FanPost

The most likely Phillies to be traded aren't who you think

The Phillies are awful and they are stuck in the mud for probably another 17 days. Teams have shown no willingness to make trades and the lack of sellers is probably hurting the market. Teams are sure more better players will be available and they’ll get the player they want for less. They hope that the Phillies get so anxious to deal they’ll drop their price. After all, they can wait.

Last season the trade market was very different. Players like Justin Masterson, 5.51 ERA, and Kendrys Morales, .584 OPS, were traded. And they weren’t alone. The Yankees dealt for Brandon McCarthy, Chase Headley, Stephen Drew, and Martin Prado. What these players had in common were that they were playing poorly, but they were having bad seasons. So they were available for marginal players. Yes, there were some high value players traded but even some of hem were traded for a non-traditional return. The Red Sox traded Jon Lester and John Lackey for Major Leaguers the other teams considered expendable. The market was so different that it caught Ruben Amaro by surprise because teams weren’t willing to step up.

It looks like this’ll continue year since players who were DFA seem to be getting picked up at a greater rate. Sure, the guy probably isn’t any good but he’s available for nothing.

This is good news/bad news for the Phillies. The bad news is that teams might not step up for the Phillies’ most desirable players, Hamels, Papelbon, and Revere. It’s possible that if the Brewers are willing to take a low return for Gerardo Parra, Ben Revere will be less desirable despite having 2 years of team control after this year. The Phillies might end up holding onto Hamels and Revere as a result. I think Papelbon has been so vocal about wanting out that the Phillies might sell him for mediocre return.

On the other hand, the Phillies have several players who fit the dumpster diving profile. The reason why Kevin Correia and Sean O’Sullivan had no value is because they had no recent success. Ryan Howard, Carlos Ruiz, and Chad Billingsley, on the other hand, have had some success. Of course, it’s dumpster diving. So the price will be low. "Ruben, I’ll trade for Howard if you pick up $43 million and are willing to take a guy like James Ramsey (Masterson) or Zach Walters (Asdrubal Cabrera)." If the Phillies are willing to get the type of return they got for John Mayberry, even Dom Brown is tradeable. I don’t know if the Phillies will be motivated but they should be for these four and Jeff Francoeur.

The Phillies have been very active in August in the last few years. At that point teams know they have no alternatives. If you need a Roberto Hernandez or Joe Blanton, you make the deal. Amaro also realized that the August offer was the only one he’d get for impending free agents.

What’s Next

The Phillies announced their rotation after the break will begin with Morgan, Billingsley, and Hamels. Since he hasn’t been sent down I assume Buchanan will pitch Monday. Who’s the 5th starter? I doubt it’ll be Aaron Harang since the way Amaro talked about him he’s not coing back soon. It could be Jerome Williams but Williams got clobbered in low A on Sunday. I don’t see him developing trade value and he could be released. That means it’ll be either Severino Gonzalez or Aaron Nola. Gonzalez will be eligible to come back then.

Expect them to play Ruiz (8 for his last 22 with 2 homers), Howard, and the others until they are traded. If they are still on the team August 1 the Phillies could bench or release them. I maintain that MacPhail won’t want to be the one cutting heroes of the 2008 team. I think the Phillies won’t be recalling players like Aaron Altherr until they see if they can trade Brown, Revere, or Frenchy.