All Wet: Phillies 4, Marlins 8
by lizroscher on Sep 4, 2011 12:31 AM EDT
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For some reason, the one hour and thirty eight minute rain delay didn't clue me into the fact that tonight's game was going to be one of those games. The new feature Ask The Booth should have clued me in a bit more.
It was just an odd night all around. It looked like the Phillies were going to take control early, scoring three runs on four hits in the second inning. Wilson Valdez, who was hitting .379 with runners in scoring position coming into the game, hit a two-run triple. Cole Hamels followed that up with an infield single that brought in another run, making it 3-0. Hamels gave up a two-run home run to Mike Cameron in the bottom of the second, and then a monster second decker to Mike Stanton (who else?) in the third. Hamels again helped his own cause with an RBI single in the fourth. He was responsible for half of his own run support, and managed to turn a shaky start into a solid one.
When Antonio Bastardo came on in the bottom of the eighth, a feeling of trepidation came over me. Tonight's appearance was his third in three days. Bastardo walked both Omar Infante and Logan Morrison before being yanked for David Herndon. (LoMo came into the game for Mike Stanton, who tweaked his hamstring while running to first base.) It was at this point that things began to get a bit surreal. Gaby Sanchez, who has hit just .209 since the All-Star Break, came up and hit a three run home run, giving the Marlins a lead with a score of 6-4. Then Mike Cameron steps in and jacks another homer, his second of the night. After Bryan Peterson grounded out, Greg Dobbs came in to pinch hit. Dobber has done some damage against the Phillies this year, and continued to make me hate him by hitting the third home run of the inning, and the fifth of the night. Despite showing some signs of life in the ninth, the Phillies couldn't mount a comeback.
It should be noted that before tonight's three homer meltdown, Herndon hadn't allowed a run in 11 straight appearances. Something else that should be noted? As I mentioned above, tonight was the world premiere of Ask The Booth, a new interactive activity/Pandora's Box for the Phillies broadcast booth. By tweeting a question to the Phillies account with the hashtag #askthebooth, you can have your question "answered" on air! I really don't think the media guys over at the Phillies have any idea what they're getting themselves into. May God himself have mercy on their souls.
Behold, the Fangraph of zzzzzzzzzzzz...
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All you have to do is do a Twitter search for #askthebooth and you will see exactly what they are getting themselves into. It’s pure hilarity at its finest.
Writer at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
someone needs to repeatedly send in the question about how wheels obtained the nickname, Muffin
18 and counting...
While they didn’t answer it, I got this from someone else last night.
https://twitter.com/chickphila/status/110180796035375104
Could our long national mystery be answered?
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
Hehehe- gold… I think this could be cool if the right questions are picked. It is an interesting take on the e-mailed in questions some of the other radio announcers take (have been doing an audio tour of the league this year).
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Sep 4, 2011 1:30 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
DW Random Fish Cutural Reference Lexicon Mith-o-meter reading: Mellish
here’s a link for those unfamiliar with the fish slapping dance….which has a certain symmetry to the game tonight.
18 and counting...
Oh, come on. He provided half his own run support and left with a one-run lead! That thing should be at least on the right!.
Totally agree!
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Sep 4, 2011 10:17 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
he didn’t really pitch that well…he couldn’t locate his fastball and had a flat change up for the first few innings…he got better as the game went along and ended up with a decent outing.
18 and counting...
I know it was still raining in the early parts of the game. Could the ball being wet/slippery have had an effect- from AtBat it didn’t look like Nolasco had any better command, just more luck at getting the Phillies to swing at garbage.
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Sep 4, 2011 11:13 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I know it was still raining in the early parts of the game. Could the ball being wet/slippery have had an effect- from AtBat it didn’t look like Nolasco had any better command, just more luck at getting the Phillies to swing at garbage.
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Sep 4, 2011 12:55 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Poor Fuqua, he wrote such a compelling and persuasive article about the abilities of David Herndon, but now the mouth-breathers will be out in full force for Herndon’s blood again.
SHOULD OF PUT IN STUTEZ!
"Don't regret the rules I broke, and when I die, bury me in smoke."
by lifer711 on Sep 4, 2011 12:56 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I know Herndon’s peripherals suggest a different story, but it certainly has the feeling that he has an imploding tendency. I can honestly see why he’s perceived the way he is amongst Phillies fandom. Of course, maybe I’m just being pessimistic after watching my college football season end in week one.
"What's gonna happen is that you jerk off the ball. You almost want to let this guy here jam you, and if it comes, it comes." Gary 'Sarge' Matthews
He is perceived that way because you remember his nights like tonight but do not remember that before tonight, he pitched 11 straight scoreless innings and the last time he pitched before tonight was August 26.
Writer at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
It doesn’t help that Charlie feeds into it by only using Herndon when:
A. It’s a blowout (for either team) or:
B. No one else is available.
But Herndon never seems to give up one run. He always seems to surrender them in bunches. (And you’ll notice I’m being careful and saying “seems” because I don’t have the stats in front of me.)
"What's gonna happen is that you jerk off the ball. You almost want to let this guy here jam you, and if it comes, it comes." Gary 'Sarge' Matthews
by Senor Octubre on Sep 4, 2011 1:04 AM EDT up reply actions
This.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not the biggest Herndon supporter, but he is treated a bit unfairly at times. The guy is a very useful bullpen piece, he has a power sinker, and his slider keeps getting better. Sometimes guys have nights like this, I’m glad he got it all out in one night, and hopefully he can start another scoreless streak.
To your point of how some Phillies fans see him though, I think it has a lot to do with first impressions unfortunately, which is completely ridiculous, but totally plausible when you consider the thought process of certain individuals.
Think back to Spring Training when Stutes was all the rage, everyone (myself included) wanted Stutes over Baez for the final roster spot, that didn’t come to fruitition, but eventually Stutes did get his shot, and as I recall did very well his first few times out, getting a few key strikeouts, showing off a solid fastball, and nasty slider. People took to him pretty quickly, Herndon on the other hand, was a Rule V guy and everyone was bitching about even having him on the roster, and it seemed like he was always slighted for that reason. It also didn’t help that when he gave up runs, they were in bunches.
The fans I’m referring to pretty much have no use for peripherals or sabermetrics in general, that’s just my perception. Since Herndon was hit hard when he first came up, he’ll never be as good of a pitcher in their eyes, or given as much as rope as Stutes who was decent when he first came up. I know it sounds completely ridiculous, but I really think that’s what it is.
"Don't regret the rules I broke, and when I die, bury me in smoke."
Yes. People just remember what sticks in their heads, and when you get a critical mass of that stuff, it turns into groupthink. What sticks in people’s heads has very little correlation with what’s actually typical or important.
Agreed. It’s funny because even talking about it makes me feel, in a weird way, like I’m understanding their thought process, and that disturbs me, but you get what I’m saying lol.
This is the kind of shit I’m talking about though, from csnphilly.com posters:
Joey021036 minutes ago
If our starters dont get us into the 8th inning we are in trouble period. Whats the point of having Kendrick and Herdon in the bullpen if you cant use them. There are 5 RP in AAA that i would chose on my team before Herndon. Aumont,Zagurski,DeFratus,Schwimmer,Perez.
PhillyPhan521 hour ago
Note to Charlie Manuel: Only use david herndon when the phillies are either up by 7+ runs or trailing by 10+ runs…..Note to Ruben Amaro: PLEASE leave david herndon off of the postseason roster or better yet designate him for assignment like you should have done months ago when you were getting rid of dead weight bullpen players (such as danys baez)…..Seriously why is herndon still on this team???
bradco1 hour ago
Charlie sure pressed the wrong buttons tonight.. The only thing good to take from tonight is that it may make Charlie wake up and realize Herndon can only be used for mop up duty.. Herndon’s recent scoreless streak is deceiving because none of those outings come in pressure situations.. Lidge was the better move over Herndon. He has the ability to pitch out of jams and get strikeouts despite his shaky control. Oh well, tomorrow’s another day and Atlanta lost tonight..
"Don't regret the rules I broke, and when I die, bury me in smoke."
Is bradco1 discussing the Lodge we know and love?
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Sep 4, 2011 1:34 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Lidge- bad auto-correct!
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Sep 4, 2011 1:35 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
It also doesn’t help that Herndon has had a few incidents where errors and the BABIP fairy have just killed him- as a pitcher who does not have a huge K rate (although this has improved over time), he relies on inducing ground balls AND having those balls fielded cleanly. Some of the so-called “implosions” have been times when he has not truly pitched badly, just been unlucky (think about the Cubs game, and last year’s 16 inning game against Houston).
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Sep 4, 2011 1:45 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Now look, I can understand the Herndon supporters on this site being caught in various phases of denial after last night’s fiasco, but there’s a point where one goes way beyond the point of absurdity. Herndon’s BABIP went down last night, for God’s sake. He gave up three hits and all of them left the ballpark. I’m not sure that the first two have even come down yet.
His WAR this season, even counting his 11 scoreless appearances, is -0.4 in just 45 innings pitched. His ERAOJHFRA * this season is 1.80. He’s a work in progress, and while I’m not ready to give up on him yet, I’m getting exasperated at the number of people on this site who are in complete denial at his performance so far in 2011, which has been dismal by any objective measure.
- - Earned Run Average On Just Home Freaking Runs Alone
Rather than cluttering up a now-old comments thread, njns, I invite and urge you to write up a longer fanpost laying out, in full, the best argument you can possibly make in support of the proposition that “Herndon’s performance so far in 2011 has been dismal by any objective measure.” Maybe we’ll even frontpage it, so that we can call everyone’s attention to it and give you a rigorous peer review. I’m sure a guy who learned at the foot of Bill James will be able to put together a persuasive argument with solid statistical support.
Issues I look forward to seeing you address in such a fanpost:
1. What are the proper “objective measures” for pitching performance?
2. What are the statistical criteria below which a pitcher has, by 2011 standards, performed “dismally”?
Maybe we can even do a point/counterpoint. Consider it a sort of TGP symposium through which we can give full consideration to the views and insights of such a learned guest as yourself, njns.
You don’t have a goddamn clue about what you are talking about and you have already proven yourself in previous threads to be a fucking dishonest piece of shit. Frankly, it’s not worth responding to all the bullshit you squeezed out into that one post.
He had a bad game. If you can’t see why that should not negate all the good work he had done for the majority of this season, you are even more of a stupid fuckhole than I had anticipated. Remember this game?
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TOR/TOR201107030.shtml
The Phillies had a pitcher named Cliff Lee on the mound who also happened to give up three home runs in one inning. Shit happens. I should have expected a motherless fuck like you to show up the one night Herndon gets roughed up after being dominant for three months and start spouting nonsense.
The Good Phight, NotGraphs, fun!
Once again: His WAR in 2011 is -0.4, almost a half game below replacement level, in just 45 innings. He has given up nine home runs in the span of five complete games. His VORP is about -4. These are stats for the entire season, which (ahem) include all his good outings as well as bad.
Cliff Lee also gave up three homers in an inning, but his season WAR including that awful outing is +5.7. So comparing Lee to Herndon is probably not in your best interests there, son, as you’d be cherry-picking facts without looking at the entire picture. That’s not unlike you, of course, but it’s particularly unrecommended in this particular situation.
Yep boys, you’ve shown once again that the only rule you care to adhere to in a debate is Maier’s Law: “If the facts do not conform to our theory, they must be disposed of.” :-)
Do you even have any clue how pitcher WAR is calculated on fangraphs?
Do you even have any clue why WAR is generally not considered useful for relief pitchers?
Because you certainly aren’t illustrating that you have even a working understand of the stat, what it is normally used for, and the data that goes into it.
Also, son, my reason for including that example, which apparently you are too fucking dense to understand, is to show that even very good pitchers occasionally get hit hard.
"If the facts do not conform to our theory, they must be disposed of."
Yep boys, you’ve show once again that the only rule you care to adhere to in a debate is the Playground rule: “If I accuse them of doing exactly what I have done since I first interjected in this debate, maybe no one will realize how wrong I am.”
The Good Phight, NotGraphs, fun!
I can’t wait to be educated.
njns, when you write up your fanpost, I’m sure you will extend the courtesy of acknowledging, accurately describing, and then specifically addressing all counterarguments to your position. Don’t worry, I fully understand that the only reason why you came nowhere close to doing so in this thread was because of the space constraints you were facing.
Look, FM, if it’s not already apparent, I am simply yanking yours and TacoPal’s chains. The fact that they’re so eminently yankable, and that you guys respond to it as reliably and humorously as Pavlov’s dogs, makes this a modestly entertaining pastime. But continuing to bait you would serve no useful purpose, so I’ll lay off for now. I’m not that sadistic.
As I type this, Herndon is struggling through the 11th inning, but he’s pitching aggressively and I like what I see. He’s bouncing back nicely from last night’s debacle, and a short memory is a plus for any late-inning reliever. There, that fly ball stayed in the park — three outs. Good job. We’re probably going to need another inning out of him, so I hope he’s up for the challenge.
Guys, I truly…I’m not trying to be condescending here though I know you’re likely to take this as such…when I see your posts on TGP, I see myself many years ago. (OK, I never called a debate opponent a “motherless fuck”, but I’ll leave you to contemplate that achievement on your own.) I can advise you quietly that you really don’t want to go down that road. I swear it.
I’ll let you have the final word (not that you’d ever let me have it anyway ;-)) Martinez is on second and I’m hoping the Phils can rally. Peace.
by njns on Sep 4, 2011 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
njns, I have full confidence that your continuing nonresponse to our requests to see your arguments spelled out at greater length doesn’t indicate a fear of peer review.
If it would allay any such fears that you are harboring, I would even promise, at your request, not to write any comments on your fanpost. I understand from your comment above that you believe me to be an unfair interlocutor (which I’m sure is your honest opinion of me and not just a way of using bluster to avoid debating on the merits). Regardless, however you may feel about me, I’m sure you will agree that the general commentariat here at the The Good Phight is composed mainly of fair and open-minded individuals, and so you will have no fear of receiving their feedback to your thoughts.
Not that you had any before, but you have officially surrendered any and all credibility.
The Good Phight, NotGraphs, fun!
I hope this isn’t an indication that you are somehow proud of a "victory " in this exchange.
by phillyinportland on Sep 5, 2011 3:32 AM EDT up reply actions
One of the precise reasons why comments like njns’s are so poisonous to a blog is that there can be no “victory.” His comments are made in bad faith and have no genuine content, so there are no sincerely held beliefs to rebut. Their sole intent is to disrupt the conversation, like vandalism. That requires corrective action. Wrestling with pigs may get you dirty, but at times it’s necessary to ensure that they don’t continue to be a disruption.
What taco pal said.
People who come here to engage in honest discussion will be treated with respect.
Willful ignorance and outright trolling will not be greeted kindly.
The Good Phight, NotGraphs, fun!
Of course his BABIP went down last night, a home run is not a ball in play.
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
I know- however, the fact that he had three balls in play turn into outs while no balls in play turned into hits does in fact lower his BABIP by increasing the denominator (total balls in play) while not increasing the numerator (hits- home runs).
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Sep 5, 2011 12:03 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
As I said last night, this is what happens when you throw the same guy three days in a row, and hand the ball off to the guy who hasn’t pitched since 8/26.
Charlie “managed the pen” ok last nit ( meaning he pulled bastardo when he should have, and brought in the right guy to follow) the results were a direct result of gross mismanagement.
This is what happens when you overuse some and underuse others.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
I agree with most of this, except that I don’t think it’s fair to call it “gross mismanagement”. I’d call it fairly normal management—in that most other managers, if not all, would have done the same. That doesn’t make it right, but for me it removes the “gross” from it.
I think using relievers three days in a row is normal management, and having set guys who setup and close is also normal. I don’t agree with it, but I can see how the latter, especially, can put a manager in a bind. Herndon hadn’t been used in a while—rain delays, deep starting pitching, close games meaning Bastardo and Madson will do that.
A little more creative managing of the bullpen would use Herndon instead of Madson or Bastardo even when those two are rested, to give other arms in the bullpen experience in higher leverage situations, but when not over-rested. It is the rare manager who will have enough faith in secondary relief pitchers to bring them in to close out games when the closer/setup man they’ve designated is rested and ready to go. The problem becomes when you have three or four close-able games in a row, in which case those guys become over-used, and your Herndons have by now become under-used.
Last night was a somewhat atypical night, too, in that on any other normal situation, Hamels probably pitches the 8th. But then Bastardo is probably still your guy in the 9th.
I guess, look at it this way:
Thursday: off day
Friday: Herndon pitches 1 1/3 innings in relief of Oswalt (Stutes & Madson also pitch)
Sat/Sun: rain
Monday: Bastardo/Stutes/Madson in relief of short leash Hamels
Tuesday: Lidge/Schwimer in relief of Halladay (blowout)
Wed.: Madson 3 pitches in relief of Lee
Thurs.: Lidge/Bastardo/Madson in relief of Worley
Friday: Stutes/Bastardo/Madson in relief of Oswalt
Tell me when you would have used Herndon instead of one of the others prior to last night. I can imagine a couple of spots, but I maintain it’s not so easy as we make it think. Herndon was bound to be over-rested (esp. for a sinker-baller) when he finally got used. And as for using Bastardo three games in a row, I don’t know that I would have brought him in, but I can’t say for sure. And I’m not convinced three games in a row is such a bad thing. (I also think it’s the Phillies policy to have 3 games be the limit.)
I might have went to him instead of either of the times Stutes was used or either of the times Lidge were used. I know those were close games, but Herndon has been at least as effective as Stutes (and heck, had the better ERA and lower peripherals).
Three games in a row is sort of normal as a limit for late inning pitchers, so long as they are one inning guys. The only way that they really made a mistake in using Bastardo last night (as opposed to a good decision that did not work the way one would have hoped), is if you take the positon that because he has worked over two innings in the past two days (1.2 innings on Thu.) that he should have rested- and there may be something to that.
Also- Herndon has went on extended rest a couple of times before (7 and 9 days this year) without ill effects. It may not be ideal, but it is part and parcel of being a middle reliever in th Phillies organization.
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Sep 4, 2011 10:27 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Halladay went out for the 7th on tuesday with a 8-0 lead. How he didn’t use Herndon there (or instead of Lidge or Schwimmer) is kinda wonky.
I was more referring to Thursday, though.
Worley had a 6-1 lead going into the 7th. He was looking gassed, and was about to come into the 3rd time through the lineup. They started hitting him harder 2nd time through. He let him go cause he wanted him to get to Bastardo in the 8th.
Didn’t happen. But Worley, really, shouldn’t have even gone out for the 7th, and now its a 2 run game. So he brings in Lidge… And has to bring in Bastardo. And if we didn;t go 1-2-3, I’ll bet he would have thrown Stutes in the 8th, not Herndon.
Thats my point. When you are up 8 games in the division, you don’t throw worley back ojn the mound with a 5 run lead in the 7th. You bring in Herndon or Stutes, to get them work. Cause he’s not doing it with Cole, Lee, or Halladay.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
Well, it’s not at all wonky that Halladay went out for the 7th. Halladay Lee, Oswalt, and Hamels are not being removed before the 7th unless they need to be pinch hit for, have very high pitch counts, or have been ineffective. And that’s not a bad thing.
However, you make a good point about the Worley game. Probably would have been a good time to bring Herndon in, and there’s no need to stay with Worley there, for the reasons you state.
My overall point is simply that these guys make errors in judgment, mistakes, but they’re not grossly incompetent, nor grossly mismanaging the pitching staff.
I really hate games where we give up 3 homers in the 8th inning.
by youaretheman26 on Sep 4, 2011 1:08 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Those are the worst.
Might as well just hand them over.
by All ur Aces R Belong to Us on Sep 4, 2011 1:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Has that happened in any inning other than the 8th this year? I don’t remember any others except for the Cliff Lee vs. the Blue Jays 8th.
by philsandthrills on Sep 4, 2011 1:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Jonathan Pettibone
2.0 IP (?), 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 0 K, 0 HR
9 BF, 3 GB, 3 LD, 3 FB (1 pop)
Lisalberto Bonilla
5.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 5 K
21 BF, 8 GB, 0 LD, 5 FB (1 pop), 1 SH
Colin Kleven
5.0 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
24 BF, 8 GB, 5 LD, 6 FB (1 pop)
LHV with a 1 game lead on the Gwinnett Braves. Not sure on the tiebreaking situation.
by philsandthrills on Sep 4, 2011 1:58 AM EDT up reply actions
no tiebreakers in the IL, apparently - goes to a playoff
I like that they’re competing vs. Braves affiliate
I’m still trying to figure out why they didn’t walk Sanchez to try and set up the DP
18 and counting...
How dare you question The Gut?!?
"Don't regret the rules I broke, and when I die, bury me in smoke."
Personally, I like the Memphis Dry Rub. What kind of ribs does The Gut™ prefer?
Time is not made of lines. It is made of circles. That is why clocks are round.
-Michael J Caboose
by TheOrangeCone on Sep 4, 2011 2:52 AM EDT up reply actions
In a sense I am relieved the Phillies lost. I really want a sweep of the Braves and a ten game winning streak while they do happen is unlikely. Unfortunately I know it doesn’t work like that, but I can hope.
As for the game itself, I blame Bastardo[or whoever decided to use him when he shouldn’t have been available, whatever the case may be]. Walking a batter trying to make out is just about the worst thing you can do. It was probably the case that he never should have been used; if he was completely available Charlie would have left him in til hell or high water. Once Herndon came in the odds were at least 50% that he’d give up at least the tying run. Three homeruns looks bad, but if he had held them to just a single it would have been the same loss. Of course I also forgive Bastardo, because he is god.
What really troubles me is that if Charlie used Bastardo in the 8th, that might mean that he was set to use Madson in the 9th. For the fourth straight day. With a nine-game lead in September.
Admittedly, it’s also possible that he would have used Lidge in the 9th instead.
Actually TP, he wasn’t going to use Madson, quote from Charlie:
Manuel went to Herndon after Bastardo because he was saving Brad Lidge for the ninth inning. Manuel said he was trying to stay away from Ryan Madson, who had pitched three days in a row. Madson should be available on Sunday, but Bastardo will likely get a day off.
"I’ve got a lot of confidence in Bastardo," Manuel said. "I figured we’d use him there and rest him [Sunday]. We’ll have Lidge and Madson [Sunday]."
"Don't regret the rules I broke, and when I die, bury me in smoke."
Except
If that was true he was gonna use liege to close? I call BS. madson was pitching the ninth.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
why call BS? Madson had already gone three days in a row…. I do indeed suspect Lidge was the closer last night.
I do too (although considering Lidge’s recent outings, his effectiveness in that job is up for debate).
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Sep 4, 2011 10:28 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Because when was the last time Charlie used Madson or bastardo in the 8th inning when one of them was unavailable to pitch the ninth?
He would have saved bastardo for the ninth if he wasnt gonna use Madson. Thats how the GUT book works.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
He did it in Colorado- Lidge got his hundredth save, Madson was on paternity leave, and Bastardo pitched the eighth.
For all of his bungling of all things bullpen, Charlie is smart enough to know not to use Lidge against a lefty when he has a choice, and with two good lefties to start the eighth and the rest of the lineup more right handed, that meant Bastardo to get the lefties out and then Lidge.
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Sep 4, 2011 12:59 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I believe Charlie because (1) he used Lidge in a similar situation a couple of weeks ago (don’t remember the exact date), and (2) if he was planning to use Madson, he would have taken the up-yours attitude of “Yeah I was planning to use Madson again? You know why? Cuz I’m the manager and I make the calls.” I don’t see a strong motivation for Charlie to bs people here.
Slightly OT, but Nationals’ pitcher Tom Milone hit a HR tonight on the first pitch he saw in his MLB career. I decided to see how often batters have hit a HR on their first pitch seen and it has happened 27 times including tonight. But what REALLY struck me was that 8 of those 27 batters were pitchers.
Not so much when you think about. Of that sample of batters who hit a HR on their first pitch seen who’s more than likely to get a 1st pitch meatball than a pitcher batting his first time.
Wow- that is way odd.
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Sep 4, 2011 1:49 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Last AL pitcher to do it was Esteban Yan for the Rays, in 2000. From Wikipedia:
On June 4, 2000, Yan hit a home run in his first major league at bat, on the first pitch. He also had a single in his next at bat, the only other of his career, giving him a 1.000 batting average and a 2.500 slugging percentage.
Name that team's fan confidence poll?
18 and counting...
by DirtyWaters on Sep 4, 2011 1:47 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
They might be Giants?
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Sep 4, 2011 1:53 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I think this kind of sucks, personally. The Giants would have been the best possible opponent in the first round.
3rd order win% ranks the Giants ahead of the D-backs, actually. As does 2nd order win%.
by philsandthrills on Sep 4, 2011 2:02 AM EDT up reply actions
By both metrics, the D-backs are 10 games above where their record should be, by far the most in the majors.
by philsandthrills on Sep 4, 2011 2:05 AM EDT up reply actions
So, honestly, I disagree. The D-backs are at least as easy an opponent for the Phillies as the Giants would’ve been. Assuming, of course, that the D-backs don’t pass the Brewers somehow.
by philsandthrills on Sep 4, 2011 2:08 AM EDT up reply actions
The differences are minuscule though. If you have a tiny difference in 2nd order and 3rd order WP, and a large difference in 1st order WP, I’d rather face the team that has the better 2nd order and 3rd order WPs.
Perhaps, but it depends on how much you weight one vs. the other. Regardless, there isn’t a stark difference in talent between the two teams, so it’s not really something to worry about.
by philsandthrills on Sep 4, 2011 2:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I don’t think it’s a big deal or anything. It only moves the needle a little bit for me. I do think it would be foolish to celebrate about the flip in the standings though.
I’m mostly glad the Carlos Beltran ended up on a team that isn’t going to the playoffs, rather than say, the Braves.
by philsandthrills on Sep 4, 2011 2:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Both he and Boras
have to be pissed. Boras set that up so he could showcase in the postseason. Instead he showcased another dl stint and probably watches from home.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
Another thing that none of those standings keeps track of is change during the course of a season. Obviously you need to use entire seasons because adjusted standings are a comparative tool and the point of them is to determine how “real” the actual standings are. But if your goal is to determine which team is actually better at this moment, using Opening Day as your cutoff is fairly arbitrary. The Giants have been getting worse offensively throughout the course of the year, which isn’t surprising since they lost Buster Posey midway through the year while Beltran’s been injured and sucking since he came over – but none of their adjusted standings, including the second- and third-order standings, accounts for this. The squad that matters is the one that would be on the field in October, not the average of what’s been on the field from April through September.
Alright, then going by August, given that the August teams are fairly close to what the playoff versions would look like, the D-backs hit to a 90 wRC+ in August, while the Giants hit 70 wRC+.
Pitching wise, the Giants had a 3.57 FIP and a 3.50 SIERA, while the D-backs had a 3.90 FIP and a 3.81 SIERA.
by philsandthrills on Sep 4, 2011 2:24 AM EDT up reply actions
But even that doesn’t totally equate to the playoffs, as Aaron Rowand had 51 PA with a .147 wOBA for the Giants (Holy crap), while Kelly Johnson had 61 PA with a .206 wOBA.
by philsandthrills on Sep 4, 2011 2:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Yep! Before today’s game, Cole had a wOBA of .148.
by philsandthrills on Sep 4, 2011 2:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Actually, the only Phillies pitcher below that mark is Roy Halladay, at .133. Oswalt, suprisingly, is at .153 for the season.
by philsandthrills on Sep 4, 2011 2:34 AM EDT up reply actions
We have a bigger problem. We might as well get use to the Pherengi.
.[.379 RISP + Wilson Valdez] / [RISP is about as stable as a Spinal Tap drummer anyhoo] =
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+
__________________________________________________
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he somehow becomes a better hitter with 2 outs as well…it’s as if he is able to relax knowing the GIDP is an impossibility
18 and counting...
by DirtyWaters on Sep 4, 2011 2:08 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
If we have to lose a few games in September, this was one of the ones to lose. Atlanta lost, so we’re not hurt in the division. The Marlins (unfortunately for them, truly) are not relevant.
It just bugs that Hamels gave a quality start, provided some of his own run support, and Bastardo (though not really all his fault) and Herndon (see Bastardo) coughed up the lead, and then the offense couldn’t come through to secure the game. Hamels deserved better.
Kershaw for the sweep?
the Braves and Phils have both yet to be swept in a 3+ game series this season….last team to do that was the Blue Jays from 92-93
18 and counting...
"Don't worry! Be Harry!"
Everyone, don’t worry, be ‘Harry,’ as in Harry Kalas. Just think of the song “High Hopes” sung at the Bank by Harry Kalas. The Phillies are forty – one games over “500” and leading the Braves by eight and half games as I write this. Last night, it was the third night in row that Bastardo pitched and Madson already pitched three games in four days. I don’t know why Charlie didn’t bring Stutes to pitch the eighth inning and have Lidge close to give Bastardo and Madson rest. Stutes, outside of the shelling he took against the Mets two Tuesdays ago, has pitched pretty well. He has to work on his mechanics as he stated and he will be a solid addition to the bull pen. Down the stretch, I hope Charlie and Rich Dube manages the bull pen more vigilantly so as to rest it for post season. Also, notice how the same pattern is emerging vis a’ vis Cole Hamels regarding run and bull pen support that happened last year. Cole pitches great for several innings, with even his own run support. After about the fifth inning or so, the Phils’ bats went silent. The bull pen enters the seventh or eighth innings and BLAM! gets lit up like a Christmas tree. And just like that, Cole gets shouldered with another disappointing loss. I know it is Cole, but, every now again, the team is going to have a clunker. Let’s hope they don’t have many of these during the post season.
Can I not think of that god-awful song, please?
BTW, Cole left with a lead, so Bastardo got the loss.
What is kind of surprising is that Herndon, not Bastardo got the Blown Save- if a pitcher is not held ERA responsible for runners he inherits, how is it fair for that same pitcher to get charged with a blown save when the tying run was an inherited runner?
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Sep 5, 2011 12:06 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
It’s because the save rule is monumentally stupid.
A pitcher can get a blown save without throwing a pitch, or can record a save without throwing a pitch.
although, actually, in this case, the save rule being stupid is not a factor…. I think it’s correct that Herndon gets the blown save: he’s in there to shut down a mess. If the mess had been made by the starter, it would be the same, as far as Herndon’s role is concerned. And, while you can get more than one blown save per game, you can’t get more than one at a time.
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