FanPost

reality check, start the selling

As of right now the phils have lost 11-1 in New York City against the rising Mets. This game is what the Phillies are this year, horrible. I've read all of the positive and negative articles about the 2012 Phils. This would be my assessment. On paper it had potential, Rollins-Victorino-Pence-Ruiz-Mayberry-Polanco-Galvis-Nix/Wigginton- Plus Starting Staff. I thought before the season J-Roll would be around .250-.260 BA 15HR 50-60RBI 20 SB. The BA is about right, but the HR and RBI counts will be off due to his infield pop-ups and lack of patience.(anyone surprised?) Victorino I pegged to be at .270-.290 BA 15HR 40-50 RBI 30 SB. Considering this is his walk year he want to dial in a bit more to cash in. He has done the opposite. Horrible rally killer, with solid defense. Also victim of infield pop-ups with terrible discipline. Should be every team's 7 or 8 hitter or 9 if AL team. Pence: .300 30 HR 80-100 RBI 15 SB. As soon as the line up is full strenght I fully expect his production to rise to meet the expectation. Ruiz, one word: WOW! I figured him to be at .270-.280 BA 10HR 45 RBI. Ruiz has been consistant the last two years with his offensive output, but this year is his career year. He has CARRIED this team so far this year. The team would have already sold players off if not for RUIZ. Mayberry, disappointment? No. Everyone expected a Werth-like breakout year from our public bachelor. John had a 50-50 shot of breaking out. I figured he end up back as a fourth outfielder or traded so I didn't do predictions for him. Polanco is on par with what most could have guessed. .280-.300 BA 5-8 HR 30-40 RBI. We knew he would spend time on the DL this year and he has, but Polly will not wear red pinstripes next year. Freddy was a huge question mark going into this year. The Phils knew they had lock-down defense with Galvis but what offense would he contribute? I suppose any would be the icing. The injury and the 50-game suspension were not in the team's plan. (Why players still get caught with PEDs is beyond me and is a different post for another day.) I guessed the band-aid of Nix-Wigginton-Mayberry would hold down the fort until #6 came back. Here is the problem with that. They are not everyday players. They never were and plus the almost daily changing of their position does not help with continuity. One bright spot would be Pierre. What he lacks with defense was negated by the offensive output. Now the shut-down starting staff. They were given the task to carry the team until our hometown heros came back. So far only Hamels has held his own. The bullpen was relying on Qualls/Contreras/Paps. In fact only Cole and Paps have done their job. This season was doomed from the start. To think a division title was not only possible, but inevitable is laughable. Every team in the NL East is gunning for the Phils and so far every team in the division is having their way with us. It feels like the teams is back to pre-Manual Era. Now to my trade deadline opinions. This may hurt but trade Cole. To who? The Rangers. They have a piece the Phils need desperately. Mike Olt. He has nothing left to prove in the minors and is being blocked by Beltre. A power hitting 3B is what the Phils have not had since Rolen, or Michael Jack. A haul of Olt and one or two somewhat promising minor leaguers is acceptable. The baby Aces are on the way, plus Tyler Cloyd has stepped up. The team will be OK. Also Halladay and Lee are figured to bounce back. I don't think the team will get much for Shanf so maybe this down year of his will help at the negotiaing table for Amaro. Who would take is place? If the team tries to move Cliff they will find takers, but Amaro will eat too much of the salary to make it happen. I bet ownership feels great paying for players no longer on the roster. (Please see Eaton, Adam) Pence. He works really well behind Howard, which he hasn't done yet. The team could bring up Brown and put him in RF again, but he will be needed in LF next year. Pence will end up being around $15/MM per year which a good protection hitter should make. Maybe a 4-5 year deal $60MM. I see our hero from 2008 making an exit. Some say if he leaves he could come back in FA. My friends if he leaves, he is NOT coming back. The Phillies may end up facing Hamels in the team's next WS appearance. In Texas. Next year's line up J-Roll, Vic, Utley, Howard, Pence, Olt, Ruiz, Brown. Halladay, Lee, Worley, May, FA. Paps, Bastardo, Diek, Stutes, DeFratus, Kendrick, FA.(maybe Valdes or Aumont) Galvis, FA catcher, Wigginton, Mayberry, FA utility INF. Let's not forget Uncle Chally will manage for the last time. Thanks for listening to me rant.

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