Phillies Stat Notes: Dr. Ryan Jekyll and Mr. Ryan Hyde

Items after the jump:
- Howard feasting with RISP; not so much without
- Phillies' paths to the postseason
- Phils batters vs. projections
- Phillies stats vs. 2011, and vs. the Mets
- NL Standings and team stats
- Milestones: Howard to 300, Rollins, et al

Ryan Howard: Feast (with RISP) or Famine (no RISP)

Howard has looked terrible at the plate for most of the season. Yet he has somehow managed to driven in 46 runs in 61 games, which projects out to 122 over a full season. The reason for this dichotomy has been an extreme split between his at bats with men in scoring position, and those without:

Rhrisp_medium

So you're telling me there's a chance...

NL Wildcard standings:

97969772_medium

Chances are increasingly slim, but they are still there:

Crazy: The Phillies go 12-3 (.800) in their last 15 games and finish with 85 wins. In order to get the 2nd wild card spot, all of this would also have to happen:
- Cardinals do no better than 7-8 (.467) in their last 15 AND
- Dodgers do no better than 8-7 (.533) in their last 15 AND
- Pirates do no better than 11-6 (.647) in their last 17 AND
- Brewers do no better than 10-6 (.625) in their last 16 AND
- Diamondbacks do no better than 12-4 (.750) in their last 16

Winning percentage needed for the rest of the year in order to get to 85 wins:

Wp85_medium


Insane: The Phillies go 14-1 (.933) in their last 15 to finish 87-75. In order to get the 2nd wild card spot, all of this would also have to happen:
- Cardinals do no better than 9-6 (.600) in their last 15 AND
- Dodgers do no better than 10-5 (.667) in their last 15 AND
- Pirates do no better than 13-4 (.765) in their last 17 AND
- Brewers do no better than 12-4 (.750) in their last 16 AND
- Diamondbacks do no better than 14-2 (.875) in their last 16

Progression of games vs. .500 since 2007; the all-star break was after game 87 this year
(click to enlarge)

Gv5f_medium

.

Phillies Hitters vs. Projections

Phillies hitters' OPS compared to the past three years, and to what various projection systems predicted for 2012. Also includes recent trends (last 30 and last 7 days):
Vproj_medium

Phillies Team Stats vs. 2011 and vs. the Astros

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NL Standings and Team Stats

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Milestones


Jimmy Rollins
- On Thursday, Rollins became the 3rd player in Phillies history to steal 400 bases, joining Billy Hamilton (508) and Ed Delahanty (411). That also made him just he 24th player in MLB history with 400 doubles, 400 steals, and 2,000 hits. There are only 7 in history with that combination and also 200 HRs (Rollins is at 190).
- With his 52nd walk of the year on Saturday, he moved ahead of Von Hayes into 8th place in Phillies history, and now has 621. Next is Delahanty at 643.
- His next triple (6th) will tie Sam Thompson for 3rd on the Phillies list at 106.
More on Rollins' climb up the Phillies record book in this recent milestones post.

Chase Utley
- Utley's double on Friday (his 13th) tied him with Granny Hamner for 10th in Phillies history at 271.
- His next one (14th) will tie Sam Thompson for 9th.
- His Sacrifice Fly on Saturday tied Bob Boone, Von Hayes, and Mike Lieberthal for 6th on the Phillies list at 43 (Rollins just moved ahead of that group and is in 5th with 45).
- Utley has 198 home runs and needs 2 more (12 total this year) to become the 9th Phillie to reach 200.
- One more HBP (11th this year) will make him the 22nd player in MLB history to get plunked 150 times.

Ryan Howard
After getting to 100, 200, and 250 home runs in fewer games than any player in history, Ryan Howard fell short of that for his 300th home run. Ralph Kiner got his 300th in his 1,087th game, and Howard now has hit 296 in 1,088.

He needs 4 in his next 7 games to get there in the second fewest games, ahead of Juan Gonzalez (purportedly through the wonders of science, Juan Gone had 340 dingers before his 30th birthday):

Fewg_medium

Below are the fastest in terms of fewest at bats -- Howard had set the record for the first 100 and first 200 home runs, before falling off the pace. He now has 4,017 career at bats.

Fewab_medium

In other stats, Howard needs 5 extra base hits to tie Pat Burrell for 9th most in Phillies history, at 518.

Roy Halladay
- Doc's next loss (his 8th of the year) will be the 100th of his career.
- He also needs 2 wins (12 total) to reach 200. He will become the 3rd active pitcher with 200+, joining Jamie Moyer (269) and Andy Petitte (243).

Cole Hamels
- With his start on Friday, Hamels tied Jim Bunning for 8th most starts in Phillies history, with 208.

Cliff Lee
- Needs 3 strikeouts to reach 1,500 for his career, which will make him the 26th active pitcher to do so.

Jonathan Papelbon
- Needs 3 saves (37 total) to tie Todd Worrell for 30th All-time at 256.

For reference:
- MLB All-time leaders: Hitting and Pitching
- Phillies All-time leaders: Hitting and Pitching

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