Phillies Stat Notes: Not-Dead-Yet Phils Meet Surging Cards

The Phils have won 7 of 9 to pull ahead of the last-place Mets, and try to keep rolling in St. Louis, where they'll meet a Cardinals teams that has won 8 of their last 10.

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Contents

  • NL Standings and team stats
  • Phillies Team Stats vs. 2013 and vs. the Cardinals
  • Individual Stats
  • Today in Phillies History
  • Upcoming Milestones
NL Standings and Team Stats

Phillies
Starting with their 3-game sweep against the lowly Padres, the Phils have now won 7 of their last 9, to move to 6 games under .500 at 32-38. In each of the last two years, they were at 33-37 at this point in the season.

Cardinals
As recently as June 6th, the Cards were sitting at 31-31, but have since won 8 of 10, including a 5-game winning streak that was snapped by the Mets and Bartolo Colon yesterday.

They are now 3 1/2 games behind Milwaukee, but would get one of the two wildcard spots if the season ended today, along with LA:

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Phillies Team Stats vs. 2013 and vs. the Cardinals

Hitting

Phillies
Ryan Howard's OBP (.315) and OPS (.742) are still anemic, but at least he is on pace for 30 HR and 109 RBIs (granted, these always look better after a good series). However that assumes that he remains healthy the entire season, something he wasn't able to do in 2010 or 2011, and of course not 2013.

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Other projections (simply extrapolating 70-game stats to 162 games):

Marlon Byrd: 25 HR, 97 RBI, 44 doubles

Ben Revere: 46 SB, 14 walks
- 46 steals would be the second highest total by a Phillie in 29 years (behind Rollins' 47 in 2008), since Juan Samuel's 53 in 1985. By the way, in 1984, the Phils had 120 from their top two base stealers: Samuel 72, and Von Hayes 48.
- 14 walks would be second lowest total in team history for anyone with 500+ plate appearances. Mariano Duncan holds that "distinction" with 12 in 1993, when he tried to single-handedly bring the team's walk total back to average.

Jimmy Rollins: 83 walks, 116 Ks
- Both would be career highs, surpassing 62 walks (2012), and 113 Ks (2003).

Cardinals
The Cards have less power than the Phillies, but get on base at a somewhat better rate, .319 to .309.

Overall however the two offenses are fairly similar: while St. Louis has the slightly better wOBA (and better wRC+, accounting for its home park), they are also 3rd from the bottom in the NL in runs scored per game.

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Phillies hitters at Fangraphs
Cardinals hitters at Fangraphs

Pitching and Defense

Cardinals

St. Louis has one of the best staffs in the league, which, combined with their excellent fielding, means they're allowing the fewest runs in the NL. xFIP doesn't like them as much because much of their success comes from suppressing home runs, and their 7.1% HR/FB rate is the lowest in the league. However while there may be some luck to that, their rate has tended to be on the low side the last few years (it was 2nd lowest last year, at 8.5%).

The Phils will start the series against the back end of the Cards' rotation, before it gets even tougher over the weekend:

Thu: David Buchanan vs. Shelby Miller (RHP)
Fri: A.J. Burnett vs. Jaime Garcia (LHP)
Sat: Cole Hamels vs. Adam Wainwright (RHP)
Sun: Kyle Kendrick vs. Michael Wacha (RHP)

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Phillies pitchers at Fangraphs
Cardinals pitchers at Fangraphs

Individual Stats

Hitters

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OPS Progression

Dom Brown has pulled his OPS over .600 for the first time since May 5th. Utley continues sliding, and the bench has looked better lately thanks to Brignac and Mayberry:

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Today In Phillies History

1927: Phillies pitcher Jack Scott pitches both games of a double-header in Cincinnati and goes the distance in both. He beat the Reds 3-1 in the first game, but lost 3-0 in the nightcap. No pitcher has recorded two complete games in the majors in a single day since.

1970: In the only face off between Hall-of-Famers Jim Bunning and Tom Seaver, Seaver earns the win while fanning 11 and Bunning retires only two batters while allowing 7 runs.

1971: Larry Bowa was credited with 2 stolen bases on a single play. Playing the Mets in the top of the 14th, Bowa and Oscar Gamble attempt a double steal. Bowa makes it to third, while Gamble is caught in a rundown. Bowa then advances home, scoring and drawing a throw that allows Gamble to reach second safely.

2000: Randy Wolf allows a solo home run to Quilvio Veras, the last in a team-record 12 straight starts in which he yielded a long ball.

Yesterday (June 18)

1927: In a game at Wrigley Field, Phillies Jimmie Wilson and Fresco Thompson steal home in the same inning (the 8th). Both steals came on the front end of double-steals. The Phillies scored six runs in the inning, earning a 7-2 victory.

1982: Catcher Bo Diaz steals home on the back end of a double-steal, as the Phillies beat Pittsburgh, 8-3.

1987: Before a game in Chicago, the Phillies fired manager John Felske and replaced him with coach Lee Elia, a former Cubs skipper and Philadelphia native. Felske had a 190-194 record over three seasons leading the Phils.

1989: Traded Steve Bedrosian and a player to be named to San Francisco for Terry Mulholland, Dennis Cook and Charlie Hayes

1989: Traded Juan Samuel to New York (NL) for Lenny Dykstra, Roger McDowell, and a player to be named

Debuts:

1948: Robin Roberts
1960: Dallas Green
1977: Bake McBride

Tomorrow (June 20)

1883: Boston beats the Phils 29-4, the most runs scored against the Phils

1967: Larry Jackson throws a 1-hit victory over the Mets. It's his 18th straight win over New York, a streak that dates to the first game the Mets ever played. The only hit he gave up was a double by Tommy Davis in the second.

1989: Terry Mulholland, Lenny Dykstra, and Roger McDowell debut with the Phillies.

1997: Bill Giles announces his resignation as team president and elevates his protege David Montgomery to the post. Giles becomes the team's chairman.

And for all the Paul Bako fans, the Phillies signed him to a minor league deal 5 years ago yesterday (6/18/09), and he turns 42 tomorrow.

Source: Broad and Pattison

Milestones

Milestones by Phillies players that may be reached over the next week...

Jimmy Rollins

  • On Tuesday Rollins got on base for the 3000th time in his career. He became the 3rd Phillie to do that, joining Schmidt (3820) and Richie Asburn (3202). He'll likely pass Ashburn by next year if he is still here, but Schmidt is out of reach. Rollins is also the 12th active player with 3000+ times on base.
  • When Rollins was caught stealing on Monday, he tied Schmidt for 2nd most on the Phillies list at 92. Larry Bowa holds the team record with 94. Caught stealing stats have been kept since 1951.
  • Seven more at bats (262 this year), will tie Rollins with Mike Schmidt for most in Phillies history.
  • With three more strikeouts (53 on the year), he will tie Greg Luzinski for 4th in team history, at 1098.
  • According to every publicly available source (fangraphsbb-refmlb.com), Ed Delahanty stole 411 bases with the Phillies, and Rollins passed him to move into second place in franchise history in July of last year. But apparently, according to the Elias Sports Bureau (the official source of stats for MLB), Delahanty had 438 stolen bases while with the Phils, so if the broadcast team makes mention of Rollins being close to catching Delahanty, that's why. Rollins needs two more (13 total this year) to tie Elias' total for Delahanty of 438. That will leave him behind only the nineteen century's Sliding Billy Hamilton and his 508 steals (amassed under different rules, including awarding stolen bases for taking an extra base).

Chase Utley

  • Utley's next run scored (39th this year) will tie Bobby Abreu and Del Ennis for 9th in Phils history at 891. Seven more (46) will tie Sherry Magee for 8th, with 898.
  • His next home run (6th this year) will tie Greg Luzinski for 6th most in team history at 223.
  • Two more HBPs (9 total this year) will tie Utley with Kid Elberfeld for 17th most all-time, at 165. Derek Jeter is 16th (166), and Alex Rodriguez 15th (169). Elberfeld was a turn of the century infielder who first came up with the Phillies (his SABR bio).

Ryan Howard

  • Yesterday Howard became the 49th player in history (and the 5th active one) to be intentionally walked 150 times. Mike Schmidt at 201 is the only other Phillie with 150+.
  • Two more walks (31 total -- intentional or not) will tie Howard with Von Hayes for 9th in Phillies history, at 619.
  • Thirteen more total bases (124 this year) will tie Bobby Abreu for 9th most in that category, with 2491.
  • Ten more strikeouts (99 total) will give Howard 1500 for his career, making him the 57th player all time, and 10th active player with 1500+. Schmidt is the only other Phillie with 1500+, and he's at 1883. Howard has a good chance to pass him by the last year of his contract in 2016. He is projected to K a  total of 206 times this year, if he stays healthy, meaning he would need to average only 139 per year in 2015-16 to pass Schmidt.

Cole Hamels

  • Hamels' six strikeouts on Monday tied Chris Short for third in Phillies history at 1585, behind only Steve Carlton (3031) and Robin Roberts (1871).
  • His scoreless streak is now at 23 2/3 innings, the second longest of his career. He had a 25-inning streak in 2010.

A.J. Burnett

  • Two more walks (45 total) will make Burnett the only active pitcher with 1000 in his career.

Jonathan Papelbon

  • Papelbon's next save (17th this year) will tie Doug Jones for 23rd most all-time, at 303.

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For reference:

Phillies All-time hitting leaders
Phillies All-time pitching leaders

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