The Coming 1B Shortage?

by taco pal on Jan 14, 2012 12:57 PM EST

I don't have any hard data to back this up, which is why I'm just throwing this out there in a short fanpost. But I was clicking through Baseball America's top 10 prospect lists just now, and it struck me that there doesn't seem to be an abundance of top-flight 1B prospects out there these days. Here's a list of every guy in baseball whose primary position is 1B and who's ranked in his organization's top five.

Yonder Alonso, Reds #3 (since traded to Padres)
Jonathan Singleton, Astros #1
Anthony Rizzo, Padres #1 (since traded to Cubs)
Tommy Joseph, Giants #2

And that's it so far. BA isn't done ranking all the teams yet, but I looked at Sickels' lists for the as-yet-unranked teams and it looks like the only guys who might get added to the list are Chris Parmelee of the Twins and C.J. Cron of the Angels. That seems like an unusually short list. My impression is that there's usually a disproportionate number of 1B on these lists, since that's where you put the guys who are only good at offense.

Two caveats: (1) 1B is the easiest position on the field, so some guys move there after reaching the majors -- for example, Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols. (2) There are a number of young guys out there who are still "prospects" of a sort but aren't eligible for these lists because they've hit rookie eligibility -- Eric Hosmer, Justin Smoak, even Freddie Freeman. Still, it seems to me that even in relative terms, the list of 1B prospects is shorter than usual. Maybe that vague impression is wrong -- YMMV. But if it isn't wrong, that could mean that 1B prospects and young 1B are more valuable today than they usually are.

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This is going to sound kinda backwards, but I guess the slugging first baseman has become so common that when clubs obtain prospects with power-hitting abilities and even a slight propensity at another position on the field, they’re going to try them out there initially. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the list grow in a couple of years if/when teams realize that their catching or third-base prospects don’t have the defensive abilities to make it in the bigs at their original positions.

Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.

by TheOrangeCone on Jan 14, 2012 1:25 PM EST reply actions

No doubt some of that will happen, as I mention in the post, but is it more likely to happen now than in the past? I kind of doubt it. If anything, I’m struck by the relative lack of good slugging first basemen in the majors these days.

by taco pal on Jan 14, 2012 1:33 PM EST up reply actions

If you took pitching prospects out of the mix for top five (ie, top five position players, I bet you’d find a few more teams for sure.)

Interestingly enoughSingleton is a prime example of the “shift someone to first base if they have a potential for a bat” kinda guy. Not sure he would have been classified a 1B before this season.

here’s fangraphs rankings for 1B from 2011 http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&players=0

about 50% opf the guys on the list are homegrown, and I count 4 that are young impact players. all , with the exception of Freeman, played for non contenders. (and Belt and Smoak didn;t make the list b/c of qualifierd AB’s…

"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP

by Joecatz on Jan 14, 2012 5:06 PM EST up reply actions

Singleton is not an example of that kind of guy. He’s been a 1B since high school.

by taco pal on Jan 14, 2012 11:42 PM EST up reply actions

the other interesting thing? of the four guys you list, Rizzo is the only PURE 1B, meaning he’s only played 1B as a pro.

Singelton has more time in the OF than at 1B, Alonso, while a natural 1B, has been toyed around with everywhere (basically because of Votto blocking him, but he’ll be at 1B with the Padres) and Tommy Joseph has only playes 26 of his 182 ptro games at 1B, the rest were at Catcher….

So the reality is there are only really 2 real 1B on that list.

interesting.

"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP

by Joecatz on Jan 14, 2012 5:12 PM EST reply actions

Singleton has played 199 career games at 1B and 31 in the OF. He never played any OF at all before 2011.

But it doesn’t matter to the point one way or the other whether these guys are natural 1B or artificial 1B. The point is that BA doesn’t seem to think that that many guys will end up at 1B, which seems a bit unusual.

by taco pal on Jan 14, 2012 11:48 PM EST up reply actions

Has there been a shortage before?

by j reed on Jan 14, 2012 5:46 PM EST reply actions

I feel like there was, but probably just because the Phillies ran stiffs out at first for 10 years until they signed Thome.

by Cormican on Jan 14, 2012 9:01 PM EST up reply actions

10 years?

by Phrozen on Jan 14, 2012 10:21 PM EST up reply actions

Kruk, stiff, stiff, stiff, stiff, stiff, stiff, stiff, stiff, stiff, stiff, Thome.

Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.

by TheOrangeCone on Jan 14, 2012 10:24 PM EST up reply actions

That was just a Phillies shortage though. I don’t know if there was a baseball-wide shortage, which is what I’m talking about here.

by taco pal on Jan 14, 2012 11:45 PM EST up reply actions

I dunno. It would take some research. Research I’m not willing to do….

Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.

by TheOrangeCone on Jan 15, 2012 12:15 AM EST up reply actions

I don’t feel like it really was. Just sampling a couple years, and using a SLG of .500 as a cut-off, because Kruk never reached that high a SLG:

1994: Bagwell and Thomas are 1/2 in OPS. McGriff, Galarraga, Vaughn, Palmeiro, Conine, Julio Franco, Tino Martinez, and Cecil Fielder all have SLGs over .500.

1997: McGwire, Thomas, Bagwell, Galarraga, Thome, Martinez, Vaughn, Delgado, Sorrento, Snow, Segui, Tony Clark, and Tim Edmonds all slug .500 or higher

2000: Helton, Delgado, Giambi, Thomas, Bagwell, Palmeiro, Will Clark, Thome, Galarraga, Sweeney, Sean Casey, Klesko, Segui, and Derrek Lee all slug at least .507. Sexson slugged .499 and Mo Vaughn .498.

Bob.

by The Dark on Jan 15, 2012 12:15 AM EST up reply actions

Ok, you meant the 10 year period immidiately preceeding Thome. I thought you meant in general.

by Phrozen on Jan 15, 2012 12:10 AM EST via iPhone app up reply actions

How much of an issue would it be though? Assume for a moment the case of the Phillies. What if Ryan Howard suffered a bizarre gardening accident and never played again. The Phillies have no 1B prospects (all apologies to the Rizzotti and Overbeck fanbases). However the Phillies have a glut of OF Prospects, including 2 MLB ready players, with power hitting potential to work at 1B (Brown and Mayberry, if his improvement last season is for real). Both are tall, one is an average to above average defender at all 3 OF spots, the other… not so much (yet). Wouldn’t the Phillies simply stop trying Dom in Left and try him at First? Worst case scenario, you move Merberry to first.

Suppose Joey Votto of the Reds, suddenly could play anymore. Wouldn’t the Reds, simply more uber power hitter/hot corner butcher Juan Francisco to first? And, so on.

I understand where TP is coming from, but First base abhors a vacuum. It’s such an easy position to fill, that I find it hard to see any real, legitimate shortage there that would handicap teams, unless there’s a parallel shortage of corner Outfield and terrible fielding 3B prospects at the same time.

by Cormican on Jan 16, 2012 10:56 AM EST reply actions

Speaking of butchers

*Suppose Joey Votto of the Reds, suddenly couldn’t play anymore. Wouldn’t the Reds, simply move

by Cormican on Jan 16, 2012 10:57 AM EST up reply actions

Echoing what was posted above, how many guys actually enter the league as elite prospects at first base? Pujols was a third baseman. Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, Adrian Gonzalez (I think) were all first basemen.

Miguel Cabrera was a third baseman. So was Thome, so was Bagwell. Frank Thomas was a first baseman.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Jan 16, 2012 12:33 PM EST reply actions

Around the league positions as prospects (Last year's starters)

NL East
Howard – First
Freeman – First
Sanchez – Third (switched fairly early, I don’t think it was ever really a long term plan, but he spnt a season’s worth of games there)
Murphy – Third (Davis was always at First, so that may be the better example)
Morse – SS (if you’d rather go Marrero, he was an OF prior to switch)

NL Central
Berkman – OF/Pujols – Third
Votto – First (he was juggled a bit in A-, but was never considered more than a 1B prospect)
Pena – First
Fielder – First
Wallace – Third
Overbay – First

NL West
Huff- Third (If you’re a look to the future type, Belt has always been a First base prospect)
Loney – First
Nady – OF (everyone played first in Phoenix last year, Nady played the most (barely), Goldschmidt is likely long term answer, always a 1B prospect)
Helton – First
Guzman – Third (again, everyone in Southern California played first for the Padres, yeesh)

AL East
Tex – Third
Gonz – First
Kotchman – First
Lind – OF
Lee – First

AL Central
Cabrera – Third
LaPorta – OF
Konerko – Catcher
Morneau – Catcher
Hosmer – First

AL West
Trumbo – First
Moreland – OF (spent a ton of time at first too)
Smoak – First
Barton – Catcher

Pure 1B prospects = 14
OF Prospects = 5
Catchers = 3
Other = 7

50/50 which is closer to an even mix than I expected.

by Cormican on Jan 16, 2012 1:23 PM EST reply actions 2 recs

I think the relevant point is more, what did BA consider them to be when they were prospects? For example, as Joe mentioned above, Tommy Joseph is a minor league catcher, but BA considers him to be a “1B/C” because apparently the writing’s on the wall for him to make the move before he gets to the bigs.

Obviously I take the point that people move to 1B (I mentioned it in the post). And I’m not saying any team will have a vacuum, as in they’ll be like “oh no we can’t find anyone to play first.” My point is that if you DO have a stud 1B prospect, that guy may be more valuable in the near future than guys like that have typically been in the past.

by taco pal on Jan 16, 2012 1:48 PM EST up reply actions

what did BA consider them to be when they were prospects?

Man, you’re just going to kill my afternoon, TP :)

In fairness, I imagine 1/2 those non-1B prospects I listed above were probably guys everyone knew would eventually go to First. (Especially the Catchers who all moved after no more than 2 partial seasons in the minors, not necessarily to first right away though),

Would a pure 1B prospect really be any more valuable though? Given it’s such an easy hole to plug, I wouldn’t expect that.

by Cormican on Jan 16, 2012 1:57 PM EST up reply actions

I don’t see why not. I think that if there are fewer stud 1B prospects out there, that just means there are fewer stud “pure hitters” out there. You can always move someone from another position to 1B, but that won’t turn him into a great hitter. It just means you’ll have someone adequate to cover the position.

Thinking about this some more, I guess what’s important is the reason why there’s a shortage of 1B (assuming there is, in fact, a shortage). If it’s because an unusually high percentage of the stud hitters can also play other positions, then I guess it doesn’t matter. But if it’s because the share of stud hitters who can play other positions is the same and there are just fewer stud hitters out there in total, then it does matter.

by taco pal on Jan 16, 2012 2:10 PM EST up reply actions

I guess what’s important is the reason why there’s a shortage of 1B (assuming there is, in fact, a shortage). If it’s because an unusually high percentage of the stud hitters can also play other positions, then I guess it doesn’t matter. But if it’s because the share of stud hitters who can play other positions is the same and there are just fewer stud hitters out there in total, then it does matter.

I think that’s the basis of what we were disagreeing on. I agree with what you say here, in that I also don’t think it’s zero sum.

Also, in fairness to the argument, I’d say more than half of the non-first base as prospects players I listed above are below average Offensively at First. While among the pure First base prospects only Loney, Trumbo and Overbay are guys who strike me as being poor Offensive players (in the frame of reference of playing First)

by Cormican on Jan 16, 2012 2:47 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks for doing the heavy lifting on this. Interesting.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Jan 16, 2012 1:51 PM EST up reply actions

Very nice.

I was all set to argue with you that Konerko came up as a third baseman. I mean, I was certain! Then I looked it up.

by Phrozen on Jan 16, 2012 6:02 PM EST up reply actions

Dayan Viciedo

He’s been moved around quite a bit through the system, but I can’t see him anywhere other than 1B/DH long-term, and I’m pretty sure the prospect analysts have always seen him as a first baseman.

He’s no longer prospect eligible though.

by Governator on Jan 18, 2012 2:08 PM EST reply actions

The ChiSox seem to think he’s an outfielder. But 5’11", 230 pounds, you’re probably right.

by Phrozen on Jan 18, 2012 3:03 PM EST up reply actions

I firmly believe this shortage can be addressed with a pipeline from the First Baseman Tar Sands in Canada. Everybody gets jobz and gets payyyyyyyd $25M/yr for 5 years, yo.

by Wet Luzinski on Jan 19, 2012 10:26 PM EST reply actions

Canada? CANADA!? Come on, now, WL. I’m insulted. Why not a pipeline from the Arctic National Firstbaseman Refuge?

by Phrozen on Jan 19, 2012 11:33 PM EST up reply actions

Riiight. Pipeline from the land of the Midnight Baseball.

by Wet Luzinski on Jan 21, 2012 1:35 AM EST up reply actions

I am shocked, shocked I say, that you fine gentlemen would let a little setback like a firstbaseman rig exploding cause you to stop exploiting the vast reserves contained in the Gulf of Mexico.

Bob.

by The Dark on Jan 23, 2012 11:00 PM EST up reply actions