On the way to work this morning I had this conversation, as I do just about every morning with my dad.
POPS: You see that game?
ME: Just like they scripted it in spring training. 4 pitch walk to Delmon, pick off of the pitcher pinch running, and Kratz and Galvis home runs off Aroldis Chapman.....
POPS: I don't know, I think Galvis is the real deal.
ME: He might be. its a small sample dad but...
POPS: Oh give me a break with your saber-metric shit. If he's 3/4 the hitter he's showing he is, he's gonna be an all star.
ME: Well, that remains to be seen dad, he needs to play, that's for sure.
POPS: What they need to do is trade Rollins for an OF, and give the kid a shot.
ME; It doesn't work like that, dad. If they move Rollins, they're not gonna move him for an OF, they'll move him for prospects.
POPS: Because WHY??? That's the problem with trades now.
ME: What do you mean?
POPS: What I mean is it used to be you traded a major leaguer for another major leaguer. You have a SS, and another guy who can play SS, you need a RF, you trade your shortstop to a team that needs a SS and has a RF they want to get rid of. It's pretty damn simple. There has to be a team out there with an extra OF, who could use Rollins.
ME: the Dodgers work.
ME: Well, probably Ethier or Crawford. They have Yasel Puig at AA tearing it up and both of them block him.
POPS: Ethier stinks and hes LH, and can't hit lefties to save his life. But Crawford would be good for this team.
ME: Call Ruben Dad.
It's almost too simple a solution to work but its one that deserves exploring.
Two teams, with massive payrolls, that match up need wise. Two teams that might be sellers but might be buyers. Two teams that hate the idea of conceding anything.
Yet, a system that says "Trade for Zach Lee to build the farm instead."
Well lets explore that for a second Turn back the clock to last summer, when everyone said we needed a 3B. And everyone and their mother looked at Mike Olt, and his 289/404/577 clip with 24 HRs through mid July as the savior.
Here are three AAA slash lines nearly a year later.
139/235/236 with 1 HR 9 BB 32Ks through 81 PA
271/326/413 with 4 Hr 13 BB and 41 Ks through 172
226/297/274 PA with 0 HR 10 BB and 20Ks through 118 PA
Take a minute and look at those links.
Granted, small sample sizes apply here, but your eyes do not deceive you, (Though they are deceiving him).
Michael Martinez is hitting better than Michael Olt. And our AAA 3B prospect looks like he might be able to contribute next year.
Meanwhile, the OTHER 3B we ended up trading for from the same team, who cost a fraction of what Olt would have cost, is currently sporting a .392 OBP, and has 23 walks. 10 fewer than he had all last season, and has made just two errors in eighty chances.The same guy that everyone said was a mistake, washed up, etc.. WHY DIDN'T WE GO FOR OLT!!!
Now, I'm not pretending to make a case here that Mike Olt won't figure it out and have a successful career. But there is DANGER involved in deeming a not ready prospect a ready prospect and savior, and wanting to trade for that guy, if you expect him to make an immediate impact at the big league level. Even a top 50 guy.
Mike Olt would have cost WAY more than Jimmy Rollins last summer. The same will hold true for this summer, with any top prospect. And if the Phillies do decide to sell, the prospects they'll likely get back wont be as cant miss as Mike Olt.
And try and follow my logic here: If you're gonna sell, your selling to either
a) restock the system and you go out in free agency to find the guys to play at the ML level hopjng that the guys you develop turn out
b) to restock to go after someone in a trade by using those prospects.
So using that logic, why not try and go old school here?
I mean, whats the point in moving a guy like Rollins for a lottery ticket or two that may or may not help you land a bigger fish? Other than to free up space to go after A guy like Jacoby Ellsbury or Curtis Granderson at 20mm per year?
Why not just TRADE HIM NOW FOR AN OF making 20mm a year through 2017, who blocks the path of a potential phenom currently destroying AA pitching on a team that has a $217,000,000 payroll? That needs a SS?
That's exactly the kind of deal the Phillies should make. There's more to consider here. Both guys have trade protection, The Dodgers would likely prefer to move Ethier, etc...
But its an interesting idea. And one that makes too much sense to actually happen.