Phillies Sign Chad Qualls: One Year, $1.15 Million
by WholeCamels on Jan 31, 2012 11:34 AM EST
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PrintAnd Michael Schwimer, Phillippe Aumont, and Justin DeFratus wept.
As first reported (I think) by Paul Hagen, the Phillies have signed free agent relief pitcher Chad Qualls to a one year contract worth $1.15 million. The righty Qualls will likely pick up set-up duties behind closer Jonathan Papelbon, but who knows for sure?
Qualls, 33, turned in the best season of his career with the Astros in 2007, striking out 78 in 83 innings pitched. His strikeout rate has plummeted from a career-best 8.7 per nine innings in 2008 to 5.2 last season with the Padres. All the more strange because his velocity in 2011 was as good or better than it was in his high-strikeout 2007 and 2008 seasons.
The Qualls signing could signal that the team is not fully confident that Jose Contreras can bounce back effectively from last season's elbow surgery, that the team does not trust the above named Rookie Reliever Troika, as well as some possible hedging against injury and/or regression for Antonio Bastardo.
At any rate, it's not a ton of money, and hopefully the fact that Qualls is an erstwhile closer does not mean that he's automatically entitled to every high leverage, non-save late inning situation unless he's pitching well enough to deserve them.
So the bullpen as it stands now:
CL - Jonathan Papelbon
SU/LS - Antonio Bastardo
SU/LI - Chad Qualls
SU - Jose Contreras
LS - Dontrelle Willis
MI - Michael Stutes
LM/MU - Kyle Kendrick
Bubble guys: David Herndon, Schwimer, DeFratus, maybe Aumont.
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Not as annoying though as an Ed Wade contract for this guy would have been. This is exactly the kind of guy Wade would have given 3 years, $12M.
by David S. Cohen on Jan 31, 2012 11:36 AM EST up reply actions 4 recs
I was hopeful that the news would actually be that Ruben was in a ship that ran into a Squall, near Chad causing $1.15 mm in damages. Sadly Chad is a landlocked nation, so my joke is left high and dry.
by Cormican on Jan 31, 2012 3:05 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
There really should be a definitive compilation of Chooch’s homerun celebrations.
by topherstarr on Jan 31, 2012 11:46 AM EST up reply actions
I love how that home run scored all three shortstops we had.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 31, 2012 1:47 PM EST up reply actions
So did Rube let Wade do the last two moves for old time’s sake or something…..
by Domonate on Jan 31, 2012 11:56 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Seriously. Does this put us over the tax threshold? I don’t understand this signing.
Fare thee well, JM. In my book, you were the Greatest.
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=7890127&c_id=mlb
by Missing Jamie Moyer on Jan 31, 2012 11:58 AM EST reply actions
No way to determine that until the end of the year, and to know how much benefits we pay out. I’ll say this, the team is going to do whatever it needs to to stay under this year, including dumping guys making between 1mm and 4mm during the season for nothing in return, if they have capable replacements.
If Pinero makes the team, he gets 1.5mm, Bush gets 800k, No details on Pierre, but I doub’t his ML deal is less than 1mm guaranteed, so its definitely going to be interesting.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
Who would we dump? I doubt anyone is going to be interested in Kendrick or Blanton, and I can’t see anyone offering anything for Contreras or Willis. I suppose once Howard comes back Ty Wigginton is semi-expendable, but there aren’t really any guys making any substantial money that we could jettison to free up money.
Unless, of course, the FO is actively shopping Hamels and expects to get a reasonable offer for him before the deadline. But that scenario is making me queasy, and I’d rather ignore the possibility.
Fare thee well, JM. In my book, you were the Greatest.
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=7890127&c_id=mlb
by Missing Jamie Moyer on Jan 31, 2012 12:30 PM EST up reply actions
I could be mistaken, but I believe that, technically, Kendrick’s contract isn’t guaranteed until Opening Day. So in theory they could just cut him in the spring. Don’t think that will happen though.
I had no idea about that – is that a specific provision in his contract, or does that apply to all tendered contracts for arb-eligible players?
Fare thee well, JM. In my book, you were the Greatest.
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=7890127&c_id=mlb
by Missing Jamie Moyer on Jan 31, 2012 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
I was under the impression that contracts awarded by the arbiter are none guaranteed up to a date in ST (Not the last day) usually mid March. But contracts that are signed outside the arb hearing are guaranteed.
Kickham where it hurts
by say hey nation on Jan 31, 2012 12:57 PM EST up reply actions
Cots says, no. But the Giants have signed two people to non guaranteed contracts this summer, Ryan Theriot and Clay Hensley
But since they weren’t on the team already their situation is a little different.
Kickham where it hurts
by say hey nation on Jan 31, 2012 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
I believe they settled – RAJ hasn’t yet taken a player to arbitration. Last Phillie to go to arbitration was Howard in 2008, I think.
Fare thee well, JM. In my book, you were the Greatest.
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=7890127&c_id=mlb
by Missing Jamie Moyer on Jan 31, 2012 1:07 PM EST up reply actions
Also, how does trading Willis help? He’s making 800K and league min, IIRC, is just south of 500K, So unless they are really close to the luxury tax limit trading away willis doesn’t help the team in that regard.
Kickham where it hurts
by say hey nation on Jan 31, 2012 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
I disagree on kendrick or Blanton. We might not get anything in return, but if we have a surplus of SP at the deadline, and either are performing decently someone will be interested.
Remember too, once Howard returns, assuming Pierre makes the club, someone has to go somewhere. If Wiggington is hitting, would they move Polanco, and let Ty play 3B? could they deal Pierre or Nix? Heck, maybe Howard comes back, has a good month and someone wants him at the deadline. Not likely, but there are plenty of cogs that could move.
One thing is for certain, I’ll bet anyone $1,000 that the 25 players on the opening day roster arent the same as the the ones that (hopefully) make the postseason.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
A) Ty Wigginton as our everyday 3B? Do not want. As long as Polanco is performing at half the level we can reasonably expect him to, he’s still a much better option than Wigginton, especially with the glove. Even if Wigginton is hitting before the deadline, there’s no guarantee he wouldn’t regress to the mean. Since his semi-breakout season in 2008, he’s a slightly below-average hitter, and likely to keep declining.
B) I doubt anyone would have significant interest in Pierre or Nix, either, and even if they did, it wouldn’t free up much salary, plus it would leave us without any backup outfielders, except Mini-Mart, if they’re still using him in the outfield. Then you get into a scenario à la last year where Dom Brown is called up mid-season, only this time, he’s probably backing up Mayberry and Pence in the corner outfield positions. Per TP’s recent post, that would be counterproductive in several respects.
Fare thee well, JM. In my book, you were the Greatest.
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=7890127&c_id=mlb
by Missing Jamie Moyer on Jan 31, 2012 3:42 PM EST up reply actions
Im not saying I want to see Wiggington at 3B every day. I’m just pointing out the possibilities. I’d scream as loud as the next guy if it happened. But it doesn’t mean it can’t and won’t.
As far as nix or Pierre goes, once Howard comes back, someone is expendable unless they go to a 6 man bullpen. If it’s one of them, Wiggington becomes the extra outfielder.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7522706/nl-central-suddenly-identity-crisis
Phils info about half way down.
“signals”
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
weird… no one else seems to calculate their luxury payroll so high already.
also, I’m really weary of all the talk about how much “better” the AL is than the NL; it’s been going on for years now, but has only gotten worse this off-seasons, with the Pujols & Fielder defections… it’s not clear to me why the question is even remotely interesting, particularly as it does not manifest itself in any kind of World Series dominance
It’ll be freaking malpractice if they end up having to dump a healthy Blanton for nothing because they went $2 million over the limit. You can’t tell me there weren’t better ways they could have accomplished that. Urge to kill, rising…
it still kills me how many people, even quasi-saber-aware people, assume the Blanton extension was a bad move (even a “typical Amaro overpay”-cause they’ve heard he overpays sometimes somewhere)
The Blanton extension was not at all a bad move. He was and should still be a solid #4, and he’s earned his money.
Fare thee well, JM. In my book, you were the Greatest.
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=7890127&c_id=mlb
by Missing Jamie Moyer on Feb 1, 2012 7:19 PM EST up reply actions
This is where the Laynce Nix signing and to a lesser extent, the Kendrick extension baffle me.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
they do me too, though I’m doubting the accuracy of the luxury calculation in the article; the Phillies might not be brilliant, but they’re not stupid
Salisbury said last week that the Phillies were within a million dollars of the threshold last year, so they are obviously pretty damn aware of every variable. Wouldn’t it be crazy if they worked it out that they were right up against the limit, and then Halladay, Hamels, and Lee finish 1-2-3 in Cy Young voting and it puts them over by $50K or something.
I actually think the low-hanging fruit is Wigginton. That guy stinks. I’d rather have gone with the Valdez-Minimart dynamic duo for another year if I’d known that dumping a healthy Blanton was the alternative.
So what’s the only way they can avoid paying their taxes? By trading somebody who makes at least $2 million, of course.
Actually, there is another way (I’m not advocating this, just pointing it out). They could do what they did in the Oswalt deal: trade for somebody at the deadline, and throw in an extra or better prospect so they get more cash back in the deal than the new player’s remaining salary for this year.
That’s a pretty good crerative thought process. Unfortunately, it wouldn’t offset their current payroll for lux tax purposes unless the player being traded was on the ML roster on a guaranteed deal. The surplus cash is just surplus cash.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
Slightly going over the luxury tax really shouldn’t be that horrifying of a reality. The Phillies would have to go nearly 5 million over the threshold to even pay a million dollars in tax money. Big dollars for us, but a million bucks in basebeall is like forking over a $100 bill.
Thats not the point. the point is that they know they’ll go over next year, and are trying to avoid paying at a second offender rate.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
by Joecatz on Feb 1, 2012 2:29 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
V. COMPETITIVE BALANCE TAX
a. The threshold level of $178 million in 2011 will remain unchanged in 2012 and 2013. The threshold will increase to $189 million for 2014, 2015, and 2016.
b. The tax rate will decrease to 17.5% for Clubs that exceed the threshold for the first time, and the rate will increase to 50% for Clubs that exceed the threshold for the fourth time or more. Rates will remain the same for Clubs that exceed the threshold for the second time (30%) and third time (40%). The CBT rates in 2012 will be subject to a transition rule.
c. The Competitive Balance Tax structure under the 2006 Basic Agreement will be modified so that a team that moves below the threshold will be treated as going over for the first time when it next exceeds the threshold.
Many people assume they will go over next year, especially if they re-sign Hamels. But if they go over by one cent this year, it puts them in the 30% bracket next year. Until the organization signals otherwise, it seems unlikely they would want to do that. And Chad Qualls seems like a strange way to signal their willingness to go over the limit.
They should try and avoid it for as long as they can and if a stupid move like signing Qualls puts them over, it’s really bad choice making. Unfortunately, I think being over the luxury tax on a yearly basis (like the Yankees) will soon become a reality for the Phillies in the next several years.
Actually, I think the Yankees are planning to come back to earth. They’ve been relatively inactive on the FA market this year. Check out the current payroll commitments for 2014, the year the threshold jumps to $189 million:
Red Sox: $94.364 million
Yankees: $75.125 million
Phillies: $74 million
The Red Sox are trying not to go over this year, from everything I’ve heard. I’m thinking the Yankees are targeting 2014 as the year they go back under to reset their tax rate.
so put it this way.
If they intend to resign hamels, and his AAV puts them over by 10mm next year, they’d pay 1.7mm in 2013 if they stay under, and 0 in 2014.
If they go over this year, it costs them 3mm next year.
If they go over by 11mm, and stay over in 2014, it costs them 3mm next year, and 4mm in 2014.
In essence, it could mean that if, say 21mm is where they need to be on Hamels AAV to stay under the tax is, if He wants 23, its really 27.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
No, it’d be a converging infinite series.
by philsandthrills on Feb 1, 2012 4:43 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
WTF?
This makes little sense. Is Ruben genetically predisposed to trust anyone with anything under the age of 25?
WTF, indeed.
The offseason bullpen additions boggle my mind. Paps is really good, but to give 4, maybe 5 years of $11 mil to him when we have a number of young guys begging to get a shot in the bigs? And then Willis and now Qualls? Why?
I see the benefit of adding arms to the pen, but it almost seems like they’re spending money for the sake of spending money.
by Jokes & Burns on Jan 31, 2012 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
This Qualls signing is excellent
Low risk, very high upside. No reason to not make this type of signing
by benderbrodriguez on Jan 31, 2012 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
Look, I’m not outraged about this because it isn’t the biggest deal in the world, but this signing does not have “very high upside.” Come on.
For a stretch of several years Qualls was one of the most consistent relievers in baseball
Plus he’s an extreme sinkerballer, which is beneficial in a home run conducive park like CBP and in front of a defense of Utley, Rollins, and Polanco
by benderbrodriguez on Jan 31, 2012 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
CBP isn’t really that HR conducive, though I agree that a GB pitcher should be good. Phillies have good infield defense, bad outfield defense. Of course, if Wigginton plays 3B and Thome 1B, that kind of goes out the window.
Qualls is 33 and is basically a tick above average, but declining. He’ll be fine.
He was. But he hasn’t been all that good since 2009, and he’s 33 years old. This smells like Scott Linebrink redux to me.
Qualls suffered a serious knee injury on 8/30/09. He missed the rest of that year.
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=6386603&c_id=mlb
I understand this contract is small. but you have schwimmer, de fratus, aumont all waiting in the wings, and then stutes and bastardo who proved more than capable last year, my point is why bother? you have pleanty of cheap bullpen arms who have shown they can compete.
by Jokes & Burns on Jan 31, 2012 12:49 PM EST up reply actions
If Qualls doesn't do well, he can be cut quickly, at no cost. This signing still has probable positive arbitrage
by benderbrodriguez on Jan 31, 2012 12:52 PM EST up reply actions
I’m pretty sure this is just a troll… for some reasons Trolls like to make their arguments in bold. I mean the contract isn’t awful… there isn’t much upside and it might block us from using a young reliever who could be good and cheap for a while.
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Jan 31, 2012 2:47 PM EST up reply actions
Trolls like to make their arguments in bold
It’s not in bold, it’s in the subject line. I don’t think he’s a troll per se, but I’m an overly tolerant type, so who knows.
I know that it is part of the subject line. I just have found in my brief experience on this blog that if someone continually replies and posts using the subject line they are most likely a troll. Just noting a correlation, not making inferences about cause.
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Jan 31, 2012 3:36 PM EST up reply actions
yes; the refusal to notice that no one else uses the subject line is an indication of something, and if it’s not trolldom, it still isn’t positive
I wonder if his Dad posted with the subject line…
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Jan 31, 2012 4:03 PM EST up reply actions
I assure you, I'm not trolling
The young relievers will still be there, none of them are out of options right?
by benderbrodriguez on Jan 31, 2012 4:55 PM EST up reply actions
Meaning Qualls will probably generate more value than his salary/roster spot cost
by benderbrodriguez on Jan 31, 2012 4:55 PM EST up reply actions
In order for this to be a good signing, Qualls doesn’t just need to be worth $1.15M or more, he needs to be better than the best of Schwimer, Aumont, DeFratus and whoever else may have gotten the call.
It doesn’t do us any good to have him put up .5 WAR for $1.15M (a bargain, in theory), if Schwimer, say, would have put up .5 WAR for $440K. Yes, it’s a low risk deal, but the upside is very low.
I’ll also be shocked, quite frankly, if both Kendrick and Blanton break camp with the Phils if Pinero, Bush, et al show ANYTHING.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
Yeah, he's not pitching against the Phils anymore.
"I wouldn’t run if there was a fire. I wouldn’t run anywhere. I hate running." - O. Munn
Just like that asshole Vogelsong.
"I wouldn’t run if there was a fire. I wouldn’t run anywhere. I hate running." - O. Munn
HEY
Vogelsong and I share an alma mater.
I heart our rookies.
by LeepinLizardz on Feb 1, 2012 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
Sveet Potatah vunce, sveet potatah tvice, Kutztawn, Kutztawn shore ist nice!
"I wouldn’t run if there was a fire. I wouldn’t run anywhere. I hate running." - O. Munn
Isn’t it “sveet baloney?” If it isn’t, it should be.
My husband and I completely own our PA Dutch heritage. I love his grandmother’s heavy Dutch accent. She’s absolutely adorable. And she makes incredible shoo-fly pie.
I heart our rookies.
by LeepinLizardz on Feb 1, 2012 7:19 PM EST up reply actions
I can see Pinero rather than Bush. If Blanton is healthy, he’s a pretty good #4 or #5 starter (maybe even #3) but Pinero could do this for the team as well (with what would be a cheaper contract). I don’t see the Phillies cutting Blanton though as he’s making too much money. I think they probably just picked up Pinero and Bush in case somebody gets hurt in camp or they’re able to field an offer on someone.
I actually don’t have any problems with this. It’s a 1 year deal for $1.5M. The more arms the better. I don’t trust Contreras (health) and the young guys may step up but I’m not ready to pin my World Series hopes exclusivity on them. Bastardo started leaking oil at the end of the year and Stutes had an awesome year but wasn’t the same guy towards the end either. Who knows if Willis will even make the team.
Meh..
doesn’t boil my blood, but doesn’t excite me either. I am worried frankly that the bullpen is shaping up as a lot of question marks (Qualls, Contreras, Papelbon as closer)…then again, whose isn’t.
"I've seen George Foreman shadow box, and the shadow won." Muhammad Ali
If this is based on inside knowledge that Contreras can’t go, then it’ll look a little bit better. I think he threw for them last week.
How old is Contreras?
"I wouldn’t run if there was a fire. I wouldn’t run anywhere. I hate running." - O. Munn
he is 40. but with all the recent age questions, and his background, probably really 56 or soemthing.
by Jokes & Burns on Jan 31, 2012 12:47 PM EST up reply actions
I’m very confused…I appear to be disagreeing with David Cohen and Taco Pal and agreeing with Nikk.m….WHAT?!?
I think the key is this:
The Qualls signing could signal that the team is not fully confident that Jose Contreras can bounce back effectively from last season’s elbow surgery,
Now, if Contreras is fine, this could truly be stupid. But until then, this gives the Phils options for basically 800K over a rookie contract.
AND NOW, TP just posted something similar to what I say above, so maybe bizarro world isn’t here yet.
GMAT verbal section question, Philadelphia sports version.
In 2015, which one of the following will prove to be a better investment?
(a) Ilya Bryzgalov's contract (b) Ryan Howard's extension (c) Mike Vick's extension (d) Greek bonds from 2009 (e) Papelbon's bloat deal
Strictly speaking, it isn’t really “800K over a rookie contract.” I understand what you were thinking, but if some rookies were to outpitch Qualls in ST and take his job, the team would still have to pay Qualls his full $1.15 mill on top of the rookies’ contracts. (More likely, Qualls will be handed the job out of ST regardless of how many rookies outpitch him, because of his guaranteed contract.)
Then shouldn’t you be responding to Bud instead of taco pal?
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 31, 2012 2:03 PM EST up reply actions
To be clear – I’m fine with this. I mean, I’m not sure I would have done it, but I’m also not too concerned. It’s a relatively low price for just one year and he’s a decent pitcher.
by David S. Cohen on Jan 31, 2012 3:35 PM EST up reply actions
Since the last high GB%, low K/9 FA worked out so well...
Danys Baez 2009 (BAL): 4.02 ERA, 60.9 GB%, 5.02 K/9, 88 ERA-, 101 FIP-
Chad Qualls 2011 (SD): 3.51 ERA, 56.6 GB%, 5.21 K/9, 101 ERA-,111 FIP-
Or $4 Million, or whatever it was Baez got.
Basically, in my view, Qualls is low risk, slightly greater than low reward. I do understand that this creates a logjam of young relievers, but again, this depends on Contreras. If he isn’t there, Herndon or DeFratus are in the bigs, while the other of those two, Aumont and Schwimer are in AAA. I think that alignment is pretty close to their current skill sets. And then in 2013, Willis, Qualls and Contreras are all gone.
(Of course, if Contreras is healthy, this messes things up).
GMAT verbal section question, Philadelphia sports version.
In 2015, which one of the following will prove to be a better investment?
(a) Ilya Bryzgalov's contract (b) Ryan Howard's extension (c) Mike Vick's extension (d) Greek bonds from 2009 (e) Papelbon's bloat deal
Someone will get injured this year bringing up Schwim/Aumont.DeFrat anyway. This is redundant, but it’s insurance, so whatever.
But insurance against what scenario? Two of those three pitching for the big club? That’s not an awful scenario by any means, especially given that 1) They all make the minimum, and 2) They most likely wouldn’t be pitching high-leverage innings. They’d be on mop-up duty, which would actually be a great spot for them to get some ML experience. Insurance it might be, and inexpensive, but insurance against a minimally-negative scenario, and not free, either.
Fare thee well, JM. In my book, you were the Greatest.
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=7890127&c_id=mlb
by Missing Jamie Moyer on Jan 31, 2012 3:47 PM EST up reply actions
I agree, but Bullpens are so erratic from year to year that I have little issue with RAJ stocking up on a bunch of MLB and AAA guys and hoping to find 2 or 3 of them having hot hands to supplement Papelbon, Tony Bastard and KK.
I’m all for this. But the problem here is that they’re going to give a spot to Qualls even if he doesn’t have the hot hand.
Exactly. If it were truly a ‘meritocracy’ approach, this might not be so bad – you mix and match veterans and rookies for optimum results. But Papelbon, Contreras, Bastardo, Kendrick, Qualls, and probably Willis have guaranteed roster spots, leaving 1-2 slots for Herndon, Stutes (who have established themselves already) as well as the guys you want to get experience.
If most of the non-guaranteed guys were pretty likely not to be able to cut it, this would be a great signing. But I think it’s highly unlikely that half of them couldn’t do it, let alone most of them. You could potentially find 2-3 guys who deserve a roster spot (25-man, that is) wasting away at Lehigh Valley this year, gaining them nothing at all.
Fare thee well, JM. In my book, you were the Greatest.
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=7890127&c_id=mlb
by Missing Jamie Moyer on Jan 31, 2012 4:35 PM EST up reply actions
If qualls gets lit up, he'd get cut though, no?
by benderbrodriguez on Jan 31, 2012 4:56 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, but this is not a binary black-and-white kind of thing.
If he’s terrible, he’ll get cut – after a while. If he’s so-so, he won’t get cut even if the young guys are better.
Hmm, that's true
You never know how long of a leash he’ll get
by benderbrodriguez on Jan 31, 2012 5:04 PM EST up reply actions
Keep in mind we kept Danys Baez on the roster for a season and a half.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 31, 2012 5:22 PM EST up reply actions
actually, aside from Papelbon we didn’t give anyone more than 1 year which is pretty significant, IMO.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
Easy to say that after the way Baez pitched the last two years. Prior to that he was league average or better every year except 2007, and he had a ProvenCloser™ pedigree.
by topherstarr on Jan 31, 2012 12:54 PM EST up reply actions
Qualls is coming off a bad year, but his career numbers are good
And the commitment is low
by benderbrodriguez on Jan 31, 2012 12:53 PM EST up reply actions
I’m not quite as fond of this as you, but relievers do have this performance variance issue. See Lidge, Brad for more on this. Or even Qualls, early 2011 vs. Qualls late 2011.
GMAT verbal section question, Philadelphia sports version.
In 2015, which one of the following will prove to be a better investment?
(a) Ilya Bryzgalov's contract (b) Ryan Howard's extension (c) Mike Vick's extension (d) Greek bonds from 2009 (e) Papelbon's bloat deal
I’m not bothered by the possibility of Stutes, Schwimmer, or De Fratus not breaking camp with the team. Those guys will get their chance eventually, and a little extra time in AAA probably isn’t bad for them. And Qualls projects as at least an average pitcher for 2012. 2-3 years ago, we’d have been ecstatic over this signing. It’s pretty good value.
What about Herndon though? Does he still have an option? I really don’t want to see them lose him to waivers.
Actually, Chad Qualls is a pretty good comp for David Herndon. Or, actually, Chad Qualls could be David Herndon’s ceiling.
Well, yeah. I think Herndon right now is roughly equal to Qualls right now, and Herndon is considerably younger, cheaper, and under team control.
It just depends. Take out HR/FB luck and they weren’t terribly different last year. Herndon walked a few more, struck out a few more, but they were close. Of course, Qualls was more than 3 K/9 off his best seasons. Herndon could possibly get there, though. It’s kind of hard to judge his development because of the Rule 5 year.
I thought Herndon’s 2011 was pretty encouraging even though his final numbers were not that great. His splits were all over the place (ridiculously bad in April, then excellent in the middle of the year, then bad in September). But I’d rather have that than consistent mediocrity, at least from an inexperienced pitcher. It suggests he’s capable of improving a lot.
Normally I like a depth signing. Except when we already have a crap ton of it stored in the minors.
Ed Snider is a crotchety old fuck.
That is all.
yeah that’s pretty much how I feel, but at the same time it seems like he’s coming in to be the set up man™ so I’m not sure if it qualifies as a depth signing.
All things considered, I'd rather be in Philadelphia
by Veni Vidi Vici on Jan 31, 2012 2:23 PM EST up reply actions
choose your own lehigh valley pitching staff!
Candidates:
Aumont, Brummett, Bump, Bush, Chapman, Cisco, Cloyd, De Fratus, Diekman, Elarton, Ellis, Feierabend, Friend, Gailey, Herndon, Horst, Hyatt, Kissock, Misch, Naylor, Pineiro, Purcey, Ramirez, Rosenberg, Sanches, Savery, Schwimer, Valdes
25 of those guys. Teach them to hit. Or even better, teach them to play third.
GMAT verbal section question, Philadelphia sports version.
In 2015, which one of the following will prove to be a better investment?
(a) Ilya Bryzgalov's contract (b) Ryan Howard's extension (c) Mike Vick's extension (d) Greek bonds from 2009 (e) Papelbon's bloat deal
we could have the next adam loewen or rick ankiel? do it!
by Jokes & Burns on Jan 31, 2012 1:03 PM EST up reply actions
More 1B than LF, and not much of either. He played P and DH in college. In the minors, he has 115 games at P, 19 at 1B, and 12 at LF.
Bob.
by The Dark on Feb 1, 2012 12:26 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
or can they just option him to Lehigh now at beginning of the season? Not totally sure how it works with former Rule 5ers after couple years
why? He makes league minimum, and has minor league options left.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
In fact, he’ll make a minor league salary if he gets sent to the minors.
Posted this in the other thread, but I’ve sort of been wondering if the Phillies are planning to keep only 6 relievers after Howard gets back. If they keep 7, they’ll only have room for 1 backup outfielder, unless you count Wigginton as a second backup outfielder. In that case, we could end up seeing Stutes get sent back to AAA too in addition to Herndon.
I actually think thats a big reason why They’re signing veteran releivers. Charlie likes “his guys” and has a hard time trusting the young arms sometimes. Personally, I’d rather see a 6 man bullpen that was used effectively as opposed to last season when we had 7 guys, and basically only used 4 of them (Madson, Stutes, Bastardo, Kendrick) for the majority of the season.
If it was me my rotation would be Halladay, Lee, Worley, Hamels, Blanton. Breaks up the lefties, and puts less stress on the back to back bullpen days when Worley and Blanton start. If they do that a 6 man pen makes sense.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
by Joecatz on Jan 31, 2012 2:34 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
out of necessity, not out of desire. He was also forced to turn to his 3rd string closer.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
It’s really pretty sickening when you think about it. But I don’t think it’s gonna change until 2014.
So November our expected pen was:
Madson (re-sign), Contreras, Stutes, Bastardo, Kendrick, Herndon, PIG, probably 17mm total.
Today?
Pap, Contreras, Qualls, Kendrick, Bastardo, Willis, Stutes. @22mm
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
But why would it change in 2014?
If this management has the mindset that they’re not comfortable with youth playing significant roles on this team, why would they suddenly stop bringing in 30+ yr old journeymen relievers of Baezian composition?
There’s always a guy like Qualls or Baez or Contreras available, and it seems to me that this front office prefers those types of guys over their own young talent.
because Charlies contract only runs through 2013.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
That’s an asinine way to run a franchise though. Charlie works for them, not the other way around. And I don’t see why the post-2013 path wouldn’t proceed as follows:
1. Hire stupid manager
2. Manager requests stupid things.
3. Make stupid player/personnel moves at behest of stupid manager.
I agree that Charlie is an ass when it comes to managing a pen. I’m just pointing out the obvious, which is it’s been like this as long as he’s been here, and it isn’t gonna change as long as he is the manager, which is for the next two years.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
That’s fine, and I agree. I was just asking why you think that this pattern would necessarily change in 2014, if we assume that the same front office is going to be in place.
I suppose it’s possible it could but I’ve got no real reason to believe that this group is going to do anything other than that which they’ve done in the past. That would entail either hiring a manager who does dumb things like requesting veteran options over potential cheaper, in-house solutions and then give in to his requests when it comes to the types of players they acquire or—and this is the more likely scenario in my opinion—hire a manager who generally agrees with their organizational philosophy which is one that places an undue premium on ‘proven veterans’ to the detriment of the potential youth they have available in the system.
I guess what I’m saying is that while I agree that Charlie is an obstacle to the youth movement here, I’m not convinced that he isn’t a product of a larger issue with the organization, and that won’t change just because Chaz is gone.
In fairness to Joe, Ruben and Charlie do seem to disagree on some things. I don’t think the FO is keeping Charlie around because they’ve quizzed him on the fine points of management philosophy and found that he was in agreement with them. I think they just decided that Charlie gets the big things right – his players respect him and his results are good – and they let him do what he wants on smaller-picture issues.
So when Charlie hangs em up, I don’t think his successor will necessarily be similar to him. The larger issue is that there’s probably no manager on earth who manages the way you or I would like him to. Even Billy Beane’s manager in Moneyball was a guy who didn’t really buy into Billy Beane’s philosophy. So my snarky comment above had a kernel of truth to it – the next manager might not be like Charlie, but if not then he’ll probably have blind spots in some other areas where Charlie doesn’t have them.
I dont necessarily think it will change, although if you are in the group that believes (assuming someone else doesn’t snag him) Sandberg is the heir apparent, his familiarity with the young guys lends him to be more likely to have confidence in them.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
Meh...
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 31, 2012 1:55 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
So....
Phil’s pass on Lidge for $1 mil, sign Qualls for 1.15 mil. Seems to me Lidge is the higher upside guy at present. I guess they were just looking at Qualls for his health and ability to trot out ther whenever UC wants to use him? I dunno.
We have no way of knowing if Lidge would have taken a comparable contract from the Phillies.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
Why...
Would you feel that that was an unreasonable assumption?
Because he’d be taking a significant paycut from the Phils. $12 million per to $1 mill is quite a drop.
"I wouldn’t run if there was a fire. I wouldn’t run anywhere. I hate running." - O. Munn
He was going to take a pay cut anyway, no matter where he signed. Why not take one from a team that you had previously been successful with?
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 31, 2012 5:24 PM EST up reply actions
Pride? Maybe the Phillies didn’t want him at any price. IDK.
"I wouldn’t run if there was a fire. I wouldn’t run anywhere. I hate running." - O. Munn
From what Lidge said last week, this appears to be the case. Lidge said that when the offseason started, he was under the impression that if he couldn’t find a gig as a closer elsewhere, there would be a spot for him in another role in Philly. When he came back to the Phillies after exhausting all the closing possibilities, Ruben told him that coming back was no longer a option.
Lidges deal isn’t for 1MM it’s a 1MM BASE with incentives for IP, appearances, games finished, etc… If he’s healthy and effective its probably closer to 2.5 to 3mm. No thanks.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
As much as our farm system has taken a beating recently
The one area where we seem to have a lot of depth is relief pitchers. And yet, we seem intent on stockpiling as many old arms as we can add to the bullpen.
So yeah I’m kind of over this off season. I try not to get myself caught up in the whole “Negadelphia” stuff but I have almost a weekly feeling like I’m watching the slow demise of the team just from the roster moves that are being made. Hopefully it’s nothing more than me being cynical and the feelings will go away once the season actually starts.
All things considered, I'd rather be in Philadelphia
Seidman offers his take on the deal. I’m inclined to agree with him.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
Why? What could he possibly get for them that would be of any value to us?
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 31, 2012 2:34 PM EST up reply actions
Well, consider this logic
1. Ruben like to make trades (Cliff Lee, Travis d’Arnaud)
2. Ruben then later regrets those trades
3. We just traded Ben Francisco for a bullpen arm
4. Now we trade a bullpen arm back for Ben Francisco!
Well this is an unnecessary annoyance.
Editor at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
I understand the displeasure with this signing, but this is the kind of situation that makes the common fan afraid of advanced statistics. Over-analyzing Chad Qualls has some relevance to some extent, but at some point you just need to shrug and cease to care about 1m relief pitchers. You guys have made me care about advanced stats, and I appreciate it, but signings like this just need not take up more than 3 seconds of your day. It will take 20 years off your life if every “negative value” signing upsets ya. Save your energy for the trade deadline, I’m sure we’re going to need it.
There’s nothing else to talk about right now. We’ll have plenty of energy to get upset when the trade deadline approaches. And no, it won’t take 20 years off our life. If we’re lucky it won’t even cost us more than 5.
Here’s what I envision in scenarios like this: advanced stats tel us Qualls is a stupid signing. He’ll put up mediocre first half numbers, and maybe his “TV stats” will look alright. Then come the trade deadline, when this site clamors against a trade, the philly.com folk point to Qualls as evidence that we have no idea what we’re talking about. Maybe I need a new hat.
You’re going to have to explain this one to me. Why exactly would they use Qualls as evidence we don’t know what we’re talking about?
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Jan 31, 2012 9:51 PM EST up reply actions
They don’t understand anything we talk about, so logically, anything they don’t understand is evidence that we’re morons.
Actually I think the reasoning would go: You create your own luck by working hard, all our fancy book learnings couldn’t show us how much heart Chad Qualls has, and now that he’s having a good season, we’ve been shown to be the nerds who don’t understand that baseball isn’t played in spreadsheets, it’s played on the field where intangibles win!
I see where you’re going, but I don’t think I buy it. The Philly.com crowd isn’t going to read this site, then conclude sabermetrics are bunk if Qualls has a decent “TV year”. To the extent they think about sabermetrics at all, they think it’s bunk because the “talent” on WIP and The Fanatic think it’s bunk, and they’re NEVER going to change their minds because 1) they’re too dumb/lazy/both to learn new ideas, or 2) they’re too stubborn to admit there might be a better way to think about baseball, or 3) they’re paid to be dumb, lazy, stubbon loudmouths.
If Angelo Cataldi got struck by lightning or something this afternoon and started raving about advanced statistics, THEN the Philly.com crowd might start to think they’re legit. So I guess that’s one more reason to wish Angelo Cataldi would get struck by lightening.
Yeah, what he said
I doubt many of the philly.commenters even know this site exists.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Feb 1, 2012 2:18 PM EST up reply actions
I doubt many of the philly.commenters even know this site exists.
Let’s hope this status continues.
GMAT verbal section question, Philadelphia sports version.
In 2015, which one of the following will prove to be a better investment?
(a) Ilya Bryzgalov's contract (b) Ryan Howard's extension (c) Mike Vick's extension (d) Greek bonds from 2009 (e) Papelbon's bloat deal
Oh God, could you imagine?
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Feb 2, 2012 12:12 AM EST up reply actions
Actually, I imagine it’d be like this, except angrier.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Feb 2, 2012 12:35 AM EST up reply actions
We’re just making sure we’re in shape before Spring Training.
Bob.
by The Dark on Feb 1, 2012 12:31 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
You know, after digesting this today, aside from my disappointment in the reality that the pig penners likely don’t get to strut their stuff this season, consider this:
Aside from Papelbon, our entire bullpen, save Contreras, and Kendrick will be made up of low risk veterans or pre-arb players on 1 year deals.
Say what you want about the front office, but this is the first season in a long time where they didn’t sign a non closer type reliever to a multi year deal.
This is actually a sign in the right direction, for me.
Baby steps.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
Good point. Maybe there’s some sneaky reverse psychology if these marginal presences fail, the younguns can take their places with less pressure to succeed immediately.
by Wet Luzinski on Jan 31, 2012 10:21 PM EST up reply actions
I think too, the 1 year deals say more about their faith in the system moving forward. If you think about it, aside from Papelbon, we have no one other than those young guys under team control for 2013…
These low risk moves, along with just signing pence to a 1 year deal, say to me two things:
1) We’re going to do what we can to put what we think is the best team to win on the field without mortgaging our future
2) We don’t want to commit A DIME MORE than we need to for 2013 until we know whats going on with COLE
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
My cynical side thinks it more likely says “We need roster space and cash available to sign Josh Hamilton, Mike Napoli and Matt Cain next November.” YMMV
ha. Maybe, either way the point is for the first tie in as many off seasons as I can remember they didn’t make a pure “go for it this year” overpay. (Say what you want about Papelbons deal, but they did that IMO because he was in their minds not just the best closer on the market, but the best closer to come available in years, and likely the best available for a few years…. Rivera aside) That signing, bad or not, was about cost and positional certainty in their minds, as ass backwards as it is in relation to reality.
Every other move has been calculated, cost conscious, low risk, high reward.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
If this Qualls signing is because Jose Contreras is not inspiring the Phillies and they want Qualls to do what Contreras would have done anyway, I guess it’s not that big of a deal. Still a bit of an annoyance for the young kids in Lehigh who are close to being MLB ready, if not there already, though.
Editor at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
With this much depth, Lehigh Valley is guaranteed for a playoff ticket.
"I quit school in the 6th grade because of pneumonia. Not because I had it, but because I couldn't spell it."
by secondroundpick on Jan 31, 2012 9:19 PM EST reply actions
pitching depth to be exact
"I quit school in the 6th grade because of pneumonia. Not because I had it, but because I couldn't spell it."
by secondroundpick on Jan 31, 2012 9:29 PM EST up reply actions
i don’t hate the deal since we don’t lose anybody, just put them in the minors. Which, IMO, isn’t the worst thing. Sure, Schwimmer or Aumont could be better this year, but they still have a bright future. That, and at least they’ll get consistent playing time in the minors compared to bitch inning with the Phills.
"I'm terrible" - Ilya Bryzgalov
I don’t know if there will be room for all of these guys in the minors. One or two of them might get dropped.
So here’s a question. You’ve got 26 guys at Lehigh. Who gets sent down, an AAA-level prospect (i.e. DeFratus) who needs work at that level, or a veteranny AAAA guy (i.e. Pineiro) who signed a Minor League deal and isn’t currently on the big league roster?
Yes. Who gets (or should get) demoted from Lehigh to Reading, the AAA prospect or the AAAA replacement-level guy.
Frankly, if Bush, Bump and other bums whose names don’t start with a “B” don’t show something in ST, they should be cut. For the AAA/AAAA guys, it depends on the player. I’d keep DeFratus in AA so he can Close, while Aumont Closes in Lehigh (or vice versa). Schwimer and Savery stay in Lehigh. Horst can go to AA. etc.
I agree. I think it would be fun to see a AAA bullpen of Aumont, De Fratus, Diekman, Herndon, Horst, Savery, and Schwimer. Not as fun as seeing 1 or 2 of those guys in the majors, but still fun.
I’m afraid, though, that the same philosophy that says “we need Chad Qualls’ veteran dependability in the majors, we can’t rely on unproven guys” will lead the FO to say “we need Brian Sanches’ and Raul Valdes’ veteran dependability in AAA in case there’s an injury, we can’t call up unproven guys.” In which case one or two of the seven young guys above either gets undeservedly demoted or dumped on another team.
I actually think Sanches and Valdes were good signings, especially Valdes. But if you’re not going to allow your young guys to pitch in the majors, then you should at least let them pitch in AAA, and I’d rather have Valdes be the casualty of the numbers crunch than one of them.
I think Aumont is safe, by the way. The org is high on him and rightfully so. And I kind of wanted him to pitch at Lehigh all year anyway, so that’s kind of a silver lining for me.
I think Diekman is safe too, but a little less so. And De Fratus a little less so. The other guys aren’t safe.
I think Diekman is this year’s Rizzotti, they protected him to keep him out of the Rule V, but he’ll have a short leash. If his control remains erratic and they need a 40 man spot, he could get DFA’d.
So we have the It’s Gonna Suck No Matter Who Wins Bowl this Sunday and the most beloved Frenchman in Philly is gone. Seriously Rube couldn’t you have waited a week. Don’t know what to do now meh has turned to bleh.
I have a feeling our music collections would be hard to distinguish from one another due in part to having alot of the same records but also in their sheer awesomeness.
Does that one guy think Mayberry is a switch hitter?
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Feb 1, 2012 4:56 PM EST up reply actions
Comment threads are the Internet’s greatest contribution to human civilization indicator of the state of human civilization.
I think that’s more accurate.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Feb 1, 2012 5:19 PM EST up reply actions
Comment threads are the Internet’s greatest indicator of the state of human civilization.
We’re fucked.
Wait, this isn’t philly.com.
"I wouldn’t run if there was a fire. I wouldn’t run anywhere. I hate running." - O. Munn
But philly.com is philly.com…
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Feb 1, 2012 6:46 PM EST up reply actions
Hoping to catch the magic of 2008, I see.
"I wouldn’t run if there was a fire. I wouldn’t run anywhere. I hate running." - O. Munn
So Taguchi’s available. Plus he is a winner, he won with the Cards too.
GMAT verbal section question, Philadelphia sports version.
In 2015, which one of the following will prove to be a better investment?
(a) Ilya Bryzgalov's contract (b) Ryan Howard's extension (c) Mike Vick's extension (d) Greek bonds from 2009 (e) Papelbon's bloat deal
Jackson close to signing with Nats
Anybody else think airport is a weird place to be seen for a physical?
By the way, that would be a nice rotation. Not great, but nice.
Strasburg
Zimmermann
Gonzalez
Jackson
Lannan
Lannan lost his arbitration case
Until the Jackson signing is official, Lannan is the highest paid pitcher on the Nationals. (Assuming Jackson will get more than $5 million)
Fangraphs has an article saying the Nationals are trying to trade Lannan. I’m not entirely sure why.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Feb 2, 2012 2:11 PM EST up reply actions
I just saw Rosenthal and Morosi reported that too.
That is one guy I’d be glad to see out of the division
I am really glad that...
…we are worried about the 33rd guy out of the pen, rather than how our Opening Day starter, John Lieber, is looking coming to camp.
All hail the Chad Qualls Era!
Seriously? 270+ posts? For Chad Qualls? For who(m)? For what?
This reeks of people chomping at the bit for baseball.
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Feb 2, 2012 10:57 PM EST via mobile reply actions
This reeks of people chomping at the bit for baseball.
’tis true.
though, to be fair, much of it wasn’t really about Chad Qualls
Seattle’s pitchers and catchers report a week from Sunday (a week before anyone else), and the Phillies and many others the following week. schedule
Seattle and Oakland start the regular season a week early in Tokyo, but only Seattle is starting ST earlier.
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Celebrating over 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1961-2011
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