So...Who Starts Game 1?

by BySaam on Sep 5, 2011 9:08 PM EDT

I recently shared my opinion that it seems as though Charlie (!) defers to Halladay in a way that he doesn't quite do with other pitchers, allowing Roy the latitude to essentially leave himself in or take himself out. Will this deference extend to the playoff starting rotation? I'm not saying I'm right, but I would rather see Cliff Lee start Game 1. Aside from starting the better (at the moment) pitcher with the more accomplished playoff resume (the Doc no-no notwithstanding) first, you split up the lefties. Is it possible that Charlie could agree? Does it matter?

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Halladay. It’s really not even a question.

by philsandthrills on Sep 5, 2011 10:09 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

No, seriously though, this isn’t really something up for debate. It’s going to be Halladay.

by philsandthrills on Sep 6, 2011 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions

You know, to me it actually is a question. This is a guy that if we’re counting August is 6-0 in his last six starts, did the same thing in June. Lee has played better baseball than Halladay this season. You couldn’t go wrong with either of them obviously, but take away those early struggles early in the season and Lee’s been in a grove that few pitchers have ever been in. Lee right now has his stuff working extremely well and if it continues, start him game 1.

by LeQuan Glover on Sep 5, 2011 10:19 PM EDT reply actions

Sure it’s a question. A dumb one.

by yolacrary on Sep 6, 2011 7:48 AM EDT up reply actions

Over the course of the season, no, Lee hasn’t played better baseball this season. Taking away Lee’s early-season struggles isn’t really any less arbitrary than taking away his last month’s worth of good starts. Both are having excellent seasons. Up to this point, Halladay is having a better season overall and Lee is pitching better recently. Halladay is still #1 as far as I’m concerned.

by Rujasu on Sep 6, 2011 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions

Thank you for spelling Charlie’s name correctly :-)

As for the rotation, I would put Halladay first, just to keep everyone on the same rest. There’s not really a difference with splitting the lefties up, is there? For lineups, it could have an effect, but I can’t think of a way it would affect a rotation.

Let's go eat...a triceratops. /velociraptor'd

by LeepinLizardz on Sep 5, 2011 10:44 PM EDT reply actions

The rest is very unlikely to be a factor considering the Phils’ lead and the flexibility that will provide coupled with the fact that we don’t know who will wind up pitching the last game. The breaking up of lefties may not matter…but if you show different looks it could prevent teams from getting used to seeing a southpaw over that extended period of time. When you look at the stats as they are now, Lee has the same amount of wins, a lower ERA, more strikeouts, a better BAA , a lower WHIP, and get this, more IP so…

by BySaam on Sep 6, 2011 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions

This will be getting asked more.

because it seems lately, doc looks like he is laboring out there while Cole & Cliff seem to be flowing.

by Easedel on Sep 6, 2011 12:22 AM EDT reply actions

Yeah, Lee looks like he is just very confident and having fun and Halladay looks a bit challanged…

by BySaam on Sep 6, 2011 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Just for perspective, the “challenged” Halladay, over his last four starts, has pitched 27 innings, given up 26 hits, 0 home runs, has struck out 32 while walking 4, and has allowed 7 earned runs.

by phatj on Sep 6, 2011 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions

Right on I feel ya…but Lee is pitchin’ better, no? And there is the sense of pitching uphill a bit versus downhill. I’m real glad that we have both of them, don’t get me wrong.

by BySaam on Sep 6, 2011 12:52 AM EDT up reply actions

At least this year, Lee has had more peaks and valleys than Doc. When Lee is at his peaks, he has pitched better than the Halladay, however, if you look at the entire body of work, Halladay has been the most consistent and by most metrics, has pitched the better season than Lee. And surprisingly, there is not much of a statistical argument for Lee over Halladay.

But to say it in a more politely than taco pal below me, this is a wholly irrelevant question. Not only will Charlie’s answer be Halladay barring injury, but asking which of the top 5 2011 NL pitchers will pitch first for the Phillies in a playoff series where at most each figures to pitch two games is not going to be a make or break decision.

Writer at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.

by Justin F. on Sep 6, 2011 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions

who gives a shit

by taco pal on Sep 6, 2011 9:56 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs

yeah, like you’d go wrong with any of the three starting game one… the only thing you’d do by going with Lee or Hamels is unnecessarily appear to slam Doc

by yolacrary on Sep 6, 2011 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions

Worley for Game 1

by Rujasu on Sep 6, 2011 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Our chief weapon is the element of surprise!

Let's go eat...a triceratops. /velociraptor'd

by LeepinLizardz on Sep 6, 2011 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions

I thought it was fear and surprise.

by phillyinportland on Sep 6, 2011 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions

You mean about posting low minor league pitching lines incessantly...?...

…yeah, I agree, who gives a shit?

by BySaam on Sep 7, 2011 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

No, I was referring to the point of your article. Hard to see how you could have been confused, as it was pretty obvious what I meant. To answer your question, a great many people care about minor league pitching performances. In fact, there’s a fairly popular Phillies blog that is devoted entirely to following the Phillies’ farm system day by day, and one of our very own bloglords is an expert on such matters as well. Are you saying you don’t care about the farm system? Do you think it’s possible to be a knowledgeable fan of a baseball team without caring about its player development pipeline? I’m really curious.

by taco pal on Sep 7, 2011 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions

a great many people care about minor league pitching performances.

/raises hand

In fact, I care a little more about the minor leaguers than the big club right now. The minor leaguers are in the playoffs, dude!

Let's go eat...a triceratops. /velociraptor'd

by LeepinLizardz on Sep 7, 2011 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions

you made a smart ass reply to his fanpost and he in turn made a smart ass post about your posts. i don’t see a need to get all butt hurt about it

by aPHILLYated on Sep 9, 2011 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions

One, you don’t seem to understand what “butt hurt” means.

Two, who starts Game One actually is an uninteresting question, whereas the performances of the Phillies’ pitching prospects is a matter of interest to all Phillies fans. I suppose it’s too much to ask you to think about the merits of topics that are being debated instead of interpreting everything through the lens of dumbass internet bravado, but once in a while it’s a good idea to actually give some thought to which position is right and which position is wrong.

by taco pal on Sep 10, 2011 1:52 AM EDT up reply actions

Well, Taco, it’s not fair to objectively say it is “uninteresting.” After all, many people are interested in golf, stock car racing, lynching, shotgun weddings, 14th century tax law, the specific gravity of helium-three, the average thickness of asphalt pavement in Alaska, and many other tiresome things too uncountable to mention.

by Phrozen on Sep 12, 2011 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

I’d imagine asphalt is pretty thick in Alaska, to keep it from cracking with all the freezing. Though you would know this better than any of us.

Let's go eat...a triceratops. /velociraptor'd

by LeepinLizardz on Sep 13, 2011 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions

It can be pretty thick in some places.

Worker for scale.

by Phrozen on Sep 13, 2011 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions

so… did you have that image ready to go upon LL’s comment… or did you google search it? And if so, how long did it take?

by Chutley's Impressed by Mac's Speed on Sep 14, 2011 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions

I took the picture. Thought of it as soon as I read her comment.

That is the mid-way through the excavation for the Happy Creek Culvert, outside Fairbanks. The asphalt turned out to be almost eight feet thick.

by Phrozen on Sep 14, 2011 2:01 AM EDT up reply actions

Holy crap. That’s pretty cool.

Let's go eat...a triceratops. /velociraptor'd

by LeepinLizardz on Sep 14, 2011 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Most excellent.

But now that begs this question:

Did you sneak in the average thickness of the asphalt in Alaska hoping someone would utter a “lolwut” and you could drop that piece of photographic craziness on them?

by Chutley's Impressed by Mac's Speed on Sep 15, 2011 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions

I’m not that smart, and I’m not that stupid.

/cocacola’d

by Phrozen on Sep 15, 2011 1:47 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

by Chutley's Impressed by Mac's Speed on Sep 16, 2011 2:06 AM EDT up reply actions

yeah you’re right, who gives a rat’s ass about the prospects?

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Sep 7, 2011 8:27 AM EDT up reply actions

not Amaro!

by perfectdepth on Sep 7, 2011 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

well played

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Sep 8, 2011 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions

It doesnt matter at all, because you have no wayto predict how many games you’ll play.

If the NLDS goes 5 games, and the NLCS goes 7, your number 4 starter will get two turns in the WS unless you throw someone on short rest. trying to predict or figure that out is an exercise in futility.

I’m just glad we have the guys we have, when other teams have big question marks past their number 2 starters.

25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark

by Joecatz on Sep 6, 2011 1:54 PM EDT reply actions

If it mattered, and it doesn't

but if it did, I would go Doc, Hamels, Lee right now.

I think it would be a huge advantage to be able to throw Lee in the 1st road game (game #3), and if Doc pitches game 1, it would leave open the possibility of him pitching three times in a 7 game series, whereas it has been reported that Lee doesn’t like to pitch on short rest.

by The Reddgie on Sep 6, 2011 4:17 PM EDT reply actions

I could see this.

"Learning to eat soup with a knife"

by h2o_34_35_44 on Sep 6, 2011 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions

I think we’d have to switch Hamels and Lee if we get to the WS. Games 1 and 2 will be played in an NL park, and 3-5 will have a DH. Lee should hit!

by Metatwaddle on Sep 7, 2011 12:52 AM EDT up reply actions

Not an insignificant point. But Hamels isn’t so bad with the bat either.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Sep 7, 2011 8:28 AM EDT up reply actions

i’ve been thinking about pitchers’ hitting abilities for just this reason. earlier this season, my thought was hamels-lee-halladay in the WS. one, although all three of them are more than capable of a great postseason start, halladay is hands down the one i’d want in game 7. two, this alignment would, apart from aforementioned game seven, match up the home games with the better-hitting pitchers, including lee twice. and three, hamels pre-injury was arguably our best starter up til that point. hamels may have fallen off a bit since, but this setup would still make sense.

in any case, it would be best for lee to get game 2/game 6. more home starts = more chances for him to homer in the WS. as we all know, the phillies have won 100% of the world series in which an SP has homered.

by ABSOLUTLEY on Sep 7, 2011 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions

a phillies SP, that is.

i always strive to be statistically responsible.

by ABSOLUTLEY on Sep 7, 2011 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions

You make some good points

I believe Doc would be able to pitch games 1,4 & 7 and still be very Doc-like, with game 7 being an “all men on deck” game where everyone is available and should he struggle because of the short rest, you make a change pretty quickly. In theory, this would leave Hamels/Lee for the other 4 games, so you are getting your top 3 pitchers to start every game as well, which is a bonus because while Os has the ability to pitch in the playoffs and Worley has been an unbelievable addition who is regressing a little but still pitching really well, Doc/Lee/Hamels have been very close to dominant all year long.

While I would prefer to have Lee pitching the first game on the road, I would have no reservations/doubts/concerns having Hamels pull that duty, allowing Lee to bat in game 2. However, if Lee pitches game 3, he would be in line to pitch game 6, which would be at home and he would get to bat.

So, the question(s) then becomes which would Charlie (!) prefer: Lee hitting in game 2 or game 6 and/or, Lee or Hamels pitching game 3 on the road.

by The Reddgie on Sep 7, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions

No, it would not leave Hamels/Lee for the other 4 games unless both of them pitch their second games on short rest too.

Sending your ace out for three games makes sense ONLY IF either
1. You want to send ALL THREE of your top three pitchers out on short rest, or
2. Your #1 is head and shoulders above your other starters, while your #2-#4 are basically interchangeable.

I don’t think either of those criteria is met for the Phillies. They will go with a four man rotation and they should.

by taco pal on Sep 7, 2011 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah

No, it would not leave Hamels/Lee for the other 4 games unless both of them pitch their second games on short rest too.

I missed this.

by The Reddgie on Sep 7, 2011 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, you could make a reasonable argument for the Phillies meeting #2.

by Cormican on Sep 7, 2011 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Never mind, missed the first half of that sentence in my thought process there.

by Cormican on Sep 7, 2011 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions

(As I start this I see taco pal is making the point very clearly)
The only way you get to start three starters in seven games is by having all three pitch on three days rest, starting with Game Four. Not that it’s unthinkable, but with today’s rotations geared up for an every fifth day cycle it seems almost a requirement that the Game Four starter will be either Oswalt or Worley.
That said, if the pitchers’ hitting ability is a factor in lining up the order, then Hamels, Lee, Halladay, Oswalt as the rotation order would allow Lee, the best hitter, to be the one starter slated for two games in Philadelphia.

by phillyinportland on Sep 7, 2011 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Point taken. Let me ask, how much of a factor should pitcher’s respective hitting ability play in deciding the rotation?

by The Reddgie on Sep 7, 2011 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions

To me, the differences aren’t significant enough to change decisions by themselves. More of a if we can get things to shake out that way thing.

by Cormican on Sep 7, 2011 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree with Cormican’s point of view. I can’t imagine Cliff Lee’s batting ability would push him ahead of Roy Halladay (or any pitcher, for that matter) if that was the pitcher Charlie wants to use.

by phillyinportland on Sep 7, 2011 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions

You know, the other advantage to this would be that if you are DOWN 3-2 goig into game 6 at home halladay can come back on short rest for 6 if they want. Otherwise he lines up for 7.

But I can’t see any scenario where it’s not halladay lee or lee halladay if the previous series doesn’t prevent it.

25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark

by Joecatz on Sep 8, 2011 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions