Why the Phillies need to re-sign Rollins (and Hamels too)
by The Mad Hopper on Sep 7, 2011 1:59 PM EDT
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PrintWe Philadelphia fans have a long history of getting attached to players, only to see them go. It happens so often, I can't even grieve about it anymore. In the past decade, we have seen the departure of the following Philadelphia Sports Heroes: Allen Iverson, Simon Gagne, Brian Westbrook, Brian Dawkins, David Akers, Mike Richards, Jeff Carter, Donovan McNabb, Jeremiah Trotter and Pat Burrell (and to a lesser extent - Brett Myers and J.A. Happ). It also appears we will be losing Andre Iguodala, if the NBA ever ends its lockout. And even though some of the above mentioned players came back, it was never the same. In the era of free agency, it is not uncommon to see players come and go and our attachments and sentiments change. But if you're like me, you always have a special place in your heart for the homegrown talent. I get attached to our draft picks, because we see them develop and we form bonds with them. And when they leave, via trade or free agency, it hurts. I was a wreck when the Sixers traded Iverson. I was a wreck when the Flyers traded Gagne. I was a wreck when Dawkins signed with the Broncos. And if Rollins is let go, I will be inconsolable.
I am focusing more on Rollins because the likelihood of Hamels being dealt is slim and he still has a year of arbitration remaining. Rollins, however, does not. Say what you will about his declining offensive numbers, he is still our best option at SS. His fielding is still on par with the rest of the top-tier SS in the league, his hitting, while declining, is still good enough to justify his spot in the lineup and his speed is still second to only Victorino (and maybe Martinez) in the roster. But he is so much more than that. He is our vocal leader. He is the longest tenured Phillie. And he loves it in Philadelphia. We know he does. He criticizes the fans and we still love him, because he gives everything he has when he is on the field. He is currently the longest tenured Philadelphia athlete. And to hear RAJ talk about him, you'd think he was just a role player. This is my concern, dude. RAJ needs to know the importance of Rollins in Philadelphia. Not just to the Phillies, but to every Philadelphia team. He is beloved by us fans. He is beloved by his peers. He is beloved by hi coaches. And if he leaves, the heart of the Phillies goes with him. And a piece of every Philadelphian's heart goes with him.
I'm not just writing this piece because Rollins is my favorite player, and has been ever since 2001 when he stole 46 bases and the hearts of us Phans. And it isn't because he stuck with the Phillies despite the constant 2nd place finishes. If you'll notice, the season Rollins first came to the big leagues(2001) was the first year the Phillies had a winning record since 1993. And I don't think anyone can question he had a big role in that transition. And he continues to play a big role in every Phillies season, despite the injuries. He is still clutch. He is still fast. He is still a great fielder and good hitter. And he is still the leader, the voice, and the heart of this team. And he will be until the day he leaves. Please, RAJ, don't let that happen.
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The price has to be right. No need to overpay him, despite what he has done for the team in the past. If the price is too high, the team should let him sign elsewhere. It would be hard to take though.
Well, it’s all about degrees. Some overpayment would be fine, but not too much that it hurts the team in other areas. With the glut of young bullpen arms, maybe we can overpay for a few years knowing we can save money in the Pen. But even that isn’t a high cost area.
well, yes, obviously… but the other available options are frankly pretty terrible, other than Reyes, who I’d doubt is a serious option for them
I frankly doubt Rollins is likely to demand something the Phillies are unwilling or unable to pay.
He might not demand a large amount from the team but what happens when a different team blows him away with an offer?
Do I want to keep him? Yeah, for several reasons including the fact that the replacement options are bad. Do you think a contract similar to Jeter’s is too much?
It might be hard to blow him away. My sense is that despite the large advances we’ve seen across MLB in understanding statistics in the past decade or so, players at difficult defensive positions are still undervalued $-wise relative to players at easy defensive positions (Jeter aside). Fangraphs has Jimmy’s contributions so far this year valued at over $16 million. If Jimmy gets Jeter’s contract, it will be an overpay but not by all that much.
As much as I love Rollins, nobody is giving him Jeter’s deal except the Yankees, who wouldn’t. I’m assuming he would be looking for 3 years 36 million at most, and the Phillies would be foolish not to offer that or match anything close to that.
by The Mad Hopper on Sep 7, 2011 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions
He has said there is no home town discount, but I doubt his salary requirements would be unreasonable.
by The Mad Hopper on Sep 7, 2011 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
BTW, the replies have focused more on the contract itself, but, as much as we observe that a team is a business (which it is) and should avoid undue sentiment in making decisions (which it should), I think the fact that the Phillies have won in recent years with that main core of Rollins, Utley, Howard, Hamels, Ruiz, Madson, and Victorino staying together should give those guys some extra value going forward. I mean, yes, if any of them completely falls apart, you have to move on, but as long as they remain valuable players, they remain keeping, within reason. Those guys are still the core of the team. Howard’s contract is one thing, but the idea of replacing him with Fielder (which presumably would have been one off-season target in the absence of Howard’s extension), while attractive in the abstract, does seem sort of sentimentally wrong.
I’m not sure if I’m making sense. Simply, I like team continuity, and I like advanced metrics. The Phillies have been in the enviable position to be able to afford to keep their core together and continue to win. Pretty awesome.
The Phils would be favored to win the World Series next year with Wilson Valdez or Freddy Galvis at shortstop. They played very well without J Roll for much of last year. I appreciate his enormous contributions over the years, as I’m sure Ruben does. But if there are no “hometown discounts,” then there damn well shouldn’t be any hometown handouts. I love Jimmy’s defense but I would never give him three years at around $15 million per right now, no way. “Overpaying” is just that, who does that willingly?
jimmy's fangraphs values, post-mvp season
2008: $25.3 million in 137 G, ~$25.9 million per 140 G
2009: $13.1 million in 155 G, ~$11.8 million per 140 G
2010: $9.9 million in 88 G, ~15.8 million per 140 G
2011: $15.9 million in 126 G, ~17.7 million per 140 G
$15 million actually seems slightly low as an estimate of Jimmy’s present value. Of course, you have to factor in some age-related decline over the next three years if you’re giving Jimmy a three-year contract. On the other hand, $15 million in 2014 isn’t going to be as expensive as $15 million is today.
Also, Jimmy’s a bit of an injury risk these days, but 140 G is a pretty reasonable median estimate. He’ll end up right around there this year. It basically means one DL stint plus a handful of off days.
Basically, I think $15 million per year would be less than ideal, and I’d target something closer to $12 million. But if you ended up having to pay $15 million, it wouldn’t be off the wall either. Jimmy is a pretty tremendous player and he deserves a very large contract.
Hey Taco pal, would you be able to do a post similar to this one:
http://www.thegoodphight.com/2011/4/27/2129943/a-quick-look-ahead-at-the-2012-phillies
Now that we have Pence for the RF and Worley seems like a capable 4th/5th starter?
by Anders Jensen on Sep 18, 2011 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for the suggestion. I’ll see if I can come up with something. Though it might make more sense to do it in the offseason when things are slow around here.
If you wait for the offseason, do you know a site where I can see the projected payroll for the 2012 season? similar to this http://www.eaglescap.com/
by Anders Jensen on Sep 18, 2011 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes! Here it is:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tSSu2Qy8G9pTSsguHAbeu-A&output=html
Of course, not everyone who’s going to play in 2012 is currently under contract. So in order to project the total payroll, you need to do a bit of prognosticating as to which holes will be filled by future FAs and which holes will be filled by prospects developed from the farm. Plus, how much $ the “Arb” players are likely to get.
That spreadsheet was created by the proprietor of this site:
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/philadelphia-phillies_18.html
I would be really happy if we could do Rollins for 3 years 13 million per or 4 years 11 Million per… something in that range. I agree that 3 years at 15 wouldn’t be bad.
I really hope we don’t do something silly like give him the 5 years that he wants at 10 million+ per year.
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Sep 19, 2011 2:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough…I’m just saying I am not in favor of viewing the situation as though Jimmy has all the leverage, because in reality he has less-than Werthian leverage (I don’t think he’d be in as much demand). The Phils won’t fall apart should he move on.
His contributions as I said are very much respected…but he’s already been paid very well for those. His long-term durability is kind of suspect at this point. And…is he willing to potentially bat 7th or 8th in a year or two without bringing any bad vibes to the clubhouse?
At the same time, I love the guy for what he’s done and he is a Phillie through and through to this point so where do you draw the line…?…I don’t know.
Jimmy has been massively underpaid for years. He’s been paid very well only in the sense that all MLB veterans are paid well compared to regular people. Compared to other MLB players, Jimmy has probably been one of the most underpaid post-arbitration-years players in all MLB over the last few years.
Hmmm…last year he got paid $7.5 million for essentially nothing. I don’t want to argue for arguments sake, but why would a business double the salary of an aging player in decline (though I realize his stats are on an upswing this year)? I’m not sure I get that logic.
I think you pay Jimmy because there’s no one in-house as good as he is to replace him right now. Even in decline, Jimmy is the best option if we’re choosing between him, Valdez, Martinez, and Galvis. Like, best by a lot.
I love Freddy Galvis more than most people, but he’s not ready for the bigs yet. At least not full time. I’d re-sign Jimmy for a couple years and let Freddy develop in AAA next year, and maybe later come up to learn under Jimmy. If Freddy develops into an MLB starter (big “if”), he’ll be ready by 2014. Sign Jimmy for a reasonable amount until then.
Let's go eat...a triceratops. /velociraptor'd
by LeepinLizardz on Sep 18, 2011 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes, exactly.
I’d sign Jimmy for three years. If he stays healthy and Galvis develops as we optimistically hope he will, then Galvis can play all year at AAA in 2012 and then be a major league utility man / Jimmy’s understudy sometime after that. Then you can make another decision after the 2014 offseason.
Also
Here’s the list of potential free agent SS this offseason, if you don’t feellike replacing Jimmy in-house:
Yuniesky Betancourt (has an option for 2012)
Ronny Cedeno
Rafael Furcal
J.J. Hardy
John McDonald
Augie Ojeda
Jose Reyes
Jimmy Rollins
Ramon Santiago
Marco Scutaro (has an option for 2012)
Jack Wilson
The only guy I would want as much as/more than Jimmy would be Jose Reyes, and he’s gonna be more expensive than Jimmy. Also, you don’t sign Reyes for just a couple years until Galvis is ready.
Let's go eat...a triceratops. /velociraptor'd
by LeepinLizardz on Sep 19, 2011 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah, uninspiring list…
Hardy signed an extension with Baltimore, btw. Furcal is likely to stay with St. Louis. Reyes will be hugely expensive. The rest? Ew.
J.J. Hardy
Rafael Furcal
The list just got even worse. Yikes. Hey Rube, work something out like YESTERDAY okay?
Let's go eat...a triceratops. /velociraptor'd
by LeepinLizardz on Sep 19, 2011 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s not what I said. I’m just rebutting your statement that “he already been paid very well for” his past contributions. He hasn’t been paid that well for them. Obviously that isn’t the organization’s fault, and they shouldn’t give him extra money now to make up for it. All I was saying is that your statement about Jimmy’s past contributions wasn’t accurate.
Also not accurate: that they paid him $7.5 last year for nothing. Look above you. Fangraphs valued his 2010 contributions at $13.1 million. He was actually massively underpaid in 2010, even though he had (by his standards) a terrible year. That’s because (1) there are so few shortstops who can hit better than Jimmy can even in a bad year, and (2) Jimmy’s a really good fielder at one of the most important fielding positions in the sport.
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