, 8 in 1. we were 3-1. he was 2-1.
In only 1 start, did he give up more than that. 6 ER in 6 2/3 in April against Milwaukee. He was pulled with 2 outs and 2 on, after he gave up an infield single to Prince Fielder, for Herndon. Herndon then gave up a three run homer. Otherwise, its 4 runs for Halladay that day too..
That is just….
There are no words.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
I still want some confirmation that Roy is not a robot!
by Adam Gladstone on Sep 26, 2011 11:49 AM EDT reply actions
I believe we have just confirmed the opposite.
by FanSince1993 on Sep 26, 2011 3:23 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
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