I've been looking over this blog now for a couple of weeks, and I've thought about a possible FanPost, and this is it. With baseball season soon approaching, and previews and predictions rolling out, I thought I might do some of my own. This Post is a Top 10 list featuring the Top 10 pitchers in the NL East to watch for this year, and my predictions for them. But do know, this list is for the Top 10 Pitchers to look out for, like what changes may happen, surprising performances, records, disappointments, etc., not in increasing order of likely sucess.

10. Jordan Zimmermann, Washington Nationals

This may be hard to see, but Jordan Zimmmermann is a strong, young pitcher to compliment Stephen Strasburg in the Nats' rotation. Jordan Zimmermann was a bright spot when the Nationals had little strength in their rotation, going 4-7 with a 4.71 ERA in 23 starts over two partial seasons in 2009 and 2010. In 2011, though, Zimmermann showed his real stuff, going 8-11 with a 3.18 ERA and 3.16 FIP. Zimmermann will take a back seat in 2012 however, due to the additions of Gio Gonzalez, Edwin Jackson, and the return of Stephen Strasburg. Bill James' projection give Zimmermann an 11-8 record and a 3.39 ERA and 147 strikeouts in 175 innings.

My Final Thought:Zimmermann will be a young pitcher to go to should Gonzalez or Jackson regress in their new environments. However, he will be a somewhat average pitcher for them.

My Projection:8-7 record, 4.00 ERA, 110 strikeouts

9. Vance Worley, Philadelphia Phillies

Rookie Vance Worley was a legitimate 4th ace of the Phillies staff last year. In his initial year in Philadelphia in 2010, he was strong in 5 games, 2 of them starting, to earn a 1.38 ERA and a 3.16 FIP. You guys know his stuff and stats, 11-3, 3.01 ERA, and 3.32 FIP last year. Vance Worley was a strong pitcher in the second half of the season for the Phillies, and can do even more damage with a full season to come next year. However, Bill James' projection doesn't think too highly of him, giving him an even 8-8 record with a 3.86 ERA and FIP.

My Final Thought:Vance Worley will be an unsung hero for Philadelphia, and I think he'll be a 10-game winner, but as a number 4 starter.

My Projection:12-6 record, 3.22 ERA, 130 strikeouts

8. Mark Buehrle, Miami Marlins

Mark Buehrle has had a long and successful career with the Chicago White Sox, and will begin a new chapter in Miami. Buehrle's FIP has fluctuated around 4.00 since 2007, but has kept it under 4.00 for the last two years, 3.90 in 2010 and 3.98 in 2011. I still see Buehrle as a reliable number 3 starter for the Marlins. I expect Buehrle to keep pitching over 200 innings in 2012, as he has in each season since 2001. Bill James' projection give Buehrle a 12-11 record in 2012 in addition to a 3.98 ERA and 4.08 FIP.

My Final Thought:Buehrle will regress a little in 2012 in his new environment, and opponents will jump on him easily in the first half, but I do think he'll settle in when the time comes.

My Projection:12-12 record, 3.89 ERA, 105 strikeouts

7. Brandon Beachy, Atlanta Braves

This man has been flying under the radar since he started in Atlanta last year. Brandon Beachy was an undrafted free agent, and was signed by the Braves in 2007, and worked his way up to the Majors, earning a September nod in 2010, and made the best of it. In 3 games, Brandon was 0-2 with a 3.00 ERA and a 2.48 FIP. This small sample was enough to earn him a nod as a permanent starter in the Braves' rotation last year, and he sure didn't disappoint. In 25 games in 2011, Beachy was 7-3 with a 3.68 ERA, and 3.16 xFIP, and led the Braves in strikeouts with 169. However, his first full season as a Braves was hampered by an injury that caused him to miss over a month. This year, hopefully Brandon will have a full, healthy season, and Bill James' projection gives Beachy a 11-6 record, a 3.14 ERA, and 183 strikeouts over 155 innings of work.

My Final Thought:I see Brandon Beachy as a strong number 4 starter for the Braves, and as a reliable guy to go to.

My Projection:13-8 record, 3.83 ERA, 172 strikeouts

6. Carlos Zambrano, Miami Marlins

Where do I start? I'm putting Zambrano on this list to see how he responds to a number of factors. One, his new environment. Two, his new opponents. Three, his new manager. Fourth, his new teammates. Any old thing will seem to set Zambrano off and his season in doing so. Zambrano was a disappointment last year, going 9-7 with a 4.82 ERA and 4.59 FIP. Can Zambrano fight back (not literally I hope) and regain his form and dominance? His new team will need it. Bill James' projection says Zambrano will be 10-10 with a 3.83 ERA and 4.01 FIP.

My Final Thought:Zambrano will be no match for what is to come in the NL East. The hitters are better, Ozzie won't tolerate any of his frustration, and his career will collapse. Zambrano's role will liekly fluctuate from the rotation to the 'pen, and the Marlins will wish they still had Chris Volstad.

My Projection:9-10 record, 4.50 ERA, 130 strikeouts

5. Johan Santana, New York Mets

I believe that Johan Santana is going to comeback with a vengeance for the New York Mets. When absent, New York always seems to be struggling with finding a reliable starter (you know, when they're not climbing mountains). But, Santana will be back soon, just not on Opening Day. Johan will settle easily back in as the ace of the Mets' staff. Hopefully, I hope he will get injured again just to see the Mets' fans cry he will regain his true dominance he had with the Minnesota Twins. Bill James' projection gives Santana a 14-7 record, a 3.19 ERA, and a 3.49 FIP.

My Final Thought:The paragraph above says it all. He'll return to dominance and win at least 13 games.

My Projection:16-8 record, 3.14 ERA, 172 strikeouts

4. Tommy Hanson, Atlanta Braves

Tommy Hanson was a force for the Braves in the first half of last season and was arguably an All-Star snub, going 10-4 with a 2.44 ERA. However, he showed a very disappointing second half, sidelined by an injury, in which he went 1-3 with an 8.10 ERA. Hanson has showed this offseason that he has revamped his delivery and has gotten healthier. Tommy will be the number 2 starter in a Braves' rotation that is healthy, strong, and is getting a fresh start. Last year in total, Hanson was 11-7 with a 3.60 ERA and 3.67 FIP compared to a 3.29 xFIP. Bill James' projection gives Hanson a 10-7 record with a 3.18 ERA and 3.39 FIP.

My Final Thought:As a Braves fan, I hope Hanson can stay healthy all year, and is a young force for the Braves throughout the year. Hanson should be able to get double-digits in wins, and keep an ERA under 3.50 while racking up over 150 strikeouts.

My Projection:14-10 record, 3.41 ERA, 152 strikeouts

3. Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals

Stephen Strasburg is coming off Tommy John surgery, with a repaired arm that is prepared to create dispair. I see Strasburg as a strong ace for the Nationals, something they badly need. In 2011, Strasburg was 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA and 24 strikeouts in 24 innigs, in addition to a 1.28 FIP. That is absolutely crazy. Bill James dosn't have a projection for Strasburg, so I'll give the projection RotoChamp has for him. RotoChamp gives him a 13-7 record, a 2.38 ERA, a 1.97 FIP, and 185 strikeouts in 155 innings.

My Final Thought:I see Strasburg winning at least 14 games for the Nationals in 2012, and with his stuff he certainly earns it. I wouldn't be surprised to see Strasburg with double-digit strikeouts in a few games.

My Projection:14-6 record, 3.02 ERA, 202 strikeouts.

2. Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies

I'm up to Halladay now. You guys know him better than he knows himself. A 19-6 record, 2.35 ERA and 2.20 FIP, and 220 strikeouts in 233 innings. Halladay has been one of the most electric guys in baseball, if not the most impressive. Halladay is a potential HOF man, and he has the tools to get him there. Bill James' projection gives Halladay an impressive 17-8 record, a 3.03 ERA, and a 2.96 FIP, but only 188 strikeouts in 232 innings, the same amount of innings last year (233) where he collected 32 more strikeouts (220), over the projected 188 this year.

My Final Thought:Halladay will remain an electric ace and will dominate the NL East as usual, but not as good as the next guy on my list.

My Projection:18-9 record, 2.97 ERA, 210 strikeouts.

1. Josh Johnson, Miami Marlins

First, remember. This list is about the top 10 pitchers to watch for. This doesn't mean in increasing order of projected success. This list means pitchers to look for changes, impressive years, record-setting performances, and disappointments. That's why Carlos Zambrano is number 6. You may be angry at me for this pick for number 1, but the fact is, many people have forgotten about Josh Johnson. In 2010 with the Marlins, a full year, Johnson 11-6 with a 2.30 ERA and 2.41 FIP, and 186 strikeouts in 183 innings pitched. In 2011, a year cut drastically short, Johnson was 3-1 with a 1.64 ERA, 2.64 FIP, and 56 strikeouts in 60 innings. Bill James' projection gives Johnson a 12-6 record with a 3.09 ERA, and 2.92 FIP, and 146 strikeouts in 160 innings.

My Final Thought:Josh Johnson will have a full season with the Miami Marlins, one to be remembered. As the ace, he will be responsible for the most reliability, which he will give to his team.

My Projection:18-8 record, 2.96 ERA, 200 strikeouts

That completes my list of the Top 10 NL East Starting Pitcher to Watch For [coming from a Braves fan]. What's your opinion? Vote in the poll too.

I've made two fantasy leagues for the upcoming season and I need a couple more spots to be filled. League info after 'The Jump'.

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He actually e-mailed this question to Grantland's Katie Baker, who published it in her mailbag:

My dad was born and raised in the heart of New York City. He is a diehard fan of the Yankees, Giants, and Knicks. Just like any other kid with a diehard New York sports fan dad, I was brainwashed from a very early age to live and die with New York sports. My dad and I bond the most over sports and going to events. We went to Lambeau Field for the 2007 NFC Championship game, and now to this Super Bowl.

Long story short, I got drafted by the Phillies, and got called up for a month and a half this past season. My love for the Yankees has disappeared but my love for the Giants and Knicks is as strong as ever. I also have fallen in love with the city of Philadelphia and truly believe they are the best baseball fans in the country. The last thing I ever want to do is lose support from these fans, but I love the Giants. So am I allowed to outwardly root for the G-MEN or do I have to keep that to myself because I happen to be employed by the Phillies?

— Michael S.

Her answer:

"Long Story Short, I Got Drafted by the Phillies" sounds like Bill Bryson's next work of participatory journalism (which I would excitedly preorder, obviously), but I'll also accept it as a throwaway line in my first mailbag letter from a professional athlete. Hello there! Not sure if you and/or anyone else watches Sister Wives, but it had a great reality show wrinkle in time a season or so back during which they spent numerous episodes agonizing about whether or not to "go public" with their polygamy — when, clearly, they obviously already had gone public or else how would I be watching them agonize about it on a show called Sister Wives in the first place, you know? Anyway, my point is, your question kind of reminds me of Sister Wives: You're already out in the open and now there's no point in hiding it.

Sooner or later, everyone has to learn that there are two types of sports fans: those who intrinsically understand that it's unreasonable to assume any particular athlete would have grown up as a fan of their team; and those who are certain to spit things like "He stinks. He's a Giants fan, what do you expect?" in angry earnest down the road. But regardless of whom you're dealing with, it's best at this point to remain gracious in victory, because it's hard to say how long it will endure. I say this not as any sort of reverse jinx, but rather because any fan of any NFC East team knows this much to be true: No one lasts too long on top. There's as good a chance as any that the Eagles could knock the Big Blue right down to size next season. And if/when that happens, it's going to be annoying enough without a horde of I-told-you-so-ing Philly fans getting all up in your face. (Just don't wear a Giants shirt into a Wawa.)

Here's a recent and relevant precedent that you can use in your favor, if needed: The Giants' own resident salsa dancer, Victor "they're not booing, they're saying" Cruuuuuz,not only outed himself as a longtime Cowboys fan this December, he did so in the most potentially damaging way possible: by lamenting how he "was pretty upset when we lost to the Giants a couple of years back when I was in college." That's right, He used the "loyal we." The sound bite made headlines, but Giants fans were secure enough to know it really wasn't that big a deal. And after the Giants won the Super Bowl, the New York Rangers' Brian Boyle, a noted New Englander, was revealed to have obviously engaged in a pro-Patriots bet. Rangers fans understood. So you've got leverage over Philly fans in that respect: If they give you any trouble, it's just proof that they're vastly inferior to their counterparts in New York. [Redacted because these are three very dirty words that should never appear on this blog]!

What do those of you who are fans of the Philly teams across the board think? Is this cool, or should he be required to convert to the good side?

I was reading a lot of the things RAJ has been saying lately about Ryan Howard and Cole Hamels and contracts and what not. In the comments of all these articles, the conversation generally shifts to how Ryan Howard isn't as good as his contract would indicate, and generally devolves into how Ryan Howard isn't actually that good for a first baseman. While I don't necessarily agree or disagree with all that I find it odd that he has become such a lightning rod for that type of criticism. I understand that it mainly stems from the amount of money he is about to be paid. Money like that should reflect a certain set of skills and talents, and in the current market, Ryan Howard doesn't possess them when compared to other first baseman. His value is derived almost entirely in his power now and reputation. His walk rates are fine, but his average pulls down his overall OBP (still above average for all players, but nothing special for first baseman). He doesn't run the bases well, and has never stolen more than 1 base in a year save for 2009 (8). His defense is average at the very best and pretty bad if you were to consult the numbers and ask most folks. His power is still good, but not nearly what is used to be and is looking like it is still in decline. His last three years slugging percentages are: .571, .505, and last year's .488. His ISOs generally follow that trend except his 2010 was .229 and his 2011 was slightly higher (.235) a far cry from his average season of .285 or his peak of .346. He hits a decent amount of homeruns and drives in a metric TON of runs every year. Because he does those things, and because he received the contract he did, it has caused a rift within the Philly fanbase as well as the general MLB fanbase. Most SABR friendly people would say that he is vastly overrated and it's easy to see. He is getting old, he is declining, and he hasn't been one of the 5 best first basemen (let alone player) in the majors yet he is about to be paid like one. Others would say he is the pre-eminent power hitter of our generation (patent pending) and a run producer so it's ok to pay him like that. The point of this little essay is not to determine Howard's value, or his ratedness (whether over, under, or just right), but to discuss the nature of this hot button issue (It's February after the Super Bowl, what else am I to do?). Harballtalk has put out quite a few articles as of late mentioning the Phillies or Amaro or both or neither and the comments sections invariably revert to a dissection of Ryan Howard and how he isn't worth the money.

Example links:

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/01/31/ruben-amaro-continues-to-overvalue-ryan-howard/

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/01/29/ruben-amaro-is-just-fine-with-ryan-howards-contract/

This got me thinking.

Isn't there another well paid first baseman who is in a similar spot to Howard right now? Allow me to lay out some numbers to make it easier to visualize:

Player A

2010 .256/.365/.481 .367 wOBA 126 wRC+

2011 .248/.341/.494 .361 wOBA 124 wRC+

Avg .252/.353/.488 .364 wOBA 125 wRC+

Player B

2010 .276/.353/.505 .367 wOBA 126 wRC+

2011 .253/.346/.488 .354 wOBA 123 wRC+

Avg .265/.350/.497 .361 wOBA 125 wRC+

Player A and Player B are virtually identical hitters. There really isn't much difference between the two as laid out in the triple slash stats as well as the advanced ones. A .364 wOBA vs. a .361 wOBA is negligible and the wRC+ numbers are identical over the 2 year average (obviously rounded up for player B by .5 RC). Both are first baseman. Both were signed to large contracts. Both have 5 years left on said contracts. Player A is Mark Teixeira and Player B is the man himself, Ryan Howard. Teixeira has 5 years and 112.5 million left on his contract, Howard has, obviously, 5 years and 125 million left on his contract. Now, I concede to the fact that Teixeira is a superior defender. I grant that to him 100%, but you won't find people arguing that if RyHo were a good defender he would justify the contract. People are up in arms about his hitting (and rightfully so to a degree). But no one that I have heard, is complaining about the remaining 112.5 million left on Teixeira's deal. The difference between the two is 2.5 mil a year. So I guess what I'm asking (and don't worry, I'm not actually looking for an answer, maybe just points of discussion/your perception of the situation) isn't why all the Howard hate, but rather, why no hate for Teixeira? What makes Howard such a polarizing figure and not Tex? I mean he plays in NY for chrissakes and no one is really talking about it.

I've bandied this idea to some friends and what generally comes back is the nature of the New York Yankees. They have such a multitude of large sum contracts that Teixeira is probably just lost in the shuffle (Thank you A.J. Burnett).

Another possible reason is that I am completely wrong and there are plenty of people out there who are outraged by the Teixeira deal, I just don't hear them. This may be true, but, at my own peril, I listen to the major sports talk radio shows in the greater NY area (where I live) every morning and I can't recall this being an issue (again, thanks A.J. Burnett).

Finally, the reason may be that Teixeira is simply closer in value to reaching his salary each year (due mostly to his defensive contributions)and it's simply not worth making a big deal out of. Again, I'm not trying to determine their relative value (Fangraphs does that better than I could), but the perception of their value relative to the fans. So when Mark Teixeira is worth 3.2 fWAR in 2010 and 4.2 fWAR in 2011, while Howard was worth 1.4 and 1.6 respectively with almost identical offensive numbers, I understand where the difference in actual value comes from.

I have other thoughts on possible reason but I'd like to hear from the mouths of babes, and also from you guys.

So after all that, what do you think? Am I crazy? Stupid? Both? Neither? Annoying? All of the above?

Our own David Cohen highlights a rumbling that the assumed divorce between the Phillies and Roy Oswalt might not be as final as all that. I also saw on MLBTR that speculation is hot and heavy around an Angels-Nationals trade that would send Washington rotation mainstay (and TGP bete noire) John Lannan to Anaheim for outfielder Peter Bourjos. All this, plus the seasonal madness that usually comes upon me as we get close to pitchers and catchers, got me thinking...

A plus defensive center fielder with speed and a bit of pop who will turn 25 just before the start of the season, Bourjos is a valuable piece who's got more tomorrows than yesterdays. The Phillies need to get younger, and the only reason the Angels are looking to move him is that they've got a position-player logjam with an even better CF prospect, Mike Trout, knocking on the door and a glut of corner men in both the infield and outfield. Given the choice between Lannan and, say, Vance Worley, wouldn't they go with the younger, cheaper arm? Then the Phillies sign Oswalt at $5-6 million for one season, and they've upgraded across the board.

Worley actually might have more value than Bourjos. Given our glut of high-ceiling relievers and Anaheim's abundance of infielders, maybe there's even a bigger deal to be made around in which the Phillies add a MIchael Stutes or Justin De Fratus and also land talented utility infielder Alberto Callaspo--think a younger Wilson Valdez with a slightly worse glove but much better bat--or Mark Trumbo, a first baseman/corner OF slugger type.

Bourjos either pushes Shane Victorino to left field or takes that position himself. John Mayberry, Jr. assumes the bulk of first-base duties until Ryan Howard comes back from injury, then moves into a sub role at all three OF positions plus first base, freeing up Ty Wigginton to serve as a frequent sub for Chase Utley and Placido Polanco--both of whom will need an off-day or two each week. Having Bourjos gives the Phils a viable CF replacement for Victorino when he reaches free agency after 2012.

Losing Worley would hurt a little, but if there's one area where the Phils have solid organizational depth, it's the rotation. Joe Blanton is the #4 starter, with Kyle Kendrick and Joel Piniero battling it out for #5 and adequate organizational depth with Pat Misch, Austin Hyatt et al behind them. In a year, the first of the Trevor May/Julio Rodriguez/Brody Colvin cohort should be knocking at the major-league door.

One problem would be that Oswalt at $5-6 million would push the Phillies over the luxury tax limit. I guess it's possible that the Angels might consider Blanton rather than Worley; if healthy, he has to be about as good a bet to perform as Lannan, and the Phillies could cover a large-ish chunk of his salary and still find a way under the limit. Of course, given that he's under control only for a year as opposed to Worley, the Phils would have to put in more on their end--again, maybe one of the high-upside relief prospects. But that seems worthwhile to add one or more pieces who could help the team both in 2012 and beyond.

(Editors note... The opinions expressed here are fictional. Any resemblance to future, former, current gritty, hustling OFers thoughts are purely coincidental.)

22 days. 528 Hours. 31,680 minutes. the count runs through my head like so many thoughts, but my thoughts wander into a stream of nothing. My fingers twist gracefully. No pain. No fear. Just the zone.

The dream is the same every night. The crack is loud like thunder. Fastball. I feel it instantly and I know, like an omen. The boy in the stands with the orange and green hat keeps taunting me. All my fears, compacted into one swing. Suddenly I look up. CRACK! The sound is familiar, but the pain... What pain! What pain? I move left. side step, side step, shuffle, angle in not out, in then back, as if my body knows where its going before my legs can catch up, but my legs they glide. I'm there before I know it but the sphere it hangs. Eternity. Routine. like I've been doing it my whole life. The ball falls into my glove, I reach for it. I try to throw, but I can't. My hand is mangled and before I can think to look up the lineman barrels into me.

Suddenly I am six years old. The bike lays over me, twisted. The chain caught around my ankle, dug in deep. Blood trickles. Burn. Half a mile from home, but I ride. I have no choice. It is dark, the clouds settle, and the wolves howl deep and low from the woods behind the track. They will eat me I am sure of this. So I ride. Through the pain. Fast. Burning. If I had a sling I'd stop and take them out one by one. But I ride. the wolves are silent. were they there? Does it matter? I reach for the water bottle, and I am a man. Racing down the Champs de elysee! One by one they pass. Stanton. Mayberry. Myers. Harper. Trout. Martinez? Are you fucking kidding me? The pedestrians in the crowd cheer. But the Bull just stares; Glaring, as the barbecue sauce drips from his disapproving chin, while Rose eats watermelon and smiles. I wonder who he bet on, Trout or Harper? I can only be certain it wasn't me. I want to scream but I just smile. And I ride. Like a natural. Effortless. there is no wind behind me because I am faster than the earth itself. My body knows what its doing before my legs can catch up and I glide. I catch them.

All of them.

Every damn one.

Out of sight out of mind, but never out of the race.

I turn and hear his voice.

"Did you know that like, the difference between a 500 ft home run and a routine flyball is measured in like, milliseconds and a point on the face of the bat that measures less than 1/116 millimeters?" He spits, then points to my mangled hand and gestures with his own. "quarter inch up, half a whisker in....Then EXPLODE!" Charlie says. The orb is the size of a soccerball, out of the pitchers hand. CRACK! The burn. I turn around and the cage is gone. The noise is deafening. 50,000 wolves fill the stadium. Fielder waggles. I dig my front foot. Ball one. I look up, "TIME!" And I know what is coming before it even happens. 2 outs. Down 2. Bases loaded. Game 7. I don't know where I am, but I know he's owned me the entire series. Like Johnson owned Knoblauch in 2001. Suddenly I realize I am 0-6, with three K's against him in the span of a week. The wolves howl a booing howl, so deep, so etherial, that I can't hear Charlies call. "Dom!" He gestures and slowly limp walks my way. Big Jim grabs a bat. Charlie looks at Ryan. Ryan looks at him. The wolves are so loud that my spine chills. There are thousands of them. Yellow eyes. Rabid Drool. I am sure they want to eat me.

The slap to my head burns. "Dom!" his eyes connect. "Milliseconds" he says. he stands there for what seems like an eternity. He looks down. Spits his seeds on my shoe. "Quarter inch up. Half a whisker." He winks, slaps my backside, and walks back to his spot on the steps. I turn. The hand is like a paw. Ryan stares into my eyes "Total Package. Remember?" The ace on the hill does not. Neither do the wolves in the stands. But I do. I smile. dig my front toe. Hands out. This time the ball is bigger than the earth itself. I grip the bat and my hand is strong. CRACK! It's March. 2010. Clearwater. The howls subside. Only cheers. deafening.

Milliseconds.

Or

Millenia

I wake the same every morning, in a sweat. the alarm is loud. but in a good way. 5:15. 3 miles. before the heat kicks in. 500 swings. before the blisters burst. 500 routes no ball, no bat, just side step, side step, shuffle, angle in not out, in then back. I smile. I twist my hand, stretch out my fingers. No pain. Not even the slightest pull or pressure.

21 days. 520 hours. 31,205 minutes thats all the time left to keep the wolves at bay.

So for those interested, here's the 2012 estimated payroll now that Hunter Pence has signed. WHat you see is not what each player makes this year, rather it is the AAV of their contract in millions. I rounded up, not down on purpose. AAV is what matters for staying under the Luxury tax, and thats really what we should worry about as well.

When looking at this, Keep in mind that each team typical pays between 9 and 11 MM towards benefits on top of actual payroll, and the LUX tax limit is 178mm for 2012. Add that to the total below, and we're teetering on the edge.

We may finish right under it, and if so, Wilson Valdez may once again be our MVP, for saving 450k in payroll when we traded him.

This is why we're bottom feeding to strike bronze with a guy like Juan Pierre.

I used league minimum for guys like John Mayberry (* indicates min salary) and made an educated guess on who ends up breaking camp, but if thats different it shouldn't have much effect...i.e if DeFratus or Schwimmer or Aumont end up in the pen instead of Herndon or Stutes, etc.. the names change but the numbers (except on the jerseys) stay the same.

My initial thoughts:

1) I think this goes a LONG way in understanding why we focused on 1 year deals for Hamels and Pence. Remember, the limit stays the same for 2013, but goes up to 189mm in 2014, and the new CBA carries hefty increases for 2nd time offenders.

If Hamels signed, say, a 5 year 100mm deal that paid him 15mm this season, 19mm next season, and 23mm in 14-16, we'd be counting 20mm for his AAV this year for lux tax purposes.

2) as TP pointed out we have a SURPLUS of pitchers signed at the Minor league level. If a guy like Pinero shows he can compete in the spring, they could look to unload a guy like Blanton or Kendrick, and eat salary to lower costs.

3) I don't think Dontrell Willis is a lock to make the team, and I would go so far to say he has to be VASTLY BETTER than some of the young arms to justify the extra money.

4) Tell me again why we signed Laynce Nix?

5) How's that Papelbon deal looking now? Any better?

Feel free to discuss.

(Assumes the Opening Day big league bullpen will include Contreras, Herndon, Stutes)

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Ed. Note: Front Paged for the Cabin Febrile'd.-- Wet Luzinski

From deep within the bowels of their secret Ice Fortress, the OUN Cabal has begin to plan for the 2012 season, and we need YOUR help.

Home sweet home.

See details after the break.

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In light of Cole Hamels recently signing a one-year, $15 million contract for his last year of team control, attention now turns to whether the Phillies can bring back their homegrown ace long-term. At the same time that the Fightins will need to deal with Hamels, their two best (and youngest) position players will also require attention. Shane Victorino will finish his team-friendly 3-year deal in October, and Hunter Pence will be one year from free agency, with the ability to command about $15 million in his final year of arbitration. Together, the three figure to account for at least $50 million in salary obligations for 2013 -- a number the Phillies are unlikely to pay.

The question then becomes: who of these three will sport red pinstripes in 2013? Let's assume the Mayan calander is incorrect, and there actually be a 2013.

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