Look at run differential - the Phillies are just under 100. They are fifth in run differential. Fortunately, teams 1 - 4 are in the AL, and three of those are in the AL East: NYY, BOS, TAM, TEX. I think the projections oversell teams at the bottom and undersell the ones at the top -- the teams that are at the bottom of the standings tend to dump players at the end of the year and start younger bodies (see: Astros, Houston) resulting in underperformance with respect to projections made at the start of the year. The Astros would have won more games in 2011 had they no traded Bourn and Pence, for instance. That said, I think the Phillies will exceed 92 wins, but I haven't projected them myself yet -- I will probably sit on that till mid-March.