Phillies 2013 Outfield Decision Matrix

There was a good discussion about the outlook for the future of the Phillies' outfield in this recent fanpost by philsandthrills (and the comments) on the Phillies' overall budgetary situation for 2013-2014. I had already been thinking of writing something on this topic and figured I'd just try and come up with a decision matrix.

Here's the basic situation: The Phillies currently have two proven major league outfielders: Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence. Shane is set to become a free agent after 2012. Pence has two years of arbitration eligibility left and will hit free agency after 2013. The Phillies also have two corner outfielders who are unproven but have the potential to be quality starters as early as this year: John Mayberry and Domonic Brown. Finally, they have two potential centerfielders in the high minors: Tyson Gillies and Jiwan James, both of whom should start 2012 at AA.

Now, to define some terms and parameters.

- The columns list the three potential scenarios that could play out in 2012 for the two unproven corner outfielders, Mayberry and Brown (both have success, only one has success, neither has success).

- The rows list two potential scenarios that could play out in 2012 for the two centerfield prospects. "GOJ" stands for "Gillies or James."

- I'd define a successful 2012 season for Mayberry as posting >3 WAR at the major league level (projected over 162 games).

- Brown is likely to begin the year at AAA. I'd define a successful 2012 AAA season for Brown as an OPS in the high .800s or better, with at least passable defense. If he gets called up to the majors, I'd want to see a wRC+ above 105, again with at least passable defense (let's say UZR/150 > -10).

- GOJ would need to have an awesome season, not just a good one, to be deemed ready to start in the majors by 2012. They'd pretty much need to tear the cover off the ball. Like a .390 OBP or better? Not likely to happen, but you never know. I didn't include "both Gillies and James have awesome seasons" as a scenario because it's just too improbable. (In fact, in James' case, I'd peg his likelihood of being ready to start in the majors in 2013 at less than 1%. If he ever makes it, he'll do it as a late bloomer.)






..............................


Both Mayberry and Brown succeed in 2012

....................................................


Mayberry or Brown succeed but not both

....................................................


Neither Mayberry nor Brown succeed

....................................................






GOJ Has an
Awesome Year


Who do we have?
1. Pence
2. Mayberry
3. Brown
4. GOJ

Should we extend Victorino?
No

What else should we do?
Trade Pence or Mayberry


Who do we have?
1. Pence
2. Mayberry or Brown
3. GOJ

Should we extend Victorino?
No

What else should we do?
Nothing

Who do we have?
1. Pence
2. GOJ

Should we extend Victorino?
Yes

What else should we do?
Nothing








GOJ Has a Less-Than-Awesome Year


Who do we have?
1. Pence
2. Mayberry
3. Brown

Should we extend Victorino? Maybe

What are our options?
A. Trade Pence or Mayberry and re-sign Victorino?
B. Move Mayberry to CF and let Victorino walk?
C. Sign a stopgap CF, let Vic walk, trade Pence or Mayberry, and hope GOJ is ready in 2014?


Who do we have?
1. Pence
2. Mayberry or Brown

Should we extend Victorino?
Probably

What are our options?
A. Re-sign Victorino
B. Sign a stopgap CF, let Vic walk, and hope GOJ is ready in 2014


Who do we have?
1. Pence

Should we extend Victorino?
Yes

What are our options?
Start Laynce Nix in LF? Sign a FA? Basically, we're screwed

This is, of course, a simplified model, since in real life these things are on a sliding scale, not binary.

If Mayberry fails this year, I doubt he'll get another chance to start for this team. He's already 28 years old. If Brown fails (but not abjectly), he could still come back in 2013 -- if the team is smart and doesn't bow to public opinion, that is.

Thoughts?

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