Some Phillies Links For You, January 23, 2012: Shane Victorino Hawaii Eight-O, Roy Oswalt, Domonic Brown and "Potential"
by WholeCamels on Jan 23, 2012 8:00 AM EST
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PrintInside the Phillies: Phils should be good for a long time - Philadelphia Inquirer
/slow clap. Bob Brookover pretty much nails it.
Report: Red Sox Expected To Pursue Free Agent Roy Oswalt
Bye Lil' Roy
Victorino to be in episode of ‘Hawaii Five-0’
Hopefully he'll warn Five-0 about the Cylon in their midst!
Could the A’s Return to Philadelphia? | The Philly Post
No.
Perlozzo's job with Phils payback from Manuel
Charlie Manuel: It's Payback Time!
Phillies' Brown Might Be Reflecting Jeff Stone's Perceived Potential: Fan Opinion - Yahoo! Sports
That's it, I quit.
More aces on the way for the Phillies?
I guess you could say they have /sunglasses on/ an ace in the hole. YEAAHHHHH!!!
Reliever Madson ready to lead Cincinnati back to postseason
This just feels wrong.
R-Phillies outline HR Derby details
what
NL East: Mets prep lawyers for Madoff hearing
I can't even muster an "LOLMets" for this. It's just too sad.
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Of all the things in this world that you can waste time in your life doing, spearheading a campaign to bring the A’s back to Philly has to be near the bottom of the bucket list.
3801. Explore anal fisting
3802. Generate buzz in returning the A’s to Philly
3803. Stalk Sarah Ferguson
I agree it’s something silly to campaign for. It won’t happen for a number of reasons. It’s interesting to look at, however, how the A’s left in the first place. For the first half of the 20th century Philadelphia was undoubtedly an A’s town, most anyone who was alive during that time will say the same thing. The Phillies were an afterthought at best in town and even paid rent to play in the A’s park from the late 30’s on. The 50’s brought the perfect storm of the Phillies going to the World Series in 1950, the A’s going into the tank and having Connie Mack retire, and when numerous teams in baseball were looking to move the A’s headed west. Of course, the A’s hadn’t been good for a long time when they left either so that didn’t help matters. These articles seem to pop up from time to time. The same thing happens in New York where someone says they should bring the Dodgers back to Brooklyn whenever there’s an ownership change or questions of them building a new stadium. I don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone advocating reviving the St. Louis Browns, though.
All things considered, I'd rather be in Philadelphia
by Veni Vidi Vici on Jan 23, 2012 11:03 AM EST up reply actions
It’s interesting to look at, however, how the A’s left in the first place.
Yeah, with all the discussion about the “golden years” of baseball, from a business point of view, the 1950s stunk. The crowds were unbelievably small relative to our current era – even relative to the crowds at the Vet, in fact.
One thing I only learned recently is that 1960-61 expansion was driven in part due to Branch Rickey’s efforts to start the Continental League…..
What the poster suggests absolutely won’t happen now. It is more likely for a 2nd team in the Houston area, or even a 3rd team in NYC, and of course neither of those things are happening either.
GMAT verbal section question, Philadelphia sports version.
In 2015, which one of the following will prove to be a better investment?
(a) Ilya Bryzgalov's contract (b) Ryan Howard's extension (c) Mike Vick's extension (d) Greek bonds from 2009 (e) Papelbon's bloat deal
I don’t think that’s the right statistic to use. In England, nearly the entire population lives in a place that could have a team. In the US, the NYC area might be a much smaller percentage of the population, but a vast % of the US population lives in a place that couldn’t possibly have a team. Those people are irrelevant for purposes of this discussion. What % is NYC compared to the number of people who live in places where there could theoretically be a team?
I don’t know. Everyone has already chosen sides. If a third American League team were introduced to the NYC metro area (northern NJ?) then I’d probably at least nominally be a fan. But everyone else is kind of spoken for.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Jan 24, 2012 12:16 PM EST up reply actions
I’d be willing to be there’s a large number of Mets’ fans who would consider jumping ship, given the chance.
They’d have to build up gradually, but I think they’d be able to do it. The area is still growing, for one thing. Also, some people are casual fans who would choose convenience over loyalty. I don’t think the third team would ever be as successful, business-wise, as the first two, but if run properly it could do well enough, and better than an expansion team would do in a lot of cities that have no team at all.
yeah that’s the biggest reason I don’t think a third team in the NYC metro area is going to happen. So much emphasis is on local TV revenue anymore that I doubt it will happen. If the Nationals had to beg, plead, and concede to get their (very bad) territory, how much trouble would it be for a third NYC metro team. Of course, getting only a fraction of the NYC market is still bigger and more luxurious than having the market to yourself of the majority of US media markets (including many of the cities that come up in expansion/franchise shift talks), but still I don’t think the Yankees, Mets, or even the Phillies would be willing to concede much of their market for a third team.
All things considered, I'd rather be in Philadelphia
by Veni Vidi Vici on Jan 24, 2012 9:18 PM EST up reply actions
Oh definitely, the other teams would never in a million years agree to it unless they got paid off bigtime.
What I was thinking of was: how are they going to get a channel to broadcast their games? The Channel 17’s of the world aren’t really in that business anymore. Could you start up a third all-sports cable channel in NYC? Would it make any money if they have to pay the NYC cable company but only have viewers in NJ?
I think YES Network carries the Devils, if you need a comparison.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Jan 25, 2012 10:14 AM EST up reply actions
I think you be surprised at how many northern NJ folk would jump ship if it was indeed a more Nets/Devils based location, and they put em in the NL. Most of those folks are yankee fans, IMO.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
I always hear that, but for whatever reason the vast majority of the North Jerseyans I know are Mets fans. Biased sample, maybe.
The upside of putting them in the AL would be guaranteed sellouts vs. the Yankees and Red Sox. Although I guess that’s true of every team in the AL.
I know several people from the South Jersey area who are Mets fans. Not so many North Jersey people.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 24, 2012 2:00 PM EST up reply actions
Anyway, it’s really just a math issue.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/census/profile/NJ
The North Jersey counties near NYC have, on my count, 3.85 million people in them. Throw in Central Jersey and you’re at 5.61 million. You don’t need that many people to switch loyalties in order to have a bigger fan base than a lot of the cities that already have teams, let alone the potential competition for expansion teams. Most of those other cities only have 2 million or so in their metro areas, maybe a little more.
Well that Brown-Stone piece is craptastic, but it was interesting to look back at Jeff Stone’s career:
1983-86 (age 22-25): 106 OPS+ and 65 steals (80% success) in 760 PAs
1987-90 (age 26-29): 55 OPS+ and 10 steals in 262 PAs
He seemed to be doing alright through age 25. I found this nice piece at a Red Sox blog, about Stone’s last hurrah in the majors, his contribution to the Sox’ 1990 division title.
-------
Celebrating over 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1961-2011
…I found this nice piece at a Red Sox blog…
-------
Celebrating over 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1961-2011
Though that link didn’t work right. Let’s try this one.
Yeesh:
“I couldn’t believe they were that quick,” Baldwin says as he reaches out from his reclining chair and pats Jerome on the back affectionately. “I know you black fellers are quick because you’ve got all those extra muscles, but you ain’t that black.”
by ThinMountainAir on Jan 24, 2012 1:10 PM EST up reply actions
Another excellent take on Jeff Stone from someone we all know.
The article wasn’t as awful as I expected until this blurb:
someone has to be smart to play at the big league level
Is he saying Brown’s an idiot? Is he saying Kevin Milar wasn’t?
Also, on Stone, I’m not remembering what happened to him. I looked at his stats and unlike Brown (with whom he appears to have no parallels) he seemed to start off pretty well in the majors. Then boom, he fell completely apart, and even sucked in the minors mostly thereafter. His fielding appears to have been pretty bad, but people have put up with worse in Left Field.
every white basketball player from the last twenty five years is the next Larry Bird
All things considered, I'd rather be in Philadelphia
by Veni Vidi Vici on Jan 23, 2012 11:29 AM EST up reply actions
Seriously, you hit the nail on the head – that’s all there is to it. The guy is black and he made a couple of baserunning mistakes. To the lazy-minded, that’s all you need to put him in the “Reminds Me Of Jeff Stone” box of your brain. If he were white and made a couple of baserunning mistakes, he would go into the “Reminds Me Of Von Hayes” box.
I remember Stone pretty well. Wholly independent of his color, he never came off as particularly bright. I even remember the announcers would wander up to the line of making fun of him (moreso in retrospect than while he was on the team). White or black – didn’t matter – not knowing him personally, of course, my hunch is he was a a back-country hick. A speech impediment plus rural accent didn’t help him much in the days before media training — think the Bubba Gump Shrimp character from Forrest Gump. He was painful to listen to.
It’s galling when your garden-variety, under-resourced and likely under-educated rural youth are castigated this way. Brown and Stone have completely different backgrounds. It’s interesting too that the comparisons are being made more to Stone (roughly equated to Brown in this discourse as “dumb/black, flash-in-the pan” by these fans) than, say, Lonnie Smith (traded away prematurely, matured in another organization, developed unfortunate cocaine habit). Cocaine habit aside, this is a more likely trajectory for this guy if these jackwads could work their will.
by Wet Luzinski on Jan 23, 2012 7:55 PM EST up reply actions
I wonder what Roy will get us in terms of draft picks.
It's in his wheelhouse!!
Carlos Ruiz, My Nickname is Chooch.
The Phillies didn’t offer him arbitration, so they don’t receive any picks when he signs elsewhere.
by topherstarr on Jan 23, 2012 1:49 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Baby Aces
May, Colvin, Pettibone and Rodriguez. That makes me feel warm inside.
And that’s not even including Jesse Biddle!
I worry that it’s creating unrealistic expectations for all of them. They’re all solid to good SP prospects but “ace” is pretty rarified air. I think we should be psyched if any of them turns into a #2 quality* guy, much less an ace.
*"#2 quality guy" not meaning “poop level”
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Jan 23, 2012 11:26 AM EST up reply actions
I’ll be thrilled if half of them even make it to the Majors as competent starters. TINSTAPP and all.
I’m kind of wondering these days whether advances in medicine and philosophy (pitch counts, etc.) have made TINSTAP obsolete. If you look at the pitchers on BA’s top 50 from 2008, you get:
3. Joba Chamberlain. 4. Clay Buchholz. 7. Clayton Kershaw. 8. Franklin Morales. 9. Homer Bailey. 10. David Price. 15. Jake McGee. 17. Wade Davis. 21. Rick Porcello. 24. Nick Adenhart. 26. Gio Gonzalez. 29. Adam Miller. 34. Johnny Cueto. 35. Deolis Guerra. 36. Brett Anderson. 45. Ian Kennedy. 46. Jarrod Parker. 49. Jair Jurrjens.
A lot of those guys didn’t pan out as hoped of course, but there are also only a few out-and-out busts on the list. I could be wrong, but my gut reaction is that the success rate isn’t that different from the success rate for position players. To really settle this, someone would obviously need to do a much more rigorous study of the data, but I think it’s a legit question.
(Once you get past 50, there are a lot more busts. But I’d think that would be true of the position players too.)
I attribute those expectations to a lack of hype-worthy prospects. Not that these guys aren’t worth being excited about. I’m particularly excited about May and Rodriguez. But our system doesn’t really have any guys like a Bryce Harper or a Matt Moore or a Jesus Montero that are seen as can’t-miss guys. We really haven’t had many of those guys beyond Dom Brown since the days of Hamels, Howard, Utley, et. al. And we are a very sensationalist fanbase (whether or not more so than any other fan base, I dunno). We like having narratives to latch onto.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 23, 2012 12:53 PM EST up reply actions
Howard and Utley weren’t can’t-miss either, interestingly. Howard appeared once on Baseball America’s top 100 list (pre 2005) and ranked 27. Utley appeared once too (pre 2003) and ranked 81.
I think the main thing is that it makes for a neat storyline/narrative, even though the facts don’t really fit.
how many players are there in the top 100 that we traded over the past 3 years or so?
I guess Drabek may be as close to a “can’t miss” out of them (based on the time of trade I mean) but he hasn’t exactly emerged as a can’t miss…
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
jeff stone
I don’t remember Stone very well but just from eyeballing his minor league numbers, my guess is that his game was based on awesome speed, which he then lost for whatever reason. He didn’t have power and his plate discipline was only okay and he always struck out a fair amount, so he relied on super-high BABIPs. Without speed, it’s pretty tough to sustain that.
well, I doubt he lost it in 1985… he probably would’ve been passable if let play… just letting kids play is hard for some, and the Phillies still though they were in contention in those days
Read the article I linked out of that one. It sounds like Felske messed with his head, so Stone got overagrresive on the basepaths to make up for his problems in the field and at the plate (he tried to go first to third on a routine ground ball, unless you’re The Flash, that’s a ridiculous risk).
Sadly it mostly sounds like Stone was a guy who didn’t learn the game as a kid (played, but with no real instruction) and the Phillies did Stone and themselves an enormous disservice by rushing him through the Minors. By the time Felske came in, Stone had gone through the minors without knowing anything about defensive shifts, hitting and base running strategy, etc. If that’s true, it’s really upsetting that the Phillies screwed up a guy who, with that instruction in Low A and High A, could have been the next Rickey Henderson (minus the ’tude).
j-roll in uganda
Has anyone else been following the articles about Jimmy Rollins’ trip to Uganda? I’ve been enjoying those.
He won’t ‘cause he’s fat LOL.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Jan 23, 2012 12:04 PM EST up reply actions
We don’t win Game 4 without his home run!
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 23, 2012 12:54 PM EST up reply actions
Jonathan Mayo’s top second base prospects came out a couple days ago. Cesar Hernandez was ranked as the 5th best.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
That may be as much an indictment of current 2B prospects as anything else. I will start steeling myself now for the inevitable contract discussions with Utley in which RAJ says he’s comfortable going with the kid in AAA.
Hey, it got us J-Roll back on a moderately team-friendly contract. Who says it won’t work on Utley?
Fare thee well, JM. In my book, you were the Greatest.
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=7890127&c_id=mlb
by Missing Jamie Moyer on Jan 23, 2012 4:09 PM EST up reply actions
I have my doubts J-Roll took that seriously.
by Cormican on Jan 23, 2012 4:18 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
He’s no Utley. From what I saw (which was mostly fairly early in the year), he’s a fast slap-hitter with minimal power.
He may develop some power, though – he did have 4 HRs last year. Speed will be his biggest asset. He also had 4 triples.
Bob.
gelb with some good reporting here
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/Learning-a-system.html
I had a specific question for both Jordan and assistant general manager Benny Looper about how they’ll handle three recent draft picks. Roman Quinn (2nd round), Mitch Walding (5th) and Tyler Greene (11th) are all shortstops…
All three are high school players, meaning there likely isn’t room for all three to be shortstops as they begin their professional careers. Looper said Walding will start spring training as a third baseman while Quinn and Greene stay at shortstop. The hope, Looper said, is that one of Quinn or Greene can show enough in the spring to warrant a spot on single-A Lakewood’s roster for the entire season. The other will play for short-season single-A Williamsport.
Lakewood! That would be nice, but might be hoping for too much.
That is nice work by Gelb. I’m glad to see Walding move to Third also (though with Franco and Martinez, that would seem to require a very similar follow up question.)
I guess as long as they’re not playing third at the same level at the same time, it’s a question they can defer till later.
I assume Walding stays in XST to work on playing Third defensively. But Martinez and Franco would both seem to be likely to go to Lakewood this year. It’s a good problem to have though.
I should note that they could always go aggressive with Martinez, since he’s a college guy and jump him to Clearwater if he does well in the Spring. That would be nice, if he were to do well with the jump, as it would spread out the 3B prospects some and potentially mean only a few years until we could call up a prospect to take over 3rd.
High apple pie in the sky hopes?
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 23, 2012 2:42 PM EST up reply actions
Could he play third base?
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 23, 2012 3:03 PM EST up reply actions
I have a common friend with Martinez, so I’m totally rooting for him. I think we’re all just desperate for a prospect to blow the doors off so we don’t get stuck with David Wright.
I said this atround draft time last year, but I went to a UM game with a friend of mine from high school that played there a few years back against FSU (my alma mater) and I saw Martinez hit two home runs with graceful ease. He made a few real slick plays in the field too. (He was a freshman or a sophomore I think) after the second HR I turned to my buddy and said “On the count of three say who this kid reminds you of at 18 years old”
1..2..3
both of us “A-Rod”.
Now, understand that we weren’t saying he had A-Rod potential, just that his build, swing, defense, arm, range, etc.. reminded us both of the 18 year old version that we pitched around in state championship games, travel ball, etc..
He never really lived up to his potential at UM (people thought he was gonna break all of Burrells records, etc…) but dude can play thats for sure.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
Yeah, I remember you posting that. He hasn’t gotten much love from the prospect rankings this year. Definitely a bit of a sleeper candidate in that regard (though as a high draft pick, the term sleeper would seem a bit of a stretch).
here’s his bio from his freshman year. It weas the game on April 5th that I was at.
Freshman (2009)…
Led team in at-bats (233) and ranked second in RBI (47)… One of three players to play and start in all 60 games… Tied for third on the team in homers (9)… Hit .347 (26-for-75) in his first 20 collegiate games… Started 46 games at third base, 13 at first and one at DH… Hit .281 with six homers and 22 RBI in 30 ACC games… Tied for the team-high with 14 multiple RBI games… Hit .583 with 3 HR, 6 RBI and 5 runs scored vs. FSU (4/3-5)… Recorded his first career two-homer game in win over FSU on April 5… Hit .391 in February (9-for-23), .259 in March (21-for-81), .343 in April (23-for-67) and .172 in May (10-for-58)…
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
has there been any definitive talk about where martinez is seen long term? I know he was drafted as a 3B, but he played mostly 1B his last season at Miami…
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
My hunch is 3B… it is, after all, where the need is kind of greatest.
Saw him in early August in Williamsport, where he definitely exuded the manchild aura on the Crosscutters – even when he wasn’t making contact, seemed to have the best grip on how to work an at-bat. Agree he is a sleeper, but based on the game I saw, I came away pretty bullish on him and Altherr.
The Crosscutters had some real good pitchers too, though Bowman Field is a cavern & as such hides the high FB% guys.
by Wet Luzinski on Jan 23, 2012 9:34 PM EST up reply actions
Who’sslated to play SS at Reading (assuming Galvis is at Lehigh?
Could we actually have a real SS prospect playing everywhere this season?
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
Clearwater’s shortstop last year was a non-prospect, Troy Hanzawa. Lakewood’s was Edgar Duran – don’t know anything about him.
I thought this exchange (sorry about the fuzziness) from the comments to the Brookover article were pretty illuminating as to the most common logical errors and misconceptions held by the fan base these days.
Lots and lots of Jimmy Rollins hate in those comments.
And a whole lot of people who didn’t understand the column because they apparently couldn’t grasp the concept that time will continue on past the current season. Pointing out all the supposed flaws in the current team is NOT a counterpoint to Brookover’s argument!
“Elite pitching dominates this offense and if you can’t see that your kool-aid must taste pretty good.”
What a douche.
"I wouldn’t run if there was a fire. I wouldn’t run anywhere. I hate running." - O. Munn
Elite pitching dominatesthismost offense.
There.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 23, 2012 2:24 PM EST up reply actions
Ugh, there is nothing worse than the kool-aid retort. As if the owners and managers are intentionally lying to the fanbase to cover up some “obvious” flaw. Talk about a persecution complex.
by Trev223 on Jan 23, 2012 2:38 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I wonder if that guy also believes there’s a conspiracy theory and Howard didn’t tear anything, but was instead instructed to go down, so the team could play both Mayberry and Brown next year, so they can get a hot streak out of Brown and trade him for Evan Longoria. Then Howard will come back rested in June to lead the team to a World Series.
The FO isn’t smart enough to put something like that together.
Fare thee well, JM. In my book, you were the Greatest.
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=7890127&c_id=mlb
by Missing Jamie Moyer on Jan 23, 2012 4:12 PM EST up reply actions
Conspiracy theorists think one of the tallest buildings in the world was imploded so we could attack a country we previously attacked with very little public outcry. Actual real world viability has no place in a conspiracy theory. If it did, none would exist.
I totally got his autograph at a Reading game…must have been 12 or 13 years ago? Least exciting autograph ever.
Fare thee well, JM. In my book, you were the Greatest.
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=7890127&c_id=mlb
by Missing Jamie Moyer on Jan 23, 2012 4:14 PM EST up reply actions
Anyone else rooting for Ibanez to get a major league deal? If he does, we’ll be getting a nice comp draft pick. It would almost be worth it for us to send a team 500k so they sign him to a major league contract.
LOL.
I like Raul, and I expect him to get a shot somewhere in the AL as a bench hitter/DH. He can’t be too bad compared to Adam Dunn.
Raul Ibanez will put up 2.5+ war and a .900 OPS over about 450 ABs in 2012 so says #catstradamus
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
As long as he only DH’s, and then only as long as they bench him in odd-numbered months. But sure, if he signs with Yankees, he could get 450 PA in 3 months.
Fare thee well, JM. In my book, you were the Greatest.
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=7890127&c_id=mlb
by Missing Jamie Moyer on Jan 23, 2012 5:53 PM EST up reply actions
So today’s rumor involves us pursuing Francisco Cordero as a set up man. Apparently he’s narrowed it down to us, the angles, blue jays or orioles.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
Meh.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 23, 2012 8:18 PM EST up reply actions
Nah. Unless he comes cheap, of course. Even then I dunno.
by ThinMountainAir on Jan 24, 2012 1:11 PM EST up reply actions
Book'em Shane-O
Since Shane will not be playing himself, I see him as either a mob guy being really hyper because he is giving info to 5-0, or maybe a witness (lame I know). Any other thoughts?
"We are the Borg. Resistance is futile."
I’d love to see Pat Burrell playing Steve McGarrett, roll up to a house with a suspected murderer inside, turn to Victorino, and say, “Yo Pineapple. Take the back.” Mock up
by Wet Luzinski on Jan 25, 2012 12:27 AM EST up reply actions
Also, read this guide to owning Cody Ross:
http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/1/24/2729912/boston-red-sox-cody-ross-signing
Funsies.
"I wouldn’t run if there was a fire. I wouldn’t run anywhere. I hate running." - O. Munn
by doubleh on Jan 24, 2012 2:02 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
This is why I’m a fan of Grant Brisbee.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 24, 2012 2:15 PM EST up reply actions
How the hell did I miss that?
It might as well have been written in crayon.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 24, 2012 7:25 PM EST up reply actions
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