Phillies Stat Notes: How bad is Michael Martinez; Party like it's 1,999

Rects_mediumItems after the jump:
- Michael Martinez: Historically Awful
- Phillies' paths to the postseason
- Phils batters vs. projections
- Phillies stats vs. 2011, and vs. the Reds
- NL Standings and team stats
- Milestones: Rollins joining exclusive company; also Howard, Utley, Pierre, Halladay, and Hamels


Michael Martinez: Historically Awful

- There have been 33,367 player seasons (by non-pitchers) with 100+ plate appearances. Only 38 of those had a lower OPS+ than the "2" (OPS .380) that Michael Martinez has put up this year in 80 PAs. Only 15 of those 38 have been in the 93 years since 1920.

- His .122 batting average is even worse. Of the 33,367, only 17 have ended in a lower BA. Since 1991, two players have had a lower batting average in 100+ PAs: Brandon Larson of the Reds in 2003 (.101 in 104 PAs), and Antonio Perez of the A's in 2006 (.102 in 109 PAs).

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So you're telling me there's a chance...

An update of the two scenarios proposed a week ago...

Crazy: The Phillies go 20-7 (.741) in their last 27 games and finish with 85 wins. In order to get the 2nd wild card spot, all of this would also have to happen:
- Cardinals do no better than 11-16 (.407) in their last 27 AND
- Dodgers do no better than 11-15 (.423) in their last 26 AND
- Pirates do no better than 14-14 (.500) in their last 28 AND
- Diamondbacks do no better than 18-8 (.692) in their last 26

St. Louis and LA would both have to struggle down the stretch.

Insane: The Phillies go 22-5 (.815) in their last 27 to finish 87-75. In order to get the 2nd wild card spot, all of this would also have to happen:
- Cardinals do no better than 13-14 (.481) in their last 27 AND
- Dodgers do no better than 13-13 (.500) in their last 26 AND
- Pirates do no better than 16-12 (.571) in their last 28 AND
- Diamondbacks do no better than 20-6 (.769) in their last 26

The above is what would be needed for the Phillies to win the 2nd wild card outright. If there is a tie for the 2nd spot, there would be a one-game playoff, and the winner of that game will then play the other wild card team in the play-in.

Phillies Hitters vs. Projections

Phillies hitters' OPS compared to the past three years, and to what various projection systems predicted for 2012. Also includes recent trends (last 30 and last 7 days):
Vproj_medium

Phillies Team Stats vs. 2011 and vs. the Reds

This now includes BABIP against in the pitching section.

Dashl_medium

NL Standings and Team Stats

Stnds_medium

Milestones


Jimmy Rollins
2000 hits: Rollins needs 1 more hit (134 for the year) to reach 2,000 for his career. He'll become the 4th Phillie to reach 2,000, joining Mike Schmidt (2,234), Richie Ashburn (2,217), and Ed Delahanty (2,213). Ashburn broke Delahanty's team record in his last week as a Phillie. After he surpassed Ashburn, Schmidt got only 16 more hits before announcing his retirement. Barring serious injury, Rollins will likely pass Schmidt in mid-2014, and will then have at least half a season, and most likely one and a half years, to build on the record. With 2,000 hits, he'll also become one of 25 active players, and one of 37 shortstops in MLB history to reach that level. Of those 36 other shortstops, only 10 had 2,000 by their age 33 season.
400 steals: 2 more stolen bases will make him the 3rd player in Phillies history to reach 400, joining (the original) Billy Hamilton (508) and Ed Delahanty (411).
- Reaching 400 steals and 2,000 hits will also make him just he 24th player in history with 400 doubles, 400 steals, and 2,000 hits. There are only 7 in history with that combination and also 200 HRs (Rollins is at 187).
Also:
- He needs 4 walks (51) to tie Von Hayes for 8th in Phillies history at 619.
- His next triple (6th) will tie Sam Thompson for 3rd on the Phillies list at 106.
More on Rollins' climb up the Phillies record book in this recent milestones post.

Chase Utley
- Utley's double on Saturday was the 500th extra base hit of his career, making him the 12th Phillie in history to hit 500 with the team.
- 2 more extra base hits (23 total) will tie him with Cy Williams for 11th on the Phillies all-time list at 503 (Howard passed Williams earlier this month and stands at 510). Pat Burrell is next at 518.
- He needs 3 home runs to reach 200 for his career.
- 3 more doubles (13 total) will tie Granny Hamner for 10th in Phillies history at 271.
- His next Sacrifice Fly (3rd this year) will join Bob Boone, Von Hayes, and Mike Lieberthal for 6th on the Phillies list at 43 (Rollins just moved ahead of that group and is in 5th with 44).
- 3 more HBPs will make him the 22nd player in history to reach 150.

Ryan Howard
- Howard's 2nd RBI on Sunday in Atlanta was the 900th of his career, making him the 6th Phillie to reach that level.
- He has 296 career home runs in 1,076 games, and needs 4 in his next 11 games in order to reach 300 in the fewest games in history, surpassing Ralph Kiner's record of 1,087. He's hit 10 in his first 49 games this year, so he will need to get hot in order to have a shot. Howard was already the fastest to 100, 200, and 250. More detail in this milestones post.

Roy Halladay
- Doc's next loss (his 8th of the year) will be the 100th of his career.
- He also needs 4 wins to reach 200, and currently has the 7th highest winning percentage in history, at .664. If he wins a game before he loses one, his 197-99 record will move into 5th place in all-time W-L%, surpassing both Christy Mathewson and (5'3", 127-lb) 19th century pitcher Larry Corcoran.

Cole Hamels
- Hamels' next start (27th this year) will tie Jim Bunning for 8th most in Phillies history, with 208.

Jonathan Papelbon
- He needs two saves (33 total) to tie Dave Righetti for 31st All-time with 252.

For reference:
- MLB All-time leaders: Hitting and Pitching
- Phillies All-time leaders: Hitting and Pitching

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