Phillies Stat Notes -- Postseason Dreamin', Howard's Race to 300

Items after the jump:
- Phillies' paths to the postseason
- Comparing double play combinations
- Phils batters vs. projections
- Phillies stats vs. 2011, and vs. the Astros
- Current stats vs. stats at the ASB
- NL Standings and team stats
- Milestones: Howard to 300, Rollins, et al

So you're telling me there's a chance...

NL Wildcard standings:

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These two paths to the postseason are now looking somewhat less "crazy" and "insane" than when we first started tracking them here.

Crazy: The Phillies go 13-6 (.684) in their last 19 games and finish with 85 wins. In order to get the 2nd wild card spot, all of this would also have to happen:
- Cardinals do no better than 9-10 (.474) in their last 19 AND
- Dodgers do no better than 10-9 (.526) in their last 19 AND
- Pirates do no better than 12-8 (.600) in their last 20 AND
- Brewers do no better than 12-7 (.632) in their last 19 AND
- Diamondbacks do no better than 13-6 (.684) in their last 19


Insane: The Phillies go 15-4 (.789) in their last 19 to finish 87-75. In order to get the 2nd wild card spot, all of this would also have to happen:
- Cardinals do no better than 11-8 (.579) in their last 19 AND
- Dodgers do no better than 12-7 (.632) in their last 19 AND
- Pirates do no better than 14-6 (.700) in their last 20 AND
- Brewers do no better than 14-5 (.737) in their last 19 AND
- Diamondbacks do no better than 15-4 (.789) in their last 19

Addendum -- progression of games vs. .500 since 2007; the all-star break was after game 87 this year
(click to enlarge)

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Comparing Double Play Combinations

Based on (f)WAR, Rollins and Utley have been one of the best double-play combinations in MLB this year, even before adjusting for Utley's lost playing time:

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When adjusting for playing time (i.e. WAR per 162 games), there's a tight bunch at the top:

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Phillies Hitters vs. Projections

Phillies hitters' OPS compared to the past three years, and to what various projection systems predicted for 2012. Also includes recent trends (last 30 and last 7 days):
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Phillies Team Stats vs. 2011 and vs. the Astros

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Below is a comparison of the stats as they stand today, with how they looked at the All Star Break:

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NL Standings and Team Stats

Yep, the Astros look pretty bad. They are 5-6 in September though, including a 2 of 3 series win vs. the Reds last weekend.

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Milestones


Jimmy Rollins
- His next stolen base (27th of the year) will make him the 3rd player in Phillies history to reach 400, joining Billy Hamilton (508) and Ed Delahanty (411). That will make Rollins just he 24th player in MLB history with 400 doubles, 400 steals, and 2,000 hits. There are only 7 in history with that combination and also 200 HRs (Rollins is at 189).
- He needs 2 walks (51) to tie Von Hayes for 8th in Phillies history at 619.
- His next triple (6th) will tie Sam Thompson for 3rd on the Phillies list at 106.
More on Rollins' climb up the Phillies record book in this recent milestones post.

Chase Utley
- Utley has 198 home runs and needs 2 more (12 total this year) to become the 9th Phillie to reach 200.
- His next double (13th) will tie Granny Hamner for 10th in Phillies history at 271.
- The one after that (14th) will then tie Sam Thompson for 9th.
- His next Sacrifice Fly (3rd this year) will join Bob Boone, Von Hayes, and Mike Lieberthal for 6th on the Phillies list at 43 (Rollins just moved ahead of that group and is in 5th with 45).
- 2 more HBPs (11 total) will make him the 22nd player in MLB history to get plunked 150 times.

Ryan Howard
Thanks in part to not playing full-time until he was 25 years old and already a fully formed slugger, Howard reached his 100th, 200th, and 250th home runs in fewer games than any player in history. However duplicating that feat with the 300 HR milestone is proving much harder. He came into the season needing 14 home runs in 59 games, and got off to a good start, hitting 7 in the first 29. Since then he's been scuffling, hitting .224/.303/.364, with only 3 homers in those last 28 games. So he's now at 296 home runs in 1,084 games, and is faced with having to hit 4 in the next two in order to surpass Ralph Kiner one more time. At this rate it will be close as to whether he can get to 300 in fewer games than Juan Gonzalez (albeit purportedly through the wonders of science, Juan Gone had 340 dingers before his 30th birthday).

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Below are the fastest in terms of fewest at bats -- Howard had set the record for the first 100 and first 200 home runs, before falling off the pace. He now has 4,001 career at bats.

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Roy Halladay
- Doc's next loss (his 8th of the year) will be the 100th of his career.
- He also needs 2 wins (12 total) to reach 200. He will become the 3rd active pitcher with 200+, joining Jamie Moyer (269) and Andy Petitte (243).

Cole Hamels
- Hamels' next start (28th), scheduled for tomorrow, will tie him with Jim Bunning for 8th most starts in Phillies history, with 208.

Cliff Lee
- Needs 3 strikeouts to reach 1,500 for his career, which will make him the 26th active pitcher to do so.

Jonathan Papelbon
- His 34th save of the season yesterday moved him ahead of Dave Righetti for 31st All-time, with 253.

For reference:
- MLB All-time leaders: Hitting and Pitching
- Phillies All-time leaders: Hitting and Pitching

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