FanPost

2012 Phillies Mock Draft - UPDATED!

Editor's Note: Promoted from FanPosts. Help these guys out if you can! - WholeCamels


Hey Phillies fans. My name is Mike, and I am the mock scouting director for the Phils in the annual mock draft at minorleagueball.com, John Sickles' SB Nation site. I posted a link to the discussions at minorleagueball.com in the fanshot section, but I am not sure how regularly people check those. As Phillies fans, I would like to get your input on the mock draft and the type of prospects you would like to see drafted.

The Phillies pick at 40, 54, 77, 95, and 125 through round three. In the first draft discussion, found here, we discussed the type of player the Phillies front office has drafted over the last four years. Here were the results over the first 3 rounds:

  • 7 HS position players
  • 3 HS pitchers
  • 2 College position players
  • 3 College pitchers

Over the last four years, they have picked a HS player with each of their first choices, 3 position players and one pitcher. Because of this tendency, I think it is safe to assume that pick 40 should be used on a prep player, probably a position player. Given the limits of the new CBA, the Phillies have only $4,916,900 to spend in the first ten rounds. Given that number, we can't go too crazy if a player falls to 40 with big demands.

I offered a list of prospective candidates for pick 40, but I would like to offer a new list after updating my personal rankings. The top ten high school position players to target at pick 40 (the number is my personal rank):

26. Lewis Brinson, OF, Coral Springs HS (FL)
27. Trey Williams, 3B, Valencia HS (CA)
34. Rio Ruiz, 3B, Bishop Amat HS (CA)
35. Nick Williams, OF, Galveston Ball HS (TX)
41. Jesse Winker, OF, Olympia HS (FL)
43. Tanner Rahier, SS, Palm Desert HS (CA)
48. Carson Kelly, 3B, Westview HS (OR)
49. Corey Seager, SS, Northwest Cabarrus HS (NC)
55. Clint Coulter, C, Union HS (WA)
58. C.J. Hinojosa, SS, Klein Collins HS (TX)

Kelly, Seager, Rahier, and Brinson have been climbing up draft rankings, so it is possible that all four will be gone by pick 40. That would leave Trey (video) and Nick Williams (video), Rio Ruiz (video), and Jesse Winker (video) as the most likely to still be available. Coulter and Hinojosa could potentially be available at pick 54.

In the second discussion at minorleagueball, here, we discussed who to pick at 54. I was originally thinking an arm, but the comments leaned towards a bat, either high school or college. Here are the players who could be available at pick 54:

45. Adam Brett Walker, OF, Jacksonville University
46. Jake Barrett, RHP, Arizona St
47. Branden Kline, RHP, Virginia
48. Carson Kelly, 3B, Westview HS (OR)
49. Corey Seager, SS, Northwest Cabarrus HS (NC)
50. Nolan Sanburn, RHP, University of Arkansas
51. Clate Schmidt, RHP, Allatoona HS (GA)
52. James Ramsey, OF, Florida St
53. Nick Travieso, RHP, Archbishop McCarthy HS (FL)
54. Cody Poteet, RHP, San Diego Christian HS (CA)

So here's my questions to Phillies fans here at the Good Phight:

  • Out of these four choices, who would you pick? You can answer the poll below.
  • Looking at their tendencies, and the five picks we have this year, I think 2 prep bats, 1 prep arm, 1 college arm, and 1 college bat is what we should aim for. Do you agree or disagree with this?
  • Also, the Phillies next pick is pick 54. Would you like to go for a bat or an arm, high school or college? Who, out of the ten listed above, do you think is the best pick at 54? Or do you have someone else in mind?

__________________________________________________________________________________


Phillies MOD #1: here; MOD #2: here; The Good Phight Post: here.

Alright, so between discussions here at a The Good Phight, it looks like we have a pretty good list of candidates for pick 40, focusing on HS position players. My current top ten for this pick:

28. Trey Williams, 3B, Valencia HS (CA)
32. Rio Ruiz, 3B, Bishop Amat HS (CA)
37. Nick Williams, OF, Galveston Ball HS (TX)
41. Jesse Winker, OF, Olympia HS (FL)
43. Tanner Rahier, SS, Palm Desert HS (CA)
48. Corey Seager, SS, Northwest Cabarrus HS (NC)
49. Carson Kelly, 3B, Westview HS (OR)
56. Clint Coulter, C, Union HS (WA)
58. Jesmuel Valentin Diaz, SS, Puerto Rico Baseball Academy (PR)
59. C.J. Hinojosa, SS, Klein Collins HS (TX)

As a reminder, the Philles picks in first three rounds, with BA's recently released list of slot values:

Pick 40: $1,291,300; 5% over = $1,355,865
Pick 54: $940,200; 5% over = $987,210
Pick 77: $659,800; 5% over = $692,790
Pick 95: $500,000; 5% over = $525,000
Pick 125: $374,400; 5% over = $393,120

By pick 77, signability becomes an issue to keep in mind. With five picks, and the proportion of draft picks the Phillies have picked in the last four years in the first three rounds, I think we should pick 1 college pitcher, 1 college bat, 1 high school arm, and 1 more high school bat after pick 40. So, I am going to share, from my current rankings, the top ten who could be available at picks 54, 77, 95, and 125. Knowing the parameters of 1 college arm, 1 college bat, 1 prep arm, and 1 prep bat, and the slot limitations, please post below who you would pick with each pick. I know this is a lot of work, but one week out, I want to make sure we have a good idea what direction to go in the draft.

Pick 54 top ten:

45. Adam Brett Walker, OF, Jacksonville University
46. Jake Barrett, RHP, Arizona St
47. Branden Kline, RHP, Virginia
48. Corey Seager, SS, Northwest Cabarrus HS (NC)
49. Carson Kelly, 3B, Westview HS (OR)
50. Clate Schmidt, RHP, Allatoona HS (GA)
51. James Ramsey, OF, Florida St
52. Nick Travieso, RHP, Archbishop McCarthy HS (FL)
53. Nolan Sanburn, RHP, University of Arkansas
54. Cody Poteet, RHP, San Diego Christian HS (CA)

Pick 77 top ten:

68. Tom Murphy, C, Buffalo
69. Pat Light, RHP, Monmouth
70. Brandon Thomas, OF, Georgia Tech
71. Keon Barnum, 1B, King HS (FL)
72. Alex Wood, LHP, Georgia
73. Jose Orlando Berrios, RHP, Juan XXII HS (PR)
74. Peter O'Brien, C, Miami
75. Kieran Lovegrove, RHP, Mission Viejo HS (CA)
76. Lex Rutledge, LHP, Samford
77. Jameis Winston, OF, Hueytown HS (AL)

Pick 95 top ten:

86. Daniel Robertson, SS, Upland HS (CA)
87. Alex Bregman, SS, Albuquerque Academy (NM)
88. J.T. Chargois, RHP, Rice
89. Austin Maddox, RHP, Florida
90. Christian Walker, 1B, South Carolina
91. Mitch Nay, OF, Hamilton HS (AZ)
92. Carson Fulmer, RHP, All Saints Academy (FL)
93. Tony Renda, 2B, California
94. Kyle Hansen, RHP, St. John's
95. Josh Conway, RHP, Coastal Carolina

Pick 125 top ten:

116. Kevin Plawecki, C, Purdue University
117. Austin Fairchild, LHP, St. Thomas (TX)
118. Christian Jones, LHP, Oregon
119. Josh Henderson, OF, Home Schooled (VA)
120. Mitch Brown, RHP, Century HS (MN)
121. Skye Bolt, OF, Holy Innocents Episcopal HS (GA)
122. Matt Reynolds, 3B, Arkansas
123. Fernelys Sanchez, OF, George Washington HS (NY)
124. Edwin Diaz, RHP, Caguas Military Academy (PR)
125. Hoby Milner, LHP, Texas

Here is my ideal draft, given these rankings, and assuming other players who I have ranked higher don't drop down to us:

Pick 40: Trey Williams (video); back-up: Rio Ruiz (video) - HS Bat

Pick 54: James Ramsey (video); back-up: Adam Brett Walker (video) - College Bat

Pick 77: Jose Orlando Berrios (video); back-up: Kieran Lovegrove (video) - HS Arm

Pick 95: Kyle Hansen (video); back-up: Josh Conway (video) - College Arm

Pick 125: Fernelys Sanchez (video); back-up: Josh Henderson (video) - HS Bat

What do you think of this? How would you pick 2 HS Bats, 1 HS Arm, 1 College Arm, 1 College Bat with these five picks?

Thanks for you help, Phillies fans! Remember to join the draft discussions at minorleagueball as well.

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