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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

Meeting exactly in the middle between Pence's demand of $11.8 million and the Phillies offer of $9 million.

Cost certainty.

4 months ago Wholecamels_tiny WholeCamels 99 comments 0 recs  | 

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FWIW, Matt Swartz projected Pence @ $11.1 million.

by topherstarr on Jan 27, 2012 3:11 PM EST reply actions  

Considering the direction that Pence’s offensive game at least appears to be going (cutting the K rate and upping the BB rate), this is a pretty solid number. If he can continue to be a 4-5 WAR player for a few years, then it’s definitely worth it.

Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.

by TheOrangeCone on Jan 27, 2012 3:13 PM EST reply actions  

Good news, I suppose. I think I would have preferred a 2-year deal (he’s arb eligible next year as well, right?) to buy out both arb years, like 2/22 or something, but this isn’t bad at all.

by Phrozen on Jan 27, 2012 3:14 PM EST reply actions  

I expect talks for an extension to become public by at least the All-Star Break.

Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.

by TheOrangeCone on Jan 27, 2012 3:16 PM EST up reply actions  

I was gonna say, anyone want to handicap the chances of an extension getting signed before season’s end?

Fare thee well, JM. In my book, you were the Greatest.
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=7890127&c_id=mlb

by Missing Jamie Moyer on Jan 27, 2012 3:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Pence should be locked up long term.

by Nikk.m on Jan 27, 2012 3:25 PM EST up reply actions  

I think with what we gave up for him they have every intention of signing him long term.

by Domonate on Jan 27, 2012 3:26 PM EST up reply actions  

We have him through age 30 season. I’m hoping we can slap on an extension for 3-4 years on top of that for something like 15/per.

by Nikk.m on Jan 27, 2012 3:28 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm almost ready to agree with you

I’m not totally sold that he can be a 5 WAR player on a regular basis. We all know that he had a BABIP-fueled season (.361 compared to a .304 mark for the previous 3 seasons), which hiked up his BA to well above his career average. But like I said above, if his plate patience and pitch selection has improved for good, then even if his BA returns to normal levels (around .280 for his career so far), he’ll be a great offensive piece. Defensively…meh. Great arm, but he’s been shown to make some boneheaded plays in the field on occasion.

Right now, if I were to extend him today, I’d give him an additional 3 years at about $34-35 million, bringing it to 4/$44 million total. I think that’s reasonable.

Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.

by TheOrangeCone on Jan 27, 2012 3:41 PM EST up reply actions  

Are you saying you’d be happy/excited with a 3/35 or 4/44 contract or you’d just be ok with that?

by Cole_Hamels_Can on Jan 27, 2012 3:43 PM EST up reply actions  

As a baseline fan, I’d be pretty pumped about it. And as a SABR-guy, I’d have no qualms with it. Pence is going to be a good player for several more years, just perhaps not as good as he was this season. But $11 per season? Yeah, no problem.

Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.

by TheOrangeCone on Jan 27, 2012 3:48 PM EST up reply actions  

*$11 million, I should say.

Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.

by TheOrangeCone on Jan 27, 2012 3:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Cool that’s how I interpreted what you said. Pence will probably get more, but I’d be happy if we could do the three year deal for 34.

by Cole_Hamels_Can on Jan 27, 2012 3:54 PM EST up reply actions  

I’d give him Papelbon’s contract.

Fare thee well, JM. In my book, you were the Greatest.
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=7890127&c_id=mlb

by Missing Jamie Moyer on Jan 27, 2012 6:27 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

So where exactly does this leave our payroll? I’ve heard estimates anywhere from $168-175 million if he won his arbitration case, but nothing really definitive.

by Domonate on Jan 27, 2012 3:25 PM EST reply actions  

Trying to do it in my head, I’m coming up with around $160 million. I can’t remember what Nix signed for, though. Also, that seems low, I must be forgetting somebody.

by topherstarr on Jan 27, 2012 3:50 PM EST up reply actions  

If you add Pence and subtract Valdez from what Cot’s has right now, you get $166.438 million for 20 players. That doesn’t include any pre-arbitration players or players on minor league contracts (Worley, Mayberry, Pierre). So if each of the other 5 roster spots is the minimum $.480 million, they are close to $169 million.

That’s actual salary, not luxury tax salary. Eyeballing it, Howard will be a little more, Utley, Rollins and Victorino a little less. So the luxury tax number is probably a little lower than the actual number.

by topherstarr on Jan 27, 2012 4:05 PM EST up reply actions  

It’s around 171mm for lux tax purposes, assuming the rest of the roster is filled with min salary guys and no one hits any incentive bonuses.

"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP

by Joecatz on Jan 27, 2012 11:52 PM EST up reply actions  

actually, the PAYROLL number is $170,260,000 for lux tax purposes, and that doesn’t count the benefits that need to be added at the end of the year, which are usually between 10 and 11 mm. so we’re gonna be right there.

"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP

by Joecatz on Jan 28, 2012 12:11 AM EST up reply actions  

correction

$169,660,000 I added wrong.

"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP

by Joecatz on Jan 28, 2012 12:17 AM EST up reply actions  

Paul Holmgren, is that you?

GMAT verbal section question, Philadelphia sports version.
In 2015, which one of the following will prove to be a better investment?
(a) Ilya Bryzgalov's contract (b) Ryan Howard's extension (c) Mike Vick's extension (d) Greek bonds from 2009 (e) Papelbon's bloat deal

by Bud in TN on Jan 28, 2012 1:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Lol

Nice one

"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP

by Joecatz on Jan 29, 2012 7:17 AM EST up reply actions  

11 comments and no mention of BABIP.

You disappoint me TGP.

"Call me dumb, call me stupid, whatever. I block shots."
#FireRoseman
@boknows71

by boknows71 on Jan 27, 2012 3:47 PM EST reply actions  

Uh...

Go back and try again, homie.

Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.

by TheOrangeCone on Jan 27, 2012 3:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Well it wasn’t there when I hit post.

I knew it was coming just a matter of when.

Is it bad to wish him a BABIP-fueled season again?

"Call me dumb, call me stupid, whatever. I block shots."
#FireRoseman
@boknows71

by boknows71 on Jan 27, 2012 3:54 PM EST up reply actions  

It’s possible it took him 6 minutes to post that comment…

by Cole_Hamels_Can on Jan 27, 2012 3:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Friggin’ dial-up…

Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.

by TheOrangeCone on Jan 27, 2012 3:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah… but that lovely sound of the modem makes up for that.

by Cole_Hamels_Can on Jan 27, 2012 3:57 PM EST up reply actions  

It’s called having a job and priorities.

I heard policing the internet pays well though, so good luck with that.

"Call me dumb, call me stupid, whatever. I block shots."
#FireRoseman
@boknows71

by boknows71 on Jan 27, 2012 4:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Perhaps

The benefits suck, though. It’s really awkward to hear “turn your head and cough” over Skype…

Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.

by TheOrangeCone on Jan 27, 2012 4:04 PM EST up reply actions  

I guess your job and priorities include zinging people back on an online sports blog…

by Cole_Hamels_Can on Jan 27, 2012 4:19 PM EST up reply actions  

how it works

1. Make a dickish comment
2. Act butthurt when people respond in kind
3. Repeat

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Jan 27, 2012 7:49 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t make semi-artistic works. They all come from a place of butthurt.

by j reed on Jan 29, 2012 2:59 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

All I did was take a pre-written monologue and throw the words “grit” and “hustle” in there.

No butthurt involved, though…

Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.

by TheOrangeCone on Jan 29, 2012 3:52 PM EST up reply actions  

I always get on the radio.

"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP

by Joecatz on Jan 29, 2012 6:37 PM EST up reply actions  

88 comments and no belittling stupid WIPers… you disappoint me TGP.

by Cole_Hamels_Can on Jan 29, 2012 7:06 PM EST up reply actions  

math questions

Does anyone know how to calculate the answers?

1. If Pence’s BABIP were .328 last year (his career average), what would his WAR have been?

2. If Pence’s BABIP were .328 and his walk rate was 11% (what it was post trade), what would his WAR have been?

by taco pal on Jan 27, 2012 4:22 PM EST reply actions  

I don’t know how to calculate WAR, but I’ll give you some numbers you maybe can use.

In 2011 (668 PA) with a BABIP of .328, Pence would have had a .289 average (175 H in 606 AB) with a .345 OBP. With the same BABIP and an 11% BB rate, he would have batted .287 (169H in 589 AB) with a .364 OBP. Slugging percentage is (I believe) impossible to determine since we don’t know what hits we took away were extra base hits. So if you need OPS to calculate WAR, you’re going to run into some difficulty there.

Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.

by TheOrangeCone on Jan 27, 2012 6:30 PM EST up reply actions  

You could decrease SLG by the same percentage as you did BA.

by Phrozen on Jan 27, 2012 6:41 PM EST up reply actions  

IE, you decreased his .314 to .289, which is a 8% drop. Drop his SLG 8% as well, and you get .468, for an OPS of .757.

by Phrozen on Jan 27, 2012 6:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Whoopsies. OPS should be .832, assuming an OBP of .364.

by Phrozen on Jan 27, 2012 6:45 PM EST up reply actions  

I thought about that, but consider this:

Pence hits a two hopper that finds a hole between third and short.
Pence hits a screaming liner to the gap in right-center field.

Which one is more likely to be eliminated by a lowering of BABIP?

If you eliminate only the bloops and bleeders that were “BABIP-fueled”, he’s going to have a SLG at .477 for the first scenario and .480 for the second scenario. I don’t want to make assumptions like that though.

Your estimation does seem pretty fair, if you ask me. But it could also be off by a relatively significant margin. There’s just too many factors to consider to put up a definite number.

Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.

by TheOrangeCone on Jan 27, 2012 6:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Well sure, but you’ve got to make some kind of assumption if you’re going through scenarios like this. You could decrease SLG by 125% of the decrease in BA, if you wanted.

by Phrozen on Jan 27, 2012 9:30 PM EST up reply actions  

No more math please. It’s the weekend and I have some not-academic stuff to do.

Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.

by TheOrangeCone on Jan 27, 2012 9:47 PM EST up reply actions  

the methodology I posted above is fairly sound

Basically, it means that .010 points of BABIP is equal to about half a win over the course of 700 PA

by benderbrodriguez on Jan 27, 2012 7:47 PM EST up reply actions  

I’ll have to take your word for it on that; I can’t remember having seen that particular formula anywhere before. Do you know how to convert wOBA to offensive WAR?

Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.

by TheOrangeCone on Jan 27, 2012 7:53 PM EST up reply actions  

I just calculated it myself. The numbers themselves are very rough and have significant uncertainties, but that's the general range

To find the impact of a change of X points in wOBA on WAR, multiply the difference by the number of PA, then divide by 11.5.

So a change in .010 points of BABIP is about .008 points of wOBA, times 700 PA=5.6, divided by 11.5 gives about .5 wins

by benderbrodriguez on Jan 27, 2012 10:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Thanks. So in that case, if Pence had BABIP’d .328 last year with the same overall walk rate (8.4%), he would have had around 3.1 fWAR. Which would have been a career low. Is that right?

by taco pal on Jan 28, 2012 12:52 AM EST up reply actions  

I thought there’s a nice handy excel spreadsheet/calculator somewhere to help compute a player’s line given a certain BABIP

by byosti on Jan 28, 2012 3:05 AM EST up reply actions  

The other variable is LD%.

2007-2010: 15% LD%, .319 BABIP
2011: ………. 19% LD%, .361 BABIP
career: ……. 16% LD%, .328 BABIP

I’ve heard that 1% of LD% translates to .020 of BABIP but don’t know how valid that is. In any case it appears that his 2011 BABIP was driven by some mixture of better hitting and luck.

He also had a 20% LD% as a rookie, before droping to 12%, 14%, and 15% in 2008-10, so who knows if he can sustain anything close to the 19%.

-------
Celebrating over 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1961-2011

by schmenkman on Jan 27, 2012 9:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Is there a hitting stat like SIERA that takes certain factors like one’s LD% into account to get a better sense of how good one was as a hitter? I know some of the advanced stats for hitting (wOBA, ISO, ect) but wanted to know if there was one more like SIERA that gave you a better sense of a hitter’s true hitting absent some luck.

by Cole_Hamels_Can on Jan 28, 2012 12:04 AM EST up reply actions  

I don’t have a link handy but I think theres an xbabip (expected babip) calculator over at fangraphs. Not exactly what you might be looking for but it would be a start

by FanSince1993 on Jan 28, 2012 12:50 PM EST up reply actions  

fangraphs did an FIP thing for hitters, little different then I think what you’re looking for but still a good read.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/defensive-independent-hitting-or-shh/

by byosti on Jan 28, 2012 2:11 PM EST up reply actions  

I’d be wary of stats that are hybrids involving batted ball data.

by j reed on Jan 29, 2012 3:11 PM EST up reply actions  

There’s been work done that shows LD rates are not good BABIP predictors. Check BP.

by j reed on Jan 29, 2012 3:04 PM EST up reply actions  

I think they are decent within a season but not over longer samples. Can’t quite remember the article and too lazy to look it up.

by j reed on Jan 29, 2012 3:16 PM EST up reply actions  

or Ryan Howard’s grandmother’s cornbread.. YUM.

"We are the Borg. Resistance is futile."

by Borg_Queen on Jan 27, 2012 7:50 PM EST up reply actions  

You say “epic,” I say “that was a stupid catch-phrase that should have been retired the same day it became remotely popular.”

by Liverp on Jan 27, 2012 7:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Note that I didn’t say whether it was an “Epic Win” or an “Epic Fail…” that interpretation is up to the reader

by NowWhat? on Jan 27, 2012 7:39 PM EST up reply actions  

As someone who loves my food, I would say epic win.

by RogueConvict on Jan 27, 2012 8:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah I’d say Epic can go either way.

by j reed on Jan 29, 2012 3:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Shouldn’t we see what Homer thinks before writing this off?

by Phrozen on Jan 29, 2012 6:37 PM EST up reply actions  

I prefer to go old school. Gilgamesh.

by Wet Luzinski on Jan 29, 2012 7:33 PM EST up reply actions  

I heard him on an interview on WIP not that long ago. When the hosts (inevitably) asked about that, his response was something like, “Yeah, I didn’t think that was going to become a thing” in a tone that suggested “If I had, I never would have said it. Jesus.” I think he’s as sick of that as we are.

by RedImperator on Jan 29, 2012 9:19 AM EST up reply actions  

Boo

"I wouldn’t run if there was a fire. I wouldn’t run anywhere. I hate running." - O. Munn

by doubleh on Jan 27, 2012 11:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Following Bud Selig is going to be the easiest job ever. You look at what he did, reverse it, and receive major accolades.

It's in his wheelhouse!!
Carlos Ruiz, My Nickname is Chooch.

by Dr. Steve on Jan 28, 2012 2:28 AM EST up reply actions  

if Selig ever leaves. He’s already said he’s going to retire then signed a contract extension. Twice.

All things considered, I'd rather be in Philadelphia

by Veni Vidi Vici on Jan 28, 2012 1:13 PM EST up reply actions  

January 28, 2027 Milwaukee Wisconsin (AP)

Major league baseball announced today a new 5 year contract for Commissioner Bud Selig. Selig, 92, is the longest serving baseball commissioner in history. In a press conference at the newly relocated MLB central offices (next door to Sunshine Assisted Living of Milwaukee, Inc.) Selig suggested that this is “absolutely” the final contract he will sign to be Commissioner.

“I’m again honored to be allowed to retain this presitigious position,” Selig remarked.

GMAT verbal section question, Philadelphia sports version.
In 2015, which one of the following will prove to be a better investment?
(a) Ilya Bryzgalov's contract (b) Ryan Howard's extension (c) Mike Vick's extension (d) Greek bonds from 2009 (e) Papelbon's bloat deal

by Bud in TN on Jan 28, 2012 1:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Oh nevermind. Fuck me.

…2027…

by Phrozen on Jan 29, 2012 12:34 AM EST up reply actions  

on the contrary, I think it will be very difficult

I’m not saying I think he’s been great, but from the viewpoint of those that evaluate these things (as opposed to we the bourgeois), Selig’s tenure has been one of the most successful I’m the history of the game.

They’ll cite many reasons, not the least of which is shepherding the game out of the PED era and weathering the ’94 strike and the McGuire/Sosa ratings-grabber-turned-humiliating-posterchild-for-an-entire-disgraceful-era.

That was a downtime for most, if not all of us, but the writers and scribes who tell the history were TRAUMATIZED by it, and the fact that baseball was – just a decade later – back in the public favor and doing well is viewed by them as nothing short of a miraculous accomplishment.

And THAT – when you strip everything else away – is the ultimate bellwether of success. Even in the midst of an historic, brutal Recession, Baseball is performing incredibly well making more profit than at any time in its long history.

THAT will be the argument-ender anytime the talking heads debate Selig’s legacy (most likely to be preceded with some form of the caveat, “Say what you want about expansion and wild cards and extended playoffs, BUT….”).

Put more simply: Money Talks.

by Chutley's Impressed by Mac's Speed on Jan 29, 2012 11:47 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Incidentally, my Droid’s Autocorrect changes ‘Selig’ into ‘Deluge’, which tickles me.

by Chutley's Impressed by Mac's Speed on Jan 29, 2012 11:48 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

shepherding the game Into and then out of the PED era

Just had to go in there and edit that.

by Cormican on Jan 30, 2012 11:15 AM EST up reply actions  

Fair enough. But how many of the legacy-judgers will acknowledge that?

by Chutley's Impressed by Mac's Speed on Jan 30, 2012 12:01 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Depends, as everything does, upon their intentions.

by Cormican on Jan 30, 2012 12:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Well, you could make the argument that Fay Vincent shepherded the game in to the PED era.

by Phrozen on Jan 30, 2012 2:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Boooooo. Two more steps to making the regular season meaningless.

Nothing has come easy, but I guess that wouldn't be the Philadelphia way if it did come easy. - Jimmy Rollins

by SandPhlea on Jan 28, 2012 10:04 AM EST up reply actions  

One game playoff if both teams are tied record wise and heading for the playoffs? Ohhh that would suck.

"You play to win the playoffs, and we let 'em off the hook!" -Herm Mora Green

by jrobulls on Jan 28, 2012 5:04 PM EST up reply actions  

“and warming up in the bullpen for the Red Sox, twenty game winner for Pawtucket this season…”

All things considered, I'd rather be in Philadelphia

by Veni Vidi Vici on Jan 28, 2012 5:45 PM EST up reply actions  

wishful thinking, but I’m hoping that Mayberry was not a flash in the pan and Dom Brown realizes his potential. If both have excellent seasons, I’d be in favor of trading away Pence. I think it would be a mistake to commit to long term to him and I’m keeping fingers crossed Ruben feels the same.

by DirtyWaters on Jan 28, 2012 12:08 AM EST reply actions  

I agree for the long term, but for the time being I’m fine having him, Shane, Dom, and Mayberry all on the roster. Even if Mayberry does show last year wasn’t a fluke and Brown turns a corner this year it is better to have four good outfielders on the roster.

All things considered, I'd rather be in Philadelphia

by Veni Vidi Vici on Jan 28, 2012 1:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Especially if you’re paying two of them the major league minimum.

Fare thee well, JM. In my book, you were the Greatest.
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=7890127&c_id=mlb

by Missing Jamie Moyer on Jan 28, 2012 4:17 PM EST up reply actions  

one reason to be skeptical that pence will keep up his late-season bb rate

He’s done it before and it didn’t stick.

2011 post trade: 236 PA, 26 BB, 11.0 BB%

Compare with first 236 PA of 2009: 29 BB, 12.2 BB%

Rest of 2009: 29 BB in 411 PA (7.1%)
2010: 41 BB in 614 PA (6.7%)

by taco pal on Jan 29, 2012 2:25 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

Interesting – good find.

-------
Celebrating over 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1961-2011

by schmenkman on Jan 29, 2012 3:27 AM EST up reply actions  

I hear the whirring tape spools of the computers that power #catstradamus firing up for this year’s hot/cold outfielder sine wave generator.

by Wet Luzinski on Jan 30, 2012 10:20 PM EST up reply actions  

You know I like you much better as poet. The Prophet of Doom thing you do…well, poets ya know, are harmless.

by j reed on Feb 1, 2012 3:07 AM EST up reply actions  

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