The Season of the Four Aces - A Reflection

by David S. Cohen on Sep 30, 2011 8:00 PM EDT

Going into the season, everyone was talking about the four aces - Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels. The team was going to be historically dominant because of these four.

Well, as we all now know, the team was historically dominant this year, setting the franchise record for wins in a season at 102. But, the team didn't have its four aces for a good portion of the year. Could the Phils have won even more game if it had?

Comparing the games with and without the four aces intact indicates probably not. In fact, the team saw better starting pitching and better outcomes when the four aces were not intact.

The Phillies had an intact four-ace rotation for 108 games, exactly 2/3 of its games. In these 108 games, all four of the pre-season aces were healthy and starting. (This number isn't easily divisible by 5 because of double-headers.) In 54 games, or 1/3 of the season, the team did not have the four ace rotation intact. For much of this time, Roy Oswalt was injured, but Cole Hamels also spent some time on the DL.

Here's a basic comparison of these two periods for the team's winning percentage and cumulative starting pitching stats:

	Games	Win %	ERA	WHIP	K/BB
4 aces	108	0.620	2.93	1.14	3.98
3 aces	54	0.648	2.71	1.06	4.76

As this chart shows, the Phillies won at a better clip with only three aces, rather than four. They also had better overall starting pitching during that period. Of course, with the four aces, the team still excelled and the starting pitching was still incredible. But, thanks to Vance Worley and Kyle Kendrick, the team didn't miss Roy Oswalt or Cole Hamels when they were gone. In fact, the team did even better without them.

This isn't to say that the Phils shouldn't start the four aces in the playoffs. Rather, this exercise merely shows that the team did not suffer because of the extended absence of the pre-season advertised rotation of four aces. And, this also shows that Vance Worley and Kyle Kendrick really performed beyond our wildest expectations this season.

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Comments

interesting info, i wonder how much that 8 game losing streak impacts those numbers.

by BobbyDucati on Sep 30, 2011 8:50 PM EDT reply actions

Vance had an ERA of 3.01 and a WHIP of 1.23. I’d say he performed real well in comparison to the aces.

I do not expect that out of him next year, but I think he will have that effectiveness in the long run.

It's in his wheelhouse!!
Carlos Ruiz, My Nickname is Chooch.

by Dr. Steve on Sep 30, 2011 9:44 PM EDT reply actions

So proud to see KK getting props finally..

lol

by Easedel on Sep 30, 2011 10:55 PM EDT reply actions

I think some of those numbers with all the aces get dragged down because Oswalt had to spend a few starts getting in a comfort zone while coming off the DL, or maybe pitching when he was hurting even. But I see the point. The only numbers you really need to make it are Worley and Kendrick’s though. They performed exceptionally well for being fill-ins.

by kazz on Sep 30, 2011 11:06 PM EDT reply actions

KK's

versitility impressed the most. He’s quite the 5-in-1.

Worely…I think he’s a mutant with time freeze powers. He just stops time and changes the trajectory of the ball right after it crosses the plate so batters can’t swing when he restarts time.

by j reed on Oct 1, 2011 2:12 AM EDT reply actions