Phillies Stat Notes: Same [Stats], Different Year

Through the first 38 games, the 2014 Phillies look remarkably like the Phillies of 2013.

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Contents

  • NL Standings and team stats
  • Phillies Team Stats vs. 2013 and vs. the Reds
  • Individual Stats: Hitters and Pitchers
  • Upcoming Milestones
NL Standings and Team Stats

The Reds haven't won as many games as their run differential would indicate, thanks to a 6-12 record in 1-run games. So while Cincinnati's record is almost identical to that of the Phillies, they are likely a much better team. Any success the Reds have had this year has been due to run prevention. They've allowed the second fewest runs in the NL while scoring near the bottom, despite playing half their games in a great hitter's park.

Johnny Cueto in particular has a MLB-leading 1.25 ERA through 9 starts.

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Phillies Team Stats vs. 2013 and vs. the Reds

Hitting

The 2014 Phils through 38 games look almost identical to the 2013 version:

- Winning percentage within 1%: .447 vs. .451
- Pythagorean W% also within 1%: .405 vs. .408
- Runs scored per game within 1%: 3.79 vs. 3.77
- Runs allowed per game within 1%: 4.68 vs. 4.62

Going a level deeper, there are differences in how they're scoring those runs: as John Stolnis noted yesterday, they are hitting far fewer home runs this year (down 24%) than last year. On the other hand walks are way up (+17%), although it's been an up-and-down affair:

first 13 games: 10.3% - 1st in the NL
next 13 games: 4.8% - 15th in the NL
last 12 games: 9.2% - 1st in the NL

But in the end, the results in terms of runs scored have been almost identical.

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The graph below shows how the three main components of the Phillies' hitting (batting average, power, and walks) have changed since the start of the season. Also shown is BABIP, a key determinant for batting average. The dotted lines are the NL averages for each stat.

BABIP has fallen to the league average, and along with that, so has Batting Average. Power has been below average virtually all year, and while walks plummeted after an early spike, they may be stabilizing around the league-average mark.

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Phillies hitters at Fangraphs
Reds hitters at Fangraphs

Pitching and Defense

The Reds' story so far has been run prevention, and most of that seems to be attributable to their fielding.

At only 3.44 per game, they have allowed the second fewest runs in the NL, albeit far behind the league-leading Braves' 3.08.

Their pitching has been very good (at least on the surface), with the 6th best ERA in the NL, despite playing in a hitter's park.

But their defense has been excellent. First, while errors are an unreliable indicator, they have only made 12 so far, while other teams range from 19 to 36 (Phils have made 23), meaning that only 3 of the runs they've allowed 3 unearned runs all year (all other NL teams range from 8 to 24; the Phils have allowed 20).

And their defense also appears to be a big reason that the ERA is as low as its. Focusing on their fielding-independent pitching stats, they rank 10th in tERA, 11th in SIERA, 11th in xFIP, and 14th (!) in FIP. At 0.83, the difference between their ERA and their FIP is by far the highest in the league. As a sanity check, their UZR of 16 runs better than average translates to about 0.41 runs per game.

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Phillies pitchers at Fangraphs
Reds pitchers at Fangraphs

Individual Stats

Hitters

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Milestones

Recent milestones and those that may be reached over the next week or so...

Jimmy Rollins -- Phillies Hits Record

Rollins' hit on Wednesday tied Ed Delahanty for third most hits in Phillies history. For Delahanty's career total, this assumes the 2,211 number that the Phillies used on their broadcast, instead of the other numbers that are publicly available:

mlb.com: 2,213
fangraphs.com: 2,213
baseball-reference.com: 2,214
Phillies Media Guide: 2,207

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Jimmy Rollins -- Other

  • The same hit that tied Delahanty for 3rd also gave him 3,500 total bases for his career. He joins Schmidt as the only Phillies with 3,500+, and also becomes the 15th active player with that many. Rollins also became just the 9th shortstop in MLB history with 3,500 or more. Only two other shortstops in history had 3,500 by their age 35 season: Cal Ripken Jr, and Derek Jeter.
  • Rollins' next home run will tie Dick Allen for 9th most in Phils history at 204.
  • His next time caught stealing will tie him with Schmidt for 2nd most on the Phillies list at 92. Larry Bowa holds the team record with 94. Caught stealing stats have been kept since 1951.

Chase Utley

  • Utley's next run scored (22 total) will tie Billy Hamilton for 11th on the Phillies list at 874.
  • His next Sacrifice Fly (3rd of the year) ties Bobby Abreu for 2nd all-time for the Phillies at 54, leaving him behind only Mike Schmidt (108). Sac Flies were tracked at various times before, but have only been recorded continuously since 1954.

Cole Hamels

  • Bastardo and company made it 6 failed attempts at win #100 for Hamels. In those 6 starts since winning #99 last September, Hamels is 0-3, with 3 no decisions, a 5.40 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9, and a very respectable 3.14 FIP. He makes his 7th try at #100 on Saturday.

A.J. Burnett

  • Burnett's next win will be the 150th of his career, making him the 5th active pitcher with 150+. Cliff Lee is tied for 6th among active pitchers, with 142.

Also, the post on Utley and HBPs was my 300th. That feels like a lot, but it pales in comparison to the numbers put up by Wet Luzinski (340), Liz Roscher (431), David S. Cohen (750), or dajafi (1,168), not to mention former blog lord Peter Lyons (2,427). 

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For reference:

Phillies All-time hitting leaders
Phillies All-time pitching leaders

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