reality check part 2

It was late last night when I wrote my last post and after seeing a few comments I wanted to finish my thought now that I had a nights sleep. Sorry about using paragraphs, I didn't know you cared.

I will preface this with the fact that I am a life long Phils fan. My recent post is what I believe will happen, not what I want to happen. I believe Hamels will be traded due to the team's current position and the payday Cole will receive in his next contract. Also the Phils are one of the oldest teams in baseball and they need to put their neck out there and play some young guys.

A more in-depth look with Hamels situation is two possible outcomes. One, Cole is more interested with legacy than total contract dollars or years. It is rare for a player to play their entire career with one team. (J-Roll is trying to do this and maybe Utley and Howard too) He has the chance for his number to be retired in Philly. If there is a break in his tenure like being traded now and resigned this offseason it won't be the same. The team is sure to bounce back next year. If Hamels gets 20-25MM for next 5-6 years from the Phils, Montgomery will have to pay luxury tax to improve the offense next year. For some reason this is bad to ownership. Very very bad. This is how the rich stay rich, right?

The second outcome I started to touch on with my last post. Hamels gets traded for one top prospect and one or two prospects with potential. If traded to Texas they would only rent Hamels. Jon Daniels badly wants to win this year after being to the dance twice and watching someone else leave with the Commissioner's trophy. The Rangers have plenty of starting pitching depth, on the DL. They don't need Hamels past this year. Daniels also knows that someone like Mike Olt is being wasted in the minors. Profar would be nice but not needed unless he can play 3rd. Olt has the power with a decent average. Rare to find right now, and trading for Chase Headley is not the Phils answer.

Detroit's Castellanos is doing pretty good, but he doesn't hit for power just average. He is not a big enough prize for Hamels and he is still a year away from the MLB.

The Dodgers don't have the depth the Phils require, but they have the $$ to chase Cole in the offseason.

The only other team with the 3rd base talent would be Arizona. They have Matt Davidson who is tearing up the minors for the 3rd straight year. He may not be blocked to the majors like Olt, but if the D-Backs feel Hamels is the piece they need to make a deeper playoff run Davidson may have to be in the package. Like the Rangers, Hamels doesn't need to be in Arizona's long term plan and he would most likely hit free agency this offseason.

Let me again restate that this post is what is best for the team in my opinion. Cost controlled youth with less 15-20MM per year players is imperitive. Other teams are doing it and succeeding. This reminds me of Theo Epstein saying that he builds teams to at least make the playoffs every year because the playoffs are whoever gets hot. What's more important, trying to match the Braves 14 year division run or parading down Broad street?

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