Phillies 2012 estimated payroll and the Luxury tax.

by Joecatz on Jan 28, 2012 12:53 AM EST

So for those interested, here's the 2012 estimated payroll now that Hunter Pence has signed. WHat you see is not what each player makes this year, rather it is the AAV of their contract in millions. I rounded up, not down on purpose. AAV is what matters for staying under the Luxury tax, and thats really what we should worry about as well.

When looking at this, Keep in mind that each team typical pays between 9 and 11 MM towards benefits on top of actual payroll, and the LUX tax limit is 178mm for 2012. Add that to the total below, and we're teetering on the edge.

We may finish right under it, and if so, Wilson Valdez may once again be our MVP, for saving 450k in payroll when we traded him.

This is why we're bottom feeding to strike bronze with a guy like Juan Pierre.

I used league minimum for guys like John Mayberry (* indicates min salary) and made an educated guess on who ends up breaking camp, but if thats different it shouldn't have much effect...i.e if DeFratus or Schwimmer or Aumont end up in the pen instead of Herndon or Stutes, etc.. the names change but the numbers (except on the jerseys) stay the same.


	Name	Position	AAV	**

1	Halladay	SP	$20.00
2	Hamels	SP	$15.00
3	Lee	SP	$24.00
4	Blanton	SP	$8.00
5	Worley	SP	$0.48	*

6	Ruiz	C	$2.95
7	Howard	1B	$25.00
8	Utley	2B	$12.15
9	Polanco	3B	$6.00
10	Rollins	SS	$11.00
11	Pence	RF	$10.40
12	Nix	LF	$1.25
13	Victorino	CF	$7.30

14	Papelbon	CLOSER	$12.50
15	Kendrick	RP	$3.60
16	Contreras	RP	$2.75
17	Willis	RP	$0.85
18	Bastardo	RP	$0.48	*
19	Herndon	RP	$0.48	*
20	Stutes	RP	$0.48	*

21	Mayberry	1B/OF	$0.48	*
22	Thome	PH	$1.25
23	Schneider	C	$0.80
24	Wiggington	IF/OF	$2.00
25	Martinez	MVP	$0.48	*

	TOTAL		$169.68

My initial thoughts:

1) I think this goes a LONG way in understanding why we focused on 1 year deals for Hamels and Pence. Remember, the limit stays the same for 2013, but goes up to 189mm in 2014, and the new CBA carries hefty increases for 2nd time offenders.

If Hamels signed, say, a 5 year 100mm deal that paid him 15mm this season, 19mm next season, and 23mm in 14-16, we'd be counting 20mm for his AAV this year for lux tax purposes.

2) as TP pointed out we have a SURPLUS of pitchers signed at the Minor league level. If a guy like Pinero shows he can compete in the spring, they could look to unload a guy like Blanton or Kendrick, and eat salary to lower costs.

3) I don't think Dontrell Willis is a lock to make the team, and I would go so far to say he has to be VASTLY BETTER than some of the young arms to justify the extra money.

4) Tell me again why we signed Laynce Nix?

5) How's that Papelbon deal looking now? Any better?

Feel free to discuss.

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Comments

The Pap deal isn’t looking as bad as the Blanton / Howard.

"Learning to eat soup with a knife"

by h2o_34_35_44 on Jan 28, 2012 4:50 AM EST reply actions

Blanton’s only looks bad because he’s had injuries. IF he’d been relatively healthy, it would have been a bargain.

by taco pal on Jan 28, 2012 12:17 PM EST up reply actions

it looks bad when one considers that he’s making more than the rest of the bullpen + Worley combined.

All things considered, I'd rather be in Philadelphia

by Veni Vidi Vici on Jan 28, 2012 10:36 PM EST up reply actions

Still looks bad from here- considering the way the rest of the closer market turned out, it is nauseating.

"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."

by dannijd on Jan 30, 2012 1:15 AM EST up reply actions

Martinez’s position made me laugh.

And then cry when I realized he’s likely to make the team again.

by 88Lindros88 on Jan 28, 2012 5:32 PM EST reply actions

Well the Phillies traded their previous MVP (and 19th inning relief specialist). Mini-Mart needs to pick up the slack, damn it.

by RaptorLC on Jan 28, 2012 11:43 PM EST up reply actions

I try not to worry too much about Martinez (I just hope that his arm is as good in the 19th as Wilson’s was!) He is here, for better, worse, or biscuits… and has his own unique advantages (inexpensive, does good handstands…)

"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."

by dannijd on Jan 30, 2012 1:17 AM EST up reply actions

Isn’t Bastardo a LHP? & isn’t it strange we’re paying our MVP the league minimum?

"Learning to eat soup with a knife"

by h2o_34_35_44 on Jan 29, 2012 7:35 AM EST reply actions

by yolacrary on Jan 29, 2012 8:58 AM EST up reply actions

RP = Relief Pitcher.

by Phrozen on Jan 29, 2012 1:57 PM EST up reply actions

we’re paying our MVP the league minimum?

???

by Cormican on Jan 30, 2012 10:52 AM EST up reply actions

I believe there are h2o had two thoughts there
- mistakenly thought that the “RP” next to Bastardo’s name meant right-handed pitcher (actually means relief pitcher)
- Michael Martinez is labeled as position=MVP and is paid the minimum

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Celebrating over 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1961-2011

by schmenkman on Jan 30, 2012 11:11 AM EST up reply actions

*I believe h2o had…

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Celebrating over 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1961-2011

by schmenkman on Jan 30, 2012 11:12 AM EST up reply actions

Michael Martinez is labeled as position=MVP and is paid the minimum

A-ha, I hadn’t caught that.

by Cormican on Jan 30, 2012 11:55 AM EST up reply actions

ah, I also missed that… I’d thought h2o was claiming Bastardo was team MVP last year

I believe this qualifies as a joke kill in slow motion

by yolacrary on Jan 30, 2012 12:17 PM EST up reply actions

I believe the police report should show, you ran over the joke, then I hopped in the machine backed up and ran over the joke again, just to be sure.

by Cormican on Jan 30, 2012 12:31 PM EST up reply actions

Keep in mind that each team typical pays between 9 and 11 MM towards benefits on top of actual payroll

Do you have a link for this? I’m skeptical, because if it was that high, it seems the Phillies would have been way over last year.

Back of the envelope:

2011 opening day salary according to Cot’s: $165,976,381

That includes Lee’s backloaded deal at only $11 million, so add another $13 million to get to his AAV.
Howard was paid $20 million, so add another 5 million.
Cot’s also subtracts $7 million cash from the Astros in the Oswalt deal, which for luxury tax had to be counted entirely in the year of the trade. So you have to add that back in.

So that brings you to $190,976,381

I realize you are rounding up, so the AAV on Howard’s contract is actually a little lower. But without going through the rest of the contracts, in order for the benefits portion applied to the luxury tax to be $9 million, there would have to be over $20 million in savings between what they actually paid and the AAV on the rest of the contracts.

by topherstarr on Jan 30, 2012 9:17 AM EST reply actions

I’ll have to look, but I took it from a couple different sources, It may be less in actuality, from year to year, but from what I read, most high payroll teams use that figure.

"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP

by Joecatz on Jan 30, 2012 10:21 AM EST up reply actions

Interesting note from Rosenthal regarding calculating options for luxury tax

by topherstarr on Jan 30, 2012 10:43 AM EST reply actions

Here is the old CBA if anyone wants to wade through it. The Competitive Balance Tax sections begins on page 86. I’m not sure if the new one has been published in its entirety.

by topherstarr on Jan 30, 2012 10:59 AM EST reply actions

Differences

Howard is $23.833M…since he signed his extension before the 2011 season began, his 2011 salary needs to be blended with the 5/$125M to become a total 6/$143M deal from which you then take the AAV.

Rollins is $9.5M…if his vesting option doesn’t kick in, he has a player option of $5M for that 4th year. This player option makes that a guaranteed year per CBA terms, and therefore his deal is calc’d as a 4/$38M deal, or $9.5M of AAV.

As for the benefits #, the new CBA summary article on CBA shows that teams pay a total of $184.5M into the benefits fund each year. For my luxury tax calc, I’ve used 1/30th of that figure which is $6.15M.

Finally, you need to figure in the rest of the 40-man roster salaries, not just the 25-man roster. We don’t find those salary figures easily, so for my estimating I’ve given all those on the 40-man who aren’t on the 25-man the 2012 minor league minimum salary of $78,250 (or a total somewhere around $1.1M).

by LastTrain on Feb 3, 2012 12:14 PM EST reply actions

I could very well be totally mistaken, but I was under the impression that minor leaguers made a lot less than that. $78K isn’t bad at all. Is that only for minor leaguers on the 40 man, or all minor leaguers?

by taco pal on Feb 3, 2012 12:37 PM EST up reply actions