According to Jim Salisbury, the Phillies failed to reach agreements with Ben Revere and Antonio Bastardo by yesterday's 1 PM deadline.
While the team can still settle on a contract with each player, the figures released show fairly significant gaps. From the Salisbury piece:
Revere, who made $515,000 in 2013 asked for a 2014 salary of $2.425 million while the team offered $1.4 million.
Bastardo, who made $1.4 million in 2013, asked for $2.5 million and the team offered $1.675 million.
Our own Blogger Emeritus Matt Swartz, in his work for MLBTR.com put his estimated figured for Revere at $1.5 million and at $2.0 million for Bastardo.
The Phillies have gone to arbitration just once in the last decade, losing in 2008 when Ryan Howard received a then record for a first time eligible player. They are notorious for avoiding arbitration, but that could change this season, after hiring Scott Freedman to work with their 'analytics' department:. Freedman came as most know, from the comissioners office where he specialized in arbitration.
When you take that information, and also factor in the PED suspension for Bastardo, along with the fact that Revere started just 75 games last season after missing the entire second half of the season and is asking for close to a $2.0 million dollar raise, it's not difficult to see a situation where the team decides to roll the dice with one, if not both players here.
And if you assume settlement for both players is around the midpoint, or $1.9 million for Revere and $2.1 million for Bastardo, the teams total payout is $4.0 mm. However, if they go to arbitration with both:
Both Players win: 4.925 million
Bastardo Win/Revere Loss: 3.9 million
Bastardo loss/Revere Win: $4.1 million
Both Players lose: $3.075 million
If they settled with one and lost with the other they would end up paying out roughly $4.5 million
If they settled with one and won the other case? they likely pay out in the neighborhood of $3.5 million
So to recap all of that, the ONLY WAY the Phillies would pay out more than a total of $4 million dollars combined is if BOTH players won (unlikely based on the circumstances) or if they settled with one and the other player WON (more likely)
So if the Phillies think they have a strong enough case with one or both players here, unless they feel they really can't win, or a player is willing to settle much closer to the Phillies number than the midpoint, or BOTH players are willing to settle, going to arbitration with both players is likely the smartest move from purely a dollars and cents point of view.
For that reason, I expect one of these cases, probably Revere, to end up going to arbitration unless a long term deal is worked out.
The rub on this of course is that the reason why teams tend to avoid arbitration stems from the concept itself. You basically sit across a room from your player and tell a mediator all the reasons why he's not worth what he thinks he is. In many instances this can lead towards ill feelings and players become unwilling to work out extensions later. Or worse, you win the first year, the player has a breakout second year, and you're screwed.
In other instances, it just gets into a players head. Neither situation is good. So that's why teams tend to settle.
If it's me, and I'm running the team, I probably settle at the midpoint with Revere as a goodwill gesture, and go to arbitration with Bastardo, and my argument is simple.
He was suspended for PED's and we simply don't feel that warrants a significant raise. I'm not sure how Tony No Dad can get a bad taste from that. It is what it is.
That said, I fully expect the Philllies to pinch pennies here and do the opposite and go to hearing with Ben Revere.
And just so you'll feel better today here's a fun fact.
Should Revere WIN his arbitration case, the combined total salaries of Revere, Byrd, Mayberry, Brown and Darin Ruf/Cesar Hernandez, otherwise known as your expected 5 Phillies outfielders for 2014 will total almost $13,000,000 to the dollar.
Or roughly the same salary Joanathan Papelbon will make in 2014.
Happy weekend everyone.