FanPost

Andy MacPhail in Baltimore

When Andy MacPhail took over the 2007 Orioles the team was on its way to a 69-93 season. They had a $93 million payroll, 14th in the league. Before he arrived the Orioles often made splashy big money free agent signings like Javy Lopez and Miguel Tejada. They hadn’t done the team a lot of good since 2007 was their 10th straight losing year. The roster he inherited was mostly aging players. Six of his nine starting hitters were 30 or older.

After the season he traded Eric Bedard to Seattle in a deal that netted him Chris Tillman and Adam Jones. He re-signed Kevin Millar and let Corey Patterson walk as a free agent. He inherited deals for Melvin Mora, Aubrey Huff, and Jay Payton. He got Miguel Tejada’s big contract off the books by trading him to Houston for five players, the most notable of whom was 30 year old platoon outfielder Luke Scott. He gave Brian Roberts a 2 year $14.3 million extension for his last arbitration year and his first free agent year.

The Orioles had a number of younger pitchers ready for the big leagues. Unfortunately, Daniel Cabrera, Garrett Olson, Brian Bass, Adam Loewen, Brian Burnes, Radhames Liz, and Chris Waters would all end up being busts.

Because the Orioles didn’t add anyone the team’s payroll dropped to $67 million, 19th in the league. They won 68 games in 2008.

In the off-season he signed Koji Uehara from Japan for 2 years and $10 million, César Izturis to 2 years and $5 million and a few minor players to 1 year deals. He traded Ramon Hernandez, his starting catcher, to Cincinnati for Ryan Freel. Freel had 20 ABs for Baltimore before he was traded. Trading Hernandez opened a spot for Matt Wieters. Nolan Reimold and Wieters joined Nick Markakis and Adam Jones as part of the team’s young core.

MacPhail gave Roberts a 4 year $40 million extension and 6 years and $66 million to Markakis. Roberts managed only 1.0 bWAR during his 4 year extension. Markakis had a 7.4 bWAR in the year before the extension. During the 6 years of the extension he had 11.5 bWAR, an average under 2.0 per season.

They had a new group of young pitchers but Brad Bergesen, Jason Berken, and David Hernández worked out as well as the 2008 crop. Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz joined the rotation later in the year. Tillman struggled from 2009-2011 and spent a lot of time in the minors before breaking out in 2012. Matusz was also a bust as a starter but has pitched well as a reliever. The 2009 Orioles also had a $67 million payroll, also 19th in the league. They won only 64 games.

In 2010 MacPhail finally got Aubrey Huff, Danys Baez, and Jamie Walker off his books. He traded for the expensive aging Kevin Millwood and Julio Lugo. Both had one year left on big contracts. He only got $3 million from Texas in the Millwood deal. So he had to pay him $12 million. That was a hefty price for a 35 year old starter. The Cardinals paid $8.6 of the $9 million left on Lugo’s deal. He signed now free agent Miguel Tejada to a 1 year $6 million deal. He also made his biggest free agent deal, signing Mike González to a 2 year $12 million deal. González blew 2 saves in the team’s first 4 games and was demoted. The Orioles would get 2 saves for their $12 million.

The Orioles backed Millwood with veteran Jeremy Guthrie, Tillman, Matusz, and rookie Jake Arrieta. Arrieta, like so many Oriole youngsters before him, was a bust for the Orioles. We all know how he pitched after he was traded to the Cubs.

The 2010 Orioles had a $74 million payroll, 23rd in the league, and finished with 66 wins.

For 2011 MacPhail added Vlad Guerrero and Derrek Lee, two veterans on their last legs. Their salary, a combined $15 million, wasn’t that much but was a bit pricey for a low budget team. This would be the final year for both. The payroll was up a bit, going from $74 million to $86 million.

MacPhail made his first significant trade in 3 years and he actually made three of them. J.J. Hardy had been a disappointment in his one year in Minnesota and was an impending free agent. The Twins got little in return. Hardy would hit very well the next few years and win three Gold Gloves. MacPhail was able to trade two of his failed young pitchers to Arizona for Mark Reynolds. Reynolds was known for his power, poor defense, and strikeouts. He was coming off a season where he hit .198. MacPhail was buying low.

At mid-season he traded Koji Uehara to Texas for Chris Davis and Tommy Hunter. Davis would blossom after MacPhail left.

Zach Britton was the latest in a long line of young Oriole starters. Like most of those before him he was a bust as a starter. He’s had success as a closer, however. The 2011 Orioles won 69 games. So none of MacPhail’s 4 Oriole teams won more 70 games. MacPhail retired after 2011 season.

The 2012 Orioles won 93 games. Most of the biggest offensive contributors were obtained while MacPhail was there but three members of the 2012 rotation, Wei-Yin Chen, Jason Hammel, and Miguel Gonzalez were acquired after he left.

Andy MacPhail’s Oriole tenure was his least successful of his pre-Philadelphia stops, although some credit MacPhail for the success after he left.

The payroll stayed fairly consistently low while there. Did that come from ownership? Was Angelos unwilling to go after free agents due to past busts or was MacPhail? Which ever it was the team only signed patch filling free agents to low one or two year deals. MacPhail was burned by the two big contracts he gave to homegrown players and could’ve been hesitant to sign or trade for expensive players. Or maybe it was payroll restrictions.He may have taken the philosophy that it didn’t make sense to spend money on players while the team was bad. Since they never got good during his entire tenure they didn’t alter that strategy.

MacPhail was fairly inactive on the trade front. As with free agency he just touched the edges of the team. They didn’t trade for a regular or starting pitcher under 30 between acquiring Adam Jones and Luke Scott after the 2007 season and J.J. Hardy and Mark Reynolds after the 2010 season. I can understand not signing high priced free agents due to budget restrictions and the riskiness of a player busting but I can’t figure out why the Orioles sat on their hands in the trade market for so long. It’s almost as if he decided before the 2008 season that they’d just let the internal players develop and then before the 2011 season they finally concluded that strategy didn't produce players and made moves.

How much of MacPhail’s Oriole tenure applies to the Phillies is anybody’s guess. You could see his discounting free agency now and assume he’ll only do the same small patches here. He could wait for this Phillies team to get good. And if, like the Orioles, they never do, he won’t sign free agents.

Or he could be more active in free agency because they’ll have more money than Baltimore.

The Phillies have Major and Minor League solutions at virtually every position. They could do what MacPhail seemingly did in Baltimore, just let these players play and see what happens. Or they could trade these young players for other young players. A.J. Preller last year traded away both of his catchers and traded for two new catchers and snagged other younger players like Will Myers.

Two low budget teams were in the World Series. The Orioles were also a low budget team. The Orioles had 14 straight losing seasons before breaking through. The Royals had 9. The Mets had 6. One thing that these successful low budget teams have in common is a lot of years of losing before becoming winners. High budget franchises like the Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, and Cardinals haven’t had such long down periods. Emulating the Royals and Mets low budget build through the draft philosophies could mean it’s another 4-5 years before the Phillies are a winning team again.

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