Phillies Stat Notes -- July 6, 2012


Rects_mediumItems after the jump:
- Biggest one-year declines in Wins
- Draft success since 2000
- Phils batters vs. projections
- Phillies stats vs. 2011, and vs. the Braves
- NL Standings and team stats
- Milestones: Rollins, Pierre, Hamels, and Papelbon


Biggest Drops in Wins

With the Phillies facing a projected 31-win drop from last year (from 102 to 71), Justin F asked about the biggest year-over-year declines in wins in history in Tuesday's recap thread, A Drag in Queens. The declines of 30 wins or more since 1900 are below. I don't think the Phillies will actually come close to making this list:

NL
-40: 1935 Boston Braves (78 to 38) – Babe Ruth’s last year; kind of an interesting story here
-38: 1998 Florida Marlins (92 to 54) – after winning the WS in ’97
-33: 2004 Arizona Diamondbacks (84 to 51)
-30: 1992 LA Dodgers (93 to 63)
-30: 1943 NY Giants (85 to 55)

AL
-56: 1915 Philadelphia A’s (99 to 43) – Federal League raided its players
-35: 1914 Cleveland Naps/Indians (86 to 51)
-34: 1921 Chicago White Sox (96 to 62) – decimated by the Black Sox scandal
-33: 1934 Washington Senators (99 to 66)
-31: 2011 Minnesota Twins (94 to 63)
-30: 2004 Seattle Mariners (93 to 63)

Federal League
-37: 1915 Baltimore Terrapins (84 to 47)

For completeness, the wild and wacky 19th century also included these collapses:
-61: 1899 Cleveland Spiders (81 to 20) -- interesting story here
-58: 1885 St. Louis Maroons (94 to 36) -- switched to the NL in 1885 after winning the championshiop in 1884 in the only year of the Union Association's existence
-38: 1890 Pittsburgh Allegheneys (61 to 23) -- stars jumped to the Pittsburgh Burghers of the Players League
-31: 1885 Providence Grays (84 to 53) -- in their final season, after winning the NL championship the year before
-30: 1893 Brooklyn Grooms (95 to 65)

Draft Success Since 2000

Given the way this season has gone so far, some fans are expressing dissatisfaction with how the Phillies have drafted in recent years, even when accounting for the trades that heavily weakened the farm system.

The table below shows how many players from each team's drafts since 2000 have reached the majors (and gotten some minimal playing time -- 30+ innings or 100+ at bats). It also shows the number of players who have become more or less regulars, with 300 or more innings, or 1,000+ at bats (the cutoffs are arbitrary and may need adjusting to be more meaningful, and any suggestions there are welcome; also, all stats are through 2011).

The Phillies don't look good on this list, but that may be just a much a function of drafting philosophy (e.g. raw, "toolsy" high ceiling high schoolers, vs. more polished but lower ceiling college players, to over simplify). The list is as much about how quickly prospects can make it to the majors as the ultimate value of those prospects.

Since 2000 the Phillies have drafted 3 players who have now batted at least 1,000 times in the majors: Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Michael Bourn. That "3" ranks 22nd in the majors. Widening the search, they've drafted another 5 who who have had at least 100 at bats -- Carlos Rivera, Jason Jaramillo, Lou Marson, Jason Donald, and Domonic Brown. The total of 8 position players ranks 28th (and the at bats by all draftees rank 20th).

As for pitchers, they've drafted 5 who have already pitched 300 or more innings: Taylor Buchholtz, Gavin Floyd, Cole Hamels, Kyle Kendrick, and J.A. Happ. In addition, they've drafted 8 others who have pitched at least 30: Scott Mathieson, Brad Ziegler, Matt Maloney, Josh Outman, Mike Zagurski, Kyle Drabek, Vance Worley, and Mike Stutes. That total of 13 pitchers ranks 21st, and the 5 with 300+ is a respectable number, ranking 12th.

The total of 21 players who have gotten some minimal playing time (30+ IP, 100+ AB) is tied for last in the majors. Again, I think this is interesting, and speaks to draft philosophy, but I want to emphasize that it's too early to judge these drafts.

Draftf_medium

Draftgr_medium

Phillies Hitters vs. Projections

Phillies hitters' OPS as compared to their 2009-11 averages, and to where they were expected to be by the various projection systems.

Obviously some are over and some are under, but overall the Phillies have outperformed their OPS projections thus far.

Vproj_medium

Phillies Team Stats vs. 2011 and vs. Atlanta

Atlanta is in 3rd place in the NL East, 6 games back of Washington. They have the 4th best offense in the NL by both runs per game and wRC+. While the Braves are more patient than the Phillies, most of the offensive stats are very similar between the two teams.

Their pitching is average (7th in runs allowed) or somewhat below (12th in FIP, 10th in xFIP). However unlike the Phillies the Braves' strength is their bullpen, ranking 5th in NL FIP. Their starters' FIP is ranked 14th.

Dashs_medium

NL Standings and Team Stats

Stnds_medium

Milestones

Jimmy Rollins

- With his two RBIs on Wednesday, Rollins passed Wiz Kids third baseman Willie Puddin' Head Jones for 12th on the Phillies all-time list, with 754.

- He needs two more HRs (10 total) to also tie Jones for 12th in that category as well.

- His next double (20th) will tie Mike Schmidt for 2nd on the Phillies list at 408. Ed Delahanty is first, with 442, but Rollins should overtake him sometime in 2013.

Juan Pierre
- Pierre's 20th steal of the season on Wednesday made him the 13th player in history to steal 20 or more in 12 consecutive seasons. The other 12:

R.Henderson 23 (1979-2001), H.Wagner 19 (1897-1915), O.Smith 16 (1978-93), L.Brock 15 (1963-77), W.Wilson 15 (1978-92), T.Cobb 14 (1906-19), B.Butler 14 (1982-95), B.Campaneris 14 (1965-78), B.Abreu 13 (1999-2011), T.Raines 13 (1981-93), E.Collins 12 (1909-20), O.Nixon 12 (1988-99)

Abreu also had 19 in 1998.

Cole Hamels
- Hamels' start yesterday tied him with Eppa Rixey from the 1915 pennant winner for 11th on the Phillies all-time list in Games Started.
- His first start after the break (18th of the year) will tie him with Dick Ruthven and Tully Sparks (1897-1910) for 9th on the Phillies list.

Jonathan Papelbon
- His save on Tuesday tied him with Ugueth Urbina for 35th on the All-time list, with 237.
- His next save (19th) -- which he should have gotten last night! -- will tie him with Sparky Lyle for 34th at 238.

For reference:
- MLB All-time leaders: Hitting and Pitching
- Phillies All-time leaders: Hitting and Pitching

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