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Dave Zirin on Sports Blogging...

Apparently sportswriter Buzz Bissinger said some pretty nasty stuff to blogger Will Leitch from www.deadspin.com on Bob Costas' show on HBO.

Well, political sportswriter Dave Zirin has chimed in on the Sportswriters vs. Bloggers debate...and he is on our side. 

Some of you may remember Bill Conlin's little tirade back in November that really underscored the worries of Sportswriters in a world where information is flowing more democratically than it ever has before.

 

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Pitching

Well heading into last offseason, our major focus was pitching...  So how'd we do overall?  Closer - Lidge...  hasn't blown a save or given up a earned run yet...  sounds good to me.  Bullpen in general - we're actually getting really good production out of our bullpen this year.  Romero has performed well, Gordon continues to look sharp.  Seanez is actually turning out to be a good pick up...  Madson - ehhhh and Condrey not so much either...  Hopefully along the lines we'll pull up another lefty and move Clay back down.  Now, the starters...  ugh...  well let's just say it's not the best sign when Gordon and Romero have more wins than four of our starters.  It's actually getting to the point where I'm comfortable in the 9th inning with a one run lead seeing Lidge come out, rather than, "Oh god please, let them hold on..."  Also, my view used to be, "Well, if [insert starters' name] can go 6 or 7, hopefully we build up a decent lead and the bullpen only gives up a run or two and we hang on..."  It's really getting to the point where my thinking is now, "Jesus, [starter], make it through 6, keep it close and give it to the pen.  Let them actually stop the bleeding and let's get the bats going..." 

I know this would look alot different if we were scoring earlier in the game, but we're not.  I think overall, our starters need to shape up a little here...  Any recent news on Benson?

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35 game checkup on the Lidge trade

was it worth it?  I feel like there are five ways to look at this:

1) Lidge's worth as a closer

2) Myers' worth as a starter

3) Worth of Bruntlett

4) The cost of not having Bourn

5) Cost of not having Geary

 

So. 

Is  1+2+3 > 4+5?

 

 

I know its only 35 games in.  I know lidge has not had any opportunities to prove his worth in "clutch" situations.  I know that bourn is 25 and brad is 31.  I know that lidge is getting 6.4 mil and bourn is getting .4 mil.  Still though, it's hard not to love how this is turning out.

 

 

 

bonus question!

who has more hits, Ryan Howard or Micah Owings?

 

 

 

 

 

 

(okay, fine... but did you hesitate?)

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What's Moyer worth?

If you were Ruben Amaro Jr., would (that is, should) you sign a league-average pitcher to a multi-year deal for 2009+?  And would it make a difference if that pitcher was currently 45 years old?  

Moyer is, so far this year, almost the definition of a league-average pitcher.  His ERA is 4.15 in a league with a 4.34 average; his WHIP is 1.59.  He's throw at least 199 innings in each of the last seven seasons.  Watching him last night, I found myself appreciating how slender and flexible he is - I hope to match that when I'm 45 - and admiring his approach at the plate.  Set aside his two hits, although they were pretty tasty; focus on that bunt.  How rare is it to see a Phillies pitcher who regularly lays down good bunts? 

Anyway, the point is, he looks like he could keep this up for another three or four years.  Throwing that 76-MPH slop up there can't be taxing his arm too much.  The guy I saw last night looked like a good candidate to be throwing 175+ innings of league-average ball in 2010.

So, how crazy would it be to offer a multi-year deal to a guy who'd be 46 in the first year?  That's insane, right - baseball malpractice?  I'm just posting this here because I caught myself thinking that it might not be insane, and that we could actually regret <i>not</i> resigning Moyer next year, a la Lohse.

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19-14

Is a .575 winning percentage.  Looking back and ignoring the first week of each season, this is the best winning percentage the Phillies have had since May 14, 2006 when they were flying high with a 22-15 record for a .594 winning percentage.

The Phils had just finished off a sweep of the Reds to put an exclamation mark on a nice 2 weeks where they went 13-1.  At the end of the streak, the middle of the lineup consisted of 5 hitters with an OPS of .900 above (Utley, Abreu, Howard, Burrell and Victorino). 

Of course, the Phils then went 2-9 over the next 11, and 16-32 over the next 48.  Yeah, let's hope that doesn't happen again.

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Breaking Down Chase Utley

No, I don't want to physically injure the NL MVP frontrunner. Let's take a closer look at what he's doing this season.

Utley is currently sporting a ridiculous 1.227 OPS, by far the best of his career (he hit .976 last year) The home runs are the most obvious improvement: he's already hit more than half as many as he did in the five months he played last season. He's on pace to hit 68 for the year, which would be 3rd best of all time.

Not only is he hitting more home runs, he's hitting more extra-base hits overall. It's not just doubles turning into homers. He's on pace for 52 doubles, which is behind the crazy pace he hit them at last year, but still would have been enough to lead the league.

But what's behind the power surge? His other stats don't look exceptional. His batting average is significantly up, but it has steadily improved every season. His strikeut rate is slightly down and walk rate is a bit up (the latter largely owing to being IBBed a few times due to Howard's struggles), but both are also in line with career trends.

What is unexpected is that his groundball rate is sharply down while his line drive and flyball rates are both up:

1679_2b_season_full_9_20080503_medium

via www.fangraphs.com

Also, per the Hardball Times, his HR/FB rate is by far the best of his career, at 23.4% (vs. a career rate of ~13%). This isn't an unusual HR/FB rate compared to other sluggers, however -- Barry Bonds bettered Chase's ratio in 3 of his last 4 seasons, and Ryan Howard has hit more home runs per fly ball in every year but this one.

What isn't off the charts, surprisingly enough, is Chase's average on balls in play. It's at .348, which is well above average, but not remarkable nor unsustainable. It's actually down from last season, when his BABIP was .362.

What does all this mean? I don't know, except that it seems extremely unlikely that he'll be able to keep up this pace. Utley doesn't have the physique usually associated with this kind of slugging, although the fact that his HR/FB rate isn't extraordinary is a good sign. The single biggest key to his success thus far would seem to be his GB/FB/LD rates. If he can keep smashing liners and flies all year even if some of his other numbers regress, he may well cruise to the MVP award.

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Utley claims NL Player of the Month honors

Extry! Extry! Read all about it!

From the article:

For setting the highest definition of excellence, Sharp, the presenting sponsor of the National League Player of the Month Award, presents Chase Utley with a 52" AQUOS®. Sharp AQUOS is the "Official High-Definition Television of Major League Baseball." Chase will also receive a specially designed trophy to mark his achievement.

Ya know, Chase ol' pal, if you ain't be needin' that tell-o-vision set, I can think of someone who DOOESSSS!!!  wink.

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Outman, Castro to Bullpen; Recall Ahead?

A quick one this morning from the Reading Eagle: 

Word came down from Philadelphia Thursday to shake up the Double-A club’s pitching staff, with Josh Outman and Fabio Castro sent to the bullpen.

The move of Castro isn’t a surprise: All but one of his 26 appearances with Philadelphia over the last two seasons have come out of the bullpen.

For the 23-year-old Outman, however, it’s big news since he’s been projected as a starter and a potential member of the rotation in Philadelphia.

The order to get him accustomed to coming out of the bullpen signals that the Phillies see him helping them, and soon. He could very well be in the big leagues by mid-June.

“They feel like the need in the major leagues (right now) is for a left-handed reliever,” said Phillies minor league pitching coordinator Gorman Heimueller. “I think he suits that (role). I have no doubt that he’s got the stuff to do it.”

J.C. Romero is the only left-hander in Charlie Manuel’s bullpen in Philadelphia.

I'm generally in favor of breaking in young pitchers in relief roles, though there's a question of whether Outman has made enough progress with his secondary pitches that this won't slow his long-term development, assuming he's still ticketed for the rotation long-term. But the time to win is now, and he could be a weapon in the bullpen. The same is true for Castro, who has filled a LOOGY role with the Phils at times over the last two seasons and has quality pitches but lacks command.

The moves indicates that the Phillies have little or no confidence in Steve Kline, the veteran lefty reliever now pitching for triple-A Lehigh Valley, and little or no interest in recently released LOOGY Ray King. 

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Is It Time To Bench Pedro Feliz?

Also posted at HTM

When Pedro Feliz was signed to a 2 year, 8.5 million dollar deal in the off-season I had my reservations about the whole thing. Basically, I looked at these things called 'facts' and wondered why the Phillies should be starting a guy with a ludicrously low on-base percentage (OBP). Here were my thoughts on the signing:

So what do I think? I think he’ll be a slight upgrade over Nunez/Dobbs/Helms, but he’s no great shakes. He’s a below-average hitter, as his career 84 OPS+ shows(100 is average). He’s a terrific defensive third baseman, but does that make up for his horrible patience at the plate? Somewhat, but that’s only because of the trash that was thrown out at third base the past couple seasons. Feliz is not a big upgrade, he’s a VERY small upgrade…VERY small. It seems like a waste of money, to be honest. We could’ve spent no money and gotten production that was only a little worse. Considering I feel a large part of offense is getting on base, his horrendous .288 career OBP is worrisome. His career EQA (basically an offensive metric which attempts to put everything together independent of park and league effects) is .244. .260 is league average, FWIW. Helms’ career EQA is .263.

Well, it looks like I've been largely vindicated. Feliz is posting career lows in damn near every category except one...he actually has 7 walks. However, that may be due to a combination of his spot in the order and the hitting philosophy of the Phillies ballplayers and hitting coach rubbing off on him somewhat. Problem is, when he tries to swing that bat he just can't get it to fall to a spot without a defender there ready to scoop it up. He went 0-3 last night against the San Diego Padres to drop his average to a putrid .209, while his OBP dropped to .265 and his slugging percentage fell to .363. That adds up to a 628 OPS, which is a little handy-dandy indicator showing just how horrible he's been at the plate. To put that in perspective, Wes Helms, the man the Phillies basically told to not come back this season because of how much he struggled, amassed a 665 OPS in 2007 in 280 at bats. Their OPS+ is nearly identical, with Feliz at 67 in 2008 (with 100 being league average) and Helms at 68 in 2007.

The above means I was wrong in at least one respect. I stated Feliz would be an ever so slight upgrade at third base. He's actually provided no discernible upgrade in offensive production, and while his defense is better than Helms', that does little to cover up the massive problem at third.

But we have a solution! The Phillies have a potential fix for third base and it wouldn't cost them a dime. Oh, they might have a little egg on their faces, but they'll get over it. They could pull Greg Dobbs from off the bench and give him some more regular playing time.

BUT HE'S A PINCH-HITTING SPECIALIST! one might say. Perhaps, but in 35 AB thus far he's amassed a 982 OPS. Last year he had a 780 OPS in 324 AB. They started to really lean on Dobbs last season as they phased out Helms, why not again?

BUT WE PAID FELIZ ALL THIS MONEY! Teams have dead money on teams all over the league. The goal is to win, not to try to validate irresponsible free agent signings. Dobbs was a cheap get. He's shown since 2006 in Seattle that he's a major-league hitter. He's nothing special at the hot corner in regards to defense, but the man can hit fairly well. Why not go back to his bat? A near 800 OPS would do wonders for this offense. He's been getting about 2 starts a week..why not flip-flop his at bats with Feliz? No harm can come from it if Dobbs starts to struggle because Feliz is already one of the worst hitters in the league right now. Only good can come from this move.

While the Phillies are a meritocracy in other positions, such as centerfielder, they are seemingly willfully ignoring the potential to easily upgrade third base. It's time to bench Pedro Feliz.

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Feliz BB/GIDP ratio

Right now he is slightly over 1 (woo hoo) with a 7:6 BB/GIDP ratio.  This is a pretty decent indicatior of patience.  Patience comes in many forms, but it is very important with a runner on base.  This is akin to hooking up with a girl and getting to first base with her.  The last thing you want to do is to GIDP, if you know what I mean and I think you all do.  Alas, they don't call him Pete Happy for nothing.

Stay tuned as this is entertainment at it's finest!

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