Phillies Stat Notes -- The Pitching is Back; Full Year Projections

Items after the jump:
- Phillies' paths to the postseason
- ERA by Month: starters and bullpen
- Hitting stats per 700 plate appearances
- Phils batters vs. projections
- Phillies stats vs. 2011, and vs. the Marlins
- NL Standings and team stats
- Milestones: Howard and the fewest games to 300; also Rollins, Utley, Halladay, and Hamels, and Lee

So you're telling me there's a chance...

NL Wildcard standings:

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Two paths to the postseason:

Crazy: The Phillies go 16-6 (.727) in their last 22 games and finish with 85 wins. In order to get the 2nd wild card spot, all of this would also have to happen:
- Cardinals do no better than 9-13 (.409) in their last 22 AND
- Dodgers do no better than 10-11 (.476) in their last 21 AND
- Pirates do no better than 12-11 (.522) in their last 23 AND
- Diamondbacks do no better than 15-6 (.714) in their last 21 AND
- Brewers do no better than 15-7 (.682) in their last 22

There are three main things here: Phillies continue surging, and Cardinals and Dodgers struggle. There is <50% but not trivial chance that any of these three would happen. All three of those happening is what makes this scenario "crazy".

Insane: The Phillies go 18-4 (.818) in their last 22 to finish 87-75. In order to get the 2nd wild card spot, all of this would also have to happen:
- Cardinals do no better than 11-11 (.500) in their last 22 AND
- Dodgers do no better than 12-9 (.571) in their last 21 AND
- Pirates do no better than 14-9 (.609) in their last 23 AND
- Diamondbacks do no better than 17-4 (.810) in their last 21 AND
- Brewers do no better than 17-5 (.773) in their last 22

This is more of the "Phillies control their own destiny" scenario, and requires one truly unlikely thing to happen.

Now, the Phils have only lost 6 of their last 21, and ALL SIX of those were either by one run or in extra innings, so while 18-4 would require tons of luck, it's not like asking the Marlins to go 18-4 at this point. (The Phillies have also won a number of close games in that stretch, of course).

For each of these teams, there is a magic number of Phillies wins and the other team's losses that would clinch the Phillies finishing ahead of them:

Cardinals 29, Dodgers 27, Pirates 27, D-backs 22, Brewers 23 (and Braves 34)

The above is what would be needed for the Phillies to win the 2nd wild card outright. If there is a tie for the 2nd spot, there would be a one-game playoff, and the winner of that game will then play the other wild card team in the play-in.

Pitching Is Back to Where We Expected

The Phillies are 32-21 since the All-Star Break, despite the fact that they've been scoring fewer runs:

87 games before ASB: 4.23 per game
53 games since ASB: 4.08 (.15 worse)

They've been winning because their pitching is back to where we expected it would be all year long:

before ASB: 4.55 per game
since ASB: 3.77 - 2nd best in the NL (.78 better)

Also, it's interesting how the performance of the bullpen (in terms of results, at least) has closely matched that of the starting pitching. ERA by month:

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Hitting Stats Extrapolated to a Full Season

I have to admit that after a steady diet of wOBA, OPS+, and other rate stats, I occasionally I need a fix of counting numbers. And, given the way this team, especially, has lacked full time players, the way these are most useful to me is in the form of a full season projection. Below are what the Phillies' stats to date would look like extrapolated to 700 plate appearances (Pence and Victorino are based on only their Phillies stats).

Highlights are shaded, but a few in particular stand out:
- Howard: 243 Ks, but also 126 RBIs
- Mayberry: 37 doubles and 25 homers
- Chooch: 211 hits, 55 doubles, 116 RBI (and 28 HBP)
- Galvis: 53 doubles, 84 RBI, but 25 walks
- Pierre: 62 stolen bases and 193 hits, but only 26 for extra bases
- Kratz: 49 homers, 131 RBI, and 44 doubles
- Frandsen: 220 hits
- Martinez: 98 hits, including 0 doubles, 0 triples, and 15 home runs

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Phillies Hitters vs. Projections

Phillies hitters' OPS compared to the past three years, and to what various projection systems predicted for 2012. Also includes recent trends (last 30 and last 7 days):
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Phillies Team Stats vs. 2011 and vs. the Marlins

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NL Standings and Team Stats

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Milestones


Jimmy Rollins
- 2 more stolen bases will make him the 3rd player in Phillies history to reach 400, joining Billy Hamilton (508) and Ed Delahanty (411). That will make Rollins just he 24th player in MLB history with 400 doubles, 400 steals, and 2,000 hits. There are only 7 in history with that combination and also 200 HRs (Rollins is at 187).
- He needs 3 walks (51) to tie Von Hayes for 8th in Phillies history at 619.
- His next triple (6th) will tie Sam Thompson for 3rd on the Phillies list at 106.
More on Rollins' climb up the Phillies record book in this recent milestones post.

Chase Utley
- Utley has 198 home runs and needs 2 more (12 total this year) to become the 9th Phillie to reach 200.
- 2 more doubles (13 total) will tie Granny Hamner for 10th in Phillies history at 271. The next one (14th)will then tie Sam Thompson for 9th.
- His next Sacrifice Fly (3rd this year) will join Bob Boone, Von Hayes, and Mike Lieberthal for 6th on the Phillies list at 43 (Rollins just moved ahead of that group and is in 5th with 44).
- 3 more HBPs will make him the 22nd player in history to reach 150.

Ryan Howard
- He now has 296 career home runs in 1,081 games, and needs 4 in his next 5 games in order to reach 300 in the fewest games in history, surpassing Ralph Kiner's record of 1,087. He's hit 10 in his first 54 games this year, so time is fast running out. Howard was already the fastest to 100, 200, and 250. More detail in this milestones post.

Roy Halladay
- Doc's next loss (his 8th of the year) will be the 100th of his career.
- He also needs 3 wins (12 total) to reach 200. He will become the 3rd active pitcher with 200+, joining Jamie Moyer (269) and Andy Petitte (243).

Cole Hamels
- Hamels' next start (28th) will tie him with Jim Bunning for 8th most starts in Phillies history, with 208.

Cliff Lee
- Needs 9 strikeouts to reach 1,500 for his career, which will make him the 26th active pitcher to do so.

Jonathan Papelbon
- His next save (33rd) will tie Dave Righetti for 31st All-time with 252.

Michael Martinez
- The worst offensive seasons in history are safe from Martinez for the moment. With his recent hot streak, his OPS+ is now up to 12, third lowest among players with 70+ PAs this year, behind Chris Coghlan and Jack Wilson (both at 8).
- By the way Martinez is one of ten players to have appeared at 6 or more defensive positions this season. One of those ten (Brent Lillibridge, who is on his 3rd team of 2012), has played at 7.

For reference:
- MLB All-time leaders: Hitting and Pitching
- Phillies All-time leaders: Hitting and Pitching

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