Phils, Kendrick Sign Two-Year Deal
by dajafi on Feb 19, 2012 11:28 AM EST
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PrintRub your eyes if you want, but it's still going to be there: the Phillies will pay Kyle Kendrick $7.5 million to throw baseballs for them during the 2012 and 2013 seasons.
If one really, really wants to, it's possible to justify this deal. Kendrick's 2011 performance was pretty good: 8-6 record with a 3.22 ERA overall, including 5-2, 2.14 against the NL East. Kendrick switched between the rotation and bullpen without issue, pitching to a 3.14 ERA in his 15 starts and a 3.41 in his 19 relief appearances. He set a career-best with a 1.97 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Baseball-Reference suggests he was worth 1.2 Wins Over Replacement; if you figure 1 WAR was worth a bit less than $5 million last season, Kendrick probably delivered value in excess of twice his $2.4 million salary.
Problem is that none of this is likely to be repeated. Kendrick still can't strike people out; his 4.6 Ks per 9 innings was a bit above his previous career average, but still way below the level it generally takes to be successful. His strand rate was 76 percent, highest since his even more flukishly fortunate 2007 rookie season; his BABIP was .261, a career low. The 3.22 ERA looks great; the 4.55 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and 4.42 xFIP (Expected same) a good deal less so.
It's unlikely that this deal will be a season-killer for the Phillies. But if, like me, you'd rather see Joel Piniero get first crack at the innings Kendrick likely will snarf up in 2012 anyway, it's tough to see it as anything but wasteful. By and large, getting guys to hit line drives right at defenders is not a repeatable skill.
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Perhaps he showed up in the best shape of his life.
Luxury rap, the Hermes of verses. Sophisticated ignorance, write my curses in cursive
by Eaglesadvocate on Feb 19, 2012 11:35 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
As much as Kendrick frustrates me, and as much as I see Kendrick as a stagnant piece in that he’s probably never going to improve, there is something to be said for a guy who can be a spot starter, depth starter, long man or one inning guy if need be. Price may be a bit high but whatever I guess.
Ed Snider is a crotchety old fuck.
That is all.
This moves doesn’t make me angry… but it just seems silly… did we need to lock KK up?
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Feb 19, 2012 11:40 AM EST reply actions
I was going to wish everybody a happiest of Spring Training openings...
but then I saw this, which makes me a little less happy then “happiest.”
The only plausible reason I can see for this is that the FO has made major progress on a deal for Blanton. Has anyone heard anything in the last 24 hours about this?
Fare thee well, JM. In my book, you were the Greatest.
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=7890127&c_id=mlb
by Missing Jamie Moyer on Feb 19, 2012 12:25 PM EST reply actions
As much as I don’t want to see the FO trade Blanton, I think its eventually going to happen. No one is going to deal for him until he can show hes healthy, so whether that means before we break camp or sometime before the deadline remains to be seen.
That said, I’m not sure why people think that Blanton has anything to do with locking up kendrick, or why extending him means he’s the 5th starter. KK came into camp yesterday guarnateed to make 3.5 MM this season, as a spot starter/swing man insurance policy. he basically got a $250k raise this year, and a guarantee for the SAME MONEY next season. meaning no raise.
If anything, I think his trade value just got a lot better than Blantons. If you think about it, someone was gonna probably deal for Blanton and pay at most, half his salary for 1 year, meaning we get about 4mm in salary relief.
Now, potentially, someone can deal for KK, and get two years guaranteed for the same money.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
But they’d be getting a worse pitcher. So, you know, that evens out whatever the potential return might be.
Kendrick, at 3.75mm is not an attractive trade target, IMO.
I dunno. This kind of thinking makes sense from what we know as gospel round here — KK has low K rates, gets lucky, has an unsustainable ERA, etc, etc — but it’s not particularly fair to assume that it’s only the Phillies who value this kind of pitcher. Case in point, Joe Saunders — whose stats read basically like a Kendrick clone — got a one year deal from the D-Backs at six million. And that’s after turning down a 2/12 deal. A nearly identical starter at 2/3rds the price could, conceivably, be a trade chip.
This also sort of pertains to a point below, namely that this is indicative of the Phillies’ lack of SABR-mindedness as an organization. I wouldn’t quibble with that, but I would say that I’d be surprised if they’re radically different from many of the teams in the league. It’s not as if every front office outside of Philadelphia would put much, if any, stock in FIP, even if we here (and I’d suggest rightfully so) do. With that in mind, and along with Joecatz’ luxury tax figurin’s, I can see the logic here.
If anything, I think his trade value just got a lot better than Blantons.
This. And not just for ST. Even if Kendrick stinks it up, getting a starter for under $4M will seem a bargain in 2013 (with one more year of control!). Even if his ERA goes to 5.00. And while TGP might think that his K/BB or HR ratio isn’t worth it, I’m guessing there are 10 GMs who would not care. This will look really good in 2013, even if he stinks in 2012.
GMAT verbal section question, Philadelphia sports version.
In 2015, which one of the following will prove to be a better investment?
(a) Ilya Bryzgalov's contract (b) Ryan Howard's extension (c) Mike Vick's extension (d) Greek bonds from 2009 (e) Papelbon's bloat deal
I’m really not sure what Joe Blanton’s trade value is at this point. With all the “trade Blanton” talk of the last couple years combined with his injury issues, the other GM’s in baseball might think that Blanton is either not worth the risk or thinking they can get him for cheap since the presumption is the Phillies are looking to unload him anyway.
Sid Bream was out, Jeremy Giambi was safe, Pete Rose should be in the Hall, Walter O'Malley shouldn't, and the Expos should be in Montreal.
by Veni Vidi Vici on Feb 19, 2012 9:44 PM EST up reply actions
Note, in case there is confusion later, I was referring to KK’s tradeability.
GMAT verbal section question, Philadelphia sports version.
In 2015, which one of the following will prove to be a better investment?
(a) Ilya Bryzgalov's contract (b) Ryan Howard's extension (c) Mike Vick's extension (d) Greek bonds from 2009 (e) Papelbon's bloat deal
id rather take this than a 3 team deal for aj burnett
I hear you got quarterback problems i feel bad for you son...
i got 99 problems but vince aint one
by XxActionJacksonxX on Feb 19, 2012 12:32 PM EST reply actions
id rather take none but, you get the point
I hear you got quarterback problems i feel bad for you son...
i got 99 problems but vince aint one
by XxActionJacksonxX on Feb 19, 2012 12:32 PM EST up reply actions
I actually find this to be a pretty savvy and smart move.
1. His AAV only increases to 3.75mm for lux tax purposes.
2. he gets virtually no raise next season, AND is not arbitration eligible in 2013 which…
3. makes him appealing as a deadline trade target, should his depth not be needed
4. guarantees you don’t have to worry about factoring an additional 1.5-2mm in salary next year, and get nothing in return if you non tender…
5. allows you to have more cost certainty for Hamels.
But if, like me, you’d rather see Joel Piniero get first crack at the innings Kendrick likely will snarf up in 2012 anyway, it’s tough to see it as anything but wasteful.
I don’t see how this affects Pinero in any way. We were already guaranteeing Kendrick 3.5 this season, He only gets another $250k this year…. I don’t see kendrick as a 5th starter for us in any scenario. He’s a swing man, long reliever, spot starter, insurance policy.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
by Joecatz on Feb 19, 2012 12:59 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
This is a good point. Kendrick’s 2012 salary hasn’t changed, so this move has nothing to do with Pineiro. So while there are legitimate disagreements to be had about Kendrick’s 2012 deal, there’s no reason to rehash them now. We already had that debate a month ago. The only topic of debate now is 2013.
I would have non-tendered Kendrick. If his $3.75m cap hit—which is actually more than he would have counted against the cap this morning—pushes the Phils over the cap, that badly hurts them for 2013, which is when this really matters.
Also, assume he’s as hit-unlucky in 2012 as he was hit-lucky in 2011, and his ERA is more like 5.5 than 3.2. You’d non-tender him then, right? In that case, you’re paying $3.75m for… nothing.
If he’s above replacement level, it’s by a nose. That is not worth a nearly $4m investment, much less the opportunity cost and the added proximity to the cap.
Cost certainty is swell and all, but when you’re talking about a guy who’s comparable to Danys Baez, it doesn’t really matter.
Trade Deadline Target?
Is there really a significant demand at the trade deadline for marginal / 5th / spot starters? Doesn’t nearly every AAA squad in the league have at least one of these?
I don’t understand the appeal that Kendrick has to this FO. They are clearly one of the least Sabermetrically-inclined clubs, so maybe they really do think Kendrick is better than Blanton. That thought is disconcerting.
by The Howling Fantods on Feb 19, 2012 1:24 PM EST reply actions
I think the appeal is pretty clear—Kendrick doesn’t have an injury history and has a pretty well established performance level. Blanton is likely better, but only if he’s healthy. plus he’s 4 years older and coming off a basically lost season, which makes his contribution in 2012 somewhat uncertain. Kendrick doesn’t necessarily have to be a better true-talent pitcher than Blanton to be more valuable than Blanton.
by perfectdepth on Feb 19, 2012 3:16 PM EST up reply actions
They are clearly one of the least Sabermetrically-inclined clubs,
I still think about 8 or 10 other clubs are at least as clueless (look at their records). Will he be going to the Oakland A’s? No.
GMAT verbal section question, Philadelphia sports version.
In 2015, which one of the following will prove to be a better investment?
(a) Ilya Bryzgalov's contract (b) Ryan Howard's extension (c) Mike Vick's extension (d) Greek bonds from 2009 (e) Papelbon's bloat deal
"They are clearly one of the least Sabermetrically-inclined clubs"
Kendrick exists to confound sabermetricians everywhere.
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Feb 19, 2012 5:41 PM EST up reply actions
Except for those who measure Grit Above Replacement.
Sid Bream was out, Jeremy Giambi was safe, Pete Rose should be in the Hall, Walter O'Malley shouldn't, and the Expos should be in Montreal.
by Veni Vidi Vici on Feb 19, 2012 9:22 PM EST up reply actions
Can GAR be changed to...
Grit Over Replacement Norm?
GORN!
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Feb 19, 2012 10:46 PM EST up reply actions
I may not be able to define it, but I know gorn when I see it.
by Wet Luzinski on Feb 19, 2012 11:12 PM EST up reply actions
Please make sure to keep the “Norm” in that acronym. We will not have GOR on this board.
Bob.
by The Dark on Feb 20, 2012 9:03 AM EST via Android app up reply actions
To me, this is just another sign that the Phillies don’t care about money. I know that there has to be a limit at some point, but I think we keep seeing again and again that there isn’t with this franchise at this point in time. I mean, if there were a limit, you’d think they’d find that limit with a player like Kendrick, who is eminently replaceable. (And by that I don’t mean replacement level, but replaceable with the Phillies’ internal and free agent resources.) But, they’re giving him a lot of money, which must mean that they just don’t care about money.
I do tend to believe that the Phillies FO operates with a double standard for those guys they developed vs. the guys they didn’t, call it a loyalty premium, and we’ve seen a few examples. Combine the loyalty premium with the WS ring premium, and that’s a powerful incentive to open the wallet a little further.
Not a horrible deal, and indicative to me that RAJ is planning more pitching flexibility for 2013 as the Toddler Aces may not be ready or even materialize. I am disconcerted only in that so many of my own dollars over the past few years contributed, in a small way, by being part of a Moyer/Kendrick ticket plan.
by Wet Luzinski on Feb 19, 2012 5:07 PM EST up reply actions
"the WS ring premium"
Loyalty, or perhaps compromising photographs. Could Amaro be thinking that the 31 games Kendrick started in 2008 at an ERA+ of 80 put the Phillies over the top? He was an innings eating machine!
I have to think that the flexibility and FIPness Kendrick showed in the second half had something to do with this. Perhaps the internal reporting on KK noted some adjustment or change in approach to account for this? While he’ll never be Randy Johnson, his SO/BB ratio has improved every year since it bottomed out in 2008, maxing at 1.97 last year. That improvement streak includes years 08 to 09, 09 to 10, and 10 to 11. That’s three straight years in the right direction, which beats the hell out of the alternative.
He’s 27 and will turn 28 this August, so maybe he’s not going to bloom anymore, but he’s got lots of miles left and no injuries. Bruce Chen just got 2 years at 9MM from the Royals, and he’s a million years old with a career SO/BB of 1.98 and a ERA+ of 97, though he posted 101 and 108 in ’10 and ’11. Would you rather have Chen or Kendrick (“neither” is not an option in my hypothetical)?
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Feb 19, 2012 5:40 PM EST up reply actions
Bruce Chen just got 2 years at 9MM from the Royals, and he’s a million years old with a career SO/BB of 1.98 and a ERA+ of 97, though he posted 101 and 108 in ’10 and ’11.
This comment validates my comments above. There are some clubs that would bite on a Kendrick trade next year. The time to determine whether to keep him was the non-tender point this year. Now, adding a second year actually makes him a commodity to some clubs, even if we at TGP think this is insane.
GMAT verbal section question, Philadelphia sports version.
In 2015, which one of the following will prove to be a better investment?
(a) Ilya Bryzgalov's contract (b) Ryan Howard's extension (c) Mike Vick's extension (d) Greek bonds from 2009 (e) Papelbon's bloat deal
Another way to look at this:
Let’s assume that for budgetary purposes the Phils want to allocate the same amount of dollars to pitchers in 2013 as they have for 2012 and extend hamels.
By guaranteeing KK you can theoretically slot him in blantons spot, take blantons money and allocate it to hamels (23mm AAV) and slot a young arm in kendricks spot in the pen.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
This. Kendrick as 5th starter in a Halladay/Lee/Hamels/Worley rotation is perfectly fine. 6th starters can come from the Piniero types or maybe even someone at AAA in 2012.
I am actually much more annoyed at the Qualls signing, especially if Contreras is healthy.
GMAT verbal section question, Philadelphia sports version.
In 2015, which one of the following will prove to be a better investment?
(a) Ilya Bryzgalov's contract (b) Ryan Howard's extension (c) Mike Vick's extension (d) Greek bonds from 2009 (e) Papelbon's bloat deal
That’s a beautiful Lancastrian turn of phrase there, English.
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Feb 19, 2012 10:47 PM EST up reply actions
None of us can really know what the Phillies’ subjective thought process is.
No doubt it could be totally irrational, but it could also be rational. I refer back to my article from last October.
A possible rational thought process is this:
1. The Phillies are betting that the surge in Kendrick’s performance that accompanied his change in pitch selection is real.
2. If the improvement is real, then $3.5 mill or so is pretty reasonable for a sixth starter. It’s normal for sixth starters to get 10-12 starts or so in a given season. For that reason, long men are actually more valuable than all other members of a team’s bullpen except for, probably, closers. Simply put, they pitch more innings than the other guys, and because of the starts, not all of those innings are low-leverage.
3. The Phillies may have an opening in their starting rotation in 2013. If Kendrick’s improvement is real, then having him be a median-quality starter for $3.5 mill in 2013 will be a nice bargain.
Of course, the improvement might not be real. But this is not a downside-only bet. There’s both upside and downside. We can debate the likelihood that Future KK will be superior to Past KK, but if you accept the Phillies’ factual premises, then the rationale behind the bet is sound.
I think there are definitely good arguments to be made for the proposition that Kendrick won’t be better in the future – I do not take the position that Kendrick is certain (or even more likely than not) to be a ~3.7 xFIP pitcher going forward. But I think those arguments need to be more nuanced than “Kendrick’s career numbers are X, therefore his future numbers will be X.” If Kendrick’s late-season surge in strikeouts (without a corresponding increase in walks) had simply occurred at random, then I would be a lot more skeptical than I am that something real had changed. But since the K% surge coincided with a change in pitch selection, I think the probability of a real improvement is something that cannot be ruled out so easily.
by taco pal on Feb 19, 2012 4:32 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Okay, if nothing else this is a typically impressive tp LogicDome argument. I did notice that Fangraphs had Kendrick’s fastball velocity a decent bit higher last season than at any other time in his career; that plus the cutter and change could represent a case that he is and will be a better pitcher in his late 20s than he was earlier.
"...fastball velocity a decent bit higher..."
ROIDS!
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Feb 19, 2012 6:21 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Thanks. And I should admit that I’m as haunted as any saber-friendly Phillies fan by the possibility that the Phillies would have given Kendrick this contract even if the uptick in his peripherals at the end of 2011 had never happened. I do think this is a defensible decision on its merits, but as far as whether they made this decision for defensible reasons or whether they blundered into it for the wrong reasons, I have no idea.
He did have an ERA+ of 120 last year, but he’s been bouncing between the 120’s area and 80’s for the last five years.
07-118
08-80
09-125
10-86
11-120
09 was only a sample size of 112 BF, though.
by phillies0100 on Feb 19, 2012 9:36 PM EST up reply actions
I hope that some day I’ll understand RAJ’s mentality for putting together a team. In the three plus years he’s gone from absolutely needing to lock up the players on the roster now regardless of the cost to absolutely needing to acquire whomever is the current hot commodity on the Free Agent/Trade market regardless of the prospects or draft picks that need to be given up to absolutely needing to acquire and/or lock up a bunch of meh players that don’t really move the needle too far one way or the other but are seen as low risk low return moves
Sid Bream was out, Jeremy Giambi was safe, Pete Rose should be in the Hall, Walter O'Malley shouldn't, and the Expos should be in Montreal.
Ruben follows his gut a lot, just like Charlie does.
Charlie can be every bit as smug as Ruben is.
Come to think of it, they’re really a perfect match for each other.
And we wondered, if Amaro was Wez, who The Humungus might be? Cholly!
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Feb 19, 2012 10:44 PM EST up reply actions
I'll admit, up front, that I'm nitpicking
regardless of the prospects or draft picks that need to be given up
But you can’t trade Draft Picks and Rubes refused to trade Brown on a number of occasions.
I meant the draft picks you lose when signing Type A free agents, but yeah good point on Dom.
Sid Bream was out, Jeremy Giambi was safe, Pete Rose should be in the Hall, Walter O'Malley shouldn't, and the Expos should be in Montreal.
by Veni Vidi Vici on Feb 21, 2012 12:22 AM EST up reply actions
just browsing facebook, it’s these kind of statements that annoy the hell out of me…
“REAL phillies fans would know and appreciate what KK did for us last year”
“Tired if these kendrick haters…..that boy got some nasty movement on his pitches”
“Again, I’ll say to you Kendrick haters, 43-30 and a 4.41 ERA are decent numbers, and anyone who thinks he shouldn’t be here is probably someone who wasn’t watching much baseball before 2008. A lot of fans in this city are dumbshits who don’t deserve to be fans of our teams.”
" I guarantee 90% of Kendrick haters have never set foot in the Vet. Fans since 08?"
" U haters are a bunch of fucjing morons a 5th starter with a 3.3 era that ur paying 4 mil a year, and ur not happy"
I just love that last comment.
Fashion is a form of ugliness so intolerable that we have to alter it every six months.
-Oscar Wilde
by VanceinmyPants on Feb 20, 2012 1:36 AM EST up reply actions
Draft pick FTW
Yankees have an agreement with Raul Ibanez, pending a physical.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) February 20, 2012
Ibanez deal worth $1.1 million in base salary, plus incentives.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) February 20, 2012
So glad to see these power rankings are back in 2012. And the Phillies start out tied for first.
Kenny Williams and Ruben Amaro, Jr. aren’t crazy. They are World Series-winning general managers. They have families. People like them. They aren’t crazy.
The thing about them, though, is that they’re both crazy.
Ruben Amaro is not a World Series winning GM but whatever.
Ed Snider is a crotchety old fuck.
That is all.
Best of the write-ups:
22. Marlins
They were a great mystery team as late as November, but that’s all over. They aren’t going to surprise anyone anymore. They approached this offseason like Ziggy Sobotka after he was paid in Season 2 of The Wire. From Wikipedia:
Ziggy purchased a pet duck and bought it a diamond necklace (again showing that he is making money).The 2012 Marlins: Basically a diamond necklace on a pet duck.
by Cormican on Feb 20, 2012 1:52 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
And just because:
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Feb 20, 2012 10:47 AM EST reply actions 5 recs
I’m probably in the minority of those who actually like this deal. At this point, I think Kendrick provides an inexpensive 5th starter / swingman who can be shuffled between the bullpen and rotation without a drop in performance. As far as his performance, I consider Kendrick to be a league average pitcher with potential to be an above average pitchers if his K-rate and pitch selection remain the same.
"Too much good fortune can make you smug and unaware. Happiness should be like an oasis, the greener for the desert that surrounds it." - Rachel Field
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