Phillies Stat Notes -- July 13, 2012

Rects_mediumItems after the jump:
- Draft success since 2000 (redux)
- Phils batters vs. projections
- Phils Runs Created by Position vs. 2011
- Phillies stats vs. 2011, and vs. the Rockies
- NL Standings and team stats
- Milestones: Rollins, Hamels, Papelbon, and Citizens Bank Park

Draft Success Since 2000
(repeated and expanded somewhat from the previous stat notes)

Given the way this season has gone so far, some fans are expressing dissatisfaction with how the Phillies have drafted in recent years, even when accounting for the trades that heavily weakened the farm system.

The table below shows how many players from each team's drafts since 2000 have reached the majors (and gotten some minimal playing time -- 30+ innings or 100+ at bats). It also shows the number of players who have become more or less regulars, with 300 or more innings, or 1,000+ at bats (the cutoffs are arbitrary and may need adjusting to be more meaningful, and any suggestions there are welcome; also, all stats are through 2011).

The Phillies don't look good on this list, but that may be just a much a function of drafting philosophy (e.g. raw, "toolsy" high ceiling high schoolers, vs. more polished but lower ceiling college players, to over simplify). The list is as much about how quickly prospects can make it to the majors as the ultimate value of those prospects.

Position Players
Since 2000 the Phillies have drafted 3 players who have now batted at least 1,000 times in the majors: Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Michael Bourn. That "3" ranks 22nd in the majors. Widening the search, they've drafted another 5 who who have had at least 100 at bats -- Carlos Rivera, Jason Jaramillo, Lou Marson, Jason Donald, and Domonic Brown. The total of 8 position players ranks 28th (and the at bats by all draftees rank 20th).

Pitchers
As for pitchers, they've drafted 5 who have already pitched 300 or more innings: Taylor Buchholtz, Gavin Floyd, Cole Hamels, Kyle Kendrick, and J.A. Happ. In addition, they've drafted 8 others who have pitched at least 30: Scott Mathieson, Brad Ziegler, Matt Maloney, Josh Outman, Mike Zagurski, Kyle Drabek, Vance Worley, and Mike Stutes. That total of 13 pitchers ranks 21st, and the 5 with 300+ is a respectable number, ranking 12th.

Summary
1. The total of 21 players who have gotten some minimal playing time (30+ IP, 100+ AB) is tied for last in the majors.
2. Perhaps more importantly, the number of Phillies draftees who have made some impact (8) ranks 19th.

Again, I think that's interesting, and speaks to draft philosophy, but I want to emphasize that it's too early to judge these drafts.

Draftf_medium

Draftgr_medium

If the Phillies' low rank here is due to drafting less polished players, you would think that if you only look at the older drafts they should have relatively more players reaching the majors by now. And that is born out -- the graph below shows the cumulative totals of Phillies draftees since the 2000 draft reaching the majors (100+ ABs or 30+ IP), compared to the average of the 30 clubs. The Phillies were below average all along, but the gap has widened with the more recent drafts:

Drafcuml_medium

Source: The Baseball Cube

Phillies Hitters vs. Projections

Phillies hitters' OPS as compared to their 2009-11 averages, and to where they were expected to be by the various projection systems.

Obviously some are over and some are under, but overall the Phillies have slightly outperformed their OPS projections thus far.

Vproj_medium

Phillies Hitters vs. 2011

The totals below are runs created by position, using the formula originally developed by Bill James.

Runs Created are essentially the same as last year. However last year's actual runs scored were 16 lower than the projection (per 87 games) due primarily to the timeliness of hits. This year their actual runs scored are again lower than the RC formula would project, but by 31 runs.

Chooch (and a bit of Schneider and Kratz) have created the same number of runs so far as Phillies catchers created in all of 2011. The infield (35 fewer runs), no surprise, has been a black hole, offsetting all of the gains at catcher and then some. The outfield has been essentially the same as last year, down 4 runs. And Jim Thome's impact is very visible at DH.

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Phillies Team Stats vs. 2011 and vs. Colorado

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NL Standings and Team Stats

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Milestones

Jimmy Rollins

- His next double (20th) will tie Mike Schmidt for 2nd on the Phillies list at 408. Ed Delahanty is first, with 442, but Rollins should overtake him sometime in 2013.

- He needs two more HRs (10 total) to also tie Willie Puddin' Head Jones for 12th on the Phillies list.

Cole Hamels
- Hamels' start on Sunday 7/15 (18th of the year) will tie him with Dick Ruthven and Tully Sparks (1897-1910) for 9th on the Phillies list.

Jonathan Papelbon
- His next save (19th) will tie him with Sparky Lyle for 34th All-time at 238.

Citizens Bank Park
- The July 7th game against Atlanta marked the 3-year anniversary of consecutive sellouts at CBP. The streak now stands at 248 regular season games (264 with postseason).

For reference:
- MLB All-time leaders: Hitting and Pitching
- Phillies All-time leaders: Hitting and Pitching

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