Phillies 2013 Outfield Decision Matrix

by taco pal on Jan 10, 2012 1:00 PM EST

There was a good discussion about the outlook for the future of the Phillies' outfield in this recent fanpost by philsandthrills (and the comments) on the Phillies' overall budgetary situation for 2013-2014. I had already been thinking of writing something on this topic and figured I'd just try and come up with a decision matrix.

Here's the basic situation: The Phillies currently have two proven major league outfielders: Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence. Shane is set to become a free agent after 2012. Pence has two years of arbitration eligibility left and will hit free agency after 2013. The Phillies also have two corner outfielders who are unproven but have the potential to be quality starters as early as this year: John Mayberry and Domonic Brown. Finally, they have two potential centerfielders in the high minors: Tyson Gillies and Jiwan James, both of whom should start 2012 at AA.

Now, to define some terms and parameters.

- The columns list the three potential scenarios that could play out in 2012 for the two unproven corner outfielders, Mayberry and Brown (both have success, only one has success, neither has success).

- The rows list two potential scenarios that could play out in 2012 for the two centerfield prospects. "GOJ" stands for "Gillies or James."

- I'd define a successful 2012 season for Mayberry as posting >3 WAR at the major league level (projected over 162 games).

- Brown is likely to begin the year at AAA. I'd define a successful 2012 AAA season for Brown as an OPS in the high .800s or better, with at least passable defense. If he gets called up to the majors, I'd want to see a wRC+ above 105, again with at least passable defense (let's say UZR/150 > -10).

- GOJ would need to have an awesome season, not just a good one, to be deemed ready to start in the majors by 2012. They'd pretty much need to tear the cover off the ball. Like a .390 OBP or better? Not likely to happen, but you never know. I didn't include "both Gillies and James have awesome seasons" as a scenario because it's just too improbable. (In fact, in James' case, I'd peg his likelihood of being ready to start in the majors in 2013 at less than 1%. If he ever makes it, he'll do it as a late bloomer.)

..............................	Both Mayberry and Brown succeed in 2012 ....................................................	Mayberry or Brown succeed but not both ....................................................	Neither Mayberry nor Brown succeed ....................................................
GOJ Has an Awesome Year	Who do we have? 1. Pence 2. Mayberry 3. Brown 4. GOJ Should we extend Victorino? No What else should we do? Trade Pence or Mayberry	Who do we have? 1. Pence 2. Mayberry or Brown 3. GOJ Should we extend Victorino? No What else should we do? Nothing	Who do we have? 1. Pence 2. GOJ Should we extend Victorino? Yes What else should we do? Nothing
GOJ Has a Less-Than-Awesome Year	Who do we have? 1. Pence 2. Mayberry 3. Brown Should we extend Victorino? Maybe What are our options? A. Trade Pence or Mayberry and re-sign Victorino? B. Move Mayberry to CF and let Victorino walk? C. Sign a stopgap CF, let Vic walk, trade Pence or Mayberry, and hope GOJ is ready in 2014?	Who do we have? 1. Pence 2. Mayberry or Brown Should we extend Victorino? Probably What are our options? A. Re-sign Victorino B. Sign a stopgap CF, let Vic walk, and hope GOJ is ready in 2014	Who do we have? 1. Pence Should we extend Victorino? Yes What are our options? Start Laynce Nix in LF? Sign a FA? Basically, we're screwed

This is, of course, a simplified model, since in real life these things are on a sliding scale, not binary.

If Mayberry fails this year, I doubt he'll get another chance to start for this team. He's already 28 years old. If Brown fails (but not abjectly), he could still come back in 2013 -- if the team is smart and doesn't bow to public opinion, that is.

Thoughts?

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Comments

nice post

this makes me wonder if there will be a decision between Hamels and Victarino next offseason. So things may depend a fair bit on the progress of James, Gillies, May, Colvin, etc. James and Gillies are long shots so it may seem like we may be more likely to keep Victarino around. Maybe we have the funds for both..but it’d probably be tight…

by dbeach13 on Jan 10, 2012 1:54 PM EST reply actions

I think it might help a bit to add percentages or rough estimates as to each of the two prospect scenarios and the three Mayberry/Brown scenarios.

by philsandthrills on Jan 10, 2012 1:56 PM EST reply actions

Good idea. Suggestions as to Mayberry/Brown? I’d put the CF odds at 90/10 that neither is ready.

by taco pal on Jan 10, 2012 2:02 PM EST up reply actions

Heh, it’s really hard to say, as the spectrum for Mayberry is so wide. I’d say that I’d put it at an even 50/50 as to Mayberry succeeding, and Brown reaching an .800 OPS seems like around a 70% shot. The defense is obviously a much bigger question, and I’d just be guessing at this point.

by philsandthrills on Jan 10, 2012 2:24 PM EST up reply actions

So it looks like my estimate would be 35% they both succeed, 50% one of the does, and 15% that neither do.

by philsandthrills on Jan 10, 2012 2:25 PM EST up reply actions

High .800’s OPS, that is.

by philsandthrills on Jan 10, 2012 2:30 PM EST up reply actions

Not even sure I’d go that high with Gillies/James. Honestly, they strike me as more Chris Roberson than Michael Bourn. (Okay, maybe that’s a bit harsh.)

by Rujasu on Jan 10, 2012 2:25 PM EST up reply actions

That’s absurd.

by taco pal on Jan 10, 2012 2:38 PM EST up reply actions

At age 23, Bourn went .277/.356/.385 in 80 G at AA and 38 G at AAA.

At age 23, Roberson went .234/.331/.309 in 132 G at Lakewood.

Gillies and James are both 23 this year, and both are probably going to start the year at AA. You really think they’re going to perform closer to Roberson’s level?

by taco pal on Jan 10, 2012 2:44 PM EST up reply actions

In fairness James might. Gillies should be fairly close to Bourn, but it’s a crapshoot since he’s had health issues the past few years. If Gillies of the Phillies can stay healthy, I think there’s maybe as high as a 30% chance that he’s ready to play in Philly in 2013. Frankly, I’d break GOJ apart, since the ceilings and floors are so dramatically different.

by Cormican on Jan 10, 2012 3:30 PM EST up reply actions

I don’t dispute that James is a longshot of a prospect and very different from Bourn. But Roberson was just so much worse.

by taco pal on Jan 10, 2012 3:32 PM EST up reply actions

If I look at the 2 lines, I think James could be closer to Roberson’s, that’s all I’m saying. I still like James’ ceiling, but that A+ to AA jump is really hard, so I could easily see that line from James this year. Doesn’t mean he won’t rebound in 2013 and breakthrough. Of course James would have that line in Reading, so that’s already beyond what Roberson was doing..

by Cormican on Jan 10, 2012 3:40 PM EST up reply actions

Well, right, but that’s what I’m saying. The equivalency of a .640 OPS from Low-A to Double-A has got to be something like .500 at best.

by taco pal on Jan 10, 2012 3:43 PM EST up reply actions

Fair enough, James should beat that. I was looking at the lines more than their equivalencies.

by Cormican on Jan 10, 2012 3:48 PM EST up reply actions

MLB2007 had him rated not too shabbily.

Good arm, IIRC.

by 88Lindros88 on Jan 10, 2012 4:43 PM EST up reply actions

Aaah, yeah, wasn’t thinking of Roberson’s early struggles in single-A. I never really paid any attention to Roberson before he hit Reading, so I forgot about how awful he was early on.

by Rujasu on Jan 10, 2012 10:50 PM EST up reply actions

If the team bows to public opinion, my fist is going up somebody’s ass.

Follow @Michael_Levin

Liberty Ballers

by Michael Levin on Jan 10, 2012 1:57 PM EST reply actions

by Wet Luzinski on Jan 10, 2012 9:36 PM EST up reply actions

The most interesting scenario (and one of the more likely ones) is the one in the bottom left. What do you there? Mayberry in CF seems like the most straightforward solution, but I don’t know.

by taco pal on Jan 10, 2012 2:03 PM EST reply actions

Thats a tough one, especially if most (or all) of Browns success comes at AAA. Suppose he puts up a .900+ OPS at Lehigh, gets a september call up and struggles? Or, gets a call up and just does okay… Will the organization make the commitment to make him the starting LF? I kind of think they would, but its a gamble still.

Personally, I lean more towards resigning VIc in that scenario IF you can get maximum value back for Mayberry, mainly because he’s not a natural CF, and I don’t know if he’ll ever be worth more, but thats me.

Also, I know it’s a different topic, but the scenario is different if Hamels has been extended and at what price, or if he tests the FA market.

Take the 3B situation on top of that and there are a myriad of other possibilites too.

"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP

by Joecatz on Jan 10, 2012 3:25 PM EST up reply actions

I forgot about Pence

I shop Pence and Mayberry both, actually, and if I can get more back for 1 season of pence, I take it.

"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP

by Joecatz on Jan 10, 2012 3:26 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, there are a lot of balls in the air.

Another wrinkle is, what if GOJ doesn’t tear the cover off the ball in 2012 but has a good, solid year – let’s say .370 OBP with good defense and steady improvement in-season. Do they still sign Victorino, or do they become more receptive with living with Mayberry out of his natural position for 1 year.

by taco pal on Jan 10, 2012 3:30 PM EST up reply actions

For me, that actually makes it easier to resign Vic, believe it or not. because now I have him and GOJ as trade bait as well.

never underestimate the overpay back for a true CF with pop.

"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP

by Joecatz on Jan 10, 2012 3:56 PM EST up reply actions

Its a deep FA class next season for CF.. Victorino, Pagan, BJ Upton, Bourn. Everywhere you have ‘extend Victorino’, you can add ’ or sign available FA’ as well.

by Nikk.m on Jan 10, 2012 2:16 PM EST reply actions

I doubt Bourn will be available.

by philsandthrills on Jan 10, 2012 2:29 PM EST up reply actions

I kind of doubt Upton is either.

by Cormican on Jan 10, 2012 3:42 PM EST up reply actions

Eh, Tampa is far less likely to spend on Upton than the Braves are on Bourn.

by philsandthrills on Jan 10, 2012 3:44 PM EST up reply actions

I’d be more inclined to agree if their system wasn’t rail thin in the outfield (of course they have Guyer, who if he can hang every day in LF can shift Desmond Jennings to CF, I suppose)

by Cormican on Jan 10, 2012 3:53 PM EST up reply actions

Upton hits the market unless Tampa trades him and that team inks him long term.

"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP

by Joecatz on Jan 10, 2012 5:47 PM EST up reply actions

Victorino’s probably the best out of the group, but if he has a year similar to this one, he’ll easily be the most expensive. I like Upton too. I think he’d fit in well in this lineup.

Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.

by TheOrangeCone on Jan 10, 2012 2:31 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Was surprised to see that Upton’s still only 27. I know he broke in when he was really young, but perception can play tricks on you.

by taco pal on Jan 10, 2012 3:53 PM EST up reply actions

Based on Gillies’ age and talent, he could be a guy who just gets healthy and “clicks” and could be MLB ready in 2013.

Or he could wash out and never be heard from again.

It’s weird, but I don’t see a lot of middle ground with him.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Jan 10, 2012 2:55 PM EST reply actions

Yeah he’s realy an enigma wrapped in a [etc] right now. Might as well have been in Buck Rogers style hibernation for two years.

by taco pal on Jan 10, 2012 3:00 PM EST up reply actions

I think it’ll also be interesting to see how the luxuray tax limits play into all of this. they don’t bump up until 2014, but the penalty to go over in 2013 won’t be that severe because of that…

"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP

by Joecatz on Jan 10, 2012 3:28 PM EST reply actions

Phillies release Bowker

The Phillies have released outfielder John Bowker to allow him to pursue an opportunity with a team in Japan, the club [said].

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Celebrating over 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1961-2011

by schmenkman on Jan 10, 2012 3:50 PM EST reply actions

end of an era

by taco pal on Jan 10, 2012 3:51 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

one might say, the end of a PERFECT (.000/.000/.000) era

"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP

by Joecatz on Jan 10, 2012 3:57 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

it’s frankly disappointing that he didn’t strike out in every at bat he had with the Phillies

by yolacrary on Jan 10, 2012 4:01 PM EST up reply actions

Clearly Japan hopes this was just due to his low BABIP.

by Cormican on Jan 10, 2012 4:01 PM EST up reply actions

Does anyone remember what the maximum K/BB ratio is in Japan before a player is forced to commit harakiri?

"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP

by Joecatz on Jan 10, 2012 4:54 PM EST up reply actions

David Hale has this list of Phillies players without a hit or walk:

1. Fred Tauby (1937) – 20
2. Bowker (2011) – 13
3. Ches Crist (1906) – 12
4. Ray Stoviak (1938) – 10

He adds…

… Twitter follower @RochesRWinners pointed out one other fun detail that I had known but managed to forget. In those 13 plate appearances, Bowker never so much as hit a ball out of the infield. Here’s the run-down: K, K, K, P-5 (foul), K, K, L-4 (his Phillies career highlight, as it turns out), K, 4-3, P-4, 3-U, 5-3, K.

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Celebrating over 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1961-2011

by schmenkman on Jan 10, 2012 9:06 PM EST up reply actions

The above list excludes the pitchers, who are “led” by Mac Scarce with 18.

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Celebrating over 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1961-2011

by schmenkman on Jan 10, 2012 9:07 PM EST up reply actions

That sounds like a fictional character.

by taco pal on Jan 10, 2012 9:11 PM EST up reply actions

Oddly his last name was also a descriptor of his base running opportunities.

by Cormican on Jan 10, 2012 9:24 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

I’m skeptical of that “L-4”

by yolacrary on Jan 10, 2012 9:39 PM EST up reply actions

Ruben must have bought back the photos.

by Phrozen on Jan 10, 2012 4:23 PM EST up reply actions

by Wet Luzinski on Jan 10, 2012 9:59 PM EST up reply actions

I'm in shock, first Perry loses in NH and now this

GMAT verbal section question, Philadelphia sports version.
In 2015, which one of the following will prove to be a better investment?
(a) Ilya Bryzgalov's contract (b) Ryan Howard's extension (c) Mike Vick's extension (d) Greek bonds from 2009 (e) Papelbon's bloat deal

by Bud in TN on Jan 10, 2012 10:14 PM EST up reply actions

You can hear the cries from Phillie fans across the country

by phillies0100 on Jan 10, 2012 5:48 PM EST up reply actions

we know it wont be this guy

"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP

by Joecatz on Jan 10, 2012 3:50 PM EST reply actions

http://www.thegoodphight.com/2012/1/10/2697467/sayonara-john-bowker#comments

"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP

by Joecatz on Jan 10, 2012 3:51 PM EST up reply actions

systemwide outfielders

MLB: Victorino, Pence, Mayberry, Nix
AAA: Brown, Derrick Mitchell (25/.769AA), Steve Susdorf (26/.902AA)
AA: Gillies, James (23/.690A+), Leandro Castro (23/.785A+)
A+: Anthony Hewitt (23/.687A), Zach Collier* (21/.676A)
A: Aaron Altherr (21/.678A-), Kelly Dugan (21/.730A-), Kyrell Hudson (21/.679A-)
?: Brian Pointer (20/.856R), Larry Greene, Carlos Tocci, Gauntlett Eldemire

Obviously some of these guys only have a shot to ever make it as reserves at best, others are extreme longshots.

by taco pal on Jan 10, 2012 4:06 PM EST reply actions

That’s 2012 age/OPS 2011 level. So Derrick Mitchell is 25 this year, and posted a .769 OPS in AA last year.

by taco pal on Jan 10, 2012 4:07 PM EST up reply actions

I assume * is related to drug suspension pending?

by Cormican on Jan 10, 2012 4:09 PM EST up reply actions

Yes thanks, forgot about that.

by taco pal on Jan 10, 2012 4:12 PM EST up reply actions

I would actually guess:

A: Altherr/Hudson/Pointer
A+: Hewitt/Dugan/Collier

Tocci gets XST, as does Greene. Not sure what they do with Gauntlett. Given his age, I think they’ll want to challenge him, but where? Lakewood, maybe.

by Cormican on Jan 10, 2012 4:13 PM EST up reply actions

Is Castro really going to start in AA? I haven’t heard a thing about him since he got hurt.

by philsandthrills on Jan 10, 2012 4:30 PM EST up reply actions

This just assumes everyone moves up 1.

by taco pal on Jan 10, 2012 4:35 PM EST up reply actions

Ah, ok.

by philsandthrills on Jan 10, 2012 4:40 PM EST up reply actions

It’ll bs interesting to see if James and gillies both end up at reading how they handle who gets the bulk of the CF duties.

"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP

by Joecatz on Jan 10, 2012 5:50 PM EST up reply actions

I guess they could switch off? Or if you have to choose, I’d put James in RF since he probably has a better arm.

by taco pal on Jan 10, 2012 6:06 PM EST up reply actions

I agree. Plus I’m fascinated by the possibilities of a Brown-Gillies-James outfield 3 years from now. The speed would be awesome.

by Cormican on Jan 10, 2012 8:51 PM EST up reply actions

nice to see they're all hard at work

by taco pal on Jan 10, 2012 6:51 PM EST up reply actions

Interesting thing about the internet age. I, like many others, find myself rooting for James, Schwimer, Gillies, etc. because of all the interaction you can get through Facebook, Twitter, etc. 10 years ago, all I knew about Jimmy Rollins were the basic stats, given Jimmy’s personality, it’s a shame, as it would have been great rooting for him in the minors and laughing at his tweets.

by Cormican on Jan 10, 2012 9:29 PM EST up reply actions

Gauntlett Eldemire I wear my tin foil hat for you . You just gotta make it to the bigs with a name like that.

by j reed on Jan 10, 2012 6:18 PM EST up reply actions

So I thought Gilles wouldn’t be ready till much later because of his double whammy hammy issue. Has he fully recovered and been playing in winter leagues?

by j reed on Jan 10, 2012 6:16 PM EST reply actions

Yeah he played in the Arizona Fall League

by taco pal on Jan 10, 2012 6:23 PM EST up reply actions

I loved his tweet a little while back about getting hit by pitches and racking up a high OBP.

by esentman on Jan 10, 2012 6:57 PM EST up reply actions

SEND TO WIP.

A Graphic Organizer may help comprehension…

by teezy33 on Jan 10, 2012 9:57 PM EST reply actions

Madson to the Reds.

by Nikk.m on Jan 10, 2012 11:10 PM EST reply actions

Saw that. Seems to be one year, ~$10M.

by Phrozen on Jan 11, 2012 12:13 AM EST up reply actions

With another good year closing under his belt he might just get 3/34 next season, giving him that 4/44 he wanted all along.

by Nikk.m on Jan 11, 2012 12:15 AM EST up reply actions

Who else is a free agent next year?

by Phrozen on Jan 11, 2012 2:07 AM EST up reply actions

Closers, I mean.

by Phrozen on Jan 11, 2012 2:07 AM EST up reply actions

Nobody decent.

Except for some guy named Mo.

"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP

by Joecatz on Jan 11, 2012 7:19 AM EST up reply actions

Saga of the Phillies OF

One thing for sure I do not think that GOJ will be ready to take over, not unless we have Angels in our OF(lol). I think we will see Mayberry have a breakout season finally and Nix will be the wondering OF for relief. I know it has been stated that Mayberry may play some 1stB, this would be a bad move…you need to leave him in the OF and let him truly get know the OF position.There are 3 other guys if not more that can take care of 1B. Brown on the other hand just does not have the passion to play the game or maybe he wants to play for another team. But the times I watched him play in the OF, he wasn’t charging ground balls he was less then Ave. with his fielding.(no hustle) Just seemed like a lazy guy who knows he has talent but he will only play hard when he wants too!! Thus 2013the GOJ connection might be moved to AAA to play and be a late bring up when the roosters expand. Victorino should be re-signed and maybe shop Pence or shop Brown. I think that Between Pence and Shane there lies a power hitting bat for trade. But if Mayberry plays great and Shane and Hunter money request are not outrages keep them both. Other wise the Phillies will be starting to down grade the team. Anyone have thought about Browns playing?

by Westbrooksgirl22 on Jan 16, 2012 10:18 PM EST reply actions

Nobody cares what you think about Brown, or anything else. If we want to hear WIP groupthink regurgitated to us, we’ll just turn on the radio. No need for you to transcribe it.

by taco pal on Jan 18, 2012 6:08 PM EST up reply actions

Hey Taco Pal

Hey taco pal, I live in SC and don’t even get WIP down here, this is my own thoughts about the guy! I’m a Big Phillies fan and only posted the question about Brown because I believe he is overated or something else is going on with him. There is no need to be nasty to me. I just wanted to know if anyone else was seeing the lazy way he plays? Next time make sure you have facts before trashing someone who thought they could get an answer about what might be Browns problem! Do we really have to be nasty to fellow fans when the world is full of nastiness already?

by Westbrooksgirl22 on Jan 20, 2012 2:23 PM EST up reply actions