The Ryne Sandberg Trade: As Bad As You've Always Heard
by taco pal on Jan 19, 2012 8:00 AM EST
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PrintIf you've been a Phillies fan for any length of time at all, this is already a familiar story to you. In 1976, the Phillies began a glorious eight-season run in which they'd win one World Series, two pennants, and five-and-a-half division titles. By 1981, their core was aging, but the farm system remained strong, and there remained hope for continued success. After that season, they decided to spend some future assets to get immediate major league help. They traded a SS prospect named Ryne Sandberg, along with longtime starting SS Larry Bowa (with whom they were embroiled in a contract dispute), to the Cubs, whose new GM was former Phillies manager Dallas Green. In return, they got Chicago's starting SS, Ivan DeJesus. The Cubs moved Sandberg to 2B and he immediately won the starting job for the big club. Then he won the NL MVP in 1984. He remained a premier 2B for another decade and was eventually inducted into the Hall of Fame. Meanwhile, the Phillies declined and their developmental pipeline ran dry. They'd endure 6 last-place finishes and 13 losing seasons out of 14 from 1987-2000.
So it goes. Everyone in Philadelphia, from the dumbest talk-radio caller on up, agrees that this was a disaster of a trade. Nobody ever tries to justify it, and rightfully so. But occasionally you do hear people attribute this disaster partly to bad luck. "Hindsight is 20/20. Nobody could have known that Sandberg would be so good." I've heard it said that the Cubs actually wanted Luis Aguayo -- that the Phils negotiated them down to Sandberg because they reasonably thought he wasn't as good. Some also claim that the Phils had no choice but to trade Sandberg since he couldn't stay at SS and was blocked at both 2B (by Juan Samuel) and 3B (by Mike Schmidt).
Putting conventional wisdom into perspective is often beneficial for civilization, but here, it's wrong. The Sandberg trade really was every bit as bad as most people think it was. Not because the Phillies should have known that he'd develop into a Hall of Famer. But because the potential risks and benefits were so clearly out of whack that they assumed the responsibility for anything bad that could have resulted. Three points below the jump:
1. Sandberg was a REALLY good prospect in 1982.
Don't believe anyone who tells you that Sandberg was only a middling prospect who surprised everyone with his major league success. His minor league stats make it clear everyone should have seen him as a stud.
The Phillies drafted Sandberg in the 20th round of the 1978 draft, out of high school in Spokane, Washington. He was a two-sport athlete who had signed a letter of intent to play QB at Washington State. The Phillies persuaded him to sign and he gave up football.
In his first full season in the minors (1979), he was assigned to Spartanburg (the predecessor of the Lakewood Blue Claws). He struggled a bit, but he was only 19 years old.
In 1980, he was promoted to Reading, and he tore up the Eastern League at the age of 20. His stats: 129 G, 581 PA, 490 AB, 152 H, 21 2B, 12 3B, 11 HR, 32 SB, 73 BB, 72 K. He placed third in the league in BA (.310), sixth in OBP (.403), and tenth in SLG (.469) and was the third-youngest player in the top ten in OPS -- as a shortstop.
I don't think Baseball America had prospect rankings back in 1980 -- they certainly aren't available online. But if they did, Sandberg should have been pretty high on the list. And he did nothing to dispel that after moving up to AAA Oklahoma City in 1981. While his numbers were a bit less impressive (133 G, 579 PA, 519 AB, 152 H, 17 2B, 9 HR, 32 SB, 48 BB, 94 K, .293/.352/.397), they were still solid and he was only 21. He was 45th in the league in OPS, and of the 44 players ahead of him, only four were 21 and three were 22.
Even though there was apparently a consensus that Sandberg wouldn't be able to stay at SS in the majors, any shortstop who was able to put up offensive stats like that should have been seen as an absolute blue-chipper.
2. Sandberg was not blocked.
Despite what you may have heard, Sandberg wasn't blocked in 1981, either by Schmidt or by Samuel. Explaining why is a little bit complicated, though. Samuel himself (now the Phillies' 3B coach) weighed in with one possible explanation, in an article that schmenkman fanshotted a few days ago. While reminiscing about his days as a Phillies farmhand, Samuel recalled:
From what I understand, the idea was that they wanted an infield of Mike Schmidt at first, Sandberg at third, [Julio] Franco at short and I was going to be the second baseman. That was the idea that was kicked around by some of the coaches and front-office personnel. It obviously did not happen.
If this is true, then obviously the Phillies screwed up mightily by deciding not to put this plan into action. I tend to doubt Samuel's recollections, though, basically because in 1981, Samuel wasn't that good of a prospect yet. He'd played in Spartanburg that year at age 20 and posted a .693 OPS. It wasn't until 1982, after Sandberg left, that Samuel broke out. So I doubt that the Phillies were already making elaborate plans in 1981 that included Sammy.
Still, his statement shows that the Phillies could have moved Schmidt to 1B if they really had to. Schmidt was great in 1981 (arguably it was his best year ever) but he was getting a little older and the Phillies had room at 1B, which was manned by a 40-year-old Pete Rose. In any event, they didn't have to move Schmidt -- Samuel hadn't broken out yet, so they could have just moved Sandberg to 2B and left it at that.
The real reason why they didn't wasn't because of Samuel, but because of Manny Trillo. Basically, the Phillies thought they had 2B covered with Trillo, so when they decided to dump Bowa, they said to themselves, "Hey we have two 2B and no SS. Let's trade our 2B prospect for a SS!" But that was foolish. Trillo was good, but he wasn't that good, and he was 30. But the Phillies decided that their "window" was closing, so they stuck with their 30-year-old 2B and their 40-year-old 1B, and traded their 22-year-old stud prospect. They'd eventually trade Trillo to Cleveland one season later, along with Franco (another SS prospect), for Von Hayes.
There were so many better ways for the Phils to solve their positional logjam if they'd just used a little creativity. For instance: (1) Trading Trillo for the shortstop. (2) Letting Sandberg play shortstop temporarily until a better solution emerged. (3) Giving a slightly premature promotion to SS Franco, who'd just posted a .754 OPS at Reading at age 22. (4) Giving in to Bowa's contract demands. (5) Trading Rose and playing Sandberg or Schmidt at 1B temporarily. "Solving" it the way they did was inexcusable, hindsight or no hindsight.
3. Ivan DeJesus was a terrible baseball player.
This is the real kicker. Wow, was DeJesus ever terrible. The Phillies basically traded Sandberg for nothing.
According to fWAR, DeJesus actually had two pretty decent seasons, but they were in 1977 and 1978. But by the time of the trade, DeJesus was coming off three seasons (at ages 26, 27, and 28) in which he'd averaged 0.5 fWAR/162 G. He could neither hit nor field. His wRC+ was in the 70s, and in 1981, it had hit rock bottom at 44 (!) -- that's a triple slash of .194/.276/.233 in 460 PAs. His TZ (which admittedly needs to be taken with a grain of salt for seasons this far back) was a combined -23. He was like the prequel to Yuniesky Betancourt.
DeJesus would remain the Phillies' starting SS for the next three years. Very predictably, his wRC+ remained in the 70s and his TZ remained negative in all three of those years. He totaled 2.4 fWAR in 463 games. And his presence as a fixture in the lineup made Bill Giles & co. feel comfortable including Franco (who'd OPS .856 in 1982 at age 23 in AAA) in the Von Hayes trade. Hayes was a good player who was unfairly maligned by the fans during his time here, but that trade was also a disaster, as Franco would amass 12.6 fWAR over the next five seasons as the Indians' starting SS. (He later became a second baseman and peaked at 6.4 fWAR for the Rangers in 1991, when he won the AL batting title.)
Maybe the Phillies couldn't have known that Ryne Sandberg would be a Hall of Famer, but they had every reason to know that Ivan DeJesus would be a bum. And nobody forced their hand to trade Sandberg -- they just gave him away needlessly. They deserved exactly what they got as a result.
* * * *
In a way, analyzing the Sandberg trade is comforting, just because it was so singularly dumb of a mistake that it seems almost impossible to repeat (or at least I hope so). Apart from the Ferguson Jenkins catastrophe, no other trade in modern Phillies history is even close to being this terrible. Not the Franco trade: Hayes was a good young talent, albeit was less valuable than Franco for positional reasons. Not the Freddy Garcia trade: Garcia was good until 2006, at least. Not the Hunter Pence trade either: I'm very critical of it, but Pence is at least a good player in his prime.
Still, "avoiding decisions as bad as the Ryne Sandberg trade" isn't really an acceptable minimum standard for a GM to shoot for. I think the right lessons to draw here are: (1) If your team's aging, that's a good time to hold onto your prospects, not trade them. (2) If a top prospect seems positionally blocked, don't overreact -- with a little patience and creativity, you might still be able to find room for him. (3) Don't trade for guys who suck, just because they have a familiar name or play a position of need. At times in recent years, the Phillies have behaved as if they never learned these lessons despite their past experiences. Hopefully they'll remember them going forward.
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Looking at their records during his prime, the only decent team they had was in 86, but they finished 20 games out to the Mets. So I dont think there was ever a chance for them even if he was on the team. Obviously they would have made other moves if they were close to contention, but they really were never even close.
well, it’s a cascading effect, isn’t it? If they don’t trade Sandberg, then they can either play Samuel elsewhere (he did eventually move to the outfield, though he was bad there too), or trade him… also, in 1984, for example, when the Cubs won the division with Sandberg winning MVP, a) the Phillies won fewer games than their pythag., while the Cubs far exceeded theirs and b) the Phillies had been in contention, before fading badly, while the Cubs had ridden the ridiculous Sutcliffe hand post-trade… anyway, both teams would have been constituted differently; you can’t just add 6 wins to the Phillies real-life 81 and say, “no big deal”
Not only what was mentioned above but...
Even if they keep Sandberg, I’m sure he could’ve been used for trade bait in years later to a contender at the deadline and we could’ve gotten a heck of a lot more out of them than just Ivan, which might have brought back significant prospects that turn into a core that pushes the 93’ squad over the top and makes the 90’s a bit more of a fond memory for us Phils fans.
Additionally, if Sandberg is playing Second, Franco comes up a year or two later to play SS. Schmidt is still pretty damned good over at Third and they easily could have moved Sammy to first. That could actually be a damned good lineup and the difference between 5 years of stiffdom and contention. In fairness, they would have started to suck again by the early 90’s as the pipeline went dry, but even that’s hard to predict. Butterfly effect, blah, blah, blah.
Of all the things that mark the Phillies’ history of futility (the first team to 10,000 losses, nearly a century before their first World Championship, thirty years without a pennant, etc.) the fact that they came out on the short end of two horribly lopsided trades to the CUBS might be the most glaring
Great stuff here, and yeah it’s scary to see the Phillies front office make many of the similar mistakes that led to the demise of the team post-1983
All things considered, I'd rather be in Philadelphia
Kyle Kendrick?
He was a two-sport athlete who had signed a letter of intent to play QB at Washington State. The Phillies persuaded him to sign and he gave up football.
Forget that.
The Phillies drafted… in the 20th round… out of high school… He was a two-sport athlete who had signed a letter of intent to play [football]. The Phillies persuaded him to sign and he gave up football.
That sounds remarkably familiar.
I know I'm nitpicking here but...
Could you break down argument #3 with the stats that were readily available in the early 80’s (i.e. the ones mentioned in argument #1 for Sandberg)? To my knowledge I’ve never heard of ANY of the things you mentioned besides within the past 5 years and I highly doubt the Phils front office would have known saber about 25+ years before it became widely popular amongst internet blogs.
By no means am I trying to knock this article in the least. I am 100% impressed and thoroughly enjoyed this read as I was not born until 8 years after the trade and I remember hearing all about Ryne Sandberg as a kid and how the Phillies gave him away. It’s nice to finally paint a full picture around the entire situation and grasp what might have been the straw that broke the camels back and caused the Phillies down the road to futility for almost 20 years.
well, Dejesus was one year removed from what could have looked like a decent offensive year, for a shortstop (his better years, as taco pal says, were right before that); but his most recent year was positively dismal… as for his defense, he was prone to a lot of errors; his range factor looks more or less adequate, I guess, I don’t really know what was average or what, but I have a hard time believing he was ever seen as a good defender
it’s really seems like they saw the deal as Bowa for Dejesus, SS for SS, only… obviously Green knew what he was asking for, when he asked for Sandberg to be thrown in, so presumably someone else in the organization must have had some clue, but who knows
To answer Vince’s question, yeah I’m not saying the Phillies should have known saber back then. In that part of the post I was just trying to get at what the actual truth of the matter was. I guess I sort of mixed-and-matched concepts at points there, as the overall point of the article is that it was a huge mistake even based on what the Phillies should have known then. On that, I still think the Phillies should have known better at the time, but for the reasons Cormican raises.
Thanks Taco..
As expressed previous, excellent post as usual, just wanted to get an apples to apples comparison, even though from all of the other points I, as we all painfully know, that this trade was the worst in Phils history, and possibly one of the worst in Philadelphia sports history (speculating off the top of my head).
well, you could make an argument that de Jesus’s 1979 would’ve looked good by traditional metrics (hit .283, scored 92 runs, stole 24 bases). but I can’t imagine anybody, not even the crustiest, most backward observer, could look at his 1980–81 performance and feel good about it.
like TP says, de Jesus was coming off consecutive awful seasons, including one unimaginably bad season. you don’t need wRC+ or WAR to see that a guy who just had full seasons where he hit .259 and .194 is a dreadful hitter.
by perfectdepth on Jan 19, 2012 11:13 AM EST up reply actions
Great article
Along with your take on Ed Wade’s tenure, I think you need a running title for these kind of articles. I’m thinking, “Taco’s Revisionist Take on Phillies History”. Something like that.
It's not revisionist though
To me that suggests an inaccurate history tailored to suit one’s beliefs. I prefer something more like Taco Pal sets the reord staright.
Hmm
I’m not so sure. Here is the definition of revisionist from the Free Dictionary: “Advocacy of the revision of an accepted, usually long-standing view, theory, or doctrine, especially a revision of historical events and movements” – revisionism and setting the record straight can be synonymous.
I know, but it’s almost never applied positively. Revisionist history makes me think of Southerners who claim the Civil War started over State rights. Or people who claim Reagan never raised taxes. It’s a phrase that has taken on an extremely negative connotation.
“A Brief History of the Phillies, Part One.”
Bob.
by The Dark on Jan 19, 2012 12:22 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
Two hypotheses enter, one hypothesis leaves!
Bob.
by The Dark on Jan 19, 2012 12:28 PM EST via Android app up reply actions 3 recs
Listen all! This is the truth of it. Blogging leads to arguing, and arguing gets to debating. And that was damn near the death of us all. Look at us now! Busted up, and everyone talking about sabrmetrics! But we’ve learned, by the OPS of them all… The Good Phight learned. Now, when men get to blogging, it happens here! And it finishes here! Two hypotheses enter; one hypothesis leaves.
Bob.
Manufacturing Consent: How WIP ruined Philadelphia
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Jan 19, 2012 3:09 PM EST up reply actions
Still waiting for Taco Pal's book deal
Player Is (Is Not) That Good at Baseball: A Collection of Essays
by topherstarr on Jan 19, 2012 11:20 AM EST up reply actions
Complete with witty captions.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 19, 2012 1:45 PM EST up reply actions
Is it all about Jimmy Rollins. ooooh.
by Cormican on Jan 19, 2012 3:18 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Score one for Cormican.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 19, 2012 3:43 PM EST up reply actions
Can any of the (ahem) wiser, longer-tenured phans here comment on what the hell the organization was thinking at the time the trade was made? Or how it was reported in the media?
interesting Sandberg quote from Baseball Digest in 1989:
The trade was a surprise. I didn’t know why I was going to Chicago if they were bringing Bowa with me. I was told the deal was held up until the Phillies threw me in. The Cubs wanted me, but I didn’t know why.
by perfectdepth on Jan 19, 2012 11:24 AM EST up reply actions
When the Phillies went searching for a veteran shortstop after the 1981 season, they couldn’t refuse the Cubs’ offer of Ivan DeJesus for Sandberg and veteran Larry Bowa. The Phillies liked Sandberg, but not as much as two other middle-infield prospects—Juan Samuel and Julio Franco.
by perfectdepth on Jan 19, 2012 11:30 AM EST up reply actions
That’s just crazy. Samuel in 1981 was like Aaron Altherr. Talented, but still at a low level of the minors with a very long way to go. You don’t make major league level personnel decisions to accommodate prospects that far away.
agreed, it seems more like a post-hoc rationalization to me.
by perfectdepth on Jan 19, 2012 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
I was about 9 at the time. To be honest, backthem it was all about the name. I was a sophomore in high school (87) when while watching a game on wn I found out that Sandberg was a Phil at one time.
But in 81 it was more about losing bowa, and swapping wIth the cubs (who were hated Rivals).
There was some talk about trading rose which most fans were against (he was Pete rose for goss sake!) and I can’t picture any scenario where mike Schmidt moving to first (at that time) would have made sense or happened.
Also, back then SS was a pure defensive position. And if you were a Latin SS? Well all the better.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
I was 14 and certainly not quite hep to the level of analysis that goes on here. My best friend, who by the end of high school turned me onto Bill James, had gotten me hep by the end of high school to the Giles-led transactional idiocy, which by our graduation in 1985 was self-evident (he still brings up George Bell).
But on a wider level, 1981 was a full eight years before Bull Durham, which was only the beginning of the MiLB renaissance. Minor league fandom was truly reserved for Comic Book Guy fanboy status before then — you younguns have to understand how much the Interwebz have transformed the easy ability to gather and analyze prospect stats. Beat writers, too, had to rely on other writers or what the organization told them, or the old standby canard of interviewing “unnamed scouts.” Believe it or not, but Jayson Stark had a weekly Sunday column in the Inquirer that was certifiably hip, and I just inhaled it, but even that was centered on the major leagues and heavily reliant on quotes from Andy Van Slyke.
So it was really reported as a sad contractual dispute with Bowa, and an “even swap,” and few really knew who the hell Ryne Sandberg was. Remember too that the Carpenters had walked away from the team out of disgust with what free agency (which was not even a decade old) was doing with the salary cost structure. When no one- and I mean no one – was even contemplating what WAR was, old school, Ball Four hardball tactics on and by disgruntled players still were more the norm.
by Wet Luzinski on Jan 19, 2012 9:46 PM EST up reply actions
from 1987
http://articles.philly.com/1987-12-06/sports/26202152_1_phils-trade-talks-bill-giles
The analysis is absurd, but it’s the closest thing I could find to 1982.
Sure, the Phils got three decent seasons from Ivan DeJesus.
That’s what I think of as revisionist history.
Buckner almost surely could have been a 100-RBI man for the Phils
illustrating for the 8,834th time why I despise the concept of an “100-RBI man.”
why, he coulda been as good as Rico Brogna!
by perfectdepth on Jan 19, 2012 1:08 PM EST up reply actions
By the way, this article reminded me to give Bill Giles props for acquiring my 2 favorite Phillies of the mid-80’s: Bo Diaz and Glenn Wilson.
I never made the connection that the Phillies traded away both league MVPs from 1984. Fun year for Phils fans, I’ll bet.
I don’t think Giles should be criticized too much for Hernandez-Wilson, though, That was kind of flukish.
No doubt.
Still, overall, Giles has got to be the worst GM in Philadelphia sports history. It takes a really special person to take what he inherited and leave what he left behind.
bill conlin from 1986
http://articles.philly.com/1986-05-02/sports/26049407_1_great-trade-baseball-trades-worst-trade/2
Nobody on either side had the foggiest idea that Sandberg would develop into a Most Valuable Player. Cubs GM Dallas Green, under whose farm directorship Sandberg had signed, envisioned Sandberg as no more than a major league utility player. And DeJesus, after all, was a very good shortstop and No. 8 hitter for 1983’s league champions. He just went from age 31 to age 41 very fast.
1. If Green thought he could conclude in 1981 that Sandberg would only be a utility man, then he was an idiot too.
2. DeJesus was not a very good shortstop in 1983.
at best he was in the upper part of the bottom third of MLB shortstops… Bowa was about the same, frankly. They would have been much better off just keeping Bowa and letting things play out.
speaking of bottom third shortstops, this conversation has had me taking a walk down memory lane, looking through the stats for those mid-80s Phillies teams, and man was Steve Jeltz bad…. of course, we knew he was bad at the time, but wow. The only thing he was good at was drawing walks (he had a decent walk rate), but he sucked at everything else. And yet I will never forget the experience of listening to his 2-homerun game in that huge comeback against Pittsburgh. It happened to be his last and best year, the only year he was adequate offensively.
Amazingly, DeJesus actually out-WAR’d Bowa during his three years as the Phillies’ starting SS. DeJesus posted a lusty 2.4 WAR, while Bowa had an astounding -0.3 over 1516 PA!
Maybe it was worth losing Sandberg just to get Bowa off the team…
they were basically the same player, at different stages of their careers (though, to be fair, Bowa was a much better defender, when he was young)
Bowa was both a better defender AND a much better hitter at the time of the trade though. He was also 34 years old and DeJesus was 27, but even if you look at purely traditional statistics, bowa was a vastly superior player. What never comes up about this trade, mainly because the prospect was Sandberg, is that the prospect should have come TO US, not the other way around.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
I don’t buy for a second that Dallas Greene didn’t know somethin or feel something about Sandberg that made him want him. He’s too smart. And he pulled a huge fast one, IMO.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
apparently Larry Bowa took credit for Sandberg in I Still Hate to Lose, which I’m sure surprises exactly nobody here.
by perfectdepth on Jan 19, 2012 1:17 PM EST up reply actions
regarding the utility man thing, here’s a couple quotes Rob Neyer pulled from The Scouting Report: 1983 suggesting that nobody really knew what position Sandberg was going to take. I wonder if that’s why he was undervalued by the Phils: they saw a guy who didn’t hit like Mark Belanger or Manny Trillo and assumed that he would never hack it as a middle infielder (time at SS notwithstanding).
by perfectdepth on Jan 19, 2012 1:16 PM EST up reply actions
I was thinking Robin Roberts.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 19, 2012 1:46 PM EST up reply actions
Nice article
Anyone think Sandberg would have been ultimately more popular in Philly than Schmidt was if he his career had played out in Philly like it did in Chicago (great player on a bunch of mostly mediocre/below average teams)?
I can only speak for myself, and the 7-17 year old version of me who worshiped mike Schmidt like a god during his nine consecutive years with an ops over .900. I don’t think anyone could have competed with Schmidt during that time, popularity wise, especially amongst those younger fans like myself.
The day mike Schmidt retired I cried. I could not (and at times still can’t) fathom watching the Phils without him in the lineup. I imagine there are a few cubs fans who felt the same about Sandberg, but I think if they both played here at the same time, ryne would have been overshadowed tremendously.
Or maybe there would have been a few schoolyard fights on the playground at sacred heart in mount holly over who was better.
I’d have kicked alex vaskmoskys ass if he tried to side for Sandberg though, that’s for sure.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
Yeah, I knew some of them…in my family. I didn’t understand it when I was 8. They’ve changed their stories now, however.
"I wouldn’t run if there was a fire. I wouldn’t run anywhere. I hate running." - O. Munn
I remember some people used to parrot that stuff on the school bus. They’d be like, “everytime I see Mike Schmidt come up when the game’s on the line, he always strikes out.”
yes
I worked at a liquor store in MD when I was in HS, and I (weirdly) vividly recall closing one night, and hanging out by the owners’ office, and a Phillies game was on… Schmidt hit a come-backer to Bruce Sutter to end the game… “typical” was the refrain; even then (I would have been 17, I guess), I was like “what?”
I looked up Schmidt’s splits in clutch situations over the course of his career. He was a remarkably consistent hitter no matter the situation. Hit around .265 with an OBP up near .380. Guys just didn’t want to pitch to him, ever.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 19, 2012 2:56 PM EST up reply actions
He was just amazingly good for a long time. Even in 1973 he was valuable (kind of the proto-Mark Reynolds that year, except for the slight difference in fielding ability)
I wish I’d been around to see him play…
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 19, 2012 3:11 PM EST up reply actions
Makes you wonder if Domonic Brown is going to have the same kind of polarizing effect on the fanbase if (when) he becomes a great player. The older fans who remember his beginnings can’t shake their negative opinions and the younger people who’ve only known him as a great left-fielder love him.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 19, 2012 2:23 PM EST up reply actions
A similar thing happened with McNabb. Although in that case, it wasn’t so much that people couldn’t shake their negative opinions from the draft – it was obvious pretty quickly that those people had been wrong – but that in having to shake those opinions, they resented it. Like they took it as an affront that McNabb had proved them wrong. I firmly believe this was one of Cataldi’s primary motivations. He was embarrassed by what he’d done and instead of being chastened by the experience, he blamed McNabb and hated him all the more for making him look bad. And his drumbeat shaped the opinions of a lot of his listeners.
Truer words were never written. I remember listening (I have no idea why now) to some of his rants about McNabb.
"We are the Borg. Resistance is futile."
I used to listen to Angelo and still do on the rare occasion I’m in Philly. He infuriates me. Not because he’s an idiot, but because he has many listeners who don’t realize he’s an idiot and parrot what he says. I find him entertaining for what he is.
That’s really sad, actually. I can’t imagine how much energy it takes to hate a good player on a team that you cheer for!
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 19, 2012 2:49 PM EST up reply actions
This is true…
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 19, 2012 2:50 PM EST up reply actions
I can’t remember anyone ever saying a bad thing about Schmidt then, but I hear it a lot now. I don’t know if that selective hero worship, or youth like ignorance or both.
All i know is I was at game 6 of the 1980 WS, and the 1980 NFC championship game (Cowboys/eagles…I can still remember the bitter cold that day.). Both times my dad took me cause whatever buddy that was supposed to go couldn’t. We joke about it to this day, that it was divine intervention.
1980 for me built my fandom. Pretty cool.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
He’s still pretty good.
"I wouldn’t run if there was a fire. I wouldn’t run anywhere. I hate running." - O. Munn
3.6 rWAR in 2011. After missing close to two months, that’s pretty awesome.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 19, 2012 1:49 PM EST up reply actions
Yet people have been speaking of his demise for years now…
"I wouldn’t run if there was a fire. I wouldn’t run anywhere. I hate running." - O. Munn
Home runz = Talent
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 19, 2012 1:57 PM EST up reply actions
Wow, Chase actually placed second in fWAR for NL 2B last year. Still, extrapolated to 162 games he would have come about 2 WAR short of what he did each year from 2007-2009. But I don’t mean to sound like I’m ready to put him in the grave. He’s definitely still awesome, and can reasonably be expected to be better this year.
top ten WAR, 1982 SS
1. Robin Yount, MIL, 10.5 (this was his first MVP year – wow)
2. Dickie Thon, HOU, 5.1
3. Cal Ripken, BAL, 5.1
4. Bill Russell, LA, 4.2
5. Alan Trammell, DET, 4.2
6. Ozzie Smith, STL, 4.1
7. Roy Smalley, NYY 3.4
8. U.L. Washington, KC, 3.4
9. Dave Concepcion, CIN 3.2
10. Dale Berra, PIT, 2.9
-
Ivan DeJesus 1.0
Larry Bowa -1.2
So the message I’m getting is that we traded Bowa at the right time…we just traded him for a guy who wasn’t much better.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 19, 2012 2:20 PM EST up reply actions
Nobody would be complaining about the deal today if it were Bowa for DeJesus straight up, that’s for sure.
I doubt anyone would even be talking about the deal in any fashion.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 19, 2012 2:46 PM EST up reply actions
he wasn’t even that bad for the Phillies post-beaning. good in ’89, at least.
by perfectdepth on Jan 19, 2012 3:23 PM EST up reply actions
In fact, he was probably the Phillies’ best shortstop between Bowa and Rollins. Is that sad or what?
and check this out
Desi Relaford
1996: 15 G, -0.5 WAR
1997: 15 G, -0.2 WAR
1998: 142 G, -0.4 WAR
1999: 65 G, -0.1 WAR
2000: 83 G, -0.3 WAR
That’s just awe-inspiring right there. Yet unlike The Jet, Desi managed to finish his career with a positive WAR, thanks mainly to somehow posting a +2.3 WAR with the Mets in 2001.
Much like those before him, he struggled in the shadow of Larry Bowa’s legend and could only succeed once he went and played in more laid back NYC.
by Cormican on Jan 19, 2012 4:43 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
What surprised me about Stocker when I looked him up recently was his .324/.409/.417 line as a rookie in 1993, in 302 PAs. .409!
He followed that up with a .383 OBP (.734 OPS) in his second year (330 PAs). Turned out his BABIP, which ended up at .306 for his career, was a lusty .381 that first year.
In looking that up again, I noticed a few things abou that 1993 team. I knew they were a very good offensive team, and we now know steroids likely played a part, but I didn’t know how good:
- they scored 21% more runs than the league average, the Phillies record for the modern era
- no team had been that far above the league average since the Big Red Machine in ’75-76 (26% and 33% – !! )
- they averaged 5.41 per game, which was the highest in the NL since the 1955 Dodgers
- despite the increasing offensive environment, no non-Colorado team topped the 5.41 again until 1999
- the only non-Colorado team to reach 21% since then has been the 2003 Braves (21.4%)
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Celebrating over 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1961-2011
by schmenkman on Jan 19, 2012 8:58 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
It was such a change from what fans were used to seeing, that team also helped me really see the strategic advantage to an entire team of OBP machines. They had to be so tiresome to pitch and play against – constant pressure on your defense and pitching staff, plus a gang of mostly arrogant, ugly assholes as well.
by Wet Luzinski on Jan 19, 2012 10:05 PM EST up reply actions
yeah; I’d spent the 80s reading Bill James, and was sort of obsessed with guys like Ken Phelps, but to see a team constructed like that (probably accidentally, but whatever) was awesome
Me too (spent the 80s reading James), and I just found all my old Abstracts. I’m hoping to start going through them again.
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Celebrating over 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1961-2011
Kevin Stocker was my favorite baseball player when I first started watching a lot of games in 1993 (I was 7). He really wasn’t that great of a baseball player, but I think I liked him because he was younger and I played SS in Little League at the time. I had the chance to meet him two separate times. I only got his autograph the first time but when I met him the second time, he talked with my friend and I for about an hour after an autograph signing. Until this day, I’m still surprised about how nice and friendly he was to a couple of kids that happened to spot him after an autograph signing. I think he may have been on the DL at the time but it was still very huge for me as a kid. While we’re on the topic of bad trades…the Stocker-Abreu trade may have been one of the best in Phillies history.
Cole Hamels hits a bar right up the street from me after his home wins but I’ve never talked to him. I’ve always found it funny that the friends he comes in with buy his drinks. I’ve cooked meals for both Brad Lidge and Ryan Howard but I’ve only met Howard. The time I met him, he was actually very nice and stopped to sign autographs (I was practically forced by my co-workers to go talk to him and get him to sign my hat) and take photos with people. He even jumpstarted somebodies car before he left. I’ve always felt bad about hating on the guy since then.
by Mattypmp on Jan 20, 2012 2:52 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
good ol’ U L “Those Aren’t Initials” Washington
by perfectdepth on Jan 19, 2012 2:39 PM EST up reply actions
I refuse to give him the pageviews. Is it as bad as I anticipate?
"I wouldn’t run if there was a fire. I wouldn’t run anywhere. I hate running." - O. Munn
It’s the same unoriginal, uninteresting, shit analysis that’s been going around in various forms since October. It just took
Comcast SportsNet Philadelphia’s foremost believer in the merits of advanced statistical metricsthree months to slap his name on it.
Comcast SportsNet Philadelphia’s foremost believer in the merits of advanced statistical metrics
Every time I see this, I wonder. Are “advanced statistical metrics” limited to “hits” and “RBIs” and “grit?”
He actually does like the advanced metrics quite a lot and throws them around from time to time. He just doesn’t understand them is all.
I’m pretty sure I’ve seen him throw around (x)FIP before.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 19, 2012 3:30 PM EST up reply actions
He’s either trying to find a niche, or someone at CSN said “Casey, shove some of that stathead crap into your articles. I don’t care what, just shove some of those random letters in there and we can promote you as an expert.”
Yup, the latter. Some stogie-sucking suit demanding he slap something together to stay hip with the kids. Works… every…. time.
by Wet Luzinski on Jan 19, 2012 10:08 PM EST up reply actions
Is this the “change the hitting approach” article? I don’t even want to open that Pandora’s box. It’s just going to be a shitstorm of shit writing and shit comments.
Shit…
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 19, 2012 2:50 PM EST up reply actions
You know the adage about how enough monkeys with typewriters, with enough time, would eventually produce the works of Shakespeare? This article…. I’d say three monkeys, ten minutes.
At least so far, however, the three comments are all not outstandingly bad.
Boy Casey, you really went out of your way to come up with this nugget. Wish I had those 4 minutes back.
cutting down on strikeouts and taking more walks
and that’s what Laynce Nix and Ty Wigginton are all about!
by perfectdepth on Jan 19, 2012 3:24 PM EST up reply actions
cutting down on strikeouts and taking more walks
Hey look! Jimmy Rollins has been doing that the past three seasons.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 19, 2012 3:27 PM EST up reply actions
Crazy, huh?
But this has gotten me wondering if maybe there’s a market inefficiency here. On one hand, yes it was fraud for Carmona, and Oviedo, and Ramon Ortiz to lie about their ages. But on the other hand, look, all of those guys ended up being legit major leaguers, when they might not have even gotten a chance if they hadn’t lied. Maybe teams should have more of an open mind about Latin prospects who are a little “too old” (though their bonuses should be lower).
Todd Hollandsworth was making the argument this morning on SIriusXM that these guys are cheaters and huge frauds and just as bad as steroid users (obviously the worst thing ever) and they are using fake identities so they must be terrorists (paraphrasing, but that was the general idea) and whatever.
It seems to me that lying about your age cheats the ownership way more than it cheats “the game” or even the other prospects or competitors. But what is interesting to me is that the owners don’t seem too worked up over it. Oviedo got a new deal from Miami, and Cleveland’s biggest concern seems to be whether or not Heredia will be able to get back into the US in time for spring training.
I’m sure the teams would prefer to negotiate deals with more accurate info if it’s available, but I’m guessing they sort of consider this thing part of the cost of doing business in Latin America. I’ll bet of all the self-righteousness we’ll here in the next week over this, not much will actually be coming from team executives.
Hmm, Hollandsworth doesn’t sound too bright.
On a separate point of order, if Carmona’s real name is Roberto Hernandez Heredia, then under the Spanish naming system, isn’t his last name Hernandez, not Heredia? Hernandez doesn’t sound like a middle name.
Which sort of gets me wondering if there are any other Latin baseball players who we’re calling by the wrong last name.
Albert Pujols’s full name is Jose Alberto Pujols Alcantara.
The Alcantara is silent…
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 20, 2012 10:38 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I’ve been to the Dominican, Puerto Rico, Venezuela… mainly to go to nice resorts. To get there you have to go through the areas where most of these guys grew up.
If I was one of them, I’d do whatever I had to to get out. I’m not saying its right, but to put this on the same level as steroids is ridiculous, imo. people cheated with steroids mainly because they could, and there was no policy. These guys lie about their age because the system is designed to discount their abilities, signability, and a teams interest the older they get.
Blame the system.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
by Joecatz on Jan 20, 2012 10:08 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Totally agree. I don’t even put steroids that high on my list of damnable offenses, but “oops, I accidentally spelled ‘Roberto’ ‘F-A-U-S-T-O’ on a form” is way lower, when you think of the risk/reward analysis for these guys. And even when the teams find out about it, they don’t seem to be trying to take action to recover bonuses they paid.
I’m not saying MLB and the union shouldn’t look at adjusting the system, because if one guy gets a big bonus that would have gone to someone else had the first guy been honest about his age, that’s obviously unfair. But let’s not go overboard and lump these guys in with credit card theives and terrorists, which is the road it seemed Hollandsworth wanted to go down this morning.
by topherstarr on Jan 20, 2012 10:32 AM EST up reply actions
It’s pretty straightforward, isn’t it?
Stop taking steroids —> uh oh, now you suck
Reveal real name —> still the same player
Maybe contracts can be voided or whatever, but why would any other kind of punishment make sense?
Yeah. And I am probably only bitching about it because I listened to one lunatic making a big deal about it for 45 minutes this morning and we won’t hear anything else on the subject until the next guy is revealed and everybody says “OMG” for five minutes and then forgets about it again.
These people were calling in saying he shouldn’t be let back in the country because he’s an identity theif or whatever.
I mean, if the Indians want to try to negotiate some sort of settlement because they paid him based on thinking he was younger, I get that, and they can work that out privately I guess. But beyond that, give me break.
by topherstarr on Jan 20, 2012 10:51 AM EST up reply actions
So, I can get why someone in Carmona’s -Hernandez’s position would be tempted to lie about their age. My question is, why do some guys make themselves younger, while other guys make themselves younger? It would seem to be one of them is at cross-purposes. If pretending to be younger raises your “ceiling,” fair enough. What the hell does pretending to be older, as Pujols is supposed to have done, get you?
Guessing it’s because you have to be at least X years of age to be eligible to sign.
I’ve never heard anyone say that about Pujols though.
Jason Brannon, at Baseball Nation, is one of the standard bearers of the Pujols-is-old camp. As was Heynman, now that I think of it. The “evidence” was that he was really big and really good as a kid, and was now declining rapidly.
Of course, it’s all rubbish, but since when has that stopped anything.
If those guys think Pujols is old, then they’re not saying that Pujols pretended to be older. They’re saying Pujols pretended to be younger.
Er, right.
In other news, I’m a fricken moron. Not sure what I was thinking of.
We’re gonna chalk this up to the weather, ok guys?
by Phrozen on Jan 20, 2012 12:37 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
OT, any of our resident lawyers familiar with Shyam Das? He’s apparently a Philadelphia-area lawyer and the aribtrator hearing Braun’s appeal.
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Celebrating over 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1961-2011
So apparently the Phillies are looking to re-sign Lidge.
All things considered, I'd rather be in Philadelphia
by Veni Vidi Vici on Jan 20, 2012 12:40 PM EST reply actions
Where did you hear this? I knew RAJ had been talking to BL’s agent as of Monday, but have not heard anything else.
"We are the Borg. Resistance is futile."
as per Jon Heyman, and MLB Daily Dish, but for all I know they could both be using the same source
All things considered, I'd rather be in Philadelphia
by Veni Vidi Vici on Jan 20, 2012 4:09 PM EST up reply actions
OT
Thank gawd we have the Phanatic and don’t have to choose from this crap for a mascot. To those in Philly: Are these for real, or is this some weird joke?
This shit’s for real, yo.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 20, 2012 3:07 PM EST up reply actions
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