2012 Phillies Player Preview: CLIFF LEE
by dajafi on Feb 26, 2012 12:34 PM EST
in 2012 Player Previews
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Player pages: Baseball-Reference, Fangraphs
Considering that he was THE story of the previous winter, I guess it’s only right that Cliff Lee embodied the 2011 Phillies season. Like the team as a whole, he turned in a brilliant performance over 162 games that sadly went overshadowed by a bitter playoff disappointment. The kicker, of course, is that Lee’s inability to hold an early 4-0 lead in Game Two of the Division Series was a big reason why the Phils didn’t cap their 102-win regular season with a deeper push into the playoffs. Lee surrendered all five runs over six-plus innings in the Phils’ 5-4 loss. He didn’t pitch again in 2011.
The game itself was representative of Lee’s few "bad" outings last season. A strike-throwing machine who comes right at batters, Lee can be beaten by lineups that feature hitters with pop who excel at putting the ball in play; the 2011 Cardinals circa October were pretty much the dictionary definition of that sort of lineup. Luck factored in as well: I’ve seen his walk of Lance Berkman, on successive borderline pitches, to lead off the three-run fourth that got St. Louis back in the game again and again in my head this winter.
Mostly, though, it was Lee who inflicted the damage in 2011. The lefty posted career bests with a 2.40 ERA, 232.2 innings pitched and 238 strikeouts to go with his sparkling 17-8 record, and finished third behind Clayton Kershaw and teammate Roy Halladay in National League Cy Young Award balloting. Sitting at 4-5 with a 3.94 ERA through the end of May, Lee eviscerated the league the rest of the way with a 13-3 record and 1.59 ERA. Twice he claimed NL Pitcher of the Month honors, going 5-0 with a 0.21 ERA in June (and finishing the month with three straight shutouts) and 5-0, 0.45 in August.
The big weapon Lee has added as he’s moved into his 30s is the cutter. Even in his 2008 AL Cy Young year with the Indians, he threw it only 6 percent of the time; by last year, the percentage had jumped up to 22. Lee used his fastball considerably less in 2011 than in any previous season of his career, throwing it just 53.5 percent of the time; but his average velocity on it was the highest of his career.
There’s reason to think Lee was slightly lucky in 2011: he stranded over 81 percent of runners, and his BABIP was a bit below his career norm. Then again, Lee and the Phillies probably would take a bit less luck from April through September in exchange for better fortune come playoff time.
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This is nitpicking since Cliff is an elite pitcher, but often times he will have the tendency to try and through “perfect” games (not risk walks and hits) instead of just pitching to contact sometimes in later inning situations; basically getting the hitter out by any means necessary instead of trying to be sexy with it.
had the same feeling...
…but, you sir, are in fact nitpicking
he’s a stud, but I bite my nails too when he’s catching a bit too much of the plate.
The problem with Lee’s approach is that if he loses even a bit of his fineness, he’s gonna get hit really hard.
For that reason as he ages, I could see him cutting the volume of strikes he throws just a bit.
But one could say that as pitching skill sets go, control would be the one that would stick with you the longest, as opposed to velocity
That’s true. One of the reasons why Carlton washed out when he did was because he never perfected enough off-speed stuff to stay competitive once he lost the ability to throw heat. I don’t see Cliff turning into Jamie Moyer 2.0, as ol’ No. 50 was basically the outlier’s outlier, but any lefty control artist can have a nice long career in this league as long as he recognizes how to cope with aging.
by ThinMountainAir on Feb 27, 2012 10:29 AM EST up reply actions
Carlton lost more than just the ability to throw heat. Meanwhile, he was 40 in his last productive year (1984, in which he had clearly declined quite a bit from his late 1980-1983 peak), which is plenty old enough—if Lee lasts anywhere close to 40, with anything like his current effectiveness, I’m sure he’ll take it. Carlton was never a control artist, either. And by the end, his walk rates sky-rocketed.
Carlton routinely threw into at 92-93 even as he approached 40. You act like he lost his velocity in his early/mid-30s.
I took “washed out when he did” to clearly refer to post-1984. But, like, to wash out at 41 is hardly worrisome.
Yeah, you’re right. If anything, his problem was that he continued to throw hard for so long, and so didn’t feel like he had to change anything. Of course, developing off-speed pitches is only a good idea if you don’t have a high walk rate.
by ThinMountainAir on Feb 27, 2012 12:55 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t see Cliff turning into Jamie Moyer 2.0, as ol’ No. 50 was basically the outlier’s outlier…
SHOULD OF KEPT.
I don’t see ANYONE turning into Moyer 2.0. Will be interesting to see if Moyer makes the Rockies roster.
"We are the Borg. Resistance is futile."
I sure hope he does.
Also, since he’s no longer “retired” as a Phillie, does this mean I can now order a new Moyer jersey?
If he retired now, wouldn’t that mean he retired as a Rockie? Unless he does one of those exploding contract things, of course. But if he wanted to do that, I’d think he’d do it as a Mariner.
he was ridiculously close to 9 CG shutouts…. could even argue three pitches in three games (v. Atlanta, the first game he homered, when he served up a meatball to Dan Uggla; Atlanta won in extras; that game against Florida, probably the one you’re thinking of, when he gave up the HR with one strike to go; but also the game against Cincinnati, when he loaded the bases with two outs, Madson came in to get the last one)
He’s a hot and cold pitcher. Those types of guys are a liability in post season play.
"Learning to eat soup with a knife"
by h2o_34_35_44 on Feb 27, 2012 12:35 AM EST up reply actions
And that, my friends, is a dead joke.
"Church, if I die, I want you to have my orange juice."
by TheOrangeCone on Feb 27, 2012 12:43 AM EST up reply actions
There’s reason to think Lee was slightly lucky in 2011: he stranded over 81 percent of runners, and his BABIP was a bit below his career norm.
I’m not too concerned about either. His BABIP against wasn’t too far off his career avg of .295 (although 2010 and 2011 have helped bring his career avg down a bit). While an 81% strand rate is quite above league average and his own career average (73%), strand rate is something pitchers have some control over. In his breakout years of ‘08 and ’09 he stranded 76% and 78% of runners before suffering terrible luck in 2010 (68%). Last season he posted the highest K% and highest GB% of his career, two factors that greatly help pitchers strand runners. 81% is probably unsustainable, but I think at this point in his career, Lee’s talent level is probably closer to an 80% LOB than 70%.
(This isn’t meant to disagree at all with Dajafi’s post. Just furthering the discussion.)
Has anybody really looked into why Lee’s K% was so much higher last year? Dajafi mentioned pitch selection and increased velocity, maybe that’s the whole answer. Are the strikeouts something we can expect to continue?
Cliff Lee vs. a pitcher last year:
64 PA. 59 AB 5 hits. 1 double. 1 run. 1 BB 27K’s for a .085/.100/.102 line the other 4 PA were sacrifice bunts.
If you really wanna see dominance, check out this http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=leecl02&year=&t=p#lineu::none
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
nice
and yet, taking pitchers out, his K% is still 24%, which is up from the previous years high of 22%
Also, is that K rate vs. pitchers higher than it is for other elite pitchers? If so, he should get at least some credit for that too.
k/bb
K/BB%
Halladay was 20%
Hamels was 25%
Kershaw was 8%
Lee 27K’s in 59 AB
Halladay 20K’s in 53 AB
Hamels 25K’s in 57 AB
Kershaw 24K in 49 AB
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
From the Jason Stark-esque stats category:
If my math is correct, Halladay, Lee and Hamels have each walked exactly one pitcher in their careers.
…and they all apparently did it last year, which isn’t so surprising for Lee and Halladay, but it sort of is for Hamels.
I remember Halladay walked Josh Johnson. Don’t remember the other two.
"Church, if I die, I want you to have my orange juice."
by TheOrangeCone on Feb 27, 2012 1:24 PM EST up reply actions
I remember that too because on the broadcast they made a big deal out of it being the first time Halladay ever walked a pitcher. I’m thinking I was listening the radio, but I’m not sure.
Is it that big a deal? Each have only spent a few seasons in the NL. Agreed on Hamels, that’s impressive.
In 2010 vs. non pitchers: (his best AL K season: ) 184 K’s in 811 PA
1-2 in lineup (non P) 208 PA 32K
3-6 in lineup (non P) 386 PA 82K
7-9 in lineup (non P) 249 PA 71K
2011 vs. NON PITCHERS: 211 K’s in 856 PA
1-2 in lineup (non P) 233 PA 42K
3-6 in lineup (NON P) 416 PA 117K
7-9 in lineup (non P) 207 PA 52K
The reall interesting deeper look:
VS opponents #3 hitter
2010 : .320/ .327/ .454 with 2BB 17K’s in 109 PA 31 hits, 9 for extra bases.
2011: 248 /.266/ .390 line 2BB 32K in 109 PA 26 base hits, only 9 for extra bases.
Thats pretty much the difference.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
All in all, opponents batted ball profiles didn’t change much from Lee’s previous years averages. Batters took more pitches in the zone, chased about the same % of balls, and swung at slightly lower % of pitches total. Batters made a lower % of contact on both pitches inside and outside the strikezone causing his overall swstrk% to rise slightly to above league average. (info taken from fangraphs pitchfx data)
The process (more called strikes, less contact) explains the results (more strikeouts) but doesn’t give us a reason for the actual process. Probably some combination of facing pitchers, declining offenses in general, weaker overall offenses in the NL and altered pitch selection/lucky pitch sequencing.
His pitch selection would be something interesting to look at separately. It seems an increased use of his 2-seamer helped create the career high GB% (mostly at the expense of allowing flyballs, although his line-drive rate was a bit high also) but his hr/fb ratio rose higher than it had been since ‘07 (admittedly he was on a three-year run of Cainesque hr/fb rates). His babip was right about average so maybe there isn’t really an angle here after all.
by FanSince1993 on Feb 27, 2012 5:37 PM EST up reply actions
I never listen to this guy, so I can’t tell if this is serious or not…
When Lee pitches this season, I’ll still be rooting just as hard as I ever did because time is running out on this fabulous era, and one championship isn’t enough. But I won’t be rooting for Lee himself. I don’t root for players who come up small in big moments and then shrug it off.
No, he prefers to root for the players who “come up small in big moments” and then show ACCOUNTABILITY.
Also, if I remember correctly, Lee came up pretty damn big in 2009. What was he, 2-0?
How exactly does one “show accountability”? I don’t mean hypothetically; certainly Lee could have fasted all winter and then held a press conference on the first day of spring training in which he tearfully apologized for ruing our parade plans.
I mean, is there an example in real life of someone being appropriately contrite to this guy’s satifaction?
by topherstarr on Feb 28, 2012 12:11 PM EST up reply actions
Were Lee contrite, Butthead would have labeled him soft. Were he too contrite, he would be labeled as unable to handle the spotlight. There was literally no winning for Lee on this one.
Exactly. The entire point of the exercise is to take whatever facts are available and use them to advance a predetermined goal. Fairness, consistency, and sincerity of belief are all beside the point.
Now, the listeners who follow Cataldi aren’t that cynical. They actually believe these things. It’s just that they’re really dumb and can’t figure out that their basket of views, taken as a whole, doesn’t really make any sense.
Well, let’s start with the fact that that whole passage is a lie because Cataldi doesn’t “root” for the Phillies to begin with. He’s a cynical operator whose goal is to find ways to get people riled up so that they’ll pay more attention to him. Part of that act involves playing the role of Philadelphia Superfan, but it’s just an act.
So basically “Angelo Cataldi” is a character played by a guy with the same name?
by topherstarr on Feb 28, 2012 12:12 PM EST up reply actions
Correct.
In a sense, that doesn’t make him any different from a great many other radio personalities (whether in sports or elsewhere). What sets him apart is the underlying vileness of his project.
For instance, Howard Eskin (who I don’t like very much either) tries to push people’s buttons by offending them. He plays the role of an a-hole to make people angry at him. That’s annoying but ultimately he doesn’t cause that much damage because not that many people agree with him. The whole point of the act is to get people to disagree with him.
Cataldi’s project is to push people’s buttons by making them angry with other people. To do that, he puts himself in the role of being the fans’ champion or spokesman, so as to allow himself to say “Philadelphia, this person is your enemy, you will hate him.” This is much more immoral than what Eskin does, for obvious reasons.
by taco pal on Feb 28, 2012 12:18 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
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