I'm sure most of you by now are well aware of some of the comments that Jayson Werth has made about the Philadelphia Phillies in light of his recent injury and the supposed cheering of his broken wrist by some fans in right field. The animosity between Werth and the Phillies is at a fever pitch right now, which is rather sad to see given that Werth was one of the key members of the 2008 World F*ckin' Champions and a huge part of their success in 2009 and 2010. A lot of fans probably don't understand where all the hatred stems from. I mean, after all, he's the one who betrayed us, right? He chased the dollar and wound up on a losing franchise (that's currently in first place, I know), but that's his problem, not ours, right? He's probably just feeling regret, which he deserves, and is trying to make himself feel better by slandering us, right? Right?

I think there's more to it than that. I think Werth lashing out at the Phillies organization and fan base is exactly what the Nationals want him to do, and might even be asking him to do. And after the jump, I'll explain to you why I think that's the case.

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Good morning to you from the dank marshes of peninsular Florida, where last night the allegedly offensively inept Clearwater Threshers scored in double digits on the Brevard County Manatees, against a starting pitcher who is Milwaukee's #3 prospect. This game had managers getting tossed, players getting halfway to first base before being called back to the batter's box, and other crazy shenanigans. So, let's do the time warp again and jump to the action.

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Sixteen games have been played this season. At this time last season, Cleveland was leading the Central, while Detroit was two games below .500. The Reds would have won the Central, while the Cardinals were barely .500. And the Colorado Rockies were running away with the NL West. In fact, Had the season ended after the Phillies 16th game last season, the NLDS matchups would have been Rockies vs. Marlins and Phillies vs. Reds. Three of those teams finished sub-.500 last year. The AL matchups would have been been murkier (but closer to reality), with Cleveland winning the Central, either Anaheim or Texas taking the West (with a wildcard battle between the west loser and Kansas City), and the Yankees winning the East. While watching the Phillies the past couple of weeks has been painful, perhaps these trials are a lesson that will make thmem stronger, and (other than the 2009 Yankees), the World Series has been won by teams that have fought tough battles to get there- last year's Cardinals won the wild card on a wild final day of the season, the 2010 Giants won the West on the season's last day after chasing down the Padres,and the Phillies clinched the East in 2008 in the last weekend of the season. Maybe living through the tough stuff and finding ways to succeed gives these teams an edge that lets them face adversity when it happens in the post season knowing they can rise to the challengs. The Phillies teams that made it to the World Series were both .500 at this point after starting the season sub .500. This team will be fine!

As the Phillies offense limps out of the gate, the calls for Domonic Brown's return will no doubt come soon. And although the Phillies never mentioned it publicly (they really are not allowed to), I think they sent Brown back to AAA partly to scrape an extra year of team control out of Brown.

A quick review of how service time and team control work:

• Players accrue a day of service every day they are on the active roster or major-league disabled list.
• Players can accrue up to, but no more than, 172 days of service in one season. For MLB's accounting, 172 days equals one season of service. There are typically about 182 calendar days in the regular season.
• Players are eligible for arbitration at the conclusion of the first season where their service clock runs over three seasons. The exception is Super Two players, who get an extra year of arbitration.
• Players are eligible for free agency at the end of the first season where their service clock runs over 6 full seasons (long-term deals and options aside).

Brown finished last year with 1 year and 13 days of service time, meaning he needs another 159 days in the bigs to clear 2 full years of service. The 2012 season ends on October 3rd, meaning Brown needs to be in the major leagues by no later than April 28th to achieve 159 days of service time.

Consider we are already 9 days away from that date, and there has been nary a whisper from the Phillies front office of bringing Brown back into the fold, it is almost a lock that they are going to squeeze an extra year of team control out of the 24-year-old former top prospect. Brown most likely won't be a free agent until after the 2017 season.

As for Super Two status, which Brown could hypothetically achieve after the 2013 season? MLB Trade Rumors has 2 years and 134 days as the projected cutoff number for Super Twos after this season, which is down from the 2.147 cutoff last year. The cutoff has generally been trending down because of teams gaming service clocks by delaying the promotions of top prospects.

Let's say Brown could become a Super Two after 2013 if he gets to 2 years and 130 days by then, and let's further assume he is a full time player in 2013. He would need 117 days of service this season to get to 1.130, which puts his latest possible arrival date for eventual Super Two status as June 9th.

Of course, the Phillies haven't mentioned holding Brown back for service reasons publicly. They have maintained he needs to work on his defense (which is very true) and they have not put any kind of expected return date out. And no one has speculated about it, until I just did. Even if they didn't evaluate service time considerations at all when making the decision to pack Brown back to the minors, the implications are positive for the long-term.

To summarize:

• Brown comes up after April 28th: extra year of team control
• Brown comes up after June 9th: likely no Super Two status after 2013 season

Whether on purpose or not, the Phillies have successfully extended their control over a very valuable asset, and they have likely saved themselves some money at the same time.

Well everybody kind of knew going into this season the Phillies weren't going to come into ball games and score 10 runs every night, if that was possible for the Phillies sports would sure be a more enjoyable event to watch but we do not have that type of high power offense as of right now with Utley and Howard both out, it is not time to panic just yet but things aren’t looking to good.

It seems like this year for the Phillies the name of the game is to bunt the ball a lot, over the past weekend in Pittsburgh the Phillies lost the series to the Pirates on two walk offs, But I sure saw a lot of bunting going on over there in the Steel City from the team in Red, one time I recall we had runners on first and second with the number three batter up in the order which happened to be Jimmy Rollins and he bunted the runners over, I really dislike having the number three batter in the lineup bunting at all but I guess to watch this team I’m going to have to get used to it this year. I remember a couple of years ago when the Phillies would just tally up runs in a heartbeat and blast home runs, you can't take times like that for granted because now we have a team that can hardly chalk up one run.

Having an instant out at the top of the lineup does not help matters either, I have nothing against Juan Pierre as a human but as a baseball player I really dislike his winkey dink type of play, Pierre basically hits bloop singles and then gets caught stealing about 70 percent of the time. Pierre is a really fast player but he is a horrible base stealer because he can’t figure out how to get a lead off of first. A key to base stealing is getting a good lead, there is so many players that do not have the speed of Pierre but can steal bases because they understand how to get great leads, something that they need to teach Pierre but it’s really to late to teach him at this point as he is in his 13th season as a player. The only real point to Pierre is his speed but if he can’t even steal bases with all of that speed then I would get rid of him. Just to add-on to my little Juan Pierre tirade, Pierre has a horrible outfield arm, probably couldn’t even throw out Bengie Molina trying to score on a single from second base, I have seen little league players with better arms.

If I was the skipper of the Phillies and had to construct a lineup I would not even put Pierre in the lineup, this would be the lineup and a brief reason why I would pencil them in that spot.

1. Jimmy Rollins

Always been that lead off guy for the Phillies and he can get on base, also nows how to steal bases. He can get hits and also has some power, can pop the ball out of the ballpark.

2. Placido Polanco

The perfect guy to bat second because he almost never strikeouts and is one of the best contact hitters in the game, can produce hits and set it up for the power hitters in the lineup.

3. John Mayberry Jr.

I would put Mayberry in the third spot because he has the power to hit balls out of the ballpark as he showed last year, last year Mayberry blasted 15 home runs in his most productive year of his career. Now can someone explain to me why a guy who hit 15 home runs last year was sitting on the bench last weekend in Pittsburgh so we could have little wimpy Pierre in the lineup? The Phillies have only hit one home run so far this season but we bench a guy who hit 15 home runs last year? Juan Pierre only has 16 home runs over his 12 year career.

4. Hunter Pence

As long as Pence is with this team I sure hope Pence is always in the cleanup spot in this lineup, he can hit homers and bats in a ton of runs over the long season. I really don’t know how he hits some of these balls that are out of the strike zone but he is sure fun to watch, Pence has the only home run this season for the Phillies.

5. Shane Victorino

Victorino is fast, can hit, and hit some home runs over the course of a season, I would put him in the fifth spot to add some speed in the middle of lineup and also get on base for the batters later on in the lineup.

6. Ty Wigginton/ Jim Thome

I would have either Wigginton or Thome in the sixth spot, whoever is playing first base that particular day always batting in the sixth spot. Thome can not play every single day but when he does play he still has some power in him to put balls into the seats, Wigginton is a great player to have on your team because he can play every where and produce some hits, he is no Babe Ruth but his bat can make contact with the ball.

7. Freddy Galvis

Galvis was able to get his first career Major League hit two days ago against the Marlins, his double also scored two runs and that ended up being the only runs the Phillies scored in the ball game, hopefully this sparks some offense out of Galvis. Galvis has not proven a lot so far so that is why he bats 7th.

8. Carlos Ruiz

I would bat Ruiz 8th because he understands national league baseball, he understands how to try to turn over the lineup so the pitcher does not lead off the next inning. This is very important because if you can’t turn over the lineup your sure going to have a lot of first outs in the next inning over the season.

9. Pitcher

Other than Cliff Lee there is not a lot of pitchers who can hit the baseball.

I really don’t see this lineup produce much offense until Ryan Howard and Chase Utley are back, you kind of take for granted the offense until one of your big stars is out with injury and your offense is just sputtering around. I don’t know about you but for me watching this offense is one of the most frustrating things ever, they can never get the leadoff batter on base and it seems like all of the rallies so far this season have come with two outs, sure would be a lot more fun if we could get those same rallies with no outs and chalk up some more runs on the board, our pitching is going to have exactly no run support with Howard and Utley out.

But it is early in the season so maybe a miracle can still happen.

That is just me but if you would like to voice your opinion on what lineup you would like to see from the Phillies, feel free to post it in the comment section

Since I a) have a hard time keeping up with what's in the Phillies system at each position, and b) like having a single source to go to, I put together the table below. These are the current minor league assignments as I know them. I will fill in Williamsport and GCL as they’re available.

Rankings of the top 30 are from Phuture Phillies. Each name links to the player's BB-Reference page, and the column headings have links to the team pages (MiLB in 1st row, and BB-Ref in 2nd).

The intent is to update this throughout the season -- let me know if there is anything that doesn't look right.

last updated: 4/6/2012

	Rank, Name, Age (7/1/12)
	Lehigh Valley	Reading	Clearwater	Lakewood	Williamsport	Gulf Coast League
	AAA	AA	A+	A	short season A	Rookie
C	Kratz 32	6) VALLE 21	Rupp 23	Hill 23
	Gosewisch 28	Lerud 27	Lafrenz 25	Moore 21
			Stumpo 24
1B	Overbeck 26	Ruf 25	Murphy 26	Dugan 21
2B	Frandsen 30	18) HERNANDEZ 22	Cartwright 24	Perdomo 22
		H Garcia 25-DL	Asche 22
SS	Blanco 28	Abreu 27	Duran 21	24) T GREENE 19	10) QUINN 19
		Hanzawa 26		Gonzalez 21
3B	Luna 32	Hulett 29	Barnes 25	9) FRANCO 19	27) MARTINEZ 22	20) WALDING 19
	Thurston 32	Kennelly 25	Alonso 24	Hillman 23
LF	BROWN 24	16) JAMES 23	Myers 23	21) POINTER 20		15) L GREENE 19
		Spidale 30	Alvarez 22	Collier 21
CF	Mitchell 25	13) GILLIES 23	Lavin 24	30) ALTHERR 21		26) TOCCI 16
	Thompson 33			Hudson 21
RF	Montanez 30	29) CASTRO 23	Hewitt 23	Eldemire 23
	Podsednik 36		Tripp 27
DH		Susdorf 26		Duffy 24
SP	12) HYATT (R) 26	2) MAY (R) 22	1) BIDDLE (L) 20	23) GILES (R ) 21
	Cochran (L) 29	3) PETTIBONE (R) 21	4) COLVIN (R) 21	25) MANZANILLO (L) 20
	Elarton (R) 36	14) RODRIGUEZ (R) 21	11) BONILLA (R) 22	Martinez (L) 19
	Bush (R) 32	Buchanan (R) 23	17) WRIGHT (L) 22	Morgado (L) 23
	Misch (L) 30	Cloyd (R) 25	19) GARNER (R) 23	Kleven (R) 21
			28) MORGAN (L) 22	Stewart (L) 21
RP	22) SCHWIMER (R) 26	JC Ramirez (R) 23	Claypool (R) 23	Nesseth (R) 24
	8) AUMONT (R) 23	Rosenberg (R) 26	Gailey (L) 26	Duke (R) 23
	7) De FRATUS (R) 24-DL	Brummett (R) 27	Knigge (R) 23	Arias (R) 22
	Purcey (L) 30	Cisco (R) 25	Neris (R) 23	Shreve (R) 24
	Sanches (R) 33	Friend (R) 26	Sosa (R) 22
	Horst (L) 26	Kissock (R) 27	Whatcott (R) 27
	Valdes (L) 34
	Diekman (L) 25
Majors: 5) GALVIS 23

Achilles is known mostly for being the great Greek warrior of the Trojan War but there is a little more to the story.

Achilles was born the son of King Peleus and the sea nymph Thetis. To make her son immortal, Thetis dipped Achilles into the River Styx as a child. With this, Achilles became immortal with one exception, his heel by which his mother held him during the dipping.

After some time, Achilles finally met his fate. Apollo shot Achilles with a poison arrow in the one place where he was vulnerable, his heel (Hunter, 2005).

Will the Phillies be able to recover from the injury arrow this season?

This is part 1 of a 3 part series talking about the injuries to Howard, Utley, and the overall state of the Phillies in 2012. Will Howard come back? Will he make a difference if he does? Will Chase come back? Will he retire? Will the Phillies get to the World Series?

This series will attempt to answer these questions and more.

What we know:

Ryan Howard working out to rehab his injury.

“Look, I have got a rule, As an intelligence officer, your responsibility is to tell me what you know. Tell me what you don't know. Then you're allowed to tell me what you think. But you always keep those three separated.”

-Colin Powell

Ryan Howard is indefinitely on the disabled list. Originally the Phillies were hoping The Big Piece would be back before June but as of today, that seems highly unlikely

"I'm going to continue down the path I'm on," he said. "As a competitor, you want to be on the field, but you've got to take care of your body. You've got to make sure you're good. When I'm 110 percent sure this thing is healed and I don't have to think about making a cut, I'll be back” (Zolecki, 2012 ).

In the beginning of Spring Training, Howard had a setback. He remained in a surgical boot, which he has worn, since having surgery to clear up an infection. Howard was shut down 2½ weeks ago because he needed a procedure to remove an infection near his surgically repaired Achilles tendon. Howard was just cleared to start light exercises, but there is no timetable for his return.

"When the wound gets healed over enough for him to take the boot off, that's what we'll do," Philadelphia general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. told MLB.com

Apparently, that time is now. Howard has been cleared to exercise without the boot.

As of a couple days ago, per the Mike Missanelli show on 975 The Fanatic, Howard was seen doing baseball exercises on a stool, without his boot. Apparently, Howard has been cleared to throw away the boot but his surgical wound is not fully healed. According to Howard, he does not see this as a setback. He was even chummy as he spoke to reporters and seemed in good spirits.

Mikey Miss reported that The Big Piece has been working out on a stool without his cast.

“Mentally I am fine I am out here joking with you guys……My biggest thing is just making sure it is 100%” said Howard, after being asked about a return date by reporters. Ryan should be cautious because Achilles tendon ruptures are not to be taken lightly.

Since the Achilles is the largest and the strongest tendon, it is also the hardest tendon to heal after an injury. The tendon attaches the big calf muscle to the back of the heel bone, also known as the calcaneus. When the calf muscle contracts, the tendon allows you to point your foot and stand tiptoe. The tendon is essential to run and walk (Wishnie, Dr. Peter A., 2011).

There was a medical study, done over the course of 5 years studying 31 NFL players who have suffered Achilles’ Tears. Some highlights from the study are as follows:

• The average age of the players at the time of injury was 29
• The average career length at the time of injury was six years
• 1/3 of players studied never played in the NFL again
• Affected players’ production steeply declined over 3 post-rehab seasons
• Those players who returned did so after an average of 11 months out

(Shirzad, Khalid MD, 2010)

Keep in mind it has been only 5 months since Howard has had his injury.

What is the Phillies offense missing without Ryan Howard?

Babe Ruth has the all time leading OPS with 1.164

Some assumptions:

1. 35 home runs and 100 RBIs connote a very good offensive season.
2. The OPS of a good player is considered to be around .900 to .950.
3. An OPS of 1.000 is generally the high standard for an exceptional player.
4. An OPS of 1.000 or higher is scored by the baseball greats.

(Source: wisegeek.com)

Howard By the Numbers Since 2006	RBI	HR	OPS
2006 (MVP Year)	149	58	1.084
2007	136	47	.976
2008	146	48	.882
2009	141	45	.931
2010	108	31	.858
2011	116	33	.834

(Source: baseball-reference.com)

A further look into Howard’s numbers:

As of today, according to baseball-reference.com, Howard is:

1. 44th on the all time list in OPS
2. 150th on the all time HR list
3. 383rd on the all time RBI list
4. 10th (tied) on the all time single season HR record with 58

Nota Bene - If you take Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire (steroid era) off the all time single season HR list Howard would be 5th.

Howard is no doubt a huge part of the Phillies offense. Period. The Phillies will have to get to 90+ wins, mostly without Howard. The question remains. Will they be able to do it?

What we don’t know:

“We tend to treat our knowledge as personal property to be protected and defended. It is an ornament that allows us to rise in the pecking order…we take what we know a little too seriously.”

-Nassim Taleb

There are a variety of variables which are out of our control; some of which are controllable by the surgeon, Howard himself, and therapists. For example: his physical conditioning, overall health, mental makeup, genetic ability to: heal properly, overcome injury and fight infection. As Colin Powell said, one cannot come to a proper conclusion until one unearths what one does not know.

Some questions to ask oneself:

Was the surgery performed well?

Were there any mistakes during the surgery?

Are the therapists optimizing Howard’s recovery?

What is the probability of another setback?

How will Howard deal with the injury in the back of his mind every time he pushes off from his injured foot?

Will the Phillies offense be able to stay afloat without Howard?

When Howard comes back will he produce enough to help the Phillies make a playoff run this year?

Will the Phillies pitching staff be able to carry them through 2012?

These and innumerable other questions should be asked to have a better understanding of Howard’s and the Phillies current situation. These intangible variables will have an effect on the outcome of the Phillies season and World Series aspirations.

What I Think:

“Opinion is the medium between knowledge and ignorance.”

- Plato

After delving into Howard’s injury in greater depth by means of taking into account that which we know and that which we do not; there is one very obvious conclusion to make.

The unknown variables have increased so greatly and additionally the margin for error has shrunk so much that the Phillies probability for a 90+ win season has plummeted. Is it too early to panic? As Ryan Howard would say, “We’ll see.”

The hope for a World Series has just gotten that much more difficult; every Phillies fan should be cautiously optimistic; especially because this is new territory for the Phils.

According to MLB.com, The Phillies have played 1,054 regular-season games since Howard became their everyday first baseman on July 2, 2005, but they have played just 21 games without Howard and Utley on the field at the same time.

Rollins stated: It feels like Spring Training out there when you look around and nobody's there," Rollins said. "Especially [Monday], I was looking around like, 'This is what I have to get used to.' Just different people. It's a little uncomfortable” (Zolecki, 2012 ).

Maybe we are all being overly negative. Maybe Howard will come back sooner then we think. Well, maybe not.

It has only been 5 months since Howard’s injury. The fact that pops out from the medical journal: “It takes 11 months on AVERAGE to recover from an Achilles tear!” They were NFL players; who are generally in much better shape than baseball players and much better athletes. A third of these players never played again.

Look for Howard to be thinking long term. He certainly would not want to jeopardize a possible Hall of Fame career to rush back for one shortened season. When he does come back look for him to not help the team as much as previously thought offensively and possibly become a liability defensively.

Therefore, Howard will be back in August, if at all.

Will the Phillies be able to win another World Series in 2012 without major help from Ryan Howard?

I just do not see him coming back this season and making a big difference. The Phillies have been shot with an injury arrow in the one place where vulnerable, their age; and, like Achilles, they may not be able to fully recover.

If you like this post please visit my blog at: Philadelphia Sports Blog. Thank You.

Works Cited:

1. Shirzad, K., Hewitt, M. J., Kiesau, M. C., MD;., Parekh, S. G., MD., et al. (n.d.). (2010, March)Return to football after Achilles tendon rupture | Lower Extremity Review Magazine. Lower Extremity Review Magazine - biomechanics, foot orthotics, knee pain, insoles, diabetic footwear, ankle braces. Retrieved March 27, 2012, from http://www.lowerextremityreview.com/article/return-to-football-after-achilles-tendon-rupture
2. Wishnie, D. P. (2011, September 8). Foot and Ankle Pain: As Does Ryan Howard’s Achilles Tendon Goes Pop, so Does the Phillies Season. Foot and Ankle Pain. Retrieved March 27, 2012, from http://stopfootpainfast.blogspot.com/2011/10/as-does-ryan-howards-achilles-tendon.html
3. Weiner, T. (2007, December 9). Pssst: Some Hope for Spycraft - New York Times. NY Times Advertisement. Retrieved March 27, 2012, from http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/09/weekinreview/09weiner.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&pagewanted=all
4. Zolecki / MLB.com | , (2012, March 20). Phillies slugger Ryan Howard believes teammates will step up in his absence | MLB.com: News. The Official Site of Major League Baseball | MLB.com: Homepage. Retrieved March 27, 2012, from http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120320&content_id=27443030
5. Hunter, J. (1997, March 3). Achilles. Encyclopedia Mythica: mythology, folklore, and religion.. Retrieved March 27, 2012, from http://www.pantheon.org/articles/a/achilles
6. mlb.com
7. wisegeek.com

Hi, it’s ZWR, from I Want to Go to the Zoo with Roy Halladay, the world’s foremost blog about wanting to go to the zoo with Philadelphia Phillies pitcher, 2010 Cy Young Award Winner, defending Amazon basin anaconda wrestling champion, and all-around awesomehead Harry Leroy Halladay III (visit us online at www.zoowithroy.com). When the kindly dorks at The Good Phight approached me with the prospect of writing a season preview for Doc, I was a little taken aback. It’s pretty daunting to be given the challenge of prognosticating a given.

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via Red Horse Tutoring

It was but a month ago when you reported to camp for Spring Training, a gaggle of wet-behind-the ears, My Little Pony backpack wearing rookies, hungry prospects and wily veterans. During this month, under the watchful eye of coaches Wet Luzinski, Phrozen and TwistyWristy, you've added new picks to your repertoire and perhaps most importantly, gained more control over your dart throwing. With opening day less than 24 hours away, the time has come to find out whether you've got the right stuff to crack the opening day roster, whether you'll be sent down to the Psychic Hotline league to work on your prognosticating or if unfortunately, you've been cut from the team.

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To the wise and merciful Lord, BaseBa’al, Defender of the Game,

We implore thee to reserve thy ultimate judgment and reprisal from the Philadelphia Phillies Baseball Franchise and the members thereof.

We ask of thee to leadeth their grounders into safety, to increaseth the luck of the BABIP with their line drives, and for their fly balls to saileth into the Promised Land of the Garden of Eden in Center Field and Ashburn Alley. May their swings be productive and their balls be plentiful and may your many followers in the bleachers surrounding the outfield acquireth multiple souvenirs during this long continued Run of Plenty.

We humbly entreat thee to allow the hurlers of our Beloved Franchise to continue missing the bats of their enemies while never missing the hands of their catchers who are in the finest tradition of the Tribes of Bob Boone. May their BABIP be continuously lowered along with all flyballs and grounders finding their way into the dependable hands of thy faithful servants in the luscious green grass and curated dirt.

We beseech of thee to prevent injury and to permit a rapid revivification of those who have momentarily left us, especially the one called The Big Piece and the one called YATM. We once again pleadeth with thee to lift the Curse of Second Base away from this Team forevermore.

We ask thee to protect and guide both the decisions of Charles F. Manuel and Ruben Amaro, Junior. Leadeth Charlie away from the folly of multiple Juan Pierre appearances and Ruben to maketh the correct call on the one called Hollywood and on any potential acquisition he may maketh in the middle of the Battle of 2012.

Finally, we deferentially propose the following petitions for thy compassionate deliberation:

For Many Victories
For the Scoring of Many Runs
For Above Replacement Production in the First Two Months
For Plentiful Pinch Hits
For the Ease of Jonathan Papelbon Saves
For the Perpetuation of the Open Window
For Another 100 Wins
For the Smiting of Our Enemies
For Another Division Title and Pennant
For Another World F*cking Championship

We ask all of these things in thy just and forgiving name, O wise BaseBa’al.

Amen.