Phillies Stat Notes -- Mayberry, Milestones, and MiniMart

Items after the jump:
- Mayberry surging
- Phillies' paths to the postseason
- Phils batters vs. projections
- Phillies stats vs. 2011, and vs. the Rockies
- NL Standings and team stats
- Milestones: Rollins joining exclusive company; also Howard, Utley, Halladay, and Hamels (and Martinez)

Hittin' Weather for John Mayberry Jr

Since August 13th, Mayberry is hitting .350/.398/.588 (.985 OPS), thanks in part to a .365 BABIP. He only has 751 plate appearances in the majors, barely more than a full season's worth, but so far his monthly splits are forming a nice pattern:

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So you're telling me there's a chance...

Till the bitter end.

Crazy: The Phillies go 19-6 (.760) in their last 25 games and finish with 85 wins. In order to get the 2nd wild card spot, all of this would also have to happen:
- Cardinals do no better than 10-15 (.400) in their last 25 AND
- Dodgers do no better than 11-13 (.458) in their last 24 AND
- Pirates do no better than 12-14 (.462) in their last 26 AND
- Diamondbacks do no better than 16-8 (.667) in their last 24 AND
- Brewers do no better than 17-8 (.680) in their last 25

Many teams, but mostly St. Louis, would both have to struggle down the stretch.

Insane: The Phillies go 21-4 (.840) in their last 25 to finish 87-75. In order to get the 2nd wild card spot, all of this would also have to happen:
- Cardinals do no better than 12-13 (.480) in their last 25 AND
- Dodgers do no better than 13-11 (.542) in their last 24 AND
- Pirates do no better than 14-12 (.538) in their last 26 AND
- Diamondbacks do no better than 18-6 (.750) in their last 24 AND
- Brewers do no better than 19-6 (.760) in their last 25

For each of these teams, there is a magic number of Phillies wins and the other team's losses that would clinch the Phillies finishing ahead of them:

Cardinals 34, Dodgers 32, Pirates 33, D-backs 27, Brewers 27 (and Braves 37)

The above is what would be needed for the Phillies to win the 2nd wild card outright. If there is a tie for the 2nd spot, there would be a one-game playoff, and the winner of that game will then play the other wild card team in the play-in.

Phillies Hitters vs. Projections

Phillies hitters' OPS compared to the past three years, and to what various projection systems predicted for 2012. Also includes recent trends (last 30 and last 7 days):
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Phillies Team Stats vs. 2011 and vs. the Rockies

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NL Standings and Team Stats

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Milestones


Jimmy Rollins
2000 hits: Rollins' double on Tuesday made him the 4th Phillie to reach 2,000 hits, joining Mike Schmidt (2,234), Richie Ashburn (2,217), and Ed Delahanty (2,213). He will likely pass them all sometime in 2014. Rollins became the 25th active player, and 37th shorstop in history to reach 2,000. He's the 11th shortstop to reach this level by his age 33 season.
400 steals: 2 more stolen bases will make him the 3rd player in Phillies history to reach 400, joining Billy Hamilton (508) and Ed Delahanty (411).
- Reaching 400 steals will also make him just he 24th player in history with 400 doubles, 400 steals, and 2,000 hits. There are only 7 in history with that combination and also 200 HRs (Rollins is at 187).
Also:
- He needs 4 walks (51) to tie Von Hayes for 8th in Phillies history at 619.
- His next triple (6th) will tie Sam Thompson for 3rd on the Phillies list at 106.
More on Rollins' climb up the Phillies record book in this recent milestones post.

Chase Utley
- Utley's home run on Wednesday was the 503rd extra base hit of his career, tying Cy Williams for 11th on the Phillies all-time list. Howard passed Williams earlier this month and stands at 510, and Pat Burrell is next at 518.
- That home run was the 198th of his career, and he needs 2 more to become the 9th Phillie to reach 200.
- 2 more doubles (13 total) will tie Granny Hamner for 10th in Phillies history at 271. The next one (14th)will then tie Sam Thompson for 9th.
- His next Sacrifice Fly (3rd this year) will join Bob Boone, Von Hayes, and Mike Lieberthal for 6th on the Phillies list at 43 (Rollins just moved ahead of that group and is in 5th with 44).
- 3 more HBPs will make him the 22nd player in history to reach 150.

Ryan Howard
- He now has 296 career home runs in 1,078 games, and needs 4 in his next 8 games in order to reach 300 in the fewest games in history, surpassing Ralph Kiner's record of 1,087. He's hit 10 in his first 51 games this year, time is fast running out. Howard was already the fastest to 100, 200, and 250. More detail in this milestones post.

Roy Halladay
- Doc's win on Wednesday pushed his career W-L percentage to .666, which is the 5th highest in MLB history.
- His next loss (his 8th of the year) will be the 100th of his career.
- He also needs 3 wins (12 total) to reach 200. He will become the 3rd active pitcher with 200+, joining Jamie Moyer (269) and Andy Petitte (243).

Cole Hamels
- Hamels' next start (27th this year) will tie Jim Bunning for 8th most in Phillies history, with 208.

Jonathan Papelbon
- He needs two saves (33 total) to tie Dave Righetti for 31st All-time with 252.

Michael Martinez
Martinez' batting average and OPS+ are at historically low levels, and they continued dropping during the Reds series. We could just compare OPS, but since the level of offense changes from one era to the next, we use OPS+ instead since it controls for that.

His OPS+ is now -3 (yep, negative three). There have been over 33,000 player seasons with 100+ plate appearances (by non-pitchers) in the history of MLB, and only 17 of them have produced a lower OPS+. And only 4 of those 17 have occurred since 1937, with the last being in 1988, by one Mike Laga of the Cardinals.

His .115 batting average is even worse. Of those 33,000+ player seasons, only 11 have ended in a lower batting average.

MLB -- Half Million Error March
According to the Baseball-Reference.com home page, MLB is on the verge of recording the 500,000th error in history (since 1876). There have been 499,845, and the half-millionth will likely be made over the next two weeks.

For reference:
- MLB All-time leaders: Hitting and Pitching
- Phillies All-time leaders: Hitting and Pitching

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