Phillies Stat Notes: Phreephalling, Rollins 7 hits away

The Phils have lost 20 of their last 29, and look to stop the freefall against the up-and-down Reds. Jimmy Rollins is now only 7 hits from tying Mike Schmidt's franchise hits record, while Cole Hamels has to beat the tough Johnny Cueto if he is to get his 101st career win and tie Curt Schilling for 6th in Phillies history.

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Contents

  • NL Standings and team stats
  • Phillies Team Stats vs. 2013 and vs. the Reds
  • Individual Stats
  • Today in Phillies History
  • Upcoming Milestones
NL Standings and Team Stats

The plunge continues:

- 6 losses in a row
- 9-20 record since May 4th, when they were 15-14
- 24-34 record is now tied with Arizona for 2nd worst record in the NL
- and only 1/2 game ahead of the NL-worst Cubs
- worst run differential in the NL (-54)
- worst pythagorean projection in the NL

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Phillies Team Stats vs. 2013 and vs. the Reds

Hitting

Phillies
The Phils are last in the NL in fWAR by position players, and both hitting and fielding are contributing:

12th in hitting, based on wRC+ (86), ahead of only the Reds (84), Cubs (80), and Padres (79)
14th in fielding, ahead of only the Pirates.

Reds
Cincinnati is 8th in fWAR, thanks to a defense that is arguably the best in the NL, and which makes up for their near-worst hitting.

The Phillies and Reds have about the same Runs vs. average from their offense (Reds -40, Phils -39). However the Reds make up most of that shortfall with 37 runs above average from their defense, while the Phillies' defense puts them an additional 7 runs below average.

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Phillies hitters at Fangraphs
Reds hitters at Fangraphs

Pitching and Defense

Phillies
The Phils have gotten 3.0 fWAR from their pitching (11th in the NL), and almost all of that from the starters, as the Total row below shows. The starting rotation has had its ups and downs (and more recently, primarily downs) but have generally been about average overall, the bullpen has gone from the worst in the league in April, to one of the best (by fWAR, an admittedly crude measure for relievers) in May.

Over their last 13 games, the starters have had a 5.24 ERA, and have produced only 3 quality starts. They've only had 1 quality start in the last week (Cole Hamels' start on Sunday).

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Reds

Reds pitching has been somewhat below average overall, but their excellent fielding has pushed their ERA to 8th in the NL, and with very few unearned runs allowed, they've allowed the 5th fewest runs in the league.

For the weekend series, the Phils will be facing:

Today: Johnny Cueto, 1.68 ERA, 2.84 FIP, 2.89 xFIP, and 2.1 WAR
Sat: Alfredo Simon, 3.03 ERA, 4.56 FIP, 4.27 xFIP, and 0.2 WAR
Sun: Homer Bailey, 4.99 ERA, 4.33 FIP, 3.53 xFIP, and 0.3 WAR

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Phillies pitchers at Fangraphs
Reds pitchers at Fangraphs

Individual Stats

Hitters

John Mayberry Jr is now the team leader in OPS, by hitting .370/.433/.815 since May 8th (27 PAs), with 3 doubles and 3 home runs.

It's tough to decide what's more amazing: that Dom Brown has a .567 OPS in early June, or that there have been four players with substantial playing time who are even worse. Brown's modest 6-game hitting streak (totaling 6 hits) came to an end last night.

In his 7 games since May 29th, Chase Utley is 5 for 31, hitting .161/.257/.194 (.451 OPS), dropping his OPS from .937 to .868.

Marlon Byrd, Jimmy Rollins, and Ryan Howard have also been ice cold, with Carlos Ruiz the only regular showing any signs of life.

Reid Brignac now has played enough to appear on this list. In the 3+ seasons since 2011, Brignac has 68 plate appearances versus lefties (including 5 this year) without an extra base hit, hitting .161/.212/.161 (.373 OPS). Lest you think he hits righties then, not so much: .195/.232/.243 (.475 OPS) since 2011. And this is the player getting the majority of the playing time at third base while Cody Asche's hamstring heals.

His almost respectable .627 OPS this year? Driven by a 31.6% line drive rate and .421 BABIP. With career rates of 21.6% and .290, respectively, the Phillies have been lucky to get as much as they have so far, because it's bound to regress soon.

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Today In Phillies History

Happy Birthday Ethan Martin, who turns 25 today.

Also:

1962: The Phillies win both ends of a double-header to finish a sweep of the Mets, handing them their 17th straight loss, a major-league record.

1965: Johnny Callison hit 3 homers in a game for the second time in his career, leading the Phillies to a 10-9 win over Chicago

1972: In the midst of a streak of 18 losses in 19 games, the Phillies tried to change their luck with "Turn it Around Day." The lineup was announced in reverse order, last names first. The seventh inning strech took place in the third inning. The scoreboard welcomed groups not in attendance. Ushers wore their hats backwards with their nametags on their backs. It didn't help, as the team dropped a 4-3 decision to Houston.

1990: Von Hayes ties a team and National League record with 5 walks in a game against St. Louis

Yesterday (June 5)

1915: Grover Cleveland Alexander threw a one-hitter in a 3-0 victory against St. Louis. Artie Butler's bloop single with two out in the ninth inning was his team's only hit.

1948: Richie Ashburn ties a rookie record by getting a hit in his 23rd consecutive game to help the Phils beat Chicago 6-5.

1979: Steve Carlton beat the Astros 8-0 with a 1-hitter at the Astrodome. Jeff Leonard had the only hit with a single to lead off the 7th.

Tomorrow (June 7)

1950: Richie Ashburn starts the game in center field -- the first game of a streak that lasted 730 games, fifth longest in National League history. The streak ended when a spring training injury prevented him from starting the 1955 season.

1983: Steve Carlton passes Nolan Ryan to take the all-time strikeout lead, fanning six for a career total of 3,526. The two will trade the lead for the next year, until Ryan takes it for good in September 1984.

1988: Team president Bill Giles fires GM Woody Woodward after only 7 months on the job.

2000: Pete Zamora throws a 7-inning perfect game at AA-Reading, and wins 6-0.

Source: Broad and Pattison

Milestones

Recent milestones and those that may be reached over the next week or so.
(For reference, Phillies' all-time top ten lists published on Monday: here)

Jimmy Rollins -- Phillies Hits Record

Rollins is now 7 hits away from tying Mike Schmidt's franchise hits record, and he should reach it next week, during the upcoming homestand. There is not a lot of slack in the schedule for him to pass Schmidt at home.

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Jimmy Rollins -- Other

  • The next time he is caught stealing (his 3rd this year), he will tie Schmidt for 2nd most on the Phillies list at 92. Larry Bowa holds the team record with 94. Caught stealing stats have been kept since 1951.

Chase Utley

  • His next Sacrifice Fly (3rd of the year) will tie Bobby Abreu for 2nd all-time for the Phillies at 54, leaving him behind only Mike Schmidt (108). Sac Flies were tracked at various times before, but have only been recorded continuously since 1954.
  • Three more HBPs (9 total this year) will tie Utley with Kid Elberfeld for 17th most all-time, at 165. Derek Jeter is 16th (166), and Alex Rodriguez 15th (169). Elberfeld was a turn of the century infielder who first came up with the Phillies. His SABR bio, which starts:

Kid Elberfeld, called "the dirtiest, scrappiest, most pestiferous, most rantankerous [sic], most rambunctious ball player that ever stood on spikes"

Ryan Howard

  • Howard needs 4 more total bases (96 on the year) to get into the top 10 in Phillies history, by tying Sherry Magee at 2463.
  • Two more intentional walks (7 total) will make him the 49th player in history, and only the 5th active player, with 150 or more. Mike Schmidt at 201 is the only other Phillies with 150+.

Cole Hamels

  • Hamels tries again for his 101st career win tonight, which will tie Schillling for 6th most in Phils history, leaving him behind only Carlton (241), Roberts (234), Alexander (190), Short (132), and Simmons (115).
  • With 11 more innings (62 2/3 total), he will also tie Schilling for 8th most innings pitched.

Jonathan Papelbon

  • Papelbon's next save (14th) will be the 300th of his career, and will tie Bruce Sutter and Jason Isringhausen for 24th most all-time. He would become the 6th pitcher in history with 300 saves by his age 33 season.

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For reference:

- Phillies All-time hitting leaders
- Phillies All-time pitching leaders

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