If Ryan Howard, why not Mark Teixeira
I was reading a lot of the things RAJ has been saying lately about Ryan Howard and Cole Hamels and contracts and what not. In the comments of all these articles, the conversation generally shifts to how Ryan Howard isn't as good as his contract would indicate, and generally devolves into how Ryan Howard isn't actually that good for a first baseman. While I don't necessarily agree or disagree with all that I find it odd that he has become such a lightning rod for that type of criticism. I understand that it mainly stems from the amount of money he is about to be paid. Money like that should reflect a certain set of skills and talents, and in the current market, Ryan Howard doesn't possess them when compared to other first baseman. His value is derived almost entirely in his power now and reputation. His walk rates are fine, but his average pulls down his overall OBP (still above average for all players, but nothing special for first baseman). He doesn't run the bases well, and has never stolen more than 1 base in a year save for 2009 (8). His defense is average at the very best and pretty bad if you were to consult the numbers and ask most folks. His power is still good, but not nearly what is used to be and is looking like it is still in decline. His last three years slugging percentages are: .571, .505, and last year's .488. His ISOs generally follow that trend except his 2010 was .229 and his 2011 was slightly higher (.235) a far cry from his average season of .285 or his peak of .346. He hits a decent amount of homeruns and drives in a metric TON of runs every year. Because he does those things, and because he received the contract he did, it has caused a rift within the Philly fanbase as well as the general MLB fanbase. Most SABR friendly people would say that he is vastly overrated and it's easy to see. He is getting old, he is declining, and he hasn't been one of the 5 best first basemen (let alone player) in the majors yet he is about to be paid like one. Others would say he is the pre-eminent power hitter of our generation (patent pending) and a run producer so it's ok to pay him like that. The point of this little essay is not to determine Howard's value, or his ratedness (whether over, under, or just right), but to discuss the nature of this hot button issue (It's February after the Super Bowl, what else am I to do?). Harballtalk has put out quite a few articles as of late mentioning the Phillies or Amaro or both or neither and the comments sections invariably revert to a dissection of Ryan Howard and how he isn't worth the money.
Example links:
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/01/31/ruben-amaro-continues-to-overvalue-ryan-howard/
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/01/29/ruben-amaro-is-just-fine-with-ryan-howards-contract/
This got me thinking.
Isn't there another well paid first baseman who is in a similar spot to Howard right now? Allow me to lay out some numbers to make it easier to visualize:
Player A
2010 .256/.365/.481 .367 wOBA 126 wRC+
2011 .248/.341/.494 .361 wOBA 124 wRC+
Avg .252/.353/.488 .364 wOBA 125 wRC+
Player B
2010 .276/.353/.505 .367 wOBA 126 wRC+
2011 .253/.346/.488 .354 wOBA 123 wRC+
Avg .265/.350/.497 .361 wOBA 125 wRC+
Player A and Player B are virtually identical hitters. There really isn't much difference between the two as laid out in the triple slash stats as well as the advanced ones. A .364 wOBA vs. a .361 wOBA is negligible and the wRC+ numbers are identical over the 2 year average (obviously rounded up for player B by .5 RC). Both are first baseman. Both were signed to large contracts. Both have 5 years left on said contracts. Player A is Mark Teixeira and Player B is the man himself, Ryan Howard. Teixeira has 5 years and 112.5 million left on his contract, Howard has, obviously, 5 years and 125 million left on his contract. Now, I concede to the fact that Teixeira is a superior defender. I grant that to him 100%, but you won't find people arguing that if RyHo were a good defender he would justify the contract. People are up in arms about his hitting (and rightfully so to a degree). But no one that I have heard, is complaining about the remaining 112.5 million left on Teixeira's deal. The difference between the two is 2.5 mil a year. So I guess what I'm asking (and don't worry, I'm not actually looking for an answer, maybe just points of discussion/your perception of the situation) isn't why all the Howard hate, but rather, why no hate for Teixeira? What makes Howard such a polarizing figure and not Tex? I mean he plays in NY for chrissakes and no one is really talking about it.
I've bandied this idea to some friends and what generally comes back is the nature of the New York Yankees. They have such a multitude of large sum contracts that Teixeira is probably just lost in the shuffle (Thank you A.J. Burnett).
Another possible reason is that I am completely wrong and there are plenty of people out there who are outraged by the Teixeira deal, I just don't hear them. This may be true, but, at my own peril, I listen to the major sports talk radio shows in the greater NY area (where I live) every morning and I can't recall this being an issue (again, thanks A.J. Burnett).
Finally, the reason may be that Teixeira is simply closer in value to reaching his salary each year (due mostly to his defensive contributions)and it's simply not worth making a big deal out of. Again, I'm not trying to determine their relative value (Fangraphs does that better than I could), but the perception of their value relative to the fans. So when Mark Teixeira is worth 3.2 fWAR in 2010 and 4.2 fWAR in 2011, while Howard was worth 1.4 and 1.6 respectively with almost identical offensive numbers, I understand where the difference in actual value comes from.
I have other thoughts on possible reason but I'd like to hear from the mouths of babes, and also from you guys.
So after all that, what do you think? Am I crazy? Stupid? Both? Neither? Annoying? All of the above?
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Interesting comparison.
I think you’re right that Teixeira gets more or less lost in the mix of all of New York’s out-sized salaries, and that you’re also right that the perception is that he comes closer to being worth his salary, at least so far. Certainly fWAR tells us that is the case.
I do think, though, that people do say that Howard’s defense and baserunning are among the problems making him not worth the money. If he were Keith Hernandez in the field and Chase Utley on the bases, he might just be worth it. Thpugh it’s true that it’s his offense that had made him more of a figure of fun, given his high-profile post-season failures the last three seasons. (Everyone seems to think it’s just no problem whatever to strike Howard out, which is just unfair, even given all of his flaws.)
On the other hand, looking at Teixeira’s numbers more closely, compared to Howard’s, it’s actually a mystery to me that the one grades out at 4.2 WAR in 2012, the other 1.6. Their offense is, as you note, about the same. The playing time is about the same. Howard’s defense and baserunning are both clearly worse (especially the latter; his defense wasn’t so bad—in fact, only in 2010 could it be said that UZR rated him truly poor in the field). But is the difference really two-and-a-half wins? Isn’t 10 runs roughly equal to a win? Let’s see (I’m actually looking at this as I compose the post….)
In 2011, Howard was rated -4.8 on defense, and -9 baserunning. Teixeira was +8.6 defense, -1.5 on the bases. That adds up to 20.9 runs in Teixeira’s favor. So, with the slight advantage in playing time for Teixeira, and the extremely slight advantage on offense, I can see where the 4.2 to 1.6 advantage comes in.
The question, going forward, I suppose, is how much of Howard’s defensive & baserunning problems from the last two years can be attributed to his problems with his feet. If he can come back truly healthy, and hold his own on offense (or even bounce back a little, not out of the question), then his deal’s going to be less bad.
That, and a lot of the Howard rage comes from the fact that Howard’s extension was done two years before FA, whereas Tex’s was a FA deal.
by philsandthrills on Feb 6, 2012 8:16 PM EST up reply actions
lower aav, younger when signed, first year of contract was actually pretty good (you only included the most recent two years), has been better than howard probably every year except one,
and yeah not signed two years ahead of time, and not currently injured.
Listen, Howard is the worst 1b contract right now in baseball. No one else is close. he’s not the worst 1b, just the most overpaid.
Listen, Howard is the worst 1b contract right now in baseball. No one else is close.
Right now, maybe. In a few years, no chance.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Feb 7, 2012 2:18 PM EST up reply actions
texiera also benefits from his stadium, which is worse than cbp. so…
I hear you got quarterback problems i feel bad for you son...
i got 99 problems but vince aint one
by XxActionJacksonxX on Feb 26, 2012 12:49 PM EST reply actions

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