Playoff possibilities are mostly academic at this point, due in large part to a team ERA that has gone from first (and historically great) to worst in the space of two years; Rollins is one double away from the Phillies' all-time lead, and Manuel is four wins from 1,000 for his career (59th manager in MLB history).
While they lost three games in what remained of the NL East race since traveling to Detroit, they actually gained half a game on Cincinnati for the Wild card. The Reds also got swept over the weekend (by LA), and then lost again yesterday.
- Playoff Scenarios - Phillies Hitters - Phillies Team Stats vs. 2012 and vs. the Giants - NL Standings and team stats - Upcoming Milestones
The 1-8 road trip already has the Phillies looking to next year and beyond, but just for kicks (or masochism) below is what would have to happen for the Phils to sneak in to the postseason:
1) Play .684 ball in the last 57 games
2) either : a) Atlanta tanks (for the Division) OR b) Cincinnati tanks (for the Wildcard)
If they got more help from the Reds, one slightly less impossible scenario for the Phillies to get the second wild card:
Phils 37-20, to finish 86-76 Reds 26-29, to finish 85-77
e.g. Brown's OPS is 20% higher than his OPS in 2010-2012, 8% higher than the average pre-season projection, and 11% higher than the average OPS for NL leftfielders this year.
A few things jump out of the spaghetti tangle below:
- Phils runs per game: steady rise through June and July, and then the dip after the ASB - the battle between Brown and Utley for the team lead - Howard's rise and subsequent dip (0-24) in June-July - Revere's rise from the depths, before going on the DL - Delmon's fall back to the land of "defensive liability trumps any little offense" - Chooch's lost season
In two short years, the Phillies' team ERA has gone from first (and historically great), to worst in the NL:
NL Standings and Team Stats
The Phillies have certainly been disappointing this year, but does it really compare to the fall of the reigning World Series Champions? The Giants have gone from winning the 2012 World Series to last place in the NL West.
There seems to be plenty of blame to go around:
Their offense has fallen from 6th (4.43 per game) to 12th (3.84)
While run prevention has gone from 6th (4.01) to 11th (4.43)
Milestones that may be reached over the next week or so...
Jimmy Rollins - Rollins' next double (21st) will tie Ed Delahanty as the Phillies' all-time leader, with 442. - 3 more RBIs (34 this year) will tie Pat Burrell for 8th most in Phils history at 827. - 5 more extra base hits (31 total) will make him only the 8th shortstop in baseball history to reach 750 in his career. - He also needs 2 more home runs to reach 200, becoming the 10th Phillie to do so. That will make Rollins just the 9th player (and only shortstop) in MLB history to have 2,000 hits, 400 stolen bases, and 200 home runs.
Chase Utley - Utley's next HBP (4th) will pass Brady Anderson for sole possession of 19th all-time, at 155.
Cole Hamels - Hamels' next win (5th) will tie Jack Taylor (1892-97) for 9th on the Phils' all-time list. - He needs to pitch 3 more innings (144 for the year) to tie Jim Bunning for 10th most in Phils' history.
Cliff Lee - Lee needs 2 2/3 innings to reach 2,000 for his career. He'll become the 23rd active pitcher to reach that level.
Charlie Manuel - Manuel has 996 career wins, and 4 more will make him the 59th manager in MLB history to win 1,000 games. Out of those 59 managers, his .550 winning percentage will be the 16th highest.
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