Phillies, RHP Kyle Kendrick avoid arbitration, agree to one year, $3.585 million deal.
Before you mess yourself, please read these words from taco pal back in October. There's good reason to believe that we might get something from Kendrick this year.
4 months ago
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swartz 1, murph 0
From the comments on the linked post: Swartz predicted that Kendrick would get 3.2, Murphy predicted 5. So the truth ended up being about three-and-a-half times closer to Swartz’s figure than Murphy’s.
But Murphy was still right about John Gonzalez though
Price is Right rules give it to Swartz.
by Chutley's Impressed by Mac's Speed on Jan 15, 2012 1:58 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Ew
Taco Pal’s incisive and hopeful analysis aside…goo. Do you pay this much for a long man? Or is this major insurance in case we get nothing from Blanton this year/Worley regresses big time?
Yes
Kendrick has a few desirable attributes, chief among them: He stays healthy. He doesn’t walk a ton of batters. He can grind out innings.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
In the comments, The Dark pointed out that the sixth starter can probably be expected to make 12-15 starts. So I guess it depends on whether your long man is also your sixth starter, which, in this case, he is. (Of course, it also depends on whether your long man is any good, which is still an open question.)
I know WAR is problematic for relief pitchers, but there might be more WAR to be had from the long man spot than from any other role in the bullpen other than closer. Kind of funny to think about it that way and it seems counterintuitive, but those guys just throw a lot more innings than set-up men and what not.
Is 3.5 mil for a one year deal arguably an overpay? I don’t know how to value the worth of the services he is expected to perform, but he did make 2.45 mil last year. Facially, it doesn’t seem offensive, but I don’t know.
by Boundforbeach on Jan 13, 2012 1:57 PM EST up reply actions
The years don’t matter because he was due for arb. The amount is roughly what he would have made via the arb process. Pretty much the same result without the mudslinging.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 13, 2012 2:08 PM EST up reply actions
By the current fosters standpoint, if it IS an overpay, it’s the least egregious overpay of the bunch.
by Chutley's Impressed by Mac's Speed on Jan 15, 2012 2:00 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
*Roster’s
Saturday nights and Autocorrect/predictatext do not mix.
by Chutley's Impressed by Mac's Speed on Jan 15, 2012 2:01 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
In 2011 we went into the season expecting to have 4 workhorses eating a ton of innings and leaving some late inning crumbs for the bullpen. This isn’t last year, but Lee, Hamels and Doc should still eat a ton of innings. That would seem to limit the WAR of the long man role somewhat
Again, it isn’t about relief innings, it’s about starts. If the long man is the sixth starter, then the long man pitches a lot more innings than his intended bullpen role would suggest.
add to that nobody’s sure yet how Blanton will bounce back from injury so Kendrick could very well be the #5 starter next year
All things considered, I'd rather be in Philadelphia
by Veni Vidi Vici on Jan 13, 2012 7:44 PM EST up reply actions
Exactly. I think people tend to forget that Kendrick had 15 starts last year, to Oswalts 23, worleys 21 and blantons 8. Basically the four of them combined to be the 4/5 starter, and Kendrick also doubled as the long man.
As far as I remember he’s never missed a game (except when his kid was born) is durable, and might have actually turned the corner. Heck, if he just does exactly what he did last season he’s a bargain.
But don’t be surprised if he breaks camp in the rotation.
So says #catsradamus
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
I am glad that he is back, but really hope that you are wrong on that starting the season in the rotation thing.
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
Blanton, Worley, and Kendrick are (as of now) the 4/5/6 options. Assuming Blanton’s healthy, he’ll be either the 4 or 5 (most likely 4), and Worley and Kendrick will be competing for the 5 slot, with the “loser” being the long reliever. If Blanton’s not ready to go, Worley and Kendrick are the 4/5.
Just as a WAG, I’d estimate it’s 90% that Blanton will be healthy, and 75% that Worley will win the competition in Spring Training, so Kendrick’s got about a 35% chance of being in the rotation at the start of the season.
Bob.
I merely wish that Kendrick’s starts came with commensurately discounted ticket prices.
by Wet Luzinski on Jan 15, 2012 5:30 PM EST up reply actions
They do when he pitches in Miami….
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
Pitch F/x
I had a buddy (Baseball Prospectus’ Mike Fast) who is one of the main researchers of pitch f/x data read the article back in October. Here’s cursory analysis of it (just the pitch f/x stuff.)
It looks like the pitch classifications that MLBAM put on the PITCHf/x data are pretty decent for Kendrick, not perfect, but good enough to work with pretty well. (They are missing his slider, which he doesn’t throw much, and lumping it in with his cutter. No biggie.) So it is true that he cut back on his sinker usage and increased his cutter usage.
But I am doubtful the movement on his cutter changed. Typically pitchers don’t do that, and most of the time when you see that in the data, it is caused by a calibration problem with the PITCHf/x cameras. You can minimize that by only comparing games in the same park, but even then, within the same park, the PITCHf/x camera calibration will sometimes be shifted at some point in time, either purposefully or accidentally.
I haven’t looked into whether that happened in the two starts that the author was comparing, but given that he is comparing a game in Toronto with one in Philly, I suspect that may be the case.
Even if the data is accurately representing a change in movement, we as an analytical community have not been able to establish that a particular movement on a pitch makes a big difference. I think it can, based upon a particular pitcher, and how he works with the location of the pitch and deception of the batter, but there’s no particular formula that says, “add X movement to your cutter, and it will be dramatically better.” Halladay’s cutter moves a lot differently than Rivera’s cutter, which is different from Soria’s cutter, yet they are all effective. Whereas other pitchers with the same movement on their cutter as Halladay, or Rivera, or Soria, are ineffective with the pitch.
Often, changes in performance are tied to changes in command, and it looks to me like that was the case with Kendrick in the second half. He got a LOT better at hitting the corners. Whether he made some mechanical change or other change in approach to facilitate that, I don’t know.
-Mike
by heyelander on Jan 13, 2012 2:33 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
Late on this, but thank you for the contribution to the discussion. Is this published on-line somewhere where we can link it properly?
http://www.thegoodphight.com
Nah, we are buddies over at RotoJunkie and I PMed him when I read the article. The above is what he wrote me back. I double checked with him that I could share the insight and attribute it to him before I posted it.
KK get’s a bad rap, and yes I have ripped him before but for this amount of coin and on a one year contract, I’m good with this.
Ed Snider is a crotchety old fuck.
That is all.
Yeah. Even if Kendrick has become somewhat useful, he’s not likely ever to be worth the kind of money that he’d probably end up getting paid after this year
If he’s useful, then I’d hope we’d be able to get something for him in a trade, rather than nontendering him. If he’s genuinely become a 3.7-ish DIPS guy, then he’ll be a big bargain even on a 3rd-year arb salary, just not as big of a bargain as a rookie.
What I’d almost rather do, if he can maintain that level of performance if replace Blanton with Kendrick in 2013, move Hyatt (or whichever rookie) into the role of long man/6th starter.
Then in 2014, perhaps if we’re lucky, We can have a Lee/Hamels/Halladay(barring catastrophe)/Pettibone/Worley. With perhaps May/Colvin/Rodriguez ready to move into the rotation in 2015.
And the people said.....meh
GMAT verbal section question, Philadelphia sports version.
In 2015, which one of the following will prove to be a better investment?
(a) Ilya Bryzgalov's contract (b) Ryan Howard's extension (c) Mike Vick's extension (d) Greek bonds from 2009 (e) Papelbon's bloat deal
GMAT verbal section question, Philadelphia sports version.
In 2015, which one of the following will prove to be a better investment?
(a) Ilya Bryzgalov's contract (b) Ryan Howard's extension (c) Mike Vick's extension (d) Greek bonds from 2009 (e) Papelbon's bloat deal
It’ll be sort of interesting to see where Kendrick will wind up vs. Brett Myers. The punk’d may become the punker when all’s said and done in their careers.
I take this back, kinda sort of, as Kendrick hasn’t really started as much as Myers did, but as others have noted elsewhere in the thread, he’s been durable. Statistically, so far, Kendrick is kind of a poor man’s Brett Myers. More H/9, fewer Ks, but also fewer HR/9 and way fewer walks. Career WHIPs — Myers: 1.335, Kendrick: 1.386; Career ERA+: Myers 100, Kendrick 96. Oh, and: Myers salary 2012: $11MM, 2013: $10MM (but the Astros are at least on the hook for $3MM to buy him off.)
by Wet Luzinski on Jan 16, 2012 10:29 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah that was a good move for the Yanks… would love to beat them in the World Series.
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Jan 13, 2012 10:40 PM EST up reply actions
Um...
Maybe.
I have a feeling a guy with a 36% GB rate + Yankee Stadium isn’t necessarily going to turn out so great.
by 88Lindros88 on Jan 14, 2012 12:22 PM EST up reply actions
I love and hate it, but Pineda is, what 23, I think. So he may still be able to correct his GB% some. Montero is the bigger loss for them in some regards, he would have been an excellent DH, but in the short term, their Pitching is the much bigger issue.
It was a huge issue to be sure, but it was much less of an issue after the Kuroda deal.
Either way it’ll be interesting to watch.
Maybe....
But in looking at Lookout Landing and Pinstripe Alley for some opinion on the trade, somebody brought up the ballpark adjusted ERAs (said they found them on Baseball Reference, but an independent search has not found them) for Karoda and Pineda as being pretty rough- I believe both were over four. We shall see- very interesting deals at any rate.
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
It's hard to get bent out of shape over a one year deal with no salary cap.
I mean, if he fails, you don’t have to worry about next year. And if he succeeds, he’ll want to stay here. It’s a win win.
It's in his wheelhouse!!
Carlos Ruiz, My Nickname is Chooch.
I read "toboggan"
at a glance—a sled most places, but it means “knit cap” down here in Mayberry. Still have Winter on my mind, apparently. Pitcherz n cathcherz, plz!
"He's a bum...this one stinks...this jerk can't play."-- A father teaching his daughter the Phillies lineup from the program roster, the Vet, c.1998
Holy fuck. It was 38 degrees in Tuscaloosa a couple nights ago, and not once did I complain about it being cold. I’m glad I didn’t.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 14, 2012 10:22 PM EST up reply actions
You’d be surprised, actually. A lot of people do the shorts and t-shirt thing, in the spring, and it’s fun to joke about, ‘cause your balls don’t freeze off in sixteen seconds anymore. The real morons, though, have to act tough, and out-Alaskan others. “Oh, yeah, the cold doesn’t bother me,” they say or, “oh, you just get used to it.”
People die every year here doing that intentionally unprepared shit.
Holy shiteballs… I know you’ve said it before and I’ve forgotten, but where the hell do live, McMurdo Station?
by Chutley's Impressed by Mac's Speed on Jan 15, 2012 2:07 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
but it means "knit cap" down here in Mayberry.
Yes. Very strange. I had a very weird/complex conversation during an ultimate frisbee game a few years ago when a player complained about “losing his toboggan” during the play. No joke, nearly caused an argument.
GMAT verbal section question, Philadelphia sports version.
In 2015, which one of the following will prove to be a better investment?
(a) Ilya Bryzgalov's contract (b) Ryan Howard's extension (c) Mike Vick's extension (d) Greek bonds from 2009 (e) Papelbon's bloat deal
Chooch.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 14, 2012 10:22 PM EST up reply actions
It’s not gay if you high-five.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 14, 2012 1:42 PM EST up reply actions
Of say No-Homo: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F0yFyW7Ysps
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Jan 14, 2012 7:19 PM EST up reply actions
Aaaaaand we have found the next episode of Baseball Friends
Moyer for 5th Starter in 2012.
by Missing Jamie Moyer on Jan 15, 2012 4:55 AM EST up reply actions
Kendrick should use this as his theme music this season.
http://video.search.yahoo.com/search/video?p=check+yourself+before+you+wreck+yourself
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
Where are they going to stash him, though? He is not a relief pitcher, and the Phillies do not exactly need a starter.
Are they trading someone?
Editor at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
It’s a minor league deal, meaning they have all of spring training to figure that out. its a real low risk high reward signing, IMO.
But yeah, if it works out, then someone goes bye bye. Pinero isnt going to spend the year at Lehigh.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
Why not? He probably isn’t good anymore. They should view him purely as an insurance policy, no different than Rodrigo Lopez three years ago.
What actually does worry me is the possibility of Ruben again going with an all-retread rotation at Lehigh Valley. So far he’s signed the following pitchers to minor league contracts: Pineiro, Nate Bump, Scott Elarton, Pat Misch, Ryan Feierabend, David Purcey, and Dave Bush.
Austin Hyatt, Tyler Cloyd, and J.C. Ramirez are only C- prospects, but the first two guys, at least, have succeeded at AA and they should get a chance to succeed or fail at AAA (with Ramirez, I think it depends on how he pitches in ST). Maybe there’s only a 1% chance that they’ll turn into legit major league starters, but 1% is better than 0%. Even if all three guys take up rotation spots at AAA, there’ll still be two places left for retreads (who do have a use, I’m not denying that). We don’t need to see a rotation of five retreads.
Would using a six-man or seven-man rotation at LHV help at all, or would that take away too much development time from the remaining prospects?
That’s just not an option. No pitcher, veteran or prospect, would want that arrangement.
by philsandthrills on Jan 15, 2012 6:47 PM EST up reply actions
Surely it would be better than demoting guys to AA or having them ride the pine or carrying three long-relievers, though, wouldn’t it?
I’ve reread this post four times and I can’t atop transposing retard for retread.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
by Joecatz on Jan 15, 2012 7:35 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah that makes no sense. One thing I just realized with pinero is that he had a pretty severe shoulder issue last year. This may be nothing more than a low risk feeler to see if they strike gold, or maybe a situation where he builds up strength early on and is full bore mid season.
In either case, that combined with your logic above leads me to believe he’s less insurance as he is low risk buy low, dump low or strike gold.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
To clarify a little,
When I said I didn’t see Pinero spending the year at lehigh I meant the whole year. In most instances, a guy like Pinero is gonna have an Out clause in his minor league deal if he isn’t on the ML roster by a certain date. If that’s not the case, dif story. If it is, someone will give him a shot by June or July.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
agreed. but I’m smelling “if this works we can get max value for Worley” more than “If it works we can trade kendrick or Blanton…”
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
Uh, I’m not really seeing that at all Joe.
by philsandthrills on Jan 15, 2012 6:31 PM EST up reply actions
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