2012 Phillies Player Preview: David Herndon
by FuquaManuel on Feb 16, 2012 2:13 PM EST
in 2012 Player Previews
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2011 Stats:
57.0 IP
39 SO
24 BB
3.32 ERA
5.08 FIP
4.13 xFIP
3.92 SIERA
Player pages: Fangraphs, Baseball Reference
It should be no surprise to most loyal TGP readers that, considering my trenchant defense of the unduly unpopular Phillies reliever during the 2011 season, I would volunteer to write his player preview. In fact, most of what I have to say about Herndon I have already said in my series of posts on him. Just to recap: back in May when Herndon -- the Phillies' 2010 Rule 5 selection -- was at the nadir of his popularity, lugging around a hefty 9.28 ERA, I argued for a more measured approach. Yes, Herndon was struggling, but it was far too soon to label him a bum, I contended. Provided Herndon could raise his strikeout rate just a bit (something for which there was already some precedent) he could be a valuable bullpen piece.
And indeed, after a stint in AAA to, presumably, work on some things, Herndon came back and raised his K-rate and his ERA plummeted. It required no special analytical skills to arrive at the conclusion that Herndon was much better than his early results suggested. Just a quick look at his peripheral stats and a recognition that his bad luck on balls in play and flyballs was not sustainable was enough. By the end of the season, Herndon's ERA had actually dropped below his ERA estimators (FIP/xFIP/SIERA) thanks in large part to a bizarre 3.2 inning relief appearance in a 5-4 extra-inning loss to the Marlins. He logged 7 walks -- 5 of them intentional -- but only one earned run in that game.
Pitchers who can post 50+% ground ball rates do not grow on trees, and that happens to be Herndon's main skill. By definition, groundballs cannot leave the ballpark, so they are the preferred form of ball in play for any pitcher, but especially for pitchers without sky-high K-rates. Herndon generates his groundballs with a 90-94 mph sinking fastball that he throws almost 70 percent of the time. He complements the pitch with a so-so slider and a changeup which he mixed in a bit more in 2011 with decent results. It's not as if Herndon is a pure "pitch to contact" type, either. As I noted above, he raised his K/9 from 4.99 in 2010 to 6.16 in 2011.
Still, it is not a certainty that Herndon will even make the Major League squad coming out of Spring Training. Presently, the Phillies bullpen depth chart is as follows: Jonathan Papelbon, Antonio Bastardo, Chad Qualls, Jose Contreras, Dontrelle Willis, Kyle Kendrick, Michael Stutes, and David Herndon. Whether Herndon makes the team will depend on several things: 1. How well he pitches in Spring Training, 2. Whether Charlie Manuel chooses to carry 13 pitchers (unlikely), 3. Whether Contreras is fully recovered from his elbow injury, 4. Whether Dontrelle Willis can find the strikezone 5. Whether Charlie Manuel prefers Michael Stutes to Herndon. With the strong likelihood of injuries over the course of a 162-game season, though, there's no doubt we'll see plenty of him in 2012. And when you do see him try to temper the moans and groans, because he's actually pretty good. If the Phillies find themselves in desperate need of a groundball, they shouldn't hesitate to call on Herndon.
I see no reason to believe that Herndon can't repeat or even improve upon his 2011 numbers in 2012.
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It’s kind of odd that the general public’s opinion of Herndon is so low. Usually, guys whose ERAs are better than their DIPS tend to get overrated, not underrated. But for some reason, people only seem to remember the games when Herndon allows runs and they forget the games when he doesn’t.
Herndon’s been slightly below league-average the last two years, but he’s been inconsistent, which isn’t entirely a bad thing since it suggests that his ceiling might be higher than he’s shown. I predict that he’ll be right at league-average in 2012 if he gets any playing time, which is just fine for a league-minimum guy.
There’s a pretty fair chance that neither Herndon nor Stutes will open the season with the Phillies. I could see them going with a six-man bullpen, at least while Howard’s out, and if Contreras is healthy, there will be six “proven veterans” to take those spots (if you count Bastardo).
He only pitches well in mop-up games. He sucks in the clutch.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Feb 16, 2012 3:43 PM EST up reply actions
Taco, I think I can help elaborate on why so many people (myself included) for such a long time had a poor opinion of DH.
For starters, he began the year with a 13 something ERA. I know that ERA isn’t really all that important when judging a pitcher, but for the casual fan it’s shocking and whomever stated that first impressions last a lifetime wasn’t kidding. He had some horrible BABIP to begin the season and he started off terribly, so most people thought he sucked.
…Boy, that sounds familiar, I wonder what other young player on the Phillies struggled and now everyone thinks he sucks…
Anywho, after a trip to AAA he had a resurgence, and I’d love to run the numbers on what his stats were post that AAA trip as I bet they’d be even further improved than the numbers he ended up posting at the end of the year. It’s similar to what people on this blog felt about Michael Stutes, who had a great BABIP average to start the year, and everyone loved him and called him the future reliever of the franchise, and then he came back down to earth towards the end of the year.
I think both Herndon/Stutes/Bastardo will form the core of our bullpen by the end of 2012 season and we won’t need to keep taking flyers on people like Qualls and Willis.
Why do casual fans all love John Mayberry so much? Mayberry’s season sort of paralleled Herndon’s if you think about it. His BA was below .200 when he played full time during Victorino’s first DL stint last year. Then, like the hitting version of Herndon, he went to AAA and put up excellent numbers when he came back.
The only thing I can think of is “clutchiness”. Or maybe he’s just a convenient alternative for people who want to see Dom Brown fail.
That’s an interesting question. I think part of it may have to do with perception of pitchers vs. position players. Pitchers, fairly or unfairly, are often blamed for “blowing” games, because when the other team is hitting them hard it’s easy to single them out. Position players on the other hand share the offensive and defensive burden with 8 other players. Thus, I think some of Herndon’s unpopularity is do to the perception that he directly lost games for the Phillies, whereas Mayberry only “didn’t win” them.
This, of course, raises the Brown issue. He plays the same position, but unlike Mayberry has been unduly penalized by fans for his bad moments. This might be explained by the fact that Mayberry is a better defensive player than Brown. Similar to pitchers, when position players botch outs it’s easy to single them out (fair or not). But offensively, even the best fail more times than they succeed on average.
Just thinking out loud here. I do think it’s an interesting example, though.
Most casual fans thought Mayberry was a wasted roster spot for a long time too.
There’s gonna be a moment This season, sometime, when Dom does something, to turn everyone back his way. It might be a diving grab with the bases loaded that saves a win, it mig be an upper deck swagger grand slam, it might be as simple as hustling out a slow roller late in a game that starts a huge come from behind two out rally…
But rest assured, itll happen, and al of the I told ya SOS will turn into I told ya ya SOS to a different tune, the writers will start talking about how his hamate sapped his power, ET al… And he’ll be a fixture.
Take it to the bank.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
I think there’s some truth to this, but at the same time, it’s not a direct correlation between [apparently good results —> fans like you] and [apparently bad results —> fans hate you]. Bobby Abreu got to be hated at the end even though he was still a very good player. Once Dom does some good stuff out there, he’ll undoubtedly be treated better than he’s being treated right now (he could hardly be treated any worse), but he won’t necessarily get treatment anywhere near as good as what he deserves relative to others.
you may be right, but I hope your wrong.
If nothing else, we can say we kept the faith. Thats worth something.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
I hope so too.
You rarely see someone go from flat-out whipping boy to beloved in this town. On a scale of 0 to 10, you can move about 5 notches, but you can’t move 7 or 8 notches.
I think Cole Hamels is a pretty good case… but he was kind of all over the scale. I guess you’d say he wasn’t really a whipping boy but during the 2009 season and especially after he was being called a bum, two pitch wonder, ect. I agree with you that Dom might not be able to turn it around completely, but I think he can get there with a season and a half of showing what the kid can really do… or at least I hope.
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Feb 17, 2012 12:13 PM EST up reply actions
I think Cole only went down to like a 3. And even at his greatest height in ‘08, he was never a 10. But yeah he’s the best possible precedent.
What about Schmidt? I’m too young to remember, but I understand he wasn’t terribly popular early in his career.
I think he is more an example of never getting out of the dog house (at least during his career). Clearly he was liked in town because he was redic good, but he was still liked less than his skills would suggest. At least that’s what I’ve heard.
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Feb 17, 2012 1:19 PM EST up reply actions
nah, people didn’t like Schmidt because he was a dick. No one ever questioned his ability on the field.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
They also thought he lollygagged it. Thought he was too cool for school.
A tie may be like kissing your sister, but it's better than getting screwed by a skills competition.
And they said he wasn’t clutch and “always” struck out when the game was on the line. I heard this firsthand.
Yeah this is what I was hinting at above. But I was not at all around for this, just heard it second hand.
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Feb 17, 2012 3:27 PM EST up reply actions
Me too. Or rather, I was only around for the tail end of Schmidt’s “doghouse” period, and I only remember it vaguely. At the very end (like 1986-retirement), the fans finally got won over. I think you’re right, though, that he was never totally despised during the doghouse period, just disliked and very very underappreciated.
I remembered reading lot of casual fans insist Mayberry and not Brown was the future of the Phillies.
I have always liked both Brown and Mayberry. I know Mayberry is likeily in for a rude regressioning ( note: this is a play on rude awakening, I know regressioning is not a word) but it would be great if ISOberry and Dom could be really and in our outfield for a long time.
However the fight may be lost because Dom’s dad couldn’t play professional ball after age 23… so we can only expect him to decline now I’m afraid.
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Feb 17, 2012 12:16 PM EST up reply actions
But, Mayberry got hitting tips from Atlantis he could pass on.
"Learning to eat soup with a knife"
by h2o_34_35_44 on Feb 17, 2012 12:23 PM EST up reply actions
Because when a hitter goes down to AAA and tinkers with his swing it’s noticeable. The announcers talk about it, and when the guy has success it’s because he “finally figured it out”. also, offense is important to the casual fan.
Pitching mechanics are more difficult to see, and One or two bad outings from a releif pitcher can skew his traditoonals on the whole year. Also, announcers rarely, if ever notice changes.
Plus, it can take 10-15 outings for a pitcher to look good to the casual fan if the ever get it. With a guy like Mayberry, it takes one or two swings.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
by Joecatz on Feb 16, 2012 8:17 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I’m really glad you found this corner of the internet.
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Feb 16, 2012 9:14 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 2 recs
Yeah Joe and this is especially bad for pitchers because for a relief pitcher to have 10 -15 outings can take more than a month… casual fans’ memories are not that good really… even if they “watch the games”.
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Feb 17, 2012 12:18 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t know anyone who wants to see Dom fail. He’s a good young man with a ton of talent. Also if you’re going to go with the hidden racism than you countered your argument with the beginning of your post speaking about how much people love Mayberry.
"Learning to eat soup with a knife"
by h2o_34_35_44 on Feb 17, 2012 12:55 AM EST up reply actions
I’m pretty sure I didn’t make that argument, but if I wanted to, it’s not as if racism is rational. Ever hear a white guy say “I’m not racist because I have black friend” and then say something really racist right after that?
besides, racism applies here too: Mayberry is seen as “well-spoken”, “articulate”. He “hustles”. He effectively “passes”.
Maybe. That explanation can get pretty convoluted though. For one thing it isn’t consistently applied: Donovan McNabb was hated despite being far “whiter” than many of his teammates who were loved, which brings you right back to topher’s irrationality point. For another thing it’s at least theoretically possible to have an honest preference for “hustling” players where your assessment of “hustlingness” is based on some consistent, principled standard and where you’re not putting a thumb on the scale in perceiving white players to be more “hustling.” I suppose one could then say, well, hustling is an inherently white attribute, so preferring hustling is inherently racist. But then that leads to all kinds of difficulties. Sort of like how Eminem in 8 Mile basically argued that he was blacker than his black opponent because he grew up in a trailer home and had a broken family while his opponent went to private school, making him just a “halfway crook.” That, I thought, was problematic.
Suffice it to say that Brown’s race is part of the reason why he’s unfairly disliked in this town, and Mayberry being liked doesn’t change that fact.
I'm going back to my initial point.
Who doesn’t like Dom? We’ve had the conversation that some of the media are unknowing racist I didn’t see it but, I wasn’t looking for it. Since that thread I’ve kept my eyes open and still have yet to see what everyone is talking about. So lets for sake of argument say…. you’re every day fan may not like Dom because, the sports talk needs to draw up a stir to spark a conversation (and if that’s the case than it’s not worth arguing with him/her they are just getting their information from bad sources), I don’t think that’s racist that’s them striking a nerve with someone to get a discussion going. Now if it’s Wheels talking about how Chase isn’t aging well is that racist I don’t think so he’s giving his opinion.
I didn’t want to go here but, I’ve meet more than one person who perceived racism when people where just telling him / her they were being a piece of s***. Now this is just speaking on my experience but, those people who pull the race card every opportunity are the same ones who won’t associate with anyone outside of their race and, have been the most racist of them all.
"Learning to eat soup with a knife"
by h2o_34_35_44 on Feb 17, 2012 9:31 AM EST up reply actions
There has been a big backlash against Dom. There just has. Racism means not that a given fan overtly dislikes him because he’s black, but that some are susceptible to certain kinds of arguments that are, historically speaking, racially encoded.
The large backlash against Dom, could that have been because he was tagged the best thing since sliced bread. The #1 prospect in all of baseball. The starting RFer for the next 10 years. A sure fire for the hall of fame?
"Learning to eat soup with a knife"
by h2o_34_35_44 on Feb 17, 2012 9:39 AM EST up reply actions
Are you serious? Other than being the #1 prospect in baseball, none of the rest applies, except insofar as the same people leading the backlash over-hyped him.
This comment frankly reads like someone not trying to understand the issue.
I thought the topic was about how Dom isn’t getting a fair shake & why some people don’t like him. I don’t want to come off ignorant. Please break down the issue for me.
"Learning to eat soup with a knife"
by h2o_34_35_44 on Feb 17, 2012 9:54 AM EST up reply actions
From what I recall, you’ve said previously you’ve been away from the game for a while, yeah? Something about being overseas?
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Feb 17, 2012 9:55 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah I’m in Afghanistan on a combat adviser mission, I missed around 90% of the regular season. I’ve also stated that I get most of my sports information from here and websites such as this one. I still have friends back in the states that I have communication with. They draw most of their sports information from the sports radio (That’s where I got my previous argument from). I just don’t see it. I know I’m a bit more fanatical than some of my friends (some people here blow me out of the water) but, I don’t care if he’s black, white, yellow, hell he could be a Pakistani Pashtun that practices Sharia law (peacefully) if he’s helping the team win I don’t care.
I like to think of myself as the norm not the exception. What I’m arguing is the fact that people who dislike Dom don’t dislike him because he’s Black. The ones who dislike him are the sports radio fans who don’t look at stats sheets. If you brought up the WAR argument with them they would ask you what country we’re invading now.
"Learning to eat soup with a knife"
by h2o_34_35_44 on Feb 17, 2012 11:22 AM EST up reply actions
Here’s where I agree with you.
1. Not everyone who dislikes Dom does it because he’s black.
2. Hardly anyone dislikes Dom only because he’s black.
3. Not many people intend to think less of Dom because he’s black.
It isn’t so much that people dislike Dom’s race. It’s that people tend to be influenced by stereotypes. So if people hear someone say “that guy’s lazy” and he’s black, then they’ll be more willing to believe it, even though they don’t mean to be.
I see where you’re at. Drawing on people’s stereotypes is not what I was arguing against. Case in point… I’m white, I went into the MWR one day and, some black soldiers were looking for a 4th for Dominoes. Long short of the story they walked out embarrassed from loosing to a white guy.
"Learning to eat soup with a knife"
by h2o_34_35_44 on Feb 17, 2012 11:40 AM EST up reply actions
sorry, this sounds dismissive and sarcastic: “could that have been because he was tagged the best thing since sliced bread. The #1 prospect in all of baseball. The starting RFer for the next 10 years. A sure fire for the hall of fame?”
Wasn’t meant come off that way.
"Learning to eat soup with a knife"
by h2o_34_35_44 on Feb 17, 2012 11:23 AM EST up reply actions
For what it’s worth, I don’t really blame anyone in the media other than Angelo Cataldi and a few of his ilk. The local print journalists have been pretty fair to Brown overall. The unfairness you see directed at Brown is generally from talk radio callers and newspaper comments and places like that.
Reading that article looking for embedded bigotry I can see where someone could see it. Did you ever assume the possibility that the writer is just a dumbass? (A quality well known to be in ample supply over at Bleacherreport)
"Learning to eat soup with a knife"
by h2o_34_35_44 on Feb 17, 2012 11:31 AM EST up reply actions
I’m not saying one way or the other whether that specific guy is a racist. I know nothing about him. I was just trying to give you an example of a person who doesn’t like Dom since, above, you asked, “who doesn’t like Dom?” You’re right that he’s a dumbass though.
I do think that when seemingly half the Delaware Valley believes the same crap about Dom, it’s a pretty good sign that racial stereotypes play some role in that. There are a lot of dumbasses around, but normally you’d expect them to go at their dumbassery in different ways, not to all repeat the same exact talking points that line up almost perfectly with negative stereotypes.
Or… they are dumbasses because they are unable to form their own opinion about topics so they blindly follow anyone who has a few other people listening to them.
"Learning to eat soup with a knife"
by h2o_34_35_44 on Feb 17, 2012 11:53 AM EST up reply actions
All true. My point is that it is convoluted.
Racism itself is a structural thing, and it’s about power, or perceived power. Black people cannot be “racist” against whites. That makes no sense. (Though they can be personally bigoted, which is different. And they can hold “racist” opinions about blacks!) But the structure impacts in numerous, convoluted ways our biases and prejudices.
He started the season giving up 4 runs in 7 innings over 7 games for a 5.14 ERA. Than he had 3.2 IP over 4 games where he gave up 7 runs taking his ERA to 9.28. Unless you are counting the fact that he had an 18 ERA after 1 game, I don’t quite see the 13 exaggeration. Obviously that 4 game stretch was bad as it is what got him sent down.
I suspect a lot of his perception is tied into how people view the rule 5 draft. I like him and even have a soft spot for Mini-Mart because it feels like the Phillies got him for nothing in a triumph of scouting. The flip side is some people might feel that the Phillies are wasting a roster spot on another team’s cast-off and consequently might be predisposed to view the player negatively.
Herndons ERA is a perfect example of why its a meaningless statistic.
take out the one bad game he had in september, (3 runs on 3 HR’s… his sinker wasn’t sinking, and Charlie let him finish a meaningless game..) and its 2.89 on the season.
take away the April game where he didn’t record an out, but gave up 3 runs on a solo shot to Casey McGhee in a 9-0 game?
2.41.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
Is it just me, or does David Herndon look a lot like Chan Ho Park in the profile photo above?
The Good Phight, NotGraphs, Twitter, fun!
Well he does look like he’s diarrhea. So there’s that.
by philsandthrills on Feb 16, 2012 5:30 PM EST up reply actions
Interesting David Herndon tidbit...
And take from this what you will….
In 57 IP over 45 appearances last year he gave up a grand total of 21 earned runs.
13 of those Earned runs came off of 10 Hr’s.
Pre-all star break:
16 earned runs, 9 runs off of taters in 34 IP
Post all star break:
5 earned runs in 22 innings. 4 off of HR’s, and 3 of those were in one bad outing.
Thats crazy.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
He’s got more weird stats than most guys with much longer careers.
2010: High BABIP, Low HR/FB
2011: Low BABIP, High HR/FB
2012: ? BABIP, ? HR/FB
2013: Profit
The Good Phight, NotGraphs, Twitter, fun!
by FuquaManuel on Feb 16, 2012 11:47 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
May have something to do with his Minor League stats
I don’t what to make of why WIPers don’t like him so viscerally, but my own lack of faith stems from the several-hundred innings of minor league ineptitude, innings which portended no likelihood of success when the Phillies Rule V’d him. I would also point to a strangely high HR rate, likely unsustainable BABIP, and a still relatively low K rate.
Admittedly, his MLB numbers are a bit confusing , and his GB% is encouraging, which makes me believe he may indeed play a useful role. But I don’t believe there is much use in predictions at this point given that he so completely outperformed what should have been expected and that it is still difficult to make much sense of his still relatively small sample size
I see his BABIP last year (as in his good year)
as .266. If that were actually .313, well, his numbers last year wouldn’t look so palatable, and probably explains in part the high FIP (in addition to the 7 walk appearance).
I don’t think that will likely get better.
It was .266 last year. It was .380-something the year before. That averages out to a .313.
As I already said above, both of Herndon’s luck stats were out of whack in each of his first two years, but in opposite directions. In 2010, he had an unsustainably high BABIP and an unsustainably low HR/FB. In 2011, he had an unsustainably low BABIP and an unsustainably high HR/FB. His high FIP is entirely the result of his unsustainably high HR/FB, since FIP doesn’t take HR/FB into account. If you look at his xFIP and SIERA, like FM did in the post you’re commentin on, you’ll see that they were exactly what we described them as – slightly below the league average, which is more than fine for a front-of-the-bullpen reliever who makes no money, especially considering that he’s still fairly young and thus has a good chance to improve.
I don't think "entirely" means what you think it does.
That his FIP was substantially higher than his actual ERA last year is also, at least partially (and I’d say substantially) explained by his relatively low BABIP. That his xFIP is less substantially higher may be more fairly said to be “entirely” explained by the relatively high HR/FB ratio, at least in respect to his FIP (but that’s obvious, isn’t it?).
And thank you for explaining how averages work.
Now that that’s out of they way, David Herndon also has almost 400 minor league innings, all but the last 14 or so of which make me think he’s bad. Maybe he’s not, maybe he’s gotten better, but to analyze him independent of that is, um, limited.
Sheesh, look at the crabbypants here.
I note the inconsistency between (1) your insistence on only looking at his 2011 MLB stats in isolation instead of his entire MLB career, and (2) your insistence that his MiLB stats are super important. It almost seems as if you’re only looking at the stats that support your argument, and ignoring the stats that don’t.
The MiLB stats are important, of course, but they’re also three years old now. Guys in their 20s sometimes improve suddenly. The further back you go into the minor league archives, the more you have to take those stats with a grain of salt. Especially when you consider that he was a starting pitcher for most of his Angels career. The difference between starting and relieving is significant enough to render stats from one category as being almost irrelevant as predictors for the other category. I’m not comparing Herndon to Jonny Venters, but Venters was a pretty crappy starter when he was in the minors too. Herndon was a reliever for a year-and-a-half before the Phillies got him. He wasn’t good in 2009 (performance in 2008 unknown b/c I can’t find splits), but 1.5 years of three-year-old minor league data is a lot less meaningful than 2.0 years of the most recent data from MLB.
I was clearly talking about FIP-xFIP in my use of “entirely.” Who gives a shit about ERA? I haven’t mentioned it once in this entire conversation. Is it obvious that HR/FB makes the difference between FIP and xFIP? Perhaps, but since you were behaving as if it didn’t matter, I think I was within my rights to point it out to you.
Anyway, my point was that when you wrote this:
I would also point to a strangely high HR rate, likely unsustainable BABIP, and a still relatively low K rate.
It was misleading because (1) he only had an unsustainably low BABIP for one year (57 IP) and if you take the full MLB sample, his BABIP is actually a tad on the unsustainably high side; and (2) the “strangely high HR rate” is the result of a strangely high HR/FB, and not the result of a high FB rate, seeing as how he doesn’t have a high FB rate.
Care to respond to that, or do you just want to keep being pissy?
by taco pal on Feb 17, 2012 3:24 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
stupid question. If you even look at just at the .266 number is that really ‘unsustainably’ low? League reliever BABIP was .287 and the Phillies was .280 per fangraphs. .266 doesn’t seem that far off. Certainly not Antonio Bastardo territory. :) And it should be noted that his most likely competition for a roster spot, Michael Stutes, came in at .256.
As for MiLB stats, if they were great he wouldn’t have been available in the rule V in the first place so this just strikes me as a general bias against the rule V draft.
What question?
And yes. I am a Rule V bigot. Brilliant.
Fair point on BABIP.
To take another step back, it’s kind of silly to base one’s evaluation of a pitcher on his BABIP in the first place. BABIP is important because, in conjunction with other things, it helps us to see whether a pitcher’s ERA is misleading. But it’s a fundamental breakdown of logic to reason: “Hey this guy has a low BABIP, so that means he won’t be good.” A guy can have a misleadingly low ERA and still be good. For that matter, a guy can have an unsustainably high BABIP and still have a sustainable ERA.
All of a pitcher’s luck stats and peripheral stats are already digested and synthesized in his DIPS. That’s what DIPS are there for. Herndon’s DIPS are:
2010: 4.18 xFIP, 3.88 SIERA
2011: 4.13 xFIP, 3.92 SIERA
Career: 4.15 xFIP, 3.90 SIERA
That’s a bit below average, but they’re clearly within the “competent” range. His career FIP is higher, but FIP isn’t as good as xFIP or SIERA.
There were two arguments made here. The first was that Herndon’s MLB stats are unsustainable because his MiLB stats were bad. I think that’s a pretty tenuous argument, but it isn’t illogical per se.
The second argument was that Herndon’s MLB stats are unsustainable because of his BABIP and FB rate. That argument is illogical. BABIP and FB rate are baked into the cake of his DIPS. It makes no sense to pull out certain components of the DIPS and say “see, this guy won’t be good,” when the DIPS themselves say otherwise.
Responding in kind bro
“like FM did in the post you’re commentin on…” let’s not pretend you weren’t being a bit uppity.
But let’s not make this about your feelings.
My original post, and point, was that I believe his MiLB numbers may give some valuable insight to his MLB numbers, which are not addressed here. You may note the apt title I gave it.
My other points were misleading if you assume their context. But why would you assume their context in the manner in which they don’t make sense, instead of assuming the context in which they do make sense?
The above post implies DH got better between 2010 and 2011 largely due to a spike in his KRate. It made such implication 3 different times. I agree with the contention that if DH can in fact improve his K%, he has a far greater likelihood of helping. However, to my original point (again, note my apt title) this in my mind, is still very much in doubt based upon the large sample size of MiLB inning. Combined with the fact that despite the K% increase, he gave up a very high number of HRs while having an artificially low BABIP, he probably will not be such a great pitcher going forward.
You’re really getting off to a promising start here. I don’t think the readers need to be told which of us is truly being hypersensitive and is just posturing that he isn’t, so I’m comfortable leaving that determination to them. Are you?
My original post, and point, was that I believe his MiLB numbers may give some valuable insight to his MLB numbers, which are not addressed here. You may note the apt title I gave it.
Yes, this was one of the points you made in your original post. As I mentioned in my reply to pretzalz above, I disagree with that point because I think you’re putting way too much weight on stats that are old and were compiled mostly as a starter, but not because you’re being illogical on that point.
However, you also made a second point – that Herndon won’t be successful going forward because of his BABIP and HR%. I think that point is illogical and misleading, and not just wrong. BABIP is a luck stat, but HR% can also be a luck stat where (as here) it’s high or low because of HR/FB rather than FB%. But you’re simultaneously arguing that Herndon’s good BABIP isn’t sustainable while his bad HR% (which, p.s. incidentally, only happened in 2011, not 2010) is going to continue. You’re being inconsistent.
Combined with the fact that despite the K% increase, he gave up a very high number of HRs while having an artificially low BABIP, he probably will not be such a great pitcher going forward.
Case in point.
My other points were misleading if you assume their context. But why would you assume their context in the manner in which they don’t make sense, instead of assuming the context in which they do make sense?
You’ll have to explain in greater detail what “context” your points are not misleading in.
The above post implies DH got better between 2010 and 2011 largely due to a spike in his KRate. It made such implication 3 different times.
No it didn’t. Learn to read. FM mentions that Herndon raised his K rate from 2010 to 2011, but point out to me where FM says that Herndon improved overall from 2010 to 2011. You can’t because he doesn’t say that. What he says is that Herndon improved from April 2011 to the rest of 2011.
It’s certainly a good sign that Herndon K’d more batters last year than he did in 2010, but he actually didn’t improve his DIPS over 2010 because he also walked more batters at the same time. If he performs at either year’s level (low K/low BB vs. mod K/high BB) he’ll still be a competent pitcher because he’s been a competent pitcher for the last two years. The higher K rate creates hope that Herndon can improve beyond mere competence and actually become good. But even if he doesn’t, you don’t really have much of a basis for thinking he won’t be useful as a front-of-the-bullpen option.
It should be noted that the majority of those HR’s that cause the high HR/FB rate came in the first half of the season, before he went down and fixed his mechanical issues, and altered his pitch approach.
There’s no scientific way to determine if what I’m about to say is anything more than opinion, but it’s my oppinion that after he got back from AAA he worked out the “kinks” regarding the HR’s and flyballs.
Pure opinion, but I’m inclined to predict his HR/FB rate will be much closer to the mean this season.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
http://twitter.com/#!/brookob/status/170892474825449472/photo/1
Fashion is a form of ugliness so intolerable that we have to alter it every six months.
-Oscar Wilde
by VanceinmyPants on Feb 18, 2012 11:23 AM EST reply actions
damnit
http://twitter.com/#!/brookob/status/170892474825449472/photo/1
Fashion is a form of ugliness so intolerable that we have to alter it every six months.
-Oscar Wilde
by VanceinmyPants on Feb 18, 2012 11:23 AM EST up reply actions
The exclamation point after the pound sign makes that link unclickable.
http://twitter.com/brookob/status/170892474825449472/photo/1
Luxury rap, the Hermes of verses. Sophisticated ignorance, write my curses in cursive
by Eaglesadvocate on Feb 18, 2012 12:06 PM EST up reply actions
Oh that is spectacular.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Feb 18, 2012 2:26 PM EST up reply actions
A mediocre reliever at best (whose going to finish with a SIERA near ~4 and a FIP slightly over ~4) who primarily value is that he is relatively cheap through the end of next year ’13. Once he hits his 2nd year of arbitration in ’14 and his contract likely nears $1 or over it, he has little value.
as opposed to a mediocer reliever who we sign for 1.5 -2mm per year to put up the same type of numbers because hes a proven guy?
Chad Qualls in 2011
74 IP
43K’s
20BB
3.51 ERA
3.9 FIP
3.72 xFIP
3.55 SIERA
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
Qualls is a pretty good comp for Herndon in a way. Qualls was a bit better in 2011, but Qualls is 33 and likely going downhill, while Herndon is 26 and likely going uphill. Herndon at $1 mill in 2014 dollars (assuming that’s even an accurate estimate) is a pretty good bargain if a Qualls-like contract will be the alternative.
It makes me wonder whether they signed Qualls because:
1. They overvalue him
2. They had concerns about having to rely on the pig penners
3. They don’t have faith in Herndon/Stutes.
Im sure contreras and the veteran in the bullpen philosophy had a little to do with it, but when we signed him, my first thought was why did we just add $1mm in salary for an older nit necessarily better Herndon.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
They actually underpaid for Qualls relative to comparable deals. In a weaker year for bullpennery, he’d have gotten 2.5 to 3 guaranteed easily.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
Qualls got $1.15M and there were several other veterans relievers who signed who are arguably better/as good this offseason than Herndon who got less than $1.5M.
OK, let’s back up here. The assertion that was made was: “Once Herndon hits his 2nd year of arbitration in ’14 and his contract likely nears $1 or over it, he has little value.”
On one hand, that statement says nothing. Nearly all middle relievers have “little value” from a certain point of view. Since it would be uncharitable to assume that the statement was totally pointless, we can probably assume we’re talking about “little value relative to other middle relievers.” In other words, the contention that needs to be assessed is that Herndon will be an easy nontender candidate in 2014 because there will be so many other superior options on the market.
I don’t see how the facts support that. Now, obviously, if the Phillies have a surplus of good RP prospects coming out of the minors in 2014 (very possible), then they probably shouldn’t keep Herndon around unless he turns into something like a solid <3.50 ERA pitcher (not impossible). But that would be true regardless of how he measured up to the rest of the FA market. That is, that calculus would be driven not by Herndon’s lack of value as such, but by the even greater value presented by the prospects, a situation that would be specific to this organization and not a generalizable principle.
Setting the prospects aside, Herndon at a contract “nearing $1” million (I take it that means something like $900,000) would actually be a pretty good deal. I checked the list of FA relievers who signed contracts this offseason, and none of those contracts were better deals than that. Qualls’ deal actually may be the best of the bunch, along with Todd Coffey’s ($1.3 million). You also have some guys like Takashi Saito who got signed for cheap, but that was obviously because of major injury concerns.
Plus, all that assumes that Herndon won’t improve at all between 2011 and 2014. He’s 26 right now, so improvement is more likely than not.
It was in regard to middle relievers. Regardless of what his saber-related stats are, if Herndon does have an ERA closer to 3.50 (which would be a notable degree of improvement along with some luck), he will be making more than $1M in 2014. I would imagine that in the process he will also become a more integral part of the Phils’ bullpen used in more high leverage spots too. Then it becomes more interesting on whether or not they will be interested in come 2014 & beyond.
Frankly, I don’t think he really is going to improvement over what he has been the past 2 years or in the minors. That’s an xFIP that is going to be somewhere north of 4.00. Maybe even closer to 4.20. That screams marginal reliever.
You generally press pretty strongly on here for younger arms to get a chance in the bullpen yet why I am kind of mystified why you would advocate paying potentially moderate dollars for Herndon two years down the road based on what he has shown in his first 2 season in MLB.
He also isn’t in Qualls either because MLB GMs (right or wrong) are generally willing to take a flyer on a 1-year contract for a veteran reliever like Qualls who is clearly on the downside of his career but might give them a nice ‘bang for the buck’ over ~50 IP in lower leverage spots.
I think if you’ll re-read a little more closely the comment you just responded to, you’ll realize that I clearly did not “advocate paying potentially moderate dollars for Herndon” if there are younger arms available. Don’t straw man. In fact, I explicitly said the exact opposite. To repeat what I already explained, I think that Herndon will be expendable if the Phillies are fortunate enough to have young, cost-controlled options in place (which they very well may). But that does not mean that Herndon will have “little value” relative to the middle reliever market in the abstract. It means that the Phillies will be in the atypical situation of having many other guys who are even more valuable relative to the middle reliever market.
Herndon showed actual qualitative improvement during last season. He didn’t just get better results after returning from the minors, he went about getting them in better ways.
He doesn’t have to improve from his overall numbers to be a useful reliever, at MLB minimum. But it’s interesting how quick so many are to assume that it’s out of the question that he will build on those months and be a better pitcher.
yup, apparently till the bitter end.
That says a few things to me:
1. As soon as Joe Blanton shows he can pitch and someone makes a viable offer he’s gone.
2. No one has offered anything for Joe Blanton
3. The Phillies view Kyle Kendrick STRICTLY as a swing man/spot starter/long man in the pen.
4. If Joel Pinero shows ANYTHING this spring, he might just break camp as the 5th starter.
5. Don’t throw away that Oswalt Shersey just yet.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
I’m still clutching it with a death grip. :|
"I remember being three and I wanted to be a baseball player, that's all I ever really wanted to be. That and Spider Man." -Raul Ibanez
Ruben Amaro Jr. Delenda Est
by Jose and the Contrarians on Feb 18, 2012 4:04 PM EST up reply actions
Saw on mlbtraderumors too, I think from Olney. Seems like the hypothetical third team would’ve gotten the worst of this deal unless the Phils were chipping in money or prospects.
Following joes points, it seems like raj doesn’t like the idea of juggling the 5th spot in the rotation and felt burnett would’ve been more stable
by FanSince1993 on Feb 18, 2012 4:08 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I’m not sure what’s juggling. It’s Blanton’s if he’s healthy & Kendrick’s the #6 guy. You could sure do a lot worse than that pair in the back end of your rotation.
"Learning to eat soup with a knife"
by h2o_34_35_44 on Feb 19, 2012 12:25 AM EST up reply actions
15 minutes into Pitchers and Catchers 1st workout, and the Phils announce they’ve agreed to a contract extention for……
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/02/phillies-kendrick-agree-to-two-year-deal.html
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
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