It may be short season ball, but it's not short on talent.
This is the Fifth in a series of prospect focused reviews of the Phillies Minor League system. We'll go club by club and look at the good, the bad and the ugly. The focus is on players who may help the Phillies, so I won't be discussing the positives of Troy Hanzawa or Scott Elarton, for example.
Kevin Brady - 6'3" 200 lbs RHP 21 years old Started his time after the draft as the really old guy in the GCL, but finished in the somewhat more age appropriate NYPL. Barely pitched in the GCL, so I'll give combined stats. 42 2/3 IP, 1.90 ERA, 2.19 SIERA, 2.26 FIP, 11.39 K/9, 1.48 BB/9, 1.29 WHIP, .358 BABIP
Brady's maybe slightly old for the NYPL, but even with that, that's a pretty good line. Brady works in the low to mid 90's and has a developing slider and change-up. Brady has a bit of an injury history from his time at Clemson, not Joe Savery bad, but a few injuries which raise a bit of a red flag. 2013 will probably be half a season in Lakewood and half a season in Clearwater. If he can keep K and BB rates like these...
Geoff Broussard - 6'0" 185 lbs RHP 21 years old Split his time between Williamsport and a few days in Lakewood. I'm just jamming the lines together since it was only 1 pretty rough inning in Lakewood. 33 2/3 IP, 2.41 ERA, 2.92 SIERA, 2.64 FIP, 9.62 K/9, 2.14 BB/9, 1.28 WHIP, 44.7% GB
A 23rd round pick out of Cal Poly Pomona, so far, so good for Broussard. Good ground ball rates, and piled up the K's with few BB's. He's a little bit old for the league, but I expect he'll be pushed next year. Possibly even double jumped (though his early move to Lakewood was rough, it was only 1 inning). Interesting guy to keep an eye on.
Larry "Fudgie" Greene Jr. - 6'0" 235 lbs OF 19 years old Spent the summer in Willaimsport. 69 G, .273/.375/.383, .110 ISO, 25.8% K, 13.7% BB, 22 doubles
Oh, if only Fudgie were a Middle Infielder I'd be raving about this line. First the bad: a .110 ISO is not what anyone was hoping for from a guy expected to be a power hitting corner player (LF or 1B) when he was drafted, and a +25% K rate for a guy who doesn't hit homers isn't optimal. Lastly there were rumors that Greene may have been in, shall we say sub-optimal shape when he reported to camp. Certainly it's a bit of a red flag, but I think the Phillies may deserve some blame here too. Was Greene given a workout plan after signing last fall? A diet? I know when I was 18, if left to my own devices after being drafted in the first round, I'd probably have made worse decisions. If Larry doesn't show up next Spring looking like a worldbeater, having learned a lesson, then there may be serious concerns. As it is, I'm not going to get too worked up about it. But let's not be all negative. That's not a bad total for doubles (which may have some potential for homers as Mr. Greene adds muscle and perhaps adjusts his swing). And that walk rate is awesome and a good sign for his future, as that kind of discipline can be hard to teach.
Tyler Greene - 6'2" 175 lbs 2B 19 years old Tyler spent a bad month in Lakewood after being promoted somewhat aggressively out of Spring Training. Things didn't get any better in Williamsport. SAL: 23 G, .147/.270/.267, .120 ISO, 41.6% K, 14.6% BB, .263 BABIP NYPL: 59 G, .214/.249/.316, .102 ISO, 37.0% K, 4.3% BB, .331 BABIP
Greene had a rather good season in 2011 after being drafted, so a double jump to the Sally seemed reasonable. His K rate was a bit of a red flag, but he had an excellent walk rate and it was a small sample size, so perhaps it was an anomaly. Apparently it wasn't. Now, the walk rate is still excellent (less so in NYPL, but Tyler may have really been pressing by that point trying to break out with some hits. That K rate is kind of insane, but a few players have overcome such high K rates to have MLB careers. It's unlikely and it's a big red flag for a guy with marginal power potential, but it's far too early to write Tyler Greene off as a prospect. He'll try Lakewood again next Spring, he needs to get the K rate down into the 20's and maintain that high walk rate.
Chace Numata - 6'0" 175 lbs C 20 years old Other than an odd, 1 game double jump to Clearwater, whole season was spent in the NYPL. 43 G, .238/.293/.323, .085 ISO, 12.0% K, 7.1% BB, .259 BABIP, 21% CS, 11 PB
Perhaps I'm partial to Numata solely for his soulful work on the ukelele, but I do like some things in his numbers. The K and BB rate are excellent, and I assume the BABIP is below what his normal BABIP should be. That said, the defensive numbers are pretty marginal, there's no power and he isn't too young for his league. Lino, Rupp, Ludy, Joseph, Valle... where does Numata fit? For the time being he stays behind the plate, but it would be nice to see some element of his game improve to the extent he has some strong point in his game to hang his hat on. He's likely to start off in Lakewood splitting time with Gabriel Lino behind the dish.
Cameron Perkins - 6'5" 195 lbs 1B/3B/OF 21 years old Spent most of the year in NYPL aside from a few games in the GCL, where he was the old guy at the show. 71 G, .291/.337/.386, .095 ISO, 13.6% K, 4.5% BB
Perkins was drafted to be a big power bat at 3rd base. Well, there was no power, but it's easy to imagine there could be some to come given his size. Of course if every big guy became a great power hitter or power pitcher, the draft and player development would be insanely easy. Perkins has a good level swing, a good OFB rate and a decent number of doubles, so there's reason to believe the power could come. Positional flexibility is nice and even if Perkins maxes out as a competent version of Wigginton, I'd be perfectly fine with that.
Roman Quinn - 5'10" 170 lbs SS 19 years old Spent the summer in Williamsport. 65 G, .285/.375/.414, .129 ISO, 19.3% K, 9.2% BB, .361 BABIP, 83.3% SB, 30 SB
Legit 80 speed. After a year of watching Billy Hamilton bunt for triples and score from first on infield singles, I am crazy excited about watching him in the majors. Hamilton has once in a generation potential as a base stealer, Quinn is only a step or two behind Hamilton, and in a few years it could be like watching the speedsters of the 1980's like Vince Coleman and Ricky Henderson. Like Hamilton, Quinn's bat seems to get him on base often enough to utilize his speed, while his defense may eventually move him back to Centerfield. Reports on Quinn's defense seem to be that a lot of his errors may be due to range and a lack of experience at the position. He'll get another year or two at Short, but a move to Center isn't out of the question. 2013 includes a move to full season ball in Lakewood, where hopefully the K rate can come down a little and the defense can improve. High ceiling, very high ceiling.
Christopher Serritella - 6'3" 205 lbs 1B 22 years old After the draft spent the year in Williamsport. 75 G, .297/.349/.437, .142 ISO, 16.6% K, 7.2% BB, 6 HR, 24 Doubles
It has to be power and all power to stick at first. Sure the occasional Olerud or Loney or Hernandez can make a career out solid OBP, defense or some other skill, but First is most often a power position. Good power for Serritella in his debut, fairly good plate discipline and an awful lot of doubles for a guy without much speed suggests more power may be coming. The rubber will hit the road next year. A double jump to Clearwater wouldn't surprise me.
Mitch Walding - 6'3" 190 lbs 3B 19 yrs old Full short season in Williamsport. 68 G, .232/.324/.308, .076 ISO, 22.6% K, 10.4% BB, 71.4% SB, .306 BABIP
Scouts rave about Walding and still expect he has a high ceiling to hit for a good enough average and average to above average power with Defense good enough at the hot corner. The K rate is okay, the walk rate is strong, especially so for a guy considered to be very raw at the time he was drafted, , but the power is basically non-existent yet. Still, for a guy who was considered so raw, with good plate discipline, I expect he can turn it around. Collier had a similar season in '08 (albeit with a better batting average), and when a guy has good plate discipline, combined with great athleticism, there's always a chance the switch clicks on or that they figure it out quickly. Walding will go to full season ball in 2013, where a line similar to Franco's would be an awesome success.
Jordan Guth -Guth was a 9th round pick in 2012. He's a big Righthander who walks no one. Unfortunately, he didn't really strike anyone out either. Still, he's a big projectable guy and he's only 21 and a cold weather player there's still potential; so he'll probably go to Lakewood in 2013, but a move to the bullpen could be in his future, in the hopes of his stuff playing up and getting more K's.
Nicholas Hanson - Tall Righty who had really bad luck with the log ball this year. For as tall as he is (6'7") I'd expect to see more walks on his stat sheet, but he averaged 1.0 BB/9 (though, again, not a ton of K's). Still, projectable, the control is promising, so a move to the Lakewood BP seems reasonable for 2013.
Zach Taylor - 12th round pick in 2012, he's a college OF with good size. The start to his pro career was pretty bad. Silver lining? His BABIP was really, really awful (.236), so perhaps that can improve (the medicine with the sugar? His batting average would still be low even with an extra 100 points of BABIP). Other silver lining? he hit a ton of Outfield Fly Balls, with no HRs (2 HR in his brief time in the GCL). I expect Taylor will get a shot at full season ball, but he'll need to show something, as his stats kinda sucked this year.
Josh Warner - Honestly, most all I know about Warner is he's from Australia, was signed as a Free Agent in 2010, and he recently celebrated his 20th birthday. So take it with a grain of salt, but his 2012 numbers were solid. Seems to have decent control, induces a fair share of ground balls and looks like he may one day be able to hold down a back of the rotation or long relief job, if everything progresses with no hiccups. Of course, it's the minors, so expect hiccups and be pleasantly surprised if someone avoids them or overcomes them. Warner's a ways away, as is everyone at this level.