I'd like to share a few results from my homemade playoff simulator. I spent the time to it together for two main reasons: to see (ahead of time) how much was at stake on each days games, and also to test how sensitive the projections were to the strength estimates of each team.
The results are below the jump:
|Playoffs||at least tie
|Perfectly Awful day||0.5%||1.0%||72.7%||17.2%||8.7%||0.7%|
|Early Birds: STL lose, MIL lose others random||4.2%||6.8%||66.8%||15.1%||12.3%||1.6%|
|PHI win, others random||3.9%||6.3%||71.9%||15.6%||7.7%||0.9%|
|PHI win, STL lose others go against||4.3%||7.0%||53.2%||26.9%||14.2%||1.4%|
|PHI win STL lose MIL lose others go against||5.4%||8.8%||61.7%||13.3%||17.5%||2.0%|
|Other strength values (Right now):|
|STL is much better: STL = .580 PHI = .525||1.6%||2.7%||77.0%||13.8%||6.9%||0.7%|
The number next to playoffs uses a somewhat crudely calculated tiebreaker, in that it doesn't take into account home field (or seeding in the case of 3-way tie). In the "Phils at least tie" column, you see the chance that the Phils will have at least some share of a playoff spot after 162 games.
One interesting thing to note....each Phils game right now, probably has less playoff consequence than a typical early season game when the team's playoff estimates resides in the 35%-65% range..... An example to compare: On May 10, WSH played PIT as the only game in the NL. WSH postseason chances moved up 3.5% with their win (according to coolstandings.com). One might use this (and basic logic: an unexpected 7 game losing streak will cause a 50% playoff team to lose about half its expectation) to say that a typical early season playoff contender has around 3-4% of playoff consequence associated with each game. The Phils, at least right now and according to my estimates , only have around 1.3% at stake.
And lastly, the gritty details used to make the table:
Most of the values in the table use (except where noted):
PHI = .550, STL = .560, MIL = .532, LAD = .517, WSH = .550 (important 6-time PHI opponent).
My idea in using these numbers was that the shortened Phils rotation, along with Kendrick who may well pitch above his projections, will punch a bit above their weight in this short run. Also, WSH was lowered to .550 due to resting players/disinterest. This is certainly the optimist's estimate; see the last line in the table for a more pessimistic estimate. Most of the other values simply came from BP's depth chart estimate a week or two ago.