Oswalt Return to Philadelphia Possible?
"According to Fox Sports’ Jon Paul Morosi, Roy Oswalt‘s price tag is falling yet his preferred suitors remain strapped for cash and may not be able to sign the righty. It is no secret the World Series-winning Cardinals and runner-up Rangers are Oswalt’s top choice due to their proximity to his Mississippi home, yet Morosi reports that the Red Sox, Reds, and, yes, the Phillies have remained in contact with Oswalt as contract demands decrease."
4 months ago
David S. Cohen
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It depends on just how low his price tag is falling for me.
Editor at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
Assuming you can get him for something around $8.5ish + incentives, would you rather lil Roy over Blanton?
And especially (though not only) because we’d be selling low on Blanton. The pitching market is obviously depressed at the moment, and he’s coming off his injury, so we’d likely have to send cash to get someone to take him, even though Blanton’s on-field performance in 2012 is likely to be worth more than his salary. So, in addition to paying $8.5 million + incentives for Oswalt, you’d also be paying $X million to find a taker for Blanton, meaning you’re spending several million dollars for a pretty modest upgrade.
Who said anything about sending money elsewhere? If that were necessary then the cost to acquire Roy is more than the hypothetical $8.5.
I just asked if you could get him at basically the came cost as Blanton, would you rather have Oswalt over him. More clearly put, the question is if you could swap them right now—Oswalt to the Phils roster at Blanton’s payroll hit and Blanton to the FA market—would you do that?
You want the question answered in a world without consequences. That’s how Amaro runs the teams. It’s now how free agent acquisitions can be considered. Taco Pal answered your question by responding to the consequences of such a move. Why would you criticize that approach?
Who wants to answer your stupid question if we’re not allowed to discuss the direct ramifications to the team this blog supports? You say Oswalt or Blanton is merely a hypothetical, but we already have one of them. If we get the other one, it directly affects the first one. It’s not exactly a hypothetical when one of the “either or” guys is already signed. Why does this take so much explaining?
First, let me clear something up. I didn’t criticize TP’s approach, I said that he answered a question I didn’t pose, because my thinking was that if you had to eat salary in a trade then the costs of acquiring Oswalt go up. If he answered it in that way because I worded the question poorly that’s my mistake, and so I tried to rectify that by clarifying what I was looking for in my response to him.
Second, it apparently takes a bit of explaining because you still don’t understand what a hypothetical question is. They’re not necessarily meant to be real or implementable. The purpose of a hypothetical question is to remove all the variables which will complicate a potential situation to drill down on the heart of whatever is being looked at, in this case the talent level of Oswalt v. Blanton.
I was trying to ascertain TP’s opinion on whether, ceteris paribus, he’d rather have Oswalt or Blanton, which is why I threw out the cost of $8.5mm – basically the same amount as Blanton’s cap hit for this season. But, yes, we’re all aware that in the real world all things aren’t equal and there are externalities associated with all of these moves. Including all those externalities, however, is not instructive if I’m trying to ascertain if TP’d rather have Joe Blanton on the Phillies roster for the 2012 season at ~$8.5mm or Roy Oswalt for the 2012 season at basically the same salary.
Lindros, my first comment (8:51 PM PST) was my direct answer to your question. My second comment (8:53 PM PST) was to give some additional thoughts (“especially though not only”). Once I answer the question, I’m allowed to elaborate on related issues, no?
I wouldn’t want Oswalt for 8.5 + incentives, because I think Oswalt is unlikely to be significantly better than Blanton, who’s already under contract for a flat 8.5. (I was operating under the assumption that the incentives would be rather substantial, not just 100K here 100K there.)
If I could have Oswalt for 8.5 flat (without incentives), then I would do that, sure.
Fair ‘nuff. I suppose I read your 2nd post as more of a continuation of your first post rather than reading each on it’s own merits. My bad. That being said, you guys (you and liverp) should stop asking about what you’re allowed to post or elaborate on. I’m not the BOLG Po-lice. Do as you wish. I’ll deal.
My initial assumption was that my post would be read as 8.5mm + loss of Blanton at no cost + insignificant incentives. Maybe like $500k for 200 IP/ Sub 3.2 ERA/Cy Young/Silver Slugger/etc. or some such nonsense. Basically a straight up swap of JB for RO.
That situation is really the question, “do you think Oswalt is better than Blanton,” but for some reason I decided to go about asking that question in the most opaque way possible.
The “allowed” stuff was just a little cheekiness on my part. We tend to get cheeky around here at times. Just part of the ambience.
Maybe that’s why I missed it; I never liked English humor.
Or maybe that was just Russel Brand. The Monty Python crew seem like fine chaps, even if lumberjacks amongst them put on women’s clothing and hang around in bars.
Perhaps, just perhaps, I was showing a bit of cheek myself, as my paragraph addressing it contained references to ZWR and The Wire slipped in. But you know what they say if you have to explain it….
Could God throw a change-up so well that even he couldn’t hit it?
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Feb 5, 2012 3:25 PM EST up reply actions
It’s a weird situation. Roy Oswalt is really, really good at baseball. I don’t know why no one is willing to give him a contract; he’d still be the #1 pitcher on many staffs in baseball, including some decent ones. For any other team, I’d think it insane to not bring him in on a one-year deal for under $8M. But for the Phillies? I mean, he’s a lot better than Joe Blanton, but enough to be worth paying for? Not really.
I mean, if two of the aces go out for the season somehow, we’ll be wishing Oswalt was around. But otherwise, what does he really buy? Helps them win a division they’re already very likely to win? Offers an improvement over Worley for 1-2 games in the playoffs? Is that even worth more than a couple million?
I mean, he’s a lot better than Joe Blanton, but enough to be worth paying for?
Yes? In a playoff series I’d MUCH rather have Roy pitch that 4th game than Blanton or Worley. He’s just in a different league than either of them, and that’s exactly where each game matters the most. IMO, if you can get them for close to the same salary I think you have to make that move and spend the rest of the year trying to flip Blanton.
But, like I said, I have doubts that this is a serious report.
I actually don’t agree that he’s a lot better than Blanton. At this stage of their respective careers, Oswalt’s only a little better.
Weighted xFIP- averages, last three seasons
Oswalt: 91
Blanton: 95
Oswalt is more than three years older. Injury concerns are a wash.
He also plays left field. He’s the total package.
"I remember being three and I wanted to be a baseball player, that's all I ever really wanted to be. That and Spider Man." -Raul Ibanez
Ruben Amaro Jr. Delenda Est
by Jose and the Contrarians on Feb 5, 2012 11:22 AM EST up reply actions
He can also turn a house or a hill into left field with his adult sized live action Tonka. He’s the total package with more total.
He kills men by the hundreds, and if he were here he’d consume the English with fireballs from his eyes and bolts of lightning from his arse.
Fixed
Hekillsstrikes out men by the hundreds, and if he were here he’d consume theEnglishMets, Nationals, Braves &, Marlins withfireballsFastballs from his eyes andbolts of lightningCurve-balls from his arse.
"Learning to eat soup with a knife"
Oswalt has shown an ability throughout his career to depress his HR/FB rate (Career rate of 8.8% and only 2 times in his 11 yr career has he been > league average), whereas Blanton has not. Further, Blanton’s lowest HR/FB rates came when he was pitching in the HR-friendly confines of the Coliseum and he’s had a relatively poor HR/FB rate ever since he’s left Oakland, while Houston was middle of the pack or slightly more prone to allowing HRs during his tenure, although it varied significantly season to season.
In short, a stat which normalizes HR rates is not going to be an accurate predictor of future results with regard to these particular pitchers IMO.
I guess I just don’t believe that Oswalt has an ability to depress his HR/FB, at least not anywhere near that degree. Fangraphs did some research on this last year and found that yes, HR/FB rate correlates with certain things that a pitcher has control over, but only within a relatively narrow range. I think the normalized HR/FB assumption is probably closer to the mark than either Oswalt’s or Blanton’s career stats are.
From 2008 to 2010 his hr/FB rate was 10.5%
He had an abnormally low HR/FB rate in his 23 starts last season, but as I’ve noted, his k/9 dropped drastically, and i would venture to guess, that thats more a result of
1) less innings and starts
2) less of a reliance on his go to pitch
than a true merit. Basically, its an anomaly of luck.
Blantons HR/FB rate between 08-10 coincidentally was 11.5
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
By the numbers:
Oswalt career: 8.8
2007 6.7
2008 12.7
2009 9.7
2010 9.1
2011 6.3
No rhyme, no reason.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
Maybe a little rhyme, a little reason? Average is ~10.6, right? Well, take both pitchers numbers and see if you can see a general pattern.
Year – Oswalt – Blanton
2007 – 6.6 – 6.5 (In Oakland)
2008 – 12.7 – 9.4 (1/2 Oakland, 1/2 Philly)
2009 – 9.7 – 13.0
2010 – 9.1 – 12.2
2011 – 6.3 – 13.9
In the 5 seasons since 2007 Oswalt’s had one season in which he’s surrendered HR at an above average rate. Blanton’s had 3 such seasons with the two low HR/FB seasons comingin a pitcher friendly stadium.
Maybe that’s just noise, but then maybe it’s not.
I was basically trying to show that Oswalts “career” Hr/FB rate is skewed, and that its , IMO a pretty useless statistic.
An interesting note about Joe Blanton… He ALWAYS gave up HR’s, even in Oakland. However, in 61 appearances at the coliseum, he only surrendered multiple HR’s in the same game 5 times.
In 42 Appearances at CBP, he’s had 10 multiple HR games…
Begfore being traded to Philly, he’d never given up 3 HR’s in a game ever. He’s done it 4 times since the trade…
But here’s the real interesting statistic… Basically 50/50 between rad starts and home starts since the trade, he’s given up 30 HR’s at the Bank, and 32 on the road. basically an even split…
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
If you believe the off season leaks...
Tigers offered Oswalt a one yr, ten million deal. The problem is Oswalt has turned several would be suitors down, and seems to be focusing on teams that have no pressing need for him, such as the Rangers and Cardinals.g
Cincinnati’s only an hour farther from Oswalt’s house than Arlington TX is. I don’t get his thought process.
Roy Oswalt can throw a fastball. Roy Oswalt cannot read a map.
"I remember being three and I wanted to be a baseball player, that's all I ever really wanted to be. That and Spider Man." -Raul Ibanez
Ruben Amaro Jr. Delenda Est
by Jose and the Contrarians on Feb 5, 2012 11:23 AM EST up reply actions
I know the Incaviglia rule prohibits sign-and-trade for newly-drafted players, but does it also apply to free agents? Is there a chance we could sign him and flip him or Blanton for prospects? Throw in Willis or Qualls to sweeten the pot?
Fare thee well, JM. In my book, you were the Greatest.
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=7890127&c_id=mlb
by Missing Jamie Moyer on Feb 5, 2012 12:47 AM EST reply actions
Payroll and prospects. Operating on the assumption that we don’t want to go over the luxury tax threshold, we would have to dump one of them before the season begins (I think?), and if we could find a team interested in one of them, it may represent an opportunity to bolster the farm system, since we wouldn’t be giving up any prospects to sign Oswalt.
Fare thee well, JM. In my book, you were the Greatest.
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=7890127&c_id=mlb
by Missing Jamie Moyer on Feb 5, 2012 8:49 AM EST up reply actions
#firstworldpitchingproblems
Don’t get me wrong. I’d love to have Oswalt back and keep the four aces together. But considering all the other signings we’ve made to put players in positions where some minor league guys could potentially fill the spots without issue (i.e. the bullpen), I’d be hard pressed to say bringing Oswalt back would be a beneficial move for the team from a financial standpoint.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
to me this is a non starter regarding a starter.
A healthy Oswalt at this stage of his career is < than a healthy Blanton. At BEST, (and Dubee has said this himself) Oswalt is good for 22-25 starts MAX., meaning you need to keep Kendrick around, so Blanton becomes the trade bait if you want to stay under the lux tax.
Oswalt only makes sense if the phillies were willing to keep him AND Blanton, use Worley as the swing man, you pencil Brown in as your LF or LH platoon and you are ok with a young pen. (meaning you don’t sign Kendrick, Qualls, Nix and Willis and their roughly 7MM in salary….)
That’s the ONLY WAY Oswalt makes sense. and it’s 180 degrees in the other direction of where they’ve gone this off season.
So it becomes Oswalt or Blanton, and for me,. its a no brainer.
I’d rather save the money for the deadline.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
At BEST, (and Dubee has said this himself) Oswalt is good for 22-25 starts MAX
Really? He’s one year removed from a 33-start season, 211 IP season.
thats a LONG YEAR removed.
his k/9 in 2010 was 8.21 in 2011 it dipped to 6.02. xFIP went from 3.44 to 3.95, velocity on his fastball dipped significantly…. and his back issues are degenerate, meaning they aren’t going to get better.
The point Dubee was making was not that he couldn’t conceivably start 30-34 games, but based on health, etc… he figures him to be a 25 start guy.
OR, he gives you 5 IP per start over 32 games, vs 6-7 over 25.
No thanks.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
I think it’s premature to think he’s a washed up shell of his former self based on one season in which he attempted to play through a severe injury, while discounting Blanton’s injury of unknown origin which was treated solely with rest and rehab. I’m a bit concerned about idiopathic injuries which come and go for no apparent reason.
My reasoning in all of this hullabaloo is that at this point in their careers I think Oswalt is still significantly better than Blanton and is likely to have the better of their upcoming seasons.
Rec’d
"I remember being three and I wanted to be a baseball player, that's all I ever really wanted to be. That and Spider Man." -Raul Ibanez
Ruben Amaro Jr. Delenda Est
by Jose and the Contrarians on Feb 5, 2012 11:24 AM EST up reply actions
but Oswalt can just cover up the sign with pictures of his bulldozer to make it say “do it for her”
All things considered, I'd rather be in Philadelphia
by Veni Vidi Vici on Feb 5, 2012 11:30 PM EST up reply actions
haha
[ insert wizard of oz reference ]
But what’s with the crap all over the image? The artist’s signature is plain as day.
I wonder if part of this is Oswalt being ready to retire as well. If he’s thinking he’ll pick his last team instead of settling for the next offer that comes along, he might decide to pack it in rather than “settle.” Didn’t he hint at retiring a number of times already?
That makes sense. It’s also quite possible that he’s saying to himself that if someone is only willing to pay him, say, 6-7mm that he’d just as soon keep in shape, and wait for the inevitable late may phone call after someone, somewhere goes down, and get 6mm then.
Especially considering his back issues.
"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP
maybe he’ll pull a Roger Clemens and skip ST and wait on a team to bring him in mid season? It might not be the worst idea considering his injuries.
All things considered, I'd rather be in Philadelphia
by Veni Vidi Vici on Feb 5, 2012 10:32 PM EST up reply actions
I know there’s been a lot of talk about comparing Oswalt to Blanton, but shouldn’t we be comparing Oswalt to Worley, since that’s who Roy would be knocking out of the rotation?
All things considered, I'd rather be in Philadelphia
I think the idea is that signing Oswalt would mean you’d have to get rid of Blanton for budgetary reasons (esp. luxury tax).
yeah I guess that’s true, in that case it probably wouldn’t make sense to bring in Oswalt. With how little pitchers are getting in the FA market right now I can’t imagine getting much of anything for Blanton in a trade, especially since there’s the perspective that Blanton’s contract is too big
All things considered, I'd rather be in Philadelphia
by Veni Vidi Vici on Feb 5, 2012 11:26 PM EST up reply actions
Naturally, Amaro said there is no room for Oswalt
Not that it’s really surprising, but I linked it because I wanted to share this comment, which made me laugh:
The Phils need to sign him. He was the only guy on the team last year who could bunt. Plus a lot of the Phillies fans have his t-shirts already. It’s the same reason the Thome signing was so popular. It allowed those t-shirts and jerseys to be relevant again.
— AreaMan
I assume it was intended to be a joke…
It’s Philly.com, so I doubt it. Although I do feel like I’ve seen that guy post before, and some of them may have been jokes.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Feb 8, 2012 2:40 PM EST up reply actions
Sure, he may be a felon, but that just shows he does whatever takes to get what he wants. We need a guy like that in the outfield, not some loser fake-5-tool prospect bust who just expects everything to be handed to him and doesn’t care about the game.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Feb 9, 2012 12:26 AM EST up reply actions
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