The Week (and a half) in Prospects

The best part about Spring Training? I finally have something other that Ruben's right eye or stock Cholly photos to put with Prospect updates! Look Tommy Joseph! - US PRESSWIRE

And the lists keep coming. New Rankings from Phuture Phillies and Fangraphs.

Phuture Phillies released their Top 30 on Friday (read it here). Matt Winkleman (Mattwinks) put this together and there are several things I like. First he includes his thoughts on ceiling, Estimated Arrival in the bigs and risk. Not a lot of lists have that, and it's a nice addition. The other thing I quite liked is that Matt writes about ~50 prospects. With a Top 30, some borderline guys, sleepers, etc.. So set aside some time and read this. It's very dense, but it's very well worth the effort. Excellent stuff.

The one area where I'll differ with Matt is in his listing of Top Phillies under 25, in that I don't agree with the ranking on Brown. Even if Brown only ends up a solid regular, I would think that more valuable than at least 3 of the players he's ranked below. That's a fairly minor quibble though.

Also, out today, is Marc Hulet's Top 15 Phillies Prospects over at Fangraphs. (read it here) The Top 3 is basically the same one every single person on the planet has posted. It gets more interesting after that as Pettibone is higher than many other experts have him and Joseph is lower (even though, honestly, the write ups read like it could be the other way around). Beyond that a few nice writeups on Tocci, Greene and Watson. Marc also mentions both Valle and Joseph as likely to go to Lehigh Valley. This is interesting. Assume that Kratz and Quintero start the season in Philly (far from certain, since Quintero isn't likely any better than Valle or Jospeh at this point). You would have Joseph and Valle, who both need experience behind the dish, switching days as starters. I think it's more likely that Valle swings wildly in Allentown, while Joseph swings, slightly less wildly, in Reading. In this way, both get regular at bats and games behind the plate. Once Chooch is back, Lerud backs up Tommy in Reading and Quintero/Kratz backs up Valle in Lehigh. If one of them breaks camp with the big club, it needs to be as a starter. It won't do either any good to sit around for a month eating sunflower seeds.

Lastly, everyone loves them some Keith Law. I'm being somewhat sarcastic there, but love or hate the guy (and more seem to fall in the second camp than the first) the guy is probably the best prospect analyst out there. He may sometimes word analysis in such a way as to court controversy or disagreement, but he's right often enough, that I can live with that. Eric, over at Crashburn Alley has an interview up with Keith discussing the Phillies Org, decision making, idiotic stance on stats, etc. a little bit of everything. Go read it yourself, but to summarize a few salient points... Here's the money quote, for me, "I still can’t quite fathom their pride in their refusal to use any kind of analytics in their decision-making. When your competitors are operating 12-man analytics departments, why would you brag about how you don’t have one at all?".

  • Notes Yoel Mecias as a breakout candidate. Mecias is a LHP who hasn't gotten a ton of press to this point.
  • Really doesn't like Dylan Cozens much. Character issues and no skill other than power.
  • Intimates that the Phillies drafting of high tools players is a good strategy, but that the Phillies just don't have the ability to develop those players.

There were a few spots where I'd hoped for follow-up questions, but since the interview was via e-mail I can understand there not being an additional question or two. Eric has a whole series of these interviews and if you haven't been following, go catch up, there's some good material in there.

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