Cole Hamels, Phillies Avoid Arbitration, Agree to One Year, $15 Million Deal
by WholeCamels on Jan 17, 2012 12:43 PM EST
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PrintThe Phillies and left-hander Cole Hamels agreed to a one-year, $15 million contract today, avoiding salary arbitration and kicking the can down the road on efforts to keep the homegrown 28 year old in Philadelphia beyond 2012. Per Todd Zolecki of MLB.com, the agreement was reached prior to the Phillies and Hamels' camp exchanging arbitration figures, something of a good sign that there's communication and a good faith meeting of the minds, which may bode well for future negotiations. Hamels earned $9.5 million in 2011.
Hamels is coming off the best season of his Major League career. His 2.79 ERA was eighth best in the National League, and his 4.41 strikeout-to-walk ratio was fifth. His 3.03 SIERA was also fifth in the league, behind only teammates Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, Cy Young Award winning Clayton Kershaw, and former Cy Young winner Zack Greinke.
The agreement leaves only Hunter Pence and Wilson Valdez as the Phillies' outstanding arbitration cases.
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Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 17, 2012 12:49 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
Meh about Hamels or meh about the one-year deal?
"I wouldn’t run if there was a fire. I wouldn’t run anywhere. I hate running." - O. Munn
The one-year deal. Only Pence’s arbitration case remains to be settled, and I’m a little bit concerned they’re negotiating a multi-year deal that takes him a couple years beyond arbitration (which was going to be expensive anyway). And I believe Hamels is far more valuable to this club than Pence.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 17, 2012 1:08 PM EST up reply actions
It’s too big and isn’t collapsible. Needs a subject line.
"I wouldn’t run if there was a fire. I wouldn’t run anywhere. I hate running." - O. Munn
I got that part..
the 10 yard bit threw me off though.
I think everyone should be bilateral coordinated.
How about half the distance to the goal?
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 17, 2012 1:06 PM EST up reply actions
Failing to resize a pic is a five yarder. Failing to resize an animated .gif is half the distance to the goal.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Jan 17, 2012 1:08 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
Shouldn’t we be using baseball terms… like, I don’t know, a strike?
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Jan 17, 2012 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
Then you win World Series.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 17, 2012 4:11 PM EST up reply actions
FWIW, the Pence stands alone in terms of outstanding cases, as Zolecki tweets that they got Valdez settled. I saw it on MLBTR as a 930K salary.
As per Hamels, I think this is generally positive news, if only because of WC’s point about the painlessness of the contract process. If for nothing else than the pangs of seeing him elsewhere — as well as, of course, him being a good pitcher and all — I’m definitely holding out hope for the eventual extension.
Have the Phillies non-tendered anyone since Amaro took over? I’m not sure he knows that it is even an option.
I’m erring more to the side of this being positive news than negative regarding Hamels. As mentioned previously by others, a one year deal doesn’t necessarily mean that they arent working towards a multi year in season deal that would start in 2013, and doing it as much to stay within the lux tax parameters as anything else, based on the AAV rules. In essence, this could just be creative posturing on both sides.
The fairness of the number too, bodes well for dialogue purposes as mentioned.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
also...
If my math is correct, payroll stands at around $155 to 157mm right now based on AAV for lux tax purposes… without a number for Pence, for 22 guaranteed (or virtually guaranteed) contracts.
SP:
Halladay, Hamels, Lee, Blanton, Worley (65.5mm assuming 500k for Worley)
RP
Kendrick, Contreras, Willis, Papelbon (19mm guaranteed)
IF
Howard, Utley, Rollins, Polanco, Ruiz (55mm guaranteed)
OF
Mayberry, Victorino (9.5mm)
Bench
Valdez, Wiggington, Thome, Nix, Valdez, Schneider (6.2 to 8.2mm depending on whether we count 2m,m or 4mm for Wiggs)
I include Mayberry and Worley, obviously in that 22.
So basically we’ve got 20mm roughly to play with for Pence, and two other relievers and a bench piece ( or three relievers when Howard comes back…)
the 15mm number is a big help towards staying under the threshold.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
in the interest of full disclosure I’m no expert of this, I basically took the AAV’s for everyone over the lengths of their deals to figure it out. I’m sure there’s 2 to 3 mm on either side of error.
But that was my initial though as well, cause I’ve been figuring 17-20 for Hamels this season in my mind…
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
Tough question. I’d go with Hamels, I think. Worth something extra, being part of the “homegrown core” or whathaveyou. Plus, WS MVP, hot wife, and I think he’s actually somewhat better than Greinke—maybe not $3M per year better, but it’s close.
http://www.fantasybaseballdugout.com/2009/07/05/kuchar-emily-greinke-zack-wife/
its a push at best, depending on personal taste, but yeah. Hot for sure.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
I think part of the problem is that Cole is so hot that it takes away from Heidi.
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Jan 17, 2012 5:19 PM EST up reply actions
You have to be manly to get your picture taken with your small fluffy white dog.
Nothing has come easy, but I guess that wouldn't be the Philadelphia way if it did come easy. - Jimmy Rollins
In a backpack, though? That’s what puts it over the top.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Jan 18, 2012 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
Jen Utley all day and everyday.
Ed Snider is a crotchety old fuck.
That is all.
by EREX21 on Jan 17, 2012 6:42 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Grienke’s career lines
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1943&position=P#standard
Hamels career lines
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4972&position=P
Obviously you’re assuming that
a) Greinke would come here
b) he’d get less than Hamels on the open market
c) the “intangibles” and unknowns are a non factor….
I can’t imagine that Grienke would be available for that much of a difference, but if he was it would be a very tough call. In the end, I think I still go with Hamels, for us.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies_zone/Phils-and-Hamels-likely-to-talk-long-term-deal-in-spring-training.html
After negotiating the one-year deal with Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. Tuesday, Hamels’ agent John Boggs said that he will likely be in Clearwater at some point during spring training in an effort to negotiate a long-term deal for his client who can become a free agent after the 2012 season.
“Ruben wanted to proceed in this fashion, and then discuss a multi-year deal later,” Boggs said. “I anticipate discussing a long-term deal for Cole as we get into spring training.”
by Nikk.m on Jan 17, 2012 3:09 PM EST reply actions 4 recs
Now this, I like.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 17, 2012 3:11 PM EST up reply actions
It occurs to me after re-reading the quote that the Halladay and Lee deals aren’t actually comparables for each other…
The thing they have in common is that they are at least 20 mil/year and that’s going to be the lowest I think Hamels will accept.
Yeah, Halladay is way underpaid.
I think once you get over 20 per for Cole, you get into dangerous waters.
Well, that depends on the length as much as the AAV, IMO. As a fan and a fantasy GM I would have felt comfortable with a deal around 5/100 including this season. So, a 4 year, 85mm deal with a 5th year option (which would be 21 AAV) is the same thing.
And if the choice was 3/70 or 6/120? I’d be more comfortable with 3/70 myself.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
I don't get why you would want to do this...
What is the advantage to negotiating once, and then negotiating again in spring training? Why not get it over with and negotiate this year and a long-term extension all at once?
To me, I read this as: they tried to negotiate the long-term deal. They were too far apart to come to an agreement before arbitration. They signed a 1 year deal to avoid arb and now are going to continue again on the long-term deal. Well what the hell, Amaro? Get the thing done once and for all. What is all this waiting for spring training bs. Every day that goes by gets Cole close to free agency. To quote Teddy KGB: “Pay him. Pay dat man his money.”
from MLBTR
Bob Nightengale of USA Today talked to Hamels’ agent John Boggs, who said, "We thought about just going for it, and filing for a number [of about $17 million], but we thought this was fair. Our sights are now set on free agency. At some point, we’ll talk to the Phillies about that.‘’ Noting the unpredictable nature of free agency, Boggs sang his client’s praises and added, “Pitching is something everybody will always be clamoring for. That never changes.”
Boggs is taking a stronger negotiating posture here, but I like that they accepted a ‘fair’ offer and decided not to try to squeeze out every last dime.
Eh, lots of posturing. He’s not gonna say “Cole wants to stay in Philadelphia” and vomit up his leverage.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
Yeah like Jimmy with the “No Home Town Discount” last year.
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Jan 17, 2012 4:09 PM EST up reply actions
Apparently Detroit is about to hold a press conference to announce that VMart is out for the season with a torn ACL.
That sucks.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
I’d think, all things being equal, Detroit probably has enough hitting and pitching to outlast the Tribe, and that’s before they make the adjustment for V-Mart.
It’s a false binary, but I’d probably bet on the Royals clicking on all cylinders as potential spoilers before advocating for Cleveland as favorites.
its definitely better now, but on paper, before the injury Detroit looked to me like the easiest pick to win the division in the league.
Theres tons of DH options out there, though.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
Hes actually a good fit for them in relation to other options.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
You know there’s precedent for this kind of thing.
GMAT verbal section question, Philadelphia sports version.
In 2015, which one of the following will prove to be a better investment?
(a) Ilya Bryzgalov's contract (b) Ryan Howard's extension (c) Mike Vick's extension (d) Greek bonds from 2009 (e) Papelbon's bloat deal
Indeed, Cole Hamels is right handed and pitches left handed and with his eye’s closed just to make sure the games arn’t over too quickly.
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Jan 17, 2012 8:14 PM EST up reply actions
Salisbury reporting Phils offered Pence 9 and his ask was 11.8.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
Based on the fact that arbitration generally privileges traditional stats, this would probably sway in Hunter’s favor, right?
For those interested, current OF under contract making north of 11.8mm per season (AAV in parenthesis)
Crawford (20)
Kemp (20)
Tori hunter (18)
Ichiro (18)
Vernon wells (18)
Jayson werth (18)
Holliday (17)
Soriano (17)
Carlos lee (16)
Jayson bay (16)
Ryan Braun (14 becomes 20 in 2016)
Rowand (12)
Beltran (12)
It’s a virtual cacophony of bad free agent deals and extensions gone bad, plus Braun and beltrans new deal.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
Kemp Had a monster 10 war season. No disputing that. But 8/160 for a 28 year old who has had 1 season with an ops over .900 isn’t exactly a sure thing. That said, he probably deserves to be the highest paid OF in the game.
And sorry, but Crawford got his money because rizzo overpaid werth. It was an overpay too.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
Crawford averaged 6.75 WAR in his two seasons before the contract. $20 mill doesn’t seem so unreasonable to me.
If you look at it like that, sure.
You could also say, though, that he averaged 4 war from 2003 to 2009, then nearly doubled that in his contract year (7.6 in 2010) and then put up 0 war last year…
And a case could certainly be made that based on age, position, skill set, etc… Hat his 2010 season at age 29 was likely his peak.
But I get your point.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
Sure.
But is a guy like Crawford, who spent the first 8 seasons of his career on turf, relies on speed and defense as much as anything, at 30 years old (which, realistically, is probably more comparable based on time in the game and style closer to say, 32) gonna do that for the next 7 years?
Basically, he put up 28 war over the first 8 years of his career. And Boston was banking he’d do the same over his next 7. Now, he has to average closer to 5 war per over the next 6 years…
Could he do it? Sure. But count me among the skeptics at this point.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
If by 8 years you mean 2002-2009, that wasn’t really 8 years since he got to majors in late July 2002, plus I hardly think his subpar stats at ages 20 and 21 should count against him. Most guys aren’t even in the majors yet at that age, and he wouldn’t have been either if Tampa
hadn’t been so bad.
no, theres a typo there, sorry. should be 38 war over his first 8 years (2003-2010) he put up 1.9 in 2002, and was close to 5 the next three years. then closer to 3 in 07 and 08, back to around 5 in 09, 7.6 in 2010. (thats fangraphs, BR is not as generous I guess because of defensive value maybe?)
if you take out 2003, and just go off 04-09, he averaged just short of 5 per season, like 4.87.
my point isn’t that he wasn’t underpaid, or that he didn’t put up numbers that quantify the dollars. My point is that the chances of him living up to the contract at the end of his career are less than likely. thats all.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
It’s a virtual cacophony of bad free agent deals and extensions gone bad
Ladies and gentlemen, Aaron Rowand!
And his sidekick, Vernon Wells!
/I used Wells at BSH as an example of a really bad contract that you pretty much knew was going to be bad as soon as it was signed
GMAT verbal section question, Philadelphia sports version.
In 2015, which one of the following will prove to be a better investment?
(a) Ilya Bryzgalov's contract (b) Ryan Howard's extension (c) Mike Vick's extension (d) Greek bonds from 2009 (e) Papelbon's bloat deal
Some others.
Dodgers 6.5 Kershaw 10
Giants 17 Lincecum 21.5
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
Oh. I honestly did not know that. Has it always been like that?
So $21.5 would be the biggest award ever, right?
Heard on the way home that Hamels 15mm was the highest AAV for an arb eligible pitcher ever. So Tim’s 17 would eclipse that. I think jeter at 17.5 was highest ever.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
Confirmed. Jeter set the record way back in 2001. He asked for 18.5, yanks offered 14.25
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
Yeah, it wasn’t highest ever, it was highest increase
Just talkin about practice
by The Mad Hopper on Jan 17, 2012 7:18 PM EST up reply actions
Completely and utterly OT
But I had someone (same guy from Exhibits A & B, actually) quote that awful Boopstats article on Philly.com as to why Valdez made Jimmy Rollins obsolete as an argument that we overpaid for Jimmy. I wanted to blow my brains out.
I’m refraining from linking the article. If you really want to read it…vaya con Dios.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
So to play devils advocate, here’s an interesting comp for hamels situation
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/z/zitoba01.shtml?mobile=false
Eerily similar career averages up to the same points in their careers. To be fair, a strong case can be made that Zito had already started to regress in late 04 or 05, unless your looking purely at traditional statistics, and I dont think anyone would say that hamels has peaked or that he’s doing anything but getting better every year…
But I always think of Zito when any pitcher is approaching a 6-7 year deal for 20mm per.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
Look at their player comps for ages 26,27,28. Very very similar.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
those player comps are beyond worthless…. and besides, look at Zito’s K & BB rates, and by extension, his FIPs & xFIPs: he was nowhere near the pitcher Hamels is
Interestingly, Zito has beaten the league average xFIP a grand total of one time in his career. That was in his CYA season in ‘02, and he beat it by one percentage point. There’s no batted ball data (and thus no xFIPs) before ’02, but he only pitched 1.5 seasons before that.
I’m looking and trying to pin something down that made 2002 so different from the other years, but I’m having a hard time picking it out. Some of his stats are all over the place, not really following any particular trend.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 17, 2012 11:53 PM EST up reply actions
Well, that’s just it – it wasn’t really that different. Even in ’02, he just beat the league average by a sliver.
Hmmmmm…interesting.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 18, 2012 12:15 AM EST up reply actions
Not about pitchers, but
check out the 5-year WARs on these guys. Apologies if this was posted before.
Nothing has come easy, but I guess that wouldn't be the Philadelphia way if it did come easy. - Jimmy Rollins
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