The math by which the Phillies could reach the postseason was made a bit more unlikely by the events of this past weekend.
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- Playoff Scenarios
- Phillies Hitters
- Phillies Team Stats vs. 2012 and vs. Cardinals
- NL Standings and team stats
- Upcoming Milestones
The Phils are still 6.5 behind Atlanta in the NL East and only a half-game ahead of Washington (and tied with the Nats in the loss column).
We've been using 88 wins as a target for the Phillies to be in contention for the postseason, if for no other reason than that anything more than that would require an even more improbable run over the final 60+ games of the season.
In any case, to get to 88 wins they would need to play at a 100-win pace the rest of the way:
And for those 88 wins to be enough to win the NL East, Atlanta would essentially have to continue playing as well (and with the same amount of luck), as they have for the last 3 months. The Braves are 42-41 since April 19th.
On the other hand the Phillies could sneak in with one of the wild cards, if two of three other teams in contention play at the level shown above, or worse.
The Phils have 13 games left against Atlanta and 9 against Washington, but even so they will be relying on other teams to help them down the stretch.
This now includes a comparison of each player's OPS to the NL average OPS at that position (from baseball-reference.com).
So, for example, Brown's OPS is 22% higher than his OPS in 2010-2012, 10% higher than the average pre-season projection for his OPS, and 13% higher than the average OPS for NL leftfielders this year:
Phillies Team Stats vs. 2012
St. Louis has been the best hitting team in the NL so far:
Pitching and Defense
...and the best pitching team as well, based on FIP and xFIP (as well as FIP- and xFIP-):
NL Standings and Team Stats
Milestones that may be reached over the next week or so...
- Rollins needs 3 more doubles (21 total) to tie Ed Delahanty as the Phillies' all-time leader, with 442.
- 3 more RBIs (34 this year) will tie Pat Burrell for 8th most in Phils history at 827.
- He also needs 2 more home runs to reach 200 for his career, becoming the 10th Phillie to do so. That will make Rollins just the 9th player (and only shortstop) in MLB history to have 2,000 hits, 400 stolen bases, and 200 home runs.
- Utley's HBP yesterday tied Brady Anderson for 19th all-time, at 154.
- Hamels' next win (5th) will tie Jack Taylor (1892-97) for 9th on the Phils' all-time list.
- He needs to pitch 10 more innings (144 for the year) to tie Jim Bunning for 10th most in Phils' history.
- Lee needs 2 2/3 innings to reach 2,000 for his career. He'll become the 23rd active pitcher to reach that level.
- Manuel has 996 career wins, and 4 more will make him the 59th manager in MLB history to win 1,000 games. Out of those 59 managers, his .552 winning percentage will be the 16th highest.
- Phillies All-time hitting leaders
- Phillies All-time pitching leaders
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